The 2026 SMM Hong Kong Metals Forum , organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and sponsored by China Securities International as platinum sponsor, wrapped up successfully at Novotel Hong Kong Century on May 6. With over 300 registrations and 200 on-site attendees, the forum focused on the theme "New Metals Cycle: Prices, Power & Global Wrestling". The event featured keynote speeches by industry experts and SMM analysts, covering base metals, new energy materials, and strategic revaluation of minor and precious metals. Two high-level panel sessions were held, exploring hot topics such as geopolitics, supply-demand fluctuations, CBAM impacts, and market opportunities. It also served as an efficient platform for networking and cooperation across entire industry chains. SMM Opening Address SMM Chairman Adam Fan SMM Chairman Adam Fan stated in the opening address that it was a great honor to gather with elites from all sectors of the industry at this forum. The world is currently at a critical development period, and the exchange of industry ideas is not only an industry necessity but also an inevitable requirement for global development. Adam reviewed the century-long legacy of the London Metal Exchange, which has weathered nearly 150 years of global changes and industry evolution, fully demonstrating that although market structures may change, the fundamental need for risk management and reliable price discovery remains constant. At the same time, Adam candidly acknowledged that global markets are currently mired in a pattern of deep fluctuations. Geopolitical conflicts, supply chain fragmentation, and the compounding crises of energy and food, overlaid with de-globalization and rising trade protectionism, have intensified market uncertainty and inflationary pressures, posing severe challenges to global economic growth and industrial cooperation. Against this backdrop, SMM has steadfastly upheld its mission, refusing to be a bystander to the trend of industry fragmentation, and is committed to serving as a bridge for global industrial connectivity amid a landscape of division. SMM is dedicated to promoting dialogue and exchange, breaking down industry and regional barriers, and bringing together regulators, traders, and producers from around the world to discuss industry development. SMM upholds the principle of information transparency, continuously providing accurate, real-time market data to help the industry see through market fog and clarify market distortions. SMM deepens pragmatic cooperation by building a neutral and professional platform for exchange and matchmaking, driving all parties to pursue collaborative development based on shared interests and transcending political differences. Adam emphasized that information sharing and open collaboration would be leveraged to mitigate market risks and strengthen overall industry resilience, and called on the industry to seize the opportunity of this forum to jointly explore solutions, transforming current challenges into momentum for driving integrated and robust development of the global metals industry. Speech by Platinum Sponsor Wang Guangxue, Member of the Executive Committee of China Securities Co., Ltd. and Chairman of China Securities Futures Co., Ltd. Wang stated that as a vital bridge connecting the capital market and the real economy, China Securities has always been committed to serving the high-quality development of the metals industry. Leveraging the comprehensive financial strengths of CITIC Group, the company has built a full-chain integrated service system covering securities, futures, investment, and research. The company has been deeply engaged in the commodities sector, continuously providing forward-looking research to anticipate market trends, utilizing futures instruments to build robust risk barriers, and empowering industrial upgrading through capital services. It will fully leverage CITIC Group's full-license resource advantages and the strategic value of Hong Kong as an international financial center to continuously strengthen its cross-border comprehensive financial services capabilities. The company aims to tailor integrated risk management and asset allocation solutions at home and abroad for enterprises across the metals industry chain, precisely helping enterprises hedge against price fluctuation risks, and enabling them to operate steadily and advance with high quality in complex market environments. Structural Shifts: Rethinking Commodity Benchmarks in an Era of Persistent Inflation and Rivalry Speaker: Tian Yaxiong, Co-Head of R&D Department, China Securities Futures Tian shared professional research findings and cutting-edge market insights on hot topics including the market outlook for global metals and the deep impact of geopolitics on commodity trends. SMM Industry Analysis: Market Outlook and Pre-seminar Sharing for Base Metals and New Energy Materials (Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Cobalt, Lithium, and Tin) & How SMM Empowers Your Commodity Trading & Analysis Speakers: Dr. Yanchen Wang, Managing Director of SMM Global UK Ltd.; Thomas Feng, Head of Industry Analysis at SMM Dr. Wang first analyzed the macroeconomic landscape. At the beginning of this year, the manufacturing PMIs of major economies performed quite well, actually exceeding 50%. Without the conflict, demand this year would have been quite strong. However, at the end of February, the US-Iran conflict broke out, and the International Monetary Fund subsequently revised down its global economic growth expectations. He pointed out that China's exports remain one of the three pillars that are still functioning well to date. Regarding automobile consumption, he noted that for the EV market, the positive factor for the auto industry also lies in exports. In Q1 this year, export performance was indeed very strong. If you look at EV exports alone, they actually grew nearly 160% YoY. Driven mainly by growth in global markets, he remains optimistic about the auto industry this year. In Europe, gasoline and diesel prices have risen significantly due to the US-Iran conflict, and EV demand is expected to benefit from this factor. He believes the power sector continues to maintain strong growth. Based on power grid and power generation investment data from the first two months, combined with State Grid Corporation of China's earlier announcement that fixed asset investment during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, this indicates that electricity demand will drive strong growth. State Grid Corporation of China will build more ultra-high voltage transmission projects, which will undoubtedly support aluminum demand and also copper demand. Aluminum: Wang noted that base metal prices experienced wild swings since the beginning of this year. He also discussed that China's aluminum smelters continued to raise operating rates due to favorable profitability; aluminum demand pulled back in Q1, and high prices drove inventory higher; approximately 950,000 mt of new aluminum smelting capacity in Indonesia may come online in 2026, with some investors watching Angola; and aluminum semis and wheel hub exports maintained growth in Q1. Copper: After copper prices experienced a pullback and adjustment in March, downstream procurement demand in China was rapidly released, providing strong support for copper prices to rebound. Copper prices rose sharply, with the market downplaying geopolitical risks. China's copper cathode demand was robust, and inventory continued to decline. China's copper scrap market was not truly facing a spot shortage issue. The outlook for copper cathode demand is positive. China remains dependent on copper concentrate imports. Spot copper concentrate TCs showed no signs of bottoming out. By-product revenue sustained smelter profits. He also analyzed the DRC sulphuric acid market conditions, the expected slowdown in global refined production growth, and how a refined market supply deficit should support higher copper prices. He also mentioned that the AI industry maintained strong development momentum, bringing new growth momentum to copper demand. Tin: He elaborated from the following perspectives: Myanmar tin production — slow recovery, upward trajectory, 2025-2027E; Indonesia tin ore RKAB quotas — expected to ease slightly in 2026; DRC — major mine production remained stable, but the M23 movement added uncertainty; global tin prices — supply determines the floor, macro factors drive fluctuations; the global tin market is expected to maintain a tight balance, with new mining capacity expected to be concentrated for release in 2028. Thomas Feng shared insights on nickel, cobalt, and lithium: emerging from the trough and entering a new cycle. ►New energy demand landscape: from EV popularization to energy storage deployment. First, he reviewed and provided an outlook on the global NEV market: NEV demand no longer maintains a one-sided high-growth trajectory, but instead exhibits characteristics of regional differentiation, structural divergence, and intensifying cyclical volatility; development paces in China, Europe, and the US have shown notable differences; performance trends of BEVs, PHEVs, and commercial vehicles have diverged; and the impact of inventory and price cycles on industry operations is increasing significantly. Second, in his review and outlook of the global energy storage market, he noted that the global energy storage market will remain concentrated in three key regions: China, the US, and Europe. Driven by 2030 climate goals, emerging markets such as the Middle East, Australia, and Southeast Asia are showing strong growth in demand for large-scale energy storage. Benefiting from cost advantages and improved safety performance, LFP battery market share is expected to continue climbing. ►Lithium: Reshaping the Supply-Demand Pattern in a