On Tuesday this week, the latest survey of fund managers released by Bank of America once again revealed a fact that most people already knew: nearly everyone on Wall Street is currently shorting the US dollar.

According to Mining Weekly, precious metals consultancy Metals Focus (MF) stated in its latest report, Gold Focus 2025, that growth in gold production will drive a 1% increase in global gold supply this year. The annual report, released last week, provides in-depth analysis of the global gold market, including historical supply and demand data from 2016 to 2024, as well as detailed forecasts for the current year. The report projects a 9% decline in total demand this year, primarily due to a double-digit drop in jewelry consumption. Gold prices are expected to reach new all-time highs later this year, driven by economic uncertainty stemming from US policies and geopolitical tensions, portfolio diversification, growing concerns about US debt, and robust central bank demand for gold. The average gold price in 2025 is expected to surge by 35% to a record level of $3,210 per ounce. According to MF's data, official net purchases of gold reached 1,086 mt in 2024, a historic high. This trend is attributed to "de-dollarization," prompting central banks to increase their gold reserves. Total sales also declined significantly last year, partly due to the absence of large-scale disposals like those seen in Turkey in 2023. MF found that macroeconomic uncertainty will keep central bank gold purchases at elevated levels, with net purchases projected at 1,000 mt in 2025. Mine production is also a key factor in supply changes. Global gold production from mines reached 3,661 mt in 2024, a 0.6% increase and a new record high. Growth was primarily driven by Mexico, Canada, and Ghana. The increase in production was accompanied by rising costs, with global all-in sustaining costs (AISC) increasing by 8% to $1,399 per ounce. This is attributed to inflationary pressures from rising gold prices and increased royalty fees. This year, mine gold production is expected to grow by 1% to 3,694 mt, thanks to the commissioning of new mining projects. Gold recycling surged to 1,368 mt in 2024, an 11% increase and a 12-year high. The vast majority of this growth came from China, which saw a 26% increase. Most regions experienced double-digit growth, driven by rising prices. However, India saw a decline in gold scrap production due to increased gold credit availability. In other regions, limited near-market stocks, widespread risk aversion, and persistent bullish price expectations constrained growth. MF expects gold recycling volumes to remain flat in 2025, as the factors that limited growth in 2024 are expected to persist despite rising gold prices. Jewelry demand is expected to decline significantly, with global manufacturing gold use falling by 9% in 2024. This is mainly due to weak demand in China. Excluding China, demand only fell by 1%, indicating resilience in other regions despite the increase in average prices. Net demand for gold in the jewelry industry dropped significantly by 34%, primarily due to an 11% increase in recycling volume. In 2025, it is expected that the decline in manufacturing usage will widen to 16% as rising gold prices exert severe pressure on price-sensitive markets such as India. In terms of investment, institutional demand continued to grow in 2024. This was driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and actual interest rate reductions, while heightened geopolitical instability, concerns over US debt, and the strong performance of the US stock market all supported continued portfolio diversification into gold. Overall, retail investment remained stable, with growth in demand from Asian investors offsetting significant declines in Western markets, as rising prices led to reduced consumption. Industrial gold demand showed mixed results, with gold demand in electronics increasing by 9% in 2024, mainly due to a rebound in electronic goods deliveries, manufacturing expansion, and growing demand for AI-related technologies. MF forecasts a further 3% increase in gold demand for electronics this year, despite facing tariff challenges. In 2024, demand for decorative and other industrial uses contracted by 1%, with declines observed in major markets such as India and Italy. Affected by structural adjustments in the industry, dental gold demand continued its long-term downward trend, declining by 5%. MF concludes that the fundamentals of gold were robust in 2024. This was supported by strong central bank gold-buying intentions, growth in mine production, increased recycling, and the resilience of Asian retail investment. Although jewelry demand declined, after adjusting for the extent of price increases, it still indicated ongoing consumer interest. Meanwhile, manufacturing gold demand continued to grow, driven by the electronics sector. Looking ahead, MF analyzed the risk factors and trends supporting gold prices in 2025. These include the trade policies of the current US administration, concerns over trade wars, fiscal uncertainty in the US, and expectations of further monetary easing by the US Fed. MF forecasts that gold prices will reach new highs this year, supported by investor caution and rising interest from government sectors. Company manager Philip Newman emphasized that central banks are turning to gold to hedge against geopolitical and currency risks. He also highlighted regional differences in bar and coin investment, the resilience of Asian retail demand, and the overall potential of gold as a non-yielding safe-haven asset. Newman stated that despite potential market volatility and corrections, the outlook remains generally optimistic, with an average price forecast of $3,210 per ounce this year, a level that will surpass the inflation-adjusted peak of 1980.

