SMM, July 3: At the start of this week, the long-quiet cobalt market saw fresh news again—the DRC announced that unused quotas for H1 2026 will be automatically voided and transferred in a unified manner to the ARECOMS strategic quota pool. Boosted by this news, market pessimism was eased, and refined cobalt prices stopped falling and rebounded, but weak downstream demand remained an inescapable topic in the cobalt market… SMM has compiled this week’s price changes for cobalt products as follows: : According to SMM spot quotes, refined cobalt spot prices stopped falling and rebounded this week. As of July 3, refined cobalt spot quotes stood at 378,000-385,000 yuan/mt, averaging 381,500 yuan/mt, up 2,000 yuan/mt from 379,500 yuan/mt on June 26, an increase of 0.53%. » View SMM cobalt-lithium spot quotes From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, mainstream smelters’ EXW prices first fell then rose during the week, and currently, EXW prices are stable at 385,000 yuan/mt. After market stabilization, traders resumed offering, with the spot-futures price spread remaining in a range of parity to a premium of 10,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, boosted by DRC-related news, downstream end-user inquiries warmed slightly, and weekly transactions improved slightly WoW, but most deals were for essential early stockpiling, and a substantive recovery in end-user demand has yet to materialize. In the near term, insufficient downstream demand support, combined with high industry inventories, may keep futures consolidating. A recovery in refined cobalt prices still requires an uptrend in upstream categories such as cobalt intermediate products and cobalt sulphate to drive it. Cobalt salts ( and ): : According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt sulphate spot prices edged down slightly on the first day and then remained stable this week. As of July 3, spot cobalt sulphate quotes were temporarily steady at 85,000-87,000 yuan/mt, averaging 86,000 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from June 26, a decline of 0.17%. » View SMM cobalt-lithium spot quotes According to SMM, the cobalt sulphate market remained sluggish this week. On the supply side, primary smelters’ quotes remained firm overall, with mainstream enterprises holding their minimum shipment target price at 85,000 yuan/mt. Boosted by the mid-week DRC policy news, market pessimism was repaired, and some recycling smelters and traders’ willingness to sell at lower prices weakened. Low-priced cargo offers were raised from 80,000-81,000 yuan/mt last week to 82,000-83,000 yuan/mt. Demand side showed no significant recovery yet. Downstream enterprises generally adopted a produce-based-on-sales model, and product settlements mostly used a monthly average price mechanism. To avoid the risk of price spread between purchase and sale at specific time points, most enterprises maintained a wait-and-see sentiment in early July, and substantial restocking activities were likely delayed to mid-to-late July. In the short term, cobalt sulphate prices mainly consolidated. The sustained recovery of the market still needs to wait for the concentrated restocking demand from downstream to be realized. : According to SMM spot quotes, the spot quote of cobalt chloride drifted lower this week. As of July 3, cobalt chloride spot quotes fell to 102,500-104,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 103,250 yuan/mt, down 2,000 yuan/mt from 105,250 yuan/mt on June 26, a decline of 1.9%. According to SMM, the cobalt chloride market remained sluggish this week. Inquiries increased somewhat, but actual transactions were still scarce. On Tuesday, the DRC announced the cancellation of unused quotas for Q2 2026, which only caused a slight fluctuation in the market in the morning and calmed down in the afternoon, indicating that the market's focus had shifted from supply-side disruptions to fundamentals, own demand, and inventory conditions. However, from a fundamental perspective, price rebound faced significant resistance, and the market remained pessimistic in the short term. Supply side, smelter quotes began to stabilize, with some enterprises even slightly raising quotes to test the market; but although downstream inquiries increased, actual implementation was limited. July prices will still need to wait for representative transactions to emerge before having reference significance. Demand side, the "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn" sentiment dominated purchasing decisions. Downstream enterprises were still observing whether the current stabilization was a mid-drop pause or a true bottom, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. Overall assessment, short-term cobalt chloride prices are expected to be largely stable, with limited further downside room. : According to SMM spot quotes, Co3O4 spot quotes continued to decline this week. As of July 3, Co3O4 spot quotes fell to 315,000-330,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 322,500 yuan/mt, down 12,500 yuan/mt from 335,000 yuan/mt