In H1 2026, the overseas bauxite market was generally characterized by high shipment levels, growing imports, a year-on-year decline in prices but a recovery within the year, stronger policy disturbances, and rising energy and freight costs. In particular, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices and dry bulk freight rates, becoming an important cost-side factor supporting Guinea bauxite CIF China prices. On the supply side, bauxite shipments from Guinea’s major ports maintained significant year-on-year growth, making Guinea the core source of overseas bauxite supply increments. Australian shipments were generally stable, although local weather disruptions in March caused a temporary decline in shipments from major ports. In terms of domestic import structure, as June customs import data by country has not yet been released, this article mainly observes import changes from January to May 2026. Data shows that domestic bauxite imports continued to grow year-on-year during January-May 2026, with the source structure becoming increasingly concentrated in Guinea. On the price side, imported bauxite prices in H1 2026 were significantly lower than the same period in 2025, but prices did not continue to decline throughout the year. Since March, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed up international oil prices and dry bulk freight costs, leading to a significant increase in Guinea bauxite CIF China prices. Around the Labour Day holiday and again in mid-to-late June, market rumours repeatedly suggested that the Guinean government might introduce bauxite export quota-related policies. Although no such policies were officially implemented within the expected timeframe, these rumours disrupted the transaction pace between buyers and sellers and provided support to forward price expectations. At the same time, after the Chinese New Year holiday, imported bauxite raw material inventories at domestic alumina refineries remained at elevated levels, while port inventories of imported bauxite continued to accumulate after March and throughout H1, limiting further upside in spot prices. Overall, the overseas bauxite market in H1 2026 did not face an absolute shortage. Instead, it showed a pattern of relatively loose physical supply but tightening expectations from costs and policy risks. High Guinean shipments supported arrivals of imported bauxite in the domestic market, but the high concentration of domestic import sources in Guinea also made the market more sensitive to Guinean policy changes, rainy-season shipment disruptions, freight rate fluctuations, and changes in long-term contract prices. Price: Still Low YoY, but CIF Prices Recovered in Stages During the Year According to SMM data, in January-June 2026, the average SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index stood at around $66.37/mt, down around 26.0% from the same period in 2025. The average Guinea bauxite CIF China price was around $65.88/mt, down around 25.8% year-on-year. The average Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF China price was around $56.93/mt, down around 23.0% year-on-year. The average Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF China price was around $61.63/mt, down around 24.1% year-on-year. From a year-on-year perspective, imported bauxite prices in H1 2026 remained significantly below the same period last year. However, from an intra-year perspective, imported bauxite prices first declined and then recovered. In early January, the SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index was around $68.35/mt, while Guinea bauxite CIF China was around $67.5/mt. By late February, Guinea bauxite CIF China had once fallen to around $60/mt. After entering March, rising oil prices and freight costs amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up the landed cost of Guinea bauxite delivered to China. On March 2, Guinea bauxite CIF China was around $62/mt; by March 20, it had risen to $66.5/mt, and by the end of March it further increased to $68.5/mt. It is worth noting that in March, the increase in Guinea CIF prices was significantly greater than the change in FOB prices. SMM data shows that Guinea bauxite FOB was around $37.5/mt on March 2, rose to $38.5/mt on March 20, and remained near $38.5/mt at the end of March. Over the same period, the Guinea CIF-FOB spread widened from around $24.5/mt to around $30/mt. Overall, the March increase in Guinea CIF prices was not entirely driven by mine-side quotations. Freight rates, energy costs, trading premiums, and forward supply risk expectations all provided support to landed prices. From late April to early May, the market heard rumours that the Guinean government might announce bauxite export quota-related policies during the Labour Day holiday. As a result, transaction activity between buyers and sellers slowed significantly, and the market turned cautious. In terms of price performance, Guinea bauxite CIF China remained largely stable at around $67.5/mt between April 24 and May 8, while the SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index also stayed near $67.52/mt. Prices