New Cycle Global lithium carbonate market: shifting from overall surplus to structural tightness, with prices in a post-trough reassessment and recovery phase. Lithium hydroxide supply and demand maintained a tight balance: production on the supply side was driven by demand, the market share of ternary power batteries was squeezed, and room for growth was limited. The concentration of lithium resource supply declined, with marginal growth rates slowing down simultaneously. Significant demand growth drove the continued expansion of resource projects. ►Nickel: Navigating Policy Changes and Narrowing Oversupply Indonesia's nickel ore HPM adjustment: aimed at enhancing the economic value of non-nickel resources. The discussion covered scenario analysis of nickel ore prices following the implementation of the new policy, and the impact analysis of nickel ore benchmark price adjustments on MHP full costs. Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB quota: a tight balance is expected to set the tone for 2026. Global primary nickel is expected to remain in persistent oversupply. Regarding the logic behind refined nickel price trends, it was noted that policy and macro factors jointly amplified price fluctuations, while cost support elevated the long-term price floor. ►Cobalt: Shifting from Surplus to Shortage after the DRC Export Ban——Long-Term Uncertainty Remains Following the DRC policy announcement, cobalt product prices in China rose rapidly. However, high prices suppressed downstream demand, putting prices under pressure. Starting from H2 2025, the Chinese market continued destocking. Amid raw material shortages, enterprises began using MHP and recycled materials as production substitutes. MHP and recycling are expected to continue growing rapidly, effectively bridging the cobalt hydroxide gap. Cost pressure transmitted in both directions: LCO doping/ternary substitution restarted, and consumer cobalt demand is expected to decline by 10%. As persistently high cobalt prices suppress demand, if China secures 90% of the DRC quota, supplemented by MHP and recycling supply, inventory buildup could occur as early as 2026. Panel Discussion: Global Metals Market Outlook——Geopolitics Disruption, Macro Cycles and the Return of Commodity Volatility •Copper and Aluminum Price Rise, 2024-2026 •Precious Metals Storm: Silver Swung Wildly, Gold Hit Record Highs — Interest Rate Cycles, Safe-Haven Demand, and Industrial Logic •Precious Metals and Industrial Metals: Are Commodities Entering a New Cycle •Focus on Critical Minerals: Emerging Region Supply Rise and Policy Shifts, Green Transition Co-Shaping a New Narrative •Chinese Market: The 15th Five-Year Plan Moderator: Yanchen Wang, Managing Director, SMM Global UK Ltd. Panelists: Yahong Tian, Co-Head of R&D, CITIC Futures Henry Van, Head of Industrial Metals Analysis, Trafigura Sharon Ding, Head of China Basic Materials, UBS Justin William Hughes, Commodity Derivatives Distribution, Optiver Xie Shaobo, Head of China, Appian Mining Fund & independent non-executive Director, Zijin Gold International Panelists noted aluminum has great upside—its 10% price rise lags its 4%-5% supply contraction (vs. oil’s 60% price surge on 10% supply drop), with valuation recovery incomplete. They were more optimistic about copper demand, driven by real downstream demand rather than speculation; aluminum semis’ upside is underappreciated due to high oil prices. Long-term, copper and gold are key for mining investment, with scarce high-quality copper mines and solid gold fundamentals. They also discussed US tariffs, China’s metal demand resilience and overseas mining investment. Overseas mining success hinges on resource-to-reserve certainty; West Africa, Latin America, DRC and Zambia are new hotspots, while Australian/Canadian listed miners are undervalued. Enterprises must plan prudently based on risk tolerance. Geopolitical conflicts (e.g., Iran) may trigger energy crises, but current inflation control and China’s high metal consumption share weaken demand impact. Long-term, energy crises will boost electrification, expanding copper/aluminum demand. Investment depends on risk appetite and fundamental grasp. SMM Industry Analysis: Strategic Re-valuation of Minor Precious and Minor Metals in 2026 — The Case of Silver and Tungsten Silver: Market Supply-Demand Balance and Macroeconomic Volatility: Evolution and Shift in Industrial Demand, Particularly Driven by the PV Sector Tungsten: Strategic Status Upgrade - Supply Constraints and High-End Demand Driving the 2026 Price Rally Speaker: Juno Zhu, Senior Analyst of Minor and Precious Metals, SMM Juno shared insights on the strategic revaluation of tungsten and silver. Tungsten: Tungsten prices have surged over 500% since 2025; China holds over 50% of global tungsten reserves, contributes nearly 80% of global production, and possesses a complete industrial value chain; China's tungsten supply constraints in 2025: H1 mining quotas declined 6.45% YoY; global new project stagnation: limited capacity expansion in 2026, with ex-China mine development cycles of 3–5 years; domestic tungsten downstream applications: significant growth in cutting tools and PV tungsten wire in 2025; European market: persistent raw material shortages, with Rotterdam tungsten prices surging since February 2025; China's tungsten product exports: transitioning from primary products to deep-processed products; SMM analysis: the tungsten market supply-demand gap is expected to persist but narrow in 2026; prices are expected to consolidate at highs after overheating cools. Silver: Silver price fluctuations in 2026: an unexpected surge from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, where frenzied investment demand and capital liquidity completely overshadowed the impact of the industrial off-season. Shift in trade dynamics in Q1 2026: SGE-LBMA premiums reversal and a surge in imports. Demand spike in Q1 2026: the PV industry started with a recovery, and an investment boom generated a phased demand peak. PV market outlook: policy shifts in 2026 are expected to curb demand growth, with overall silver consumption remaining stable. Silver demand outlook for 2026: industrial fundamentals provide support, while investment surges serve as a tactical highlight. Silver supply outlook for 2026: mild annual growth and an expanding secondary supply share are expected to drive a tight balance in the market. Market outlook: short-term trends are expected to revert to industrial fundamentals, while the medium and long-term trajectory is expected to fluctuate at highs driven by safe-haven demand. Panel Discussion: Metals in a Fragmented World: Trading Opportunities in the Age of Instability (Physical Trading and Hedging) •Shifting Liquidity Landscape across LME, CME, and SHFE •Shipping Risks and Sanctioned Metals: Implications for LME Inventory Structure •How European CBAM is Reshaping Global Metals Trade Flows •Is the Metals Market Entering an "Era of Geopolitical Risk Premiums" •Internationalization of SHFE & GFEX: Opportunities and Challenges for Global Investors Moderator: Jean Tang, Commercial Director, SMM Panelist: Anant Jatia, Founder and Chief Investment Officer, Greenland Investment Management Bella Yu, General Manager of Marketing Department, Liyang Unilink E-commerce Co., Ltd. David Wilson, Director of Commodity Strategy, BNP Paribas Duncan Hobbs, Research Director, Concord Resources Nicholas Snowdon, Head of Metals and Mining Research, Mercuria Energy Trading SA Sabrina Qian, Director of Geared broking desk, IFCHOR GALBRAITHS Anant Jatia stated: CBAM represents a major policy shift in Europe's metals sector. It is not merely about raising trade costs, but will profoundly reshape global metal trade flows and pricing logic. CBAM officially took effect in January this year, initially covering categories such as steel and aluminum semis, with its core mechanism incorporating carbon emission intensity costs into Europe's metal pricing system. High-carbon-emission producers will need to bear additional carbon allowance costs, significantly weakening their export competitiveness to Europe, while green capacity powered by clean energy will gain a clear advantage in the European market and capture greater market share. Following the policy's implementation, the landed cost of metals in the European market will rise, sustaining a long-term regional premium similar to the aluminum premium structure in the US market. Compared with the market differentiation among LME-registered brands following CBAM's implementation, what deserves more attention are the entirely new market opportunities it creates. By sourcing low-carbon, high-quality materials, market participants can potentially capture green premiums, while the mechanism will also transform metal trading models and the global trade flow landscape. The panelists also discussed the changing liquidity landscape across LME, CME, and SHFE. They noted that liquidity in the commodity market is becoming increasingly fragmented, with copper and other products now tradable across multiple global futures exchanges. Price discovery is no longer concentrated in a single market, and the traditional pattern of one market leading gains and others following has reversed, with multi-exchange rotation driving price movements becoming the norm. Factors such as geopolitical policies and tariff adjustments have given rise to regional pricing divergence, with price movements in some markets increasingly driven by capital flows and sentiment. Policy and geopolitical events have also significantly affected the spread between futures and spot prices of metals, creating opportunities for cross-market arbitrage. Meanwhile, policies related to critical minerals supply security, regional supply shocks, and geopolitical disruptions have widened the dislocation between regional fundamentals and price