on June 26, a decline of 3.73%. According to SMM, the Co3O4 market remained extremely sluggish this week, with actual transactions being scarce. Supply side, the mid-year report window had passed, enterprises that were bearish earlier had largely completed their shipments, and after the phased selling pressure was released, quotes stabilized this week. Demand side, although the traditional purchasing window had opened, amidst sustained price pressure, downstream cathode material plants still mainly adopted a wait-and-see stance and continued to push for lower prices in purchasing. The persistently depressed prices further dampened upstream willingness to sell. Overall, the subsequent trajectory of Co3O4 will depend on the price direction of cobalt salts, with near-term movement likely to track sideways in tandem with cobalt chloride. On the raw material front for cobalt intermediate products, SMM spot price data showed that spot prices for cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) edged down this week, with overall fluctuations remaining relatively small. As of July 3, spot prices for cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) stood at $24.25–25.5/lb, with an average of $24.875/lb, down $0.25/lb from the $25.125/lb recorded on June 26, a decline of 0.1%. SMM learned that trading in the spot cobalt intermediate product market was sluggish this week. Mid-week, the DRC government announced the revocation of miners' unused export quotas for H1 2026, significantly boosting long-term bullish sentiment in the market. Supported by this, mainstream miners kept their offers firm around the $25.5/lb level, while some traders' lowest shipment prices for small-lot cargoes stabilized near $24/lb. With cobalt salt market valuations currently running at low levels, a back-calculation based on spot cobalt salt prices suggests that downstream smelters would only accept raw material procurement prices around $23/lb. This creates a notable price spread between buyers and sellers, resulting in a stalemate with few actual transactions being concluded. In the short term, downstream smelting demand offers weak support, and intermediate product prices are likely to continue moving sideways. A breakout to the upside would depend on a demand recovery driven by improved cobalt salt valuations. On the news front, at the start of this week, DRC policy once again roiled the market with the announcement, based on the Autorité de Régulation et de Contrôle des Marchés des Substances Minérales Stratégiques (ARECOMS) press release No. 2026/003, that unused quotas from H1 2026 would be revoked and reallocated into a strategic quota pool. Following the policy release, SMM quickly assessed its potential impact, measuring the supply of cobalt intermediate products (including some high-grade recycled cobalt as supplementary material) into China for June-December 2026 and for 2027 based on two scenarios: 1. Based on market statistics, as of May 2026, miners in the DRC had only made prepayments for approximately 32,000 mt in metal content of cobalt intermediate products. Considering a shipping period of over three months from the DRC to China and the need to supply some cobalt resources to regions outside China, SMM assumes China's imports of cobalt intermediate products from June 2026 to December 2026 will be 46,000 mt in cobalt metal content, with domestic self-production of around 500 mt. For 2027, assuming miners allocate 80% of the 87,000 mt in metal content quota for cobalt intermediate products to China, imports would be around 70,000 mt in cobalt metal content, with domestic self-production of around 1,000 mt. 2. With the strong growth in China's recycled cobalt output this year driven by high economic viability, high-quality recycled cobalt that can partially substitute intermediate products is factored in as supplementary material. This would contribute approximately 18,000 mt in cobalt metal content of raw material from June to December 2026, and about 36,000 mt in cobalt metal content in 2027. From June to December 2026, demand for cobalt intermediate products (including some high-grade recycled cobalt as supplementary material) in China is expected to be around 58,000 mt in cobalt metal content, resulting in a slight surplus of 6,000 mt in cobalt metal content. This surplus is primarily attributed to the arrival of large volumes of intermediate products into ports from August 2026 onward. In 2027, China's demand for cobalt intermediate products (including some high-cobalt recycled supplementary materials) is approximately 105,000 mt Co, with a slight surplus of 3,000 mt Co. However, this surplus remains subject to the following uncertainties. First, if miners, after completing approvals, reduce circulation to control intermediate product prices, the market will still face relatively tight conditions. Second, the approval progress in the DRC remains relatively slow, and the future basic export quotas may not be fully shipped out. If imports fall short of expectations, the market will still face a relatively tight supply.