mainly moved sideways and did not break out significantly. As no related policy was officially introduced during the Labour Day period, market transactions gradually recovered in mid-May, and Guinea bauxite CIF China edged up to around $68/mt. Entering June, Guinean policy expectations once again disturbed the market. Around the Dragon Boat Festival, market rumours again suggested that the Guinean government might introduce export quota-related policies between mid-June and early July. At the same time, market participants were waiting for the release of July long-term contract prices, causing buyers and sellers to turn cautious again. In terms of prices, Guinea bauxite CIF China rose from around $68/mt in early June to around $69.5/mt in mid-June, and further increased to around $71/mt by the end of June. For Guinea monthly long-term contract prices, the price stood at $67/mt in January 2026, fell to $62/mt in February, rebounded to $63/mt in March, remained at $70/mt from April to June, and further increased to $71/mt in July. The firm long-term contract price also provided certain support to the spot market. Shipments: Guinea Maintained High Growth, while Australia Saw a Temporary Weather-Related Decline in March Due to the limited disclosure frequency of overseas mine production data, this article uses weekly shipments from major ports as a reference indicator for observing overseas bauxite exportable supply trends. For monthly comparison, all monthly shipment data mentioned in this article is calculated by allocating weekly shipment data to corresponding months based on the proportion of calendar days. According to SMM statistics, in January-June 2026, bauxite shipments from Guinea’s major ports totalled around 115.1357 million mt, up around 26.5% from the same period in 2025. By month, shipments from Guinea’s major ports increased by around 40.2% YoY in January, 35.1% YoY in February, 28.7% YoY in March, 31.5% YoY in April, 10.9% YoY in May, and 13.5% YoY in June. Overall, Guinean shipments remained high in H1 and continued to serve as the main source of overseas bauxite supply growth. In terms of shipment structure, high Guinean shipments reflected continued release of mine and port export capacity, while also supporting high arrivals of imported bauxite in the domestic market. At the same time, Guinea’s rising share in the domestic import structure means that the market has become increasingly sensitive to local policy changes, weather conditions, port operations, and shipping conditions. For Australia, bauxite shipments from major ports totalled around 21.6586 million mt in January-June 2026, down around 3.7% year-on-year. Overall performance was relatively stable, but its incremental supply elasticity was weaker than Guinea’s. Australia’s shipments fell notably in March, mainly due to local weather disruptions and related natural events. Weekly data shows that Australian bauxite shipments from major ports declined significantly during March, with shipments from Weipa falling to a low level in late March. After entering April, shipments from Australia’s major ports recovered quickly. This indicates that the weather disruption had more of a temporary impact on shipments rather than representing a sustained supply contraction. Import Structure: Domestic Imports Grew YoY in January-May, with Guinea’s Dominance Further Strengthened On the import side, as June customs import data by country has not yet been released, this article mainly observes domestic bauxite import changes in January-May 2026. According to customs data, domestic bauxite imports totalled around 100.7579 million mt in January-May 2026, up around 18.6% from 84.9571 million mt in the same period of 2025. By country, domestic imports from Guinea reached around 82.5716 million mt in January-May 2026, up around 24.9% from 66.1231 million mt in the same period of 2025. Guinea accounted for around 82.0% of total domestic bauxite imports, up from around 77.8% in the same period last year. This shows that Guinea remained the largest source of domestic imported bauxite, while its dominance in the import structure further strengthened. Australia remained the second-largest source of domestic bauxite imports. In January-May 2026, domestic imports from Australia stood at around 14.4914 million mt, up around 8.2% from 13.3929 million mt in the same period of 2025. However, Australia’s share of total domestic bauxite imports stood at around 14.4%, lower than around 15.8% in the same period last year. Overall, Australian supply remained stable, but its share in the domestic import structure was significantly lower than Guinea’s, and its short-term incremental supply elasticity was relatively limited. Among non-mainstream sources, domestic imports from Sierra Leone reached around 1.0353 million mt in January-May 2026, marking a significant year-on-year increase. Imports from Guyana reached around 747,200 mt, up slightly year-on-year, while imports from Türkiye reached around 559,100 mt, down significantly year-on-year. Overall, non-mainstream sources provided supplementary supply in certain months, but in terms of