signals. The metals market has entered a window of structural arbitrage opportunities, and this trend is expected to persist. Cross-market arbitrage continues to provide liquidity support to exchanges, a phenomenon broadly observed across both industrial and precious metals. In addition, the panelists engaged in in-depth discussions on the differences between exchange liquidity and industrial liquidity, as well as factors influencing metal price trends, including fundamentals, geopolitical developments, energy costs, and commodity transportation costs. Opening Remarks for Coffee Break Xu Tao, CEO of CSCI In his address, Xu Tao stated that Hong Kong serves as a vital hub in the global metals pricing and trading system, playing a key role in the aggregation of LME delivery resources and the internationalization of RMB-denominated commodities. Going forward, China Securities International will continue to leverage its role as a bridge for cross-border business, deepen collaboration with CSC Futures, and provide clients at home and abroad with efficient and professional comprehensive financial services in commodities, contributing to a higher level of opening-up of China's financial markets. Networking (Coffee Break) Acknowledgments The 2026 SMM Hong Kong Metals Forum was successfully held with special thanks to the Platinum Sponsor, China Securities International, for its strong support, as well as sincere gratitude to Liyang Unilink E-commerce Co., Ltd. for its significant contribution to the forum. Going forward, China Securities and China Securities International will continue to leverage the unique geographical and resource advantages of Hong Kong as an international financial center, deepen strategic cooperation with authoritative industry platforms such as SMM, and continuously improve the "onshore + offshore" integrated bulk commodity comprehensive service system, precisely empowering enterprises to seize market opportunities and hedge operational risks, contributing professional expertise to advancing the internationalization of China's bulk commodity market and enhancing the industry's global competitiveness. Liyang Unilink E-commerce Co., Ltd. (formerly Wuxi Stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center) has been engaged in new energy materials and critical metals supply chain services for over 20 years. Through its digital platform and offline service network, the company provides upstream and downstream clients with full-process online services including price negotiation, contract signing, contract execution, payment settlement, cargo delivery, processing, quality inspection, and after-sales services. With transparent pricing, 100% fulfillment guarantee, and strict quality control, it has established stable cooperation with over 30,000 industrial clients. In the field of critical strategic metal resources, Unilink has built a supply chain service system covering 14 critical metal varieties including indium, bismuth, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Spot delivery volumes of indium and bismuth each account for over 90% of China's consumption. For new energy materials, spot delivery volumes of nickel, cobalt, and lithium on Zhonglian Jin's platform account for 30%, 90%, and 20% of China's consumption respectively, while daily sulfur trading volume exceeds 80,000 mt. Unilink implements a service model of "payment upon delivery, cargo pick-up upon payment," effectively shortening delivery cycles, reducing enterprise operating costs, and helping upstream and downstream clients achieve stable and efficient material scheduling. Zhonglian Jin strictly adheres to national industrial policies and resource management requirements, consistently focusing on serving the real economy, fully ensuring the security and smooth operation of bulk commodity supply chains, and promoting efficient resource allocation. It has ranked among China's Top 500 Service Enterprises and China's Top 20 Growing Internet Enterprises for two consecutive years. With that, the 2026 SMM Hong Kong Metals Forum came to a successful conclusion! Thank you for your help and support for this forum~

[Indonesia Conference | SMM: Global tin market may shift to a slight surplus in 2025, but structural contradictions will dominate tin price fluctuations] Chen Peng, Senior Analyst of Tin at SMM, discussed the changes in the global tin industry chain's pattern and future development trends. In 2024, the tin market achieved a tight balance amid supply disruptions and demand differentiation, and is expected to shift to a slight surplus in 2025. However, structural contradictions (uneven recovery of regional supply, growth of emerging demand) will dominate price fluctuations. The market needs to focus on the pace of production resumptions in Myanmar, Indonesia's exports, and the semiconductor industry's recovery, while guarding against unexpected impacts from macro policies and geopolitical risks.