Philippine market: Zambales and Northern Luzon officially entered the rainy season. A low-pressure system may make landfall on Monday, and CIF prices followed Indonesian procurement prices lower. Overall CIF China offers fell this week: 1.3% at $45.5–47/wmt, 1.4% at $56–57/wmt, 1.5% at $64–65/wmt, and 1.8% at $91–94/wmt. CIF Indonesia offers held flat, with 1.3% at $45–46/wmt and 1.4% at $55–56/wmt, largely aligning with smelter tender prices. Freight rates eased notably this week: Surigao–Lianyungang around $13.25/wmt, Surigao–Indonesia around $11/wmt. Overall freight rates dropped by around $0.5/wmt WoW, significantly easing the situation where “freight rates stayed high.” FOB prices also moved lower, with 1.3% at $33–35/wmt, 1.4% at $41.5–43.5/wmt, and 1.8% at $76–78/wmt, confirming the earlier view that FOB would follow CIF’s pullback. Supply side, Zambales and Northern Luzon officially entered the rainy season, worsening mine roads, disrupting shipments, and leading to low outbound volumes. In terms of weather, the Philippines is expected to see continuous rainfall for the first five days of next week, shifting to mainly showers in the last two days, with total weekly rainfall surging across the country. Meanwhile, a low-pressure system is forming in the eastern waters; though not expected to intensify into a tropical depression or storm, it is forecast to make landfall in the central-southern Philippines next Monday and move northwestward across land, affecting Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. In major producing areas, cumulative weekly rainfall next week around the Manicani-Homonhon-Dinagat-Surigao belt is expected to more than double WoW, with the Homonhon area likely to be impacted by swells for 2–3 days. Dinapigue’s rainfall is forecast to be about six times this week’s level, with wave heights reaching around 1.7 meters on Wednesday and Thursday. RTN, Ipilan, and Berong loading points in Palawan are all expected to see higher rainfall next week compared to this week. In Zambales, cumulative weekly rainfall is forecast to be about 2.5 times this week’s level. Despite sustained weather disruptions, Chinese port inventories are already high, so weather’s support to prices remains very limited. Cost side, international oil prices pulled back slightly, alleviating mining and transportation cost pressures, but spot freight rates remained at relatively high levels, with the easing not yet fully materialized. Demand side, smelters in both China and Indonesia held dual-high inventories, with limited near-term restocking appetite. The buyer-dominated pattern persisted, and spot trading stayed sluggish. On inventories, as of June 26, Philippine nickel ore stocks at Chinese ports stood at around 6.44 million wmt (approximately 51,000 mt in nickel metal content), sustaining the ample supply picture. Indonesian market: HMA dropped sharply MoM—down 7.6% to a new low; RKAB revision window opened; heavy rainfall continued to disrupt shipments in Halmahera and Obi. Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources published the HMA nickel reference price for the first half of July at $17,225.67/dmt, a significant drop of about 7.6% from $18,642.33/dmt in the second half of June. Based on this, the theoretical HPM price for Ni 1.6% saprolite ore is around $66.6/wmt, and for Ni 1.2% limonite ore around $47.4/wmt. Premiums: premiums for 1.6% material remained stable; premiums for 1.4% material were around $1.3/wmt; for 1.5% and 1.6%, around $3/wmt—overall limited movement. In spot trading, 1.2% limonite ore was offered at around $30/wmt, and 1.5% saprolite ore at around $65/wmt, with both declining by about $5.5/wmt in total this week, mainly driven by the sharp fall in the HMA reference price. Supply side, the impact of the rainy season on Sulawesi production areas remained relatively mild in some regions, with limited disruption to overall shipments. However, weather conditions in Halmahera and Obi Island were generally severe, with persistent heavy rainfall and deteriorating sea conditions already causing some restrictions on mine production. Despite shipment disruptions, overall smelter inventory levels remained relatively adequate, limiting the near-term influence on procurement pace. Meanwhile, smelters continued to demand higher ore grades; low-grade ore (1.3–1.4%) supply was largely filled by Philippine cargoes, and multiple smelters turned to actively seeking high-grade ore (≥1.45%). Yet domestic high-grade ore supply remained scarce, with circulating grades concentrated in the 1.45–1.50% Ni range, intensifying procurement competition. Spot transaction prices for 1.2% limonite ore stayed stable this week; smelter procurement stayed low, with general reluctance to transact at HPM theoretical prices, deep discounts persisted, and low HPAL operating rates continued to weigh on purchasing prices. On the policy front, on Thursday, June 25, Tri Winarno, Director-General of Mineral and Coal at Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, clarified that the total RKAB quota for nickel ore in 2026 has not yet been finalized. The government is still evaluating companies’ revision applications through the official review mechanism, with no specific figure set, focusing on assessing actual industry demand rather than relaxing restrictions. The RKAB revision window officially opened on July 1 and runs until July 31, with mining companies already initiating preparation work for revision applications and submitting production quota adjustment materials intensively; all adjustments are subject to full review.