supply scale, stability, quality compatibility, and logistics conditions, they remain unable to substantially replace Guinea in the short term. From a monthly perspective, domestic bauxite imports remained high in January-May 2026. Imports stood at around 19.2528 million mt in January, 16.9530 million mt in February, 21.7789 million mt in March, 19.7433 million mt in April, and further increased to around 23.0298 million mt in May. May imports were at a high level, with imports from Guinea reaching around 19.6074 million mt and imports from Australia around 3.0259 million mt. High Guinean shipments in earlier periods and continued demand for imported ore from domestic coastal alumina refineries jointly supported import growth. Inventory and Transactions: High Inventories Suppressed Spot Procurement, while Policy Expectations Disrupted Transaction Pace In terms of inventories, according to SMM surveys, imported bauxite raw material inventories at domestic alumina refineries remained at elevated levels after the Chinese New Year holiday. Meanwhile, after geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated in March, domestic port inventories of imported bauxite continued to accumulate throughout H1. With relatively sufficient inventory buffers, downstream alumina refineries had limited acceptance of high-priced spot cargoes. Procurement was mainly conducted on a need-to basis, while some enterprises preferred to observe policy changes, freight rates, and long-term contract price movements before restocking. High inventories also explain a key contradiction in price movements during H1. On the one hand, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up energy and freight costs, while repeated Guinean policy expectations disturbed market sentiment and supported imported bauxite prices. On the other hand, elevated inventories at alumina refineries and ports meant that spot procurement did not see sustained concentrated buying, and acceptance of high-priced cargoes remained limited, thereby restricting further price upside. Around the Labour Day holiday, the market heard rumours that the Guinean government might announce bauxite export quota-related policies during the holiday period. Transactions between buyers and sellers weakened significantly, and the market entered a wait-and-see mode. As no related policy was officially introduced within the expected timeframe, market transactions gradually recovered after mid-May, but prices only saw a mild recovery. In mid-to-late June, the market again heard rumours that Guinea might introduce quota-related policies between mid-June and early July. Together with uncertainty around July long-term contract prices, transaction activity became cautious again. Therefore, the impact of Guinean policy expectations in H1 2026 was reflected more in transaction pace and price expectations, rather than simply driving a sustained rapid increase in spot prices. Major Events: Cost Disturbances, Australian Weather, and Guinean Policy Expectations Ran Through H1 The major events in the overseas bauxite market in H1 2026 can be divided into three main lines. First, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East in March pushed up oil prices and dry bulk freight costs, driving a rapid recovery in Guinea bauxite CIF China prices. As the Guinea-China route is long, freight rate movements have a significant impact on landed costs. From March to June, Guinea-China bauxite freight rates remained high, once rising to around $36/mt, and fluctuated within a high range. At the same time, persistently high oil prices also pushed up transportation and export costs at Guinean mines. Some mines faced pressure on export margins, and market feedback suggested that some mines reduced shipments in stages or controlled shipment pace during May-June to ease cost pressure. Second, Australia saw a temporary decline in shipments from major ports in March due to local weather disruptions. After allocating weekly shipment data to months based on calendar days, Australian bauxite shipments from major ports stood at around 2.5339 million mt in March, down around 38.8% year-on-year. Among them, shipments from Weipa fell notably in late March. Shipments recovered quickly after entering April, indicating that the disruption was more of a short-term event and had limited impact on the full-year supply structure. Third, Guinean export quota policy expectations repeatedly disturbed the market. Around the Labour Day holiday, market rumours suggested that the Guinean government might announce export quota-related policies, leading to weaker transactions and sideways price movements. However, no such policy was eventually introduced, and market transactions gradually recovered after mid-May. In mid-to-late June, the market again heard rumours that the Guinean government might introduce quota-related policies between mid-June and early July. Together with the pending release of July long-term contract prices, prices again remained firm. Although the policy has not yet been officially implemented, the market has become significantly more sensitive to such news amid