On May 16, the 2025 SMM (6th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), co-organized by Ningbo Haoshun Precious Metals Co., Ltd. and Quanda New Materials (Ningbo) Co., Ltd., and supported by sponsors including Fujian Zijin Precious Metals Materials Co., Ltd., Huizhou Yian Precious Metals Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Jiangshan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou Jinquan Mining and Metallurgical Equipment Co., Ltd., Hunan Shengyin New Materials Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Weida Precious Metals Powder Materials Co., Ltd., Guangxi Zhongma Zhonglianjin Cross-border E-commerce Co., Ltd., Suzhou Xinghan New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., Yongxing Zhongsheng Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd., IKOI S.p.A, Hunan Zhengming Environmental Protection Co., Ltd., Kunshan Hongfutai Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd., and Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd., featured a presentation by Liang Yonghui, Deputy General Manager of Shandong Zhaojin Gold and Silver Refining Co., Ltd., on the topic "Analysis of Gold and Silver Price Trends: A Trader's Perspective." Logic of Gold and Silver Price Analysis The logical hierarchy of gold price drivers differs from that of commodities due to gold's financial attributes. Silver prices are increasingly influenced by copper prices. Long-term: The macro trend of gold prices opposes paper currency credit. Medium-term: Guided by expectations of real interest rates, with capital flows dominated by technical factors, speculation, and risk aversion. Short-term: Market sentiment Gold price = Real interest rate + Risk aversion + Market sentiment, etc. Logic from 1997 to present: From 1997-2015, real interest rates and inflation; from 2016-2018, technical factors; from 2019 to present, real interest rates, risk aversion, and market sentiment. Gold and Silver Price Analysis Framework (Mind Map) Macro fundamentals: From the perspective of military cycles, the current period is a high-incidence era of revolutions over the past century, indicating a more severe situation than in the 1930s and 1970s. From the Kondratieff wave (long-wave cycle) perspective, the current situation in the US resembles that of the 1970s, both experiencing high inflation during the Kondratieff depression phase. Sunspots: A century-long solar storm tide provides long-term support for gold and silver prices. The rise in global average temperatures will significantly increase the number of hungry people, raising uncertainty risks. Abnormal weather patterns, economic turmoil, and population growth will provide long-term bullish factors for gold and silver (carbon neutrality). From the perspective of the US dollar index, it has fallen below 100 but is expected to remain volatile, with a bullish impact on gold and silver prices. The purchasing power of major currencies and commodities has significantly declined relative to gold. Historically, major currencies were pegged to gold. Following the final collapse of the US Bretton Woods system in 1971, gold was delinked from the US dollar. Since then, with a few exceptions, gold has significantly outperformed all major currencies and commodities as a medium of exchange. A key factor behind this robust performance is the slow growth in gold supply, with gold mine production increasing gradually over time—by approximately 1.7% annually over the past two decades. In contrast, fiat currencies can be printed in unlimited quantities to support monetary policies, such as the quantitative easing (QE) policies implemented after the 2008 global financial crisis and during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. These crises have prompted investors to turn to gold as a hedge against currency depreciation risks and to protect the purchasing power of their assets. Currently, the US Fed's interest rate cut cycle has entered a pause phase. A series of uncertainties are affecting the outlook for US Fed interest rate cuts. The minutes of the US Fed's monetary policy meetings indicate that policies such as the Trump administration's tariffs have led to increased economic uncertainty and upside risks to inflation. Therefore, the US Fed will continue to pause interest rate cuts and wait for clearer inflation and economic outlooks before taking further action. According to statistics, the term "tariffs" was mentioned 107 times in the US Fed's Beige Book report, while terms related to "uncertainty" appeared 89 times, reflecting the US Fed's concerns about the uncertain consequences arising from tariff policies. Currently, market expectations are for an interest rate cut as early as June, with up to four cuts possible throughout the year. According to the US Fed's interest rate forecast dot plot, a report based on individual members' predictions of future target interest rates released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): Looking ahead to the US Fed's future interest rate cut path, the prerequisites for future US Fed interest rate cuts are sustained declines in inflation or significant weakness in the labour market. Trump has repeatedly pressured Powell to cut interest rates, but Fed Chairman Powell has clearly stated that the current stance is to remain on the sidelines. Currently, influenced by the continued weakening of the labour market, market expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts this year have risen to 100 basis points, with a total of four cuts expected. The ongoing global de-dollarization is causing cracks in the US dollar system, reshaping the world order. With no alternative to gold emerging yet, this supports gold prices. The macroeconomic cycle influences medium and long-term fluctuations in gold prices. US economic recession cycles often correspond with rising gold prices and falling silver prices. The risk of economic recession has significantly increased, which is bullish for gold and bearish for silver. From the perspective of real interest rates, the current static gold price is $1,850. ►Silver Supply and Demand The latest report released by the Silver Institute predicts that the global silver deficit will narrow to 117.6 million ounces in 2025, a decrease of 21%. This change stems from the combined effects of a 1% decline in demand and a 2% increase in total supply. Silver, as a crucial material for jewelry, electronics, EVs, and solar panels, and with investment value, has experienced a structural market shortage for five consecutive years. It is expected to remain stable in 2025, while demand for jewelry and silverware is anticipated to decline. The report specifically mentions that adjustments to the US tariff policy pose a major risk factor for silver demand this year, and changes in this policy may profoundly impact the supply-demand balance in the global silver market. Both the total global silver supply and silver mine production have slowed down. Total demand has weakened somewhat, while industrial silver demand continues to grow, and PV demand growth is limited. It also elaborates on the narrowing of the silver supply-demand gap; the low level of domestic and overseas silver inventories; the historically high levels of silver CFTC open interest, bulls, and net long positions; the rise in silver investment demand; and the increase in silver ETF holdings. ►Gold-silver price ratio: The ratio of silver to gold is an important indicator for measuring their relative value. Due to the impact of safe-haven and investment demand, gold surged significantly in April, while silver, lacking safe-haven attributes, saw limited gains, leading to a rapid widening of the gold-silver ratio to 107. After the release of the overheated sentiment in the gold market, gold bulls reduced their positions in stages and exited the market. Meanwhile, silver remained unusually resilient, and the gold-silver ratio once fell below 100. The long-term upward logic for gold remains unchanged, while silver currently lacks the conditions for a long-term rally. Despite the already high gold-silver ratio, as the correction in gold concludes, bullish capital is expected to return to the market, and the gold-silver ratio may continue to rise in the future. From the perspective of the Kondratieff depression phase, considering excess premium or a macro bull market, gold has risen, and the excess premium has been realized. Will there be a macro bull market? Bearish in the medium term. From the perspective of the gold-to-metal and gold-to-agricultural product ratios during the depression, gold is at a high level with excess premium, which is bearish. From the perspective of central banks' gold buying and selling, central banks' purchases have been on an upward trend in recent years, which is bearish in peaceful times and bullish during war cycles. From the perspective of capital flow—open interest, a unilateral trend can be maintained. Exchange rates will reduce volatility: From the perspective of the silver bull-bear cycle, with eight operational phases, it is bearish. However, silver's application in PV at 3,000 mt per year is bullish in the long term (due to major industrial technological breakthroughs). ►Key factors Some thoughts: 1. Gold's correction is similar to that in December 2009. Most non-ferrous metals have seen their prices halved, while gold has continuously hit new highs, and silver's performance resembles that of copper in the 1980s. 3. Prices tend to rise during interest rate hike cycles, and there is a high probability of rising during interest rate cut cycles as well. 4. The global macro cycle suggests a chaotic world in the future. Under this macro cycle, gold prices may exceed expectations. Could silver reach $49? 5. Opportunities arise from the scarcity of gold, silver, platinum, tin, gallium, germanium, and major industrial technological breakthroughs. 6. Digital currencies represent the greatest uncertainty in weakening the financial attributes of gold and silver. Gold has the foundation for a major bull market, and silver's long-term target is close to its previous high. ►Forecast: Its long-term attributes resemble those of copper, with a new cycle trend emerging after March 2024. In the near term, prices are expected to range from $27 to $38, with an overall fluctuating upward trend based on weekly adjustments. Gold: Is there a foundation for a long-term bull market at $5,000? Risk warnings: (In the VUCA era) 1. Uncertainty of war and conflicts. 2. Uncertainty of technological revolutions. 3. Uncertainty between the East and the West. 4. Uncertainty of exchange rates. 》Click to view the special report on the 2025 SMM (6th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference

[SMM Flash News: COMEX Gold and SHFE Gold Hit Record Highs, Precious Metals Futures and Stocks Surge, Spot Silver Trading Remains Sluggish] Recently, a series of disappointing economic data released by the US, coupled with the unpredictable US tariff policies, has reignited concerns over a US economic recession. Adding to this, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts has heightened market risk aversion, driving a surge in precious metals futures and stocks. As of 15:05 on March 14, COMEX gold rose 0.22% to $2,898/oz, hitting a record high of $3,005.9/oz during the session; COMEX silver increased 0.78% to $34.575/oz, reaching a more than 4-month high of $34.685/oz during the session; SHFE gold climbed 1.83% to 694.96 yuan/g, setting a record high of 697.6 yuan/g during the session; SHFE silver advanced 2.82% to 8,358 yuan/kg, marking a more than 4-month high of 8,386 yuan/kg during the session.

Gold has long been regarded as a safe-haven asset, especially during times of economic uncertainty. Understanding gold price fluctuations requires an in-depth analysis of various global economic trends. We will explore the driving forces influencing gold prices, examine the role of geopolitical events, and discuss economic indicators that shape the market.

The price of gold is influenced by various factors, including supply and demand dynamics, inflation, interest rates, the value of the US dollar, geopolitical events, speculation, and market conditions. Gold mining, central bank reserves, and recycling are the key factors in gold supply, while jewelry, industrial demand, and demand for gold-backed ETF investments impacts overall demand. Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation, but may perform poorly during periods of deflation. Interest rates have an inverse relationship with gold prices, and a weakening US dollar often drives up gold prices. The instability and uncertainty of geopolitics will encourage investors to seek gold as a safe haven asset. Speculation, market sentiment, and global events can also affect gold prices. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for making informed decisions in the commodity market. Maintaining a clear understanding and a calm mind can help identify successful opportunities in the constantly evolving global economy.