On July 2 (local time), the US Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) issued a solicitation for a five-year fixed-price contract to procure battery-grade lithium carbonate for the US National Defense Stockpile . According to the solicitation, the contract covers up to 35,641,599 lbs (approximately 16,167 metric tons) of battery-grade lithium carbonate, with a maximum contract value of US$300 million . Bids will be accepted until July 17 , and the contract will be awarded to the technically acceptable offer with the lowest evaluated price. The minimum guaranteed order value is US$1 million . The procurement schedule indicates that approximately 8.06 million lbs (around 3,657 tonnes) will be purchased during the first contract year, gradually declining to approximately 6.26 million lbs (around 2,839 tonnes) in the fifth year. The product must be powdered battery-grade lithium carbonate with a minimum purity of 99.5% , delivered to DLA warehouses located in New York, Nevada, Indiana, or Ohio . The procurement forms part of the US National Defense Stockpile program , aiming to strengthen strategic reserves of critical minerals and enhance supply chain resilience for national defense and critical industries. The five-year contract also underscores the US government's continued efforts to reinforce the security of its critical mineral supply chain. SMM will continue to monitor the tender process and subsequent contract awards. SMM Analysis Key Takeaway: This is more of a strategic policy signal than a demand shock for the lithium market. Rather than representing a sudden increase in commercial lithium demand, the tender demonstrates that the United States is moving from policy planning to the actual implementation of its critical mineral stockpiling strategy. The DLA Strategic Materials office is responsible for managing the US National Defense Stockpile, which serves national security purposes rather than commercial inventory management. Earlier this year, in March, the DLA had already issued a Request for Information (RFI) regarding the potential procurement of approximately 550 tonnes of lithium carbonate , indicating that lithium stockpiling has become part of a broader expansion of the US critical mineral reserve system rather than an isolated initiative. Limited Impact on Global Supply-Demand Fundamentals The announced procurement totals approximately 16,200 tonnes over five years, averaging roughly 3,200 tonnes per year (LCE) . Compared with global lithium consumption, this volume remains relatively small and is significantly outweighed by fluctuations in EV and energy storage demand. Consequently, the procurement is unlikely to materially alter the global supply-demand balance or fundamentally change lithium market dynamics in the near term. Instead, it should be viewed as a long-term strategic procurement program , with limited direct impact on spot market fundamentals. Procurement Strategy Prioritizes Supply Security Based on the announced ceiling value of US$300 million , the implied maximum procurement price is approximately US$18,600 per tonne , or roughly RMB 134,000 per tonne . While this figure does not represent the actual transaction price, it suggests that the US government places greater emphasis on security of supply, supplier qualification, and long-term delivery reliability , rather than simply sourcing at the lowest spot price available in Asia. Should the final contract prices exceed prevailing Asian market prices, the procurement could effectively create a policy premium for qualified suppliers. Supply Chain Implications Although the required product specification—battery-grade lithium carbonate with a purity of at least 99.5% —is relatively standard, participation requires suppliers to satisfy government procurement requirements, demonstrate reliable delivery capability, and comply with US procurement regulations. As a result, the tender is expected to favor North American producers , as well as qualified suppliers from Australia, South America, and other "friend-shoring" jurisdictions , rather than traditional spot-market traders. Market Implications SMM believes the impact can be assessed across three dimensions. 1. Limited Near-Term Price Impact The procurement schedule translates into roughly 200–300 tonnes per month , which is insignificant relative to China's monthly lithium salt production, cathode manufacturing, and downstream battery demand. Therefore, the procurement alone is unlikely to change the short-term direction of lithium carbonate prices. 2. Positive Sentiment Effect At current low lithium price levels, government stockpiling reinforces the narrative that lithium is evolving from a purely commercial commodity into a strategic resource . Although the direct demand impact is modest, the announcement could provide short-term support to market sentiment, particularly when oversupply expectations have already been largely priced in. 3. Long-Term Strategic Repricing If the United States continues supporting domestic and allied lithium supply through the DLA, the Defense Production Act, critical mineral incentives, government loans, and long-term procurement contracts, a parallel strategic procurement market may gradually emerge. Such demand may remain relatively small in volume but could command stronger pricing and place greater emphasis on supply security, ESG compliance, traceability, and geopolitical alignment. SMM View The significance of this announcement lies more in its policy implications than its immediate demand impact . In the short term, the procurement is unlikely to materially affect lithium carbonate supply-demand fundamentals or spot prices. However, over the longer term, the inclusion of lithium within the US national defense stockpile further highlights its strategic importance and may provide stronger policy support for North American and allied lithium projects. Lesley Yang New Energy Analyst Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)

This week, rare earth oxide and metal prices outside China remained largely stable amid sluggish trading, while price fluctuations in China had not yet been transmitted. Industrial developments were intensive: India’s Mecwin teamed up with Germany’s Fraunhofer to lay out the entire NdFeB industry chain; Sweden approved a 25-year lease for the North Kärr rare earth mine, and Namibia’s Kieshoehe project verified deep potential. Iluka obtained an Australian government loan to advance the Eneabba refinery, and ULVAC, driven by surging demand in Europe and the United States, planned to build a new melting furnace production line in Japan. U.S. and Australian enterprises achieved breakthroughs in high-purity rare earth refining and hard disk recycling technologies, while Canada and Japan actively promoted cooperation on the critical minerals supply chain.