the high dependence of domestic imported bauxite on Guinea. Full-Year Outlook: Guinean Policy Risk and Freight Cost Disturbances Continue to Support Forward Price Expectations Looking ahead to H2 2026, the core contradiction in the overseas bauxite market is expected to continue revolving around Guinean policy changes, rainy-season shipments, and freight cost fluctuations. If shipments from Guinea’s major ports remain relatively stable as seen in early July, and Guinea-China freight rates continue to fall, imported bauxite supply is still expected to remain relatively sufficient. Domestic alumina refinery and port inventories may also remain elevated, limiting further upside in spot prices. However, on the risk side, current market rumours still suggest that the Guinean government may introduce bauxite export quota-related policies in H2 2026. If such policies are officially implemented and impose substantial constraints on local mine shipment schedules, Guinean bauxite supply elasticity may be affected, thereby supporting imported bauxite prices. Meanwhile, as Guinea gradually enters its traditional rainy season, mining, inland transportation, and port loading may all face temporary disruptions. Based on historical rainy-season performance, Guinean shipments may decline in certain months, affecting domestic arrival schedules and port inventory digestion. In terms of freight rates, Middle East developments still showed potential for volatility in early July, and the previous easing expectations still require further observation. If geopolitical risks rise again, oil prices and dry bulk freight costs may increase once more. Guinea-China bauxite freight rates may rebound from the current range of around $30-32/mt to $36/mt or even higher, pushing imported bauxite CIF prices higher again. Conversely, if the Middle East situation continues to ease and oil prices and freight rates decline further, Guinea-China freight rates may fall below $30/mt. In that case, some Guinean mines that previously reduced shipments or controlled shipment pace may resume shipments, and market transaction activity may recover. On prices, overseas bauxite prices in H2 are expected to remain constrained on both the upside and downside. On the upside, elevated raw material inventories at domestic alumina refineries and port inventories will limit acceptance of high-priced spot cargoes. If actual supply does not shrink significantly, the momentum for a sustained sharp price increase may be limited. On the downside, Guinean policy expectations, rainy-season disruptions, freight volatility, long-term contract price support, and import source concentration risks all mean that imported bauxite prices lack the basis for a sharp decline. In H2 2026, the market needs to closely monitor whether Guinean export policies are officially implemented, the actual impact of the rainy season on local mines and port shipments, Guinea-China freight rate movements, July and subsequent long-term contract price adjustments, and domestic port inventory digestion. If Guinean shipments remain high and port inventories continue to accumulate, the upside elasticity of imported bauxite prices may remain limited. However, if policy implementation tightens, rainy-season disruptions exceed expectations, or freight rates rise again, Guinea bauxite CIF China prices may still receive periodic support. Conclusion Overall, the overseas bauxite market in H1 2026 was characterized by high shipments, growing imports, a year-on-year price decline but intra-year recovery, and stronger policy disturbances. Guinean shipments increased significantly year-on-year, supporting high domestic bauxite import volumes. Australian shipments recovered after a temporary weather-related decline in March, and overall supply remained relatively stable. In terms of import structure, domestic bauxite imports increased by around 18.6% year-on-year in January-May 2026. Among them, imports from Guinea increased by around 24.9% year-on-year, with its share rising further to around 82.0%, indicating that domestic imported bauxite reliance on Guinea continued to increase. On the price side, imported bauxite prices in H1 2026 were significantly lower than the same period in 2025. However, prices recovered during the year amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising oil and freight costs, Guinean export quota policy expectations, and long-term contract price support. At the same time, elevated raw material inventories at alumina refineries after the Chinese New Year holiday and continued port inventory accumulation after March limited further upside in spot prices. Looking ahead, the overseas bauxite market does not lack absolute supply, but the supply structure is highly concentrated. Price volatility is increasingly driven by policy, logistics, freight, and risk premiums rather than a simple supply-demand gap. In H2, Guinean policy implementation, rainy-season shipments, freight rate movements, long-term contract price adjustments, and domestic port inventory digestion will be key factors affecting overseas bauxite prices and import structure changes.

