For almost four weeks, the war against Iran has kept the world on edge – a conflict that leaves deep marks not only geopolitically but also economically. Volatility and uncertainty in global markets are increasing daily.

The question now arises: why did this rally occur so suddenly, and will it continue in the future? To address this, *Jagran Business* spoke with Ajay Kedia, Director of Kedia Advisory. He outlined a strategy for investors based on four key points, which will determine whether the current rally is sustainable or if the market is likely to witness a decline once again.

After a strong start, the price of gold slipped twice to around $5,060 during this trading week. Now, it appears that gold prices might manage to stay just above $5,100 heading into the weekend, continuing the persistent sideways movement of the past five weeks.

[Price Review] This week, silver prices continued to consolidate in a fluctuating range, but the war-driven rise in crude oil prices boosted US dollar demand again, putting pressure on precious metal prices and leaving the market relatively weak. Although during the week silver prices on the SGE tested the support level of 20,000 yuan/kg, and LBMA silver briefly fell below $80/oz, both later rebounded, indicating moderate support on the downside. This round of market movement was mainly affected by fading expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and the still-uncertain direction of geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Market participation in the silver market declined, and short-term fluctuations narrowed somewhat. Gold/silver ratio, both gold and silver prices showed a consolidating fluctuating trend this week, and the gold/silver ratio also fluctuated around 60. [Key Data] Bullish: US February seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls: -9.2, below expectations and the previous reading US API crude oil inventory for the week ended March 6: -1.678 million, below expectations and the previous reading Bearish: US January retail sales MoM: -0.2%, above expectations and below the previous reading US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ended March 6: 382.4, above expectations and the previous reading Data and macro releases to watch next week include: The US Fed will announce its March interest rate decision and economic outlook, including the dot plot. The market generally expects the US Fed to keep rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, and the probability of an interest rate cut has fallen to near zero. Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference after the rate decision to elaborate on the policy stance. US-Iran situation: Since the large-scale military action launched by the US and Israel against Iran on February 28, 2026, the conflict has lasted for more than two weeks. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the highest level of combat readiness, and the Foreign Ministry explicitly ruled out the possibility of opening negotiations. The transmission effect through the energy channel (inflation) far exceeded that through other channels. Inflation concerns instead weighed on expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, and the high-interest-rate environment pressured non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. [Price Forecast] Silver prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend amid the contest between macro disturbances and fundamentals. The continuing impact of the sharp rise in crude oil prices in the short term has gradually been transmitted, while renewed strength in demand for the US dollar and US Treasuries, together with cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, will keep precious metal prices under pressure in the short term.

Precious metals are having a moment. Gold and silver surged to record highs in January, benefiting from an alignment of macroeconomic factors, evolving supply-demand dynamics, and renewed industrial demand.

Gold and silver prices are expected to begin the week on a strong note when trading resumes on Monday, as escalating tensions in the Middle East push investors toward safe-haven assets, analysts said.