At the 2025 Indonesia Mining Conference & Critical Metals Conference - Tin Session , Chen Peng, Senior Tin Analyst at SMM, discussed the theme of changes in the global tin industry chain landscape and future development trends. 1. Global Tin Resource Distribution and Supply Landscape Intensified Resource Scarcity: Static Mining Lifespan Less Than 15 Years China accounts for 22% of global tin ore reserves but contributes 45% of global production, with resource development intensity exceeding critical thresholds. • Global tin resources are highly concentrated, with China, Indonesia, and Myanmar collectively accounting for over 50%. China, as the largest producer (45% of production), and Indonesia form a dual-core driving force, yet with significant differences in resource endowments. Tin Ore Segment: Global tin ore production is also primarily concentrated in countries with high reserves • Global tin ore production is mainly concentrated in countries such as China, Indonesia, Myanmar, and the DRC. • Except during the COVID-19 pandemic period, global tin ore production has consistently remained at the level of 300,000 mt in metal content annually. Tin Ore Segment: Tin ore imports continued to decline in 2025, with cumulative YoY imports for January-April 2025 at -47.98%. The contraction of tin ore supply from Myanmar has become a long-term trend. • The market generally expects that Wa State may resume production by mid-2025, but the initial increase will not exceed 10,000 mt in metal content, and it will require a 2-3 month transmission period. The progress of production resumption will be constrained by Sino-Myanmar mining trade negotiations and the centralization process in Wa State. Tin Ore Segment: Myanmar's Dominance Weakens, Diversified Landscape Accelerates • Before 2023: Myanmar once accounted for 72%-85% of China's tin ore imports. However, after the implementation of the mining ban policy in Wa State in August 2023, its supply volume plummeted. By 2024, Myanmar's import share dropped to 48.1%, and further declined to 24%-30% in 2025. The core mining area, Mansang (accounting for 80% of Myanmar's supply), remains in a state of suspension. • Emergence of Alternative Sources: Imports from Africa (DRC, Nigeria), South America (Peru, Bolivia), and Australia have increased significantly. For example, in 2025, the import share from the DRC rose to 28%, Nigeria's import share reached 11%, and Australia's imports surged by 101% YoY. The 20-day moving average of recent tin ore import profit margins has remained stable. ►Risk Point Reminder: African Supply Chain Stability to Be Verified: Operational risks at Alphamin mine in the DRC (short-term suspension in April 2025). Global Refined Tin Landscape Features "Asia-Dominated, South America-Supported, Africa-Supplemented" • In the global tin industry chain, most smelting and refining activities are concentrated near tin ore production sites. Countries such as China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Peru, Thailand, the DRC, Bolivia, and Brazil all have smelters of a certain scale, with China and Indonesia accounting for a relatively high proportion. The production resumption process in the Wa region of Myanmar has commenced, but due to the impact of earthquakes and rising policy implementation costs, the actual increase may fall short of expectations. The core contradiction in the tin ore event chain in the DRC lies in the game between geopolitical conflicts and resource dependence. Risk Points: Stability of the African supply chain to be verified: As the largest importer, China's refined tin industry chain is significantly affected by disruptions in the DRC, while the growth in demand for AI, new energy, etc., further exacerbates the supply-demand imbalance. 2. Global Tin Consumption Structure and Demand Evolution Terminal Segment: Tin Consumption Structure • In the global tin consumption structure, tin solder accounts for 48%, tin chemicals 16%, lead-acid batteries 7%, and tin alloys 7%. • In China's tin consumption structure, tin solder accounts for 67%, tin chemicals 12%, lead-acid batteries 7%, and tinplate 6%. Terminal Segment: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) shows a significant negative correlation with the real yield of 10-year US Treasuries. AI demand has driven the capacity utilisation rate of semiconductor companies to record highs. • In the past two years, the SOX has shown a significant negative correlation with the real yield of 10-year US Treasuries, primarily driven by liquidity expectations and valuation pressures. • In 2024, the capacity utilisation rate of the US computer and semiconductor industry remained stable at 76.53%-78.44%, close to the average over the past 10 years (76.72%). In specific segments, the semiconductor capacity