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 7.06 Futures: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2609 futures contract bottomed out and rebounded, hitting a low of 2,705 yuan/mt before staging a strong rebound, eventually closing at 2,820 yuan/mt, edging up 1 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The daily candlestick formed a bullish candlestick with a long lower shadow, indicating strong support at the 2,700 yuan/mt level. From a moving averages perspective, the current price at 2,820 yuan/mt has risen above MA5 (2748.2) and MA40 (2815.55), but remains under resistance from MA10 (2790.8) and MA20 (2839.3). The short-term moving averages (MA5/MA10) are in a bearish alignment, while the medium-term MA20 still forms resistance above, indicating a tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The price oscillated around MA40. If it breaks through the MA20 (2839.3) resistance on high volume, it is expected to open up upside room; conversely, if it repeatedly fails to break through, caution is needed for a pullback to test the MA5 (2748.2) support. Overall, the futures show a consolidating pattern of 'bottoming out to confirm support while resistance persists above.' The short-term directional move will depend on volume confirmation and the battle at MA20. Ore market: As of July 3, 2026, the SMM Imported Bauxite Index was reported at $70.11/mt, up $0.13/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea FOB average price was $39/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $71/mt, flat; the SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $64/mt, flat; the SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $58.5/mt, flat; the Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was $52/mt, flat; the Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was $62.5/mt, flat; the Ghanaian bauxite CIF price was $78/mt, flat; the Turkish bauxite CFR price was $76/mt, down $2.5/mt from the previous Friday. Overall, for domestic ore, mine operations in Shanxi, Henan and other regions have recovered somewhat, and combined with falling alumina prices, sentiment among alumina refineries to push for lower raw material prices has strengthened, causing domestic ore prices to decline from earlier levels. As of July 2, in Shanxi, the EXW crushing plant price of bauxite with Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and alumina content of 60%, excluding VAT, was around 530-550 yuan/mt, with the average price up 10 yuan/mt MoM; in Henan, similar bauxite with Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and 60% alumina content, EXW crushing plant price, excluding VAT, was around 500-540 yuan/mt, with the average price up 20 yuan/mt MoM; in Guiyang, bauxite with Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 60% alumina content, EXW price including VAT, was at 490-540 yuan/mt, with the average price up 20 yuan/mt MoM; in Guangxi, bauxite with Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 53% alumina content, EXW crushing plant price excluding VAT, was at 320-335 yuan/mt. Imported ore side, uncertainties around Guinea’s July long-term contract prices and quota policies, combined with the traditional rainy season, prompted some mines to control shipments, lending some support to ore prices. Meanwhile, alumina refineries in China still held high inventories (equivalent to around 95 days), which limited their purchase willingness, and the tug-of-war over offer/bid prices between buyers and sellers persisted. In the short term, ore prices are expected to consolidate at highs. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the implementation of Guinea’s bauxite quota policy and the trend of ocean freight rates. Spot Prices: As of July 3, 2026, the SMM alumina index was at 2,773.71 yuan/mt, down 0.94 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,791.91 yuan/mt, down 0.34 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,818.66 yuan/mt, down 1.73 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,829.98 yuan/mt, down 1.99 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,747.77 yuan/mt, down 1.59 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,674.59 yuan/mt, down 0.80 yuan/mt MoM. Daily Spot-Futures Spread: According to SMM data, on July 3, the SMM alumina index stood at a premium of 47.71 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract’s latest traded price at 11:30 a.m. Warrant Daily: On July 3, total registered alumina warrants increased by 6,312 mt from the previous