SMM July 3 News: In the metals market: As of the midday close, most domestic base metals rose. SHFE copper gained 0.76%, SHFE aluminum rose 1.45%. SHFE lead advanced 0.47%. SHFE zinc edged down 0.02%. SHFE tin climbed 0.66%. SHFE nickel increased 0.59%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures rose 1.42%, while the most-traded alumina fell 1.62%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 1.87%. The most-traded silicon metal futures gained 0.18%. The most-traded polysilicon futures edged up. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore declined 1.41%. HRC, rebar, and stainless steel all fell within 0.4%. In the coking coal and coke markets, the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.58%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.89%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:46, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper gained 0.96%, LME aluminum rose 1.04%, LME lead advanced 0.8%. LME zinc increased 0.81%, LME tin climbed 2.05. LME nickel rose 1.1%. In precious metals, as of 11:46, COMEX gold rose 1.64%, and COMEX silver gained 2.76%. In domestic precious metals, SHFE gold advanced 2.67%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures contract surged 4.05%. Strategists at OCBC Bank Group Research said in a report that gold's medium-term role as a target for asset diversification remains valid, but its price may be dragged down by a more challenging macroeconomic environment. OCBC analysts said demand for gold may be supported by the official sector, with central banks indicating they intend to increase gold reserves in the next 12 months. However, they added that investors have already priced in expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, and the short-term macro pressure from rising real yields and a stronger US dollar is unlikely to be fully offset. OCBC expects gold prices to reach $4,360 per ounce by the end of 2026 and $4,680 per ounce by the end of Q2 2027. (Jinshi Data APP) Furthermore, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 3.81%, and the most-traded palladium futures gained 4.1%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping route futures contract rose 3.31% to 2,653 points. As of 11:46 on July 3, midday quotes for some futures: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper quoted at 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper quoted at 20 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,965 yuan/mt, up 625 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,875 yuan/mt, up 620 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangdong inventories have pulled back for two consecutive days… Macro Front On the domestic front: [This year's 200 billion yuan "program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins" funding for equipment renewal has been fully allocated] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has noted that this year's 200 billion yuan ultra-long-term special sovereign bond funding to support the "program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins" for equipment renewal has been fully allocated. (CCTV News) [PBOC's open market operations resulted in a net drain of 168.5 billion yuan on the day, and a net drain of 1,587 billion yuan for the week] The PBOC conducted 63 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. With 231.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing today, this resulted in a net drain of 168.5 billion yuan for the day. For the week, the PBOC conducted 678.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 900 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos. With 2,265.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 900 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos maturing this week, this resulted in an aggregate net drain of 1,587 billion yuan for the week. (Jin10 Data APP) On the US dollar front: As of 11:46, the US dollar index fell 0.07% to 100.81. On Friday, the US dollar was on track for its biggest weekly loss in nearly three months, after a weaker-than-expected June payrolls report delayed market expectations for US Fed rate hikes and offered some respite to the ailing yen. A sharp slowdown in US employment growth in June prompted traders to scale back their expectations of near-term rate hikes by the US Fed, with the market now pricing in a 52% chance of a hike at the September meeting, down from 64% the previous trading day. US Treasury yields also pulled back from earlier highs, with the two-year yield snapping a three-day winning streak. OCBC currency strategist Sim Moh Siong said, "At the margin, the data is a bit dovish and helps ease concerns about an overheating labor market and the need for more aggressive policy tightening." However, he added that so long as expectations of Fed tightening remain in place, the overall outlook for the US dollar remains constructive, especially against low-yielding currencies. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged at the July meeting is 82.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 17.6%. For the September meeting, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 46.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 45.6% and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike is 7.6%. Jin10 Data APP) CICC research report pointed out that the US added 57,000 nonfarm payrolls in June, below market expectations, indicating a cooling of the acceleration in job growth. After downward revisions to previous months, the average job gains over the past three months still reached 111,000, showing that the labour market is still expanding. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, and the labour force participation rate continued to pull back, reflecting steady labour demand coexisting with a contraction in labour supply, with overall unemployment pressure relatively small. CICC believes that this data gives the US Fed time to wait and watch, thus maintaining the judgement that there will be neither an interest rate increase nor a cut for the rest of the year. In the medium term, the improvement in US employment this year is more attributable to the economic cycle recovery driven by AI investment, rather than short-term factors such as the World Cup. This means that if total economic demand continues to expand boosted by AI, the possibility of the US Fed resuming interest rate hikes next year cannot be ruled out. Huatai Securities research report stated that the US nonfarm payrolls in June missed expectations, mainly due to a sharp pullback in leisure and hospitality and local government employment, which had been boosted earlier by the early Memorial Day and the World Cup. By sector, both services and government saw a marked slowdown in new nonfarm jobs, while the goods sector saw a small rebound. The June nonfarm report eased market concerns about overheating risks in the US labour market. Leading indicators suggest that employment levels will be around the equilibrium level of 0‒50,000 in the coming months, maintaining the view that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in H2 and may need to raise rates next year. Data: Today, France's May industrial production m/m, France's June final services PMI, Germany's June final services PMI, Eurozone June final services PMI, UK June final services PMI, and other data will be released. In addition, China's refined oil products will open a new pricing window. European Central Bank President Lagarde will attend an economic forum, and Bank of England Governor Bailey will deliver a speech on fiscal and monetary policy coordination. Notably, on July 3, the US – NYSE will be closed for one day due to the US Independence Day holiday. The US – CME, due to the US Independence Day, will have trading in its precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, US Treasury, and equity index futures contracts close early at 01:00 Beijing time on July 4. July 3 (Friday) coincides with the US Independence Day holiday, and financial market trading hours will be adjusted accordingly. The holiday schedules for overseas exchanges are as follows: (all times are Beijing time) Crude oil: As of 11:46, both benchmarks rose, with WTI up 0.52% and Brent up 0.64%. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports have surged to near pre-war levels since it resumed loading and unloading tankers in the Persian Gulf, providing further evidence that oil supplies from regional producers are recovering following the US-Iran interim peace agreement. In the six days through Wednesday, the world’s largest oil exporter shipped a daily average of 6.3 million barrels of crude, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That pace is roughly in line with the average for 2025 and nearly 90% of February’s level, when the kingdom and its Gulf neighbors ramped up supply before the Iran war broke out. (Jin10 Data APP) Citigroup said the US-Iran memorandum of understanding is expected to remain in force in the coming months and eventually be converted into a formal agreement. The incentives for de-escalating the conflict outweigh the costs of returning to confrontation. The bank reiterated its recommendation to sell into any summer rally and forecast that Brent crude will fall to $60-65 a barrel by year-end. Additionally, "gasoline prices have been a bit sticky on the way down," US Treasury Secretary Bessent said in a CBS News interview. "We’re trying to put a little pressure on the gasoline retailers. We are telling them we’re watching closely," Bessent said, "We’ve gotten positive responses from some of the big-box retailers on doing something for the consumer." Bessent hopes the average gasoline price will fall to $3 a gallon by Labor Day and said he expects oil and energy prices to continue to pull back. (From Wall Street News APP) Separately, trading in Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Brent crude futures contracts will close early at 01:30 Beijing time on July 4 in observance of US Independence Day. Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM Cobalt Morning Meeting Minutes: This week, the cobalt industry chain overall stopped falling and stabilized. Spot refined cobalt prices rebounded slightly, boosted by policy news from the DRC, and market sentiment recovered somewhat, but actual transactions were still dominated by rigid demand stockpiling. Cobalt intermediate product prices remained stable, with miners’ quotations firm but limited acceptance from downstream smelters, resulting in a significant bid-ask spread. Market transactions for cobalt sulphate, cobalt chloride, and Co3O4 remained sluggish, with strong downstream wait-and-see sentiment and restocking demand not yet significantly released. Cobalt powder prices continued to decline, as off-season pressure on cemented carbide persisted. Ternary cathode precursor prices weakened, while ternary cathode materials rebounded slightly but with limited transactions. LCO demand remained relatively weak.