utilisation rate reached 95% in Q1 2025, a record high, reflecting the supply-demand tension driven by AI demand. Terminal Segment: The cumulative YoY growth rate of PVC resin production has dropped back slightly, while key enterprises producing tinplate have operated smoothly throughout the year. • The construction of commercial housing is not an isolated process; it is usually accompanied by an increase in demand for building materials. Despite two consecutive years of decline in the sales area of commercial housing, completion demand and policy support (such as ensuring timely delivery of housing projects and infrastructure investment) have driven PVC consumption growth, with a "weak positive correlation" maintained between the two in the past two years. • In the past two years, the tinplate industry has exhibited a differentiated pattern of "shortage in the high-end segment and surplus in the low-end segment". Leading enterprises have consolidated their advantages through technological upgrades and export markets, while small and medium-sized enterprises face integration pressures. However, overall production has remained at a relatively stable level and is expected to maintain its current magnitude in the future. 3. Inventory Cycle and Supply Chain Resilience Building Inventory Link: China's tin ingot social inventory exhibits significant cyclical characteristics •From February to March 2025, inventory showed an alternating pattern of "increase-decrease", mainly due to the release of downstream restocking demand coupled with fluctuations in SHFE tin prices. •Inventory changes in tin ingots are highly correlated with prices, seasonal demand (e.g., the "September-October peak season"), and policy adjustments (e.g., production restrictions in smelting), exhibiting a cyclical pattern of "inventory buildup in H1 and destocking in H2". It also elaborated on the inventory levels within China's tin industry chain. 4. Changes in the Global Tin Industry Chain Landscape and Future Development Trends In 2024, the global tin market was characterized by "regional shortages and a slight global deficit" The tin market achieved a tight balance amid supply disruptions and demand differentiation in 2024, and is expected to shift towards a slight surplus in 2025. However, structural contradictions (uneven regional supply recovery, emerging demand growth) will dominate price fluctuations. The market should closely monitor the pace of production resumptions in Myanmar, Indonesia's exports, and the semiconductor industry's recovery, while guarding against unexpected shocks from macro policies and geopolitical risks. ►SMM Outlook •In 2024, the global tin ingot market was characterized by concurrent supply contraction and weak demand recovery. Affected by factors such as the suspension of mining operations in Myanmar's Wa region and delayed approval of Indonesia's export quotas, global tin ore production declined YoY. However, the release of unreported inventory and the supplementation of recycled tin alleviated supply pressures, leading to a slight increase in annual refined tin production to approximately 374,000 mt. On the demand side, weak recovery in the semiconductor industry and a slowdown in PV growth dragged down global consumption to around 373,000 mt, resulting in a supply-demand gap of approximately 11,000 mt. •In 2025, expectations for production resumptions in Myanmar (with potential output increases in H2) and full production at new projects in the DRC and China will drive supply growth. On the demand side, the upward trend in the semiconductor cycle, coupled with the application of AI technology and growth in NEVs, may increase global consumption to 375,000 mt. However, growth in traditional sectors (e.g., tinplate, home appliance exports) will slow down to 2.1%-3.5% due to trade frictions. The annual supply-demand gap may narrow to 5,100 mt, but geopolitical risks (Myanmar's political situation, Indonesia's exports) may exacerbate volatility. 》Click to view the special report on the 2025 Indonesia Mining Conference & Critical Metals Conference

【SMM Analysis: Analysis of the Global and Domestic Tin Market's Supply-Demand Fundamentals in Q1 2025】Supply Side: Multiple Factors Exacerbate Shortages, Global Tin Ore Supply is Tight In Q1, global tin ore supply was impacted by multiple shocks, including geopolitical tensions and natural disasters: Wa Region, Myanmar: Due to the 7.9 magnitude earthquake that occurred on March 28, the risk of landslides in mining areas surged, and transportation routes were damaged. As the world's third-largest tin producer (accounting for 12%-15% of global supply), Wa Region's production resumption plans were forced to be postponed, and it is expected to resume normal production at the earliest by the end of Q2...