trading day to 271,600 mt. In Shandong, total registered alumina warrants remained flat at 32,417 mt; in Henan, they held steady at 17,698 mt; in Guangxi, they were unchanged at 8,429 mt; in Gansu, they stayed flat at 11,704 mt; in Xinjiang, they rose by 6,312 mt to 201,300 mt. Markets outside China: As of July 3, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $330/mt, the ocean freight rate was $32.30/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate stood near 6.79. This translates to a selling price of approximately 2,863.50 yuan/mt at major Chinese ports, 89.79 yuan/mt above the SMM alumina index. Summary: Total alumina inventory in China edged up MoM, with relatively small overall changes. Breaking it down, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters declined, mainly because some smelters actively reduced high-priced in-factory inventories amid elevated spot alumina prices, leading to lower raw material stockpiling. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries edged up, as maintenance-related production cuts in Shanxi were offset by output increases in south China, resulting in limited overall changes. At ports, new vessels arrived successively, increasing port inventory. Warrant inventory trended downwards as the willingness to deliver to delivery warehouses waned due to invoice issuance issues and the spot-futures price spread. Inventory in transit and at yard stocks accumulated, mainly because warrants gradually matured and converted into spot cargoes, coupled with continued shipments from Guangxi, resulting in an increase in in-transit cargoes. The operational landscape for alumina is expected to see relatively small changes this week. Some enterprises using domestic ore may schedule maintenance due to ore supply-side issues, but the impact on monthly production will be limited, and overall inventory levels are expected to remain at current levels. On the price front, as the regional alumina mismatch problem gradually eases, the spot price center is likely to pull back, with the subsequent trend coming under pressure [All data other than publicly available information is derived from public data, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference purposes only and does not constitute any decision-making advice.]

According to data on June 19, bauxite port departures at Guinea's main ports totaled 3.79 million mt, up 2.3% MoM, but the weekly average port departures in June to date were down 8.2% from May; bauxite port departures at Australia's main ports totaled 1.23 million mt, up 13.5% MoM.

SMM June 6, Guinea bauxite port shipments grew 28.7%-40.2% YoY in January-April, with daily dispatch rates rising to 62.7-71.7 mt/day, reflecting robust capacity expansion. However, May shipments fell to just 1,749.6 mt, plunging 21.1% MoM, with daily rates dropping to 56.4 mt/day and YoY growth narrowing to 10.9%. Key driver: elevated freight rates at approximately USD 36/t pushed mine costs above selling prices, forcing voluntary shipment cuts under loss-making pressure. Entering June, mine cost pressures show no significant easing. Combined with market expectations that Guinea's bauxite export quota policy will be promulgated and the impending onset of the rainy season, bauxite shipment volumes may decline further. Driven by supply reduction expectations and cost support, recent Guinea bauxite CIF prices have edged up, with 45/3 grade actual transactions settling around USD 70/t. In the near term, high domestic bauxite inventories and elevated Guinea bauxite costs are expected to continue weighing against each other. Close attention should be paid to the implementation of Guinea's bauxite policy, which is anticipated to add further upward momentum to bauxite prices upon rollout.

Imported Bauxite Prices As of May 25, 2026, SMM overseas bauxite prices were generally stable with slight upward movement. Supported by rising energy and seaborne freight costs, prices of some imported bauxite cargoes edged up. However, domestic alumina refineries maintained relatively high raw material inventories, while downstream acceptance of high-priced resources remained limited. Market transactions were mainly driven by rigid demand. Among them, the SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index (converted to 45/3 grade) stood at $67.61/mt, up $0.09/mt MoM, with the monthly price range at $67.52-67.85/mt. By product, Guinea bauxite FOB price (converted to 45/3 grade) stood at $38/mt, flat MoM, with prices remaining largely stable since the beginning of May. Guinea bauxite CIF price (converted to 45/3 grade) stood at $68/mt, up $0.05/mt MoM, with the monthly price range at $67-68/mt. Australia bauxite CIF price (49-50/6-7 grade) stood at $62/mt, while Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF price (51-52/8-10 grade) stood at $56.50/mt, both flat MoM. Türkiye bauxite CFR price (54/6 grade) stood at $78.50/mt, up $2.50/mt MoM, rising from $76/mt to $78.50/mt during the month. Malaysia bauxite CIF price (37-41/5-6 grade) stood at $52/mt, Malaysia washed bauxite CIF price (37-41/5-6 grade) stood at $62.50/mt, and Ghana bauxite CIF price (47-51/5-6 grade) stood at $78/mt, with prices remaining stable during the month. Bauxite Imports and Exports According to customs data, China imported 19.743 million mt of bauxite in April 2026, down 9.4% MoM and 4.6% YoY. From January to April 2026, China’s cumulative bauxite imports reached 77.728 million mt, up 14.7% YoY. By country, China imported 16.423 million mt of bauxite from Guinea in April 2026, down 9.4% MoM and 1.9% YoY. From January to April 2026, China’s cumulative bauxite imports from Guinea reached 62.964 million mt, up 18.5% YoY. Guinea remained the major source of China’s bauxite imports. In terms of shipments, as of May 22, the average daily bauxite shipment volume from major Guinean ports fell to 559,000 mt/day, down around 21.8% MoM. Taking into account the shipping schedule transmission period, domestic bauxite arrivals are expected to gradually decline from late June, with a relatively significant decrease in domestic bauxite arrivals expected in July. Market Impact Factors In May 2026, overseas bauxite prices were mainly affected by three factors: expectations surrounding Guinea’s export policy, rising energy and seaborne freight costs, and the restraint on procurement appetite caused by high bauxite inventories at domestic alumina refineries. First, Guinea’s bauxite export quota policy remained a key market focus. Earlier, market rumours suggested that the Guinean government might implement a bauxite export quota policy around the May Day holiday, which could support Guinea bauxite prices by restricting shipment volumes. However, as the relevant policy has yet to be officially implemented, its marginal impact on market sentiment has weakened. Market participants have also become less active in pricing and stockpiling based on this factor. Second, rising energy and seaborne freight costs provided some support for overseas bauxite prices. Affected by geopolitical disruptions, international oil prices remained at high levels, pushing up mine land transportation, seaborne freight, and production operating costs. According to SMM survey, freight rates from Guinea to China rose from around $34/wmt in April to $36-37.5/wmt during May, significantly lifting shipment costs for mines and traders. Against the backdrop of increasing cost pressure, some mines and traders saw weaker shipment enthusiasm, while the market also observed a slowdown in shipment pace. Third, raw material inventories at domestic alumina refineries remained relatively high, limiting their acceptance of high-priced imported bauxite. Currently, bauxite inventories at domestic alumina refineries generally remain above three months. Downstream procurement is mainly based on rigid demand, while willingness to chase high-priced resources remains weak. Although some long-term contract prices for Guinea-to-China cargoes were around $70/mt in May, SMM survey showed that some downstream alumina refineries’ intended procurement prices for spot cargoes were still concentrated around $65-67/mt, indicating that the price gap between buyers and sellers remained significant. Price Outlook On the supply side, energy and seaborne freight costs remain high, providing certain support for overseas bauxite prices. Meanwhile, the phased decline in shipment volumes from major Guinean ports may gradually transmit to China’s arrival volume. On the demand side, bauxite inventories at domestic alumina refineries remain relatively sufficient, and the likelihood of a sharp increase in their procurement price expectations in the short term is limited. The price negotiation between buyers and sellers remains relatively evident. SMM expects overseas bauxite prices to fluctuate at high levels in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in Guinea shipments, seaborne freight trends, the pace of inventory consumption at domestic alumina refineries, and changes in procurement sentiment.

Imported Bauxite Prices As of May 25, 2026, ex-China bauxite prices generally remained stable with a slight upward trend. Affected by rising energy and ocean freight costs, some imported ore prices edged up. However, raw material inventory at China's alumina refineries stayed high, and downstream acceptance of high-priced resources was limited, with market transactions still dominated by just-in-time procurement. Among them, the SMM imported bauxite CIF index (converted to 45/3 grade) was quoted at $67.61/mt, up $0.09/mt MoM, with the monthly price range at $67.52-67.85/mt. By variety, Guinea bauxite FOB prices (converted to 45/3 grade) were quoted at $38/mt, flat MoM, with prices remaining stable since May. Guinea bauxite CIF prices (converted to 45/3 grade) were quoted at $68/mt, up $0.05/mt MoM, with the monthly price range at $67-68/mt. Australia bauxite CIF prices (49-50/6-7 grade) were quoted at $62/mt, and Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF prices (51-52/8-10 grade) were quoted at $56.5/mt, both flat MoM. Turkey bauxite CFR prices (54/6 grade) were quoted at $78.5/mt, up $2.5/mt MoM, with prices rising from $76/mt to $78.5/mt within the month. Malaysia bauxite CIF prices (37-41/5-6 grade) were quoted at $52/mt, Malaysia washed bauxite CIF prices (37-41/5-6 grade) were quoted at $62.5/mt, and Ghana bauxite CIF prices (47-51/5-6 grade) were quoted at $78/mt, all remaining stable within the month. Bauxite Imports and Exports Customs data showed that in April 2026, China imported 19.743 million mt of bauxite, down 9.4% MoM and down 4.6% YoY. From January to April 2026, China's cumulative bauxite imports totalled 77.728 million mt, up 14.7% YoY. By country, in April 2026, China imported 16.423 million mt of bauxite from Guinea, down 9.4% MoM and down 1.9% YoY. From January to April 2026, China's cumulative bauxite imports from Guinea totalled 62.964 million mt, up 18.5% YoY. Guinea remained the primary source country for China's bauxite imports. Shipment side, as of May 22, daily average bauxite shipments from Guinea's main ports fell to 559,000 mt/day, down approximately 21.8% MoM. Considering the shipping schedule transmission cycle, China's bauxite port arrivals are expected to gradually pull back from late June, with a notable decline expected in July. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors In May 2026, ex-China bauxite prices were mainly affected by three factors: Guinea's export policy expectations, rising energy and ocean freight costs, and high inventory at China's alumina refineries suppressing purchase willingness. First, Guinea's bauxite export quota policy remained a market focus. Earlier, there were market rumours that the Guinean government might implement the bauxite export quota policy around the Labour Day holiday, driving up Guinea bauxite prices by restricting shipments. However, as the relevant policy had yet to be officially implemented, its marginal impact on market sentiment weakened, and market participants' enthusiasm for pricing and stockpiling based on this factor also declined. Second, rising energy and ocean freight costs provided some support for ex-China ore prices. Affected by geopolitical disruptions, international oil prices fluctuated at highs, and mine overland transport, ocean freight, and production operating costs all rose. According to an SMM survey, ocean freight rates from Guinea to China rose from approximately $34/wmt in April to $36-37.5/wmt in May, significantly pushing up shipping costs for mines and traders. Against the backdrop of increasing cost pressure, some mines and traders showed reduced enthusiasm for shipments, and the market also saw a slowdown in shipping pace. Third, raw material inventory at China's alumina refineries remained at a relatively high level, limiting acceptance of high-priced imported ore. Currently, bauxite inventory at China's alumina refineries stood at over 3 months, with downstream buyers mainly making just-in-time procurement and showing weak willingness to rush to buy amid continuous price rise. Although some long-term contract prices from Guinea to China were around $70/mt in May, an SMM survey found that some downstream alumina refineries' intended prices for spot bauxite purchases were still concentrated around $65-67/mt, with significant price divergence between buyers and sellers. Price Outlook Supply side, energy and ocean freight costs stayed high, providing some support for ex-China bauxite prices. Meanwhile, shipments from Guinea's main ports pulled back on a phased basis, which may gradually transmit to China's port arrival side. Demand side, bauxite inventory at China's alumina refineries remained relatively sufficient, with limited possibility of significantly raising procurement target prices in the short term, and notable bargaining between high- and low-priced resources persisted in the market. SMM expects that ex-China bauxite prices will hover at highs in the near term. Continued attention should be paid to changes in Guinea's shipments, ocean freight rate trends, the pace of inventory drawdown at China's alumina refineries, and shifts in procurement sentiment.