The Q1 2025 report released by Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. showed that in Q1 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of RMB 9.729 billion, up 15.82% YoY; a net profit attributable to shareholders of publicly listed firms of RMB 499 million, up 53.08% YoY; and a net cash flow from operating activities of RMB 640 million, down 40.14% YoY. As of the end of the reporting period, the company's total assets reached RMB 36.803 billion, up 0.44% from the end of the previous year, and the net assets attributable to shareholders of publicly listed firms reached RMB 20.921 billion, up 0.35% from the end of the previous year. The Q1 2025 report of Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. indicated that during the reporting period, the market prices of the company's main metal products, including tin, copper, and zinc, increased YoY. The company seized market opportunities, fully released its production capacity, and continuously improved the synergy between mining, beneficiation, and smelting, leading to a significant YoY increase in operating performance. In Q1 2025, the total production of non-ferrous metals reached 82,200 mt, including 24,200 mt of tin, 24,400 mt of copper, 33,300 mt of zinc, and 30 mt of rare and precious metal indium ingots. Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. also disclosed the following significant events involving the company and its subsidiaries in its Q1 2025 report: 1) In January 2025, the tin branch of Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. was awarded the title of National Green Factory; Wenshan Zinc & Indium's primary indium (indium ingots) was included in the list of the fifth batch of manufacturing single-product champion enterprises in Yunnan Province; 2) In February 2025, two projects, namely the "Green Recovery Process and Equipment for Multi-Metal in Tin Smelting" by the tin branch of Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. and the "Key Technologies for Efficient Recovery of Indium Associated with Complex Zinc Concentrates and Their Industrial Application" by Wenshan Zinc & Indium Smelting Co., Ltd., won the first prize of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Science and Technology Award; 3) In April 2025, the company held a 2024 annual report performance briefing via live video streaming; on April 10, the company received a "Letter on Proposing the Implementation of Share Repurchase by Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd." from its shareholder, Yunnan Tin Group (Holding) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Yunnan Tin Holding Company"). Yunnan Tin Holding Company proposed that the company repurchase some of its issued RMB ordinary shares (A shares) through the trading system of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange via centralized bidding transactions using its own or self-raised funds, with a total repurchase amount of no less than RMB 100 million (inclusive) and no more than RMB 200 million (inclusive) to reduce the company's registered capital. Currently, relevant matters are being orderly advanced. On April 25, Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. stated in response to investor inquiries on an interactive platform that the repurchase-related matters are being orderly advanced. The 2024 annual report recently released by Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. showed that in 2024, under the strong leadership of the company's Party committee and board of directors, and closely centered around the overall task of "strengthening breakthroughs, deepening reforms, expanding markets, and stabilizing operations," the company actively overcame challenges from a complex and volatile operating environment, including intensified price fluctuations of non-ferrous metals, tight raw material supply, and continuously declining processing fees. It proactively controlled its operating pace, seized market opportunities, and achieved steady improvement in operating quality and efficiency. In 2024, the company produced a total of 361,000 mt of non-ferrous metals, including 84,800 mt of tin, 130,300 mt of copper, 144,000 mt of zinc, and 1,848 mt of lead. It also produced rare and precious metals: 127 mt of indium ingots, 1,229 kg of gold, and 145 mt of silver. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of RMB 41.973 billion, down 0.91% YoY; a net profit attributable to shareholders of publicly listed firms of RMB 1.444 billion, up 2.55% YoY; and a net profit attributable to shareholders of publicly listed firms excluding non-recurring gains and losses of RMB 1.943 billion, up 40.48% YoY. As of the end of the reporting period, the company's total assets reached RMB 36.643 billion, down 1.13% from the beginning of the year; the net assets attributable to shareholders of publicly listed firms reached RMB 20.848 billion, up 17.19% from the beginning of the year. The 2024 annual report of Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. showed that the company's main businesses include the exploration, mining, beneficiation, and smelting of metal ores such as tin, zinc, copper, and indium. Regarding the company's mineral resource reserves as of the end of the reporting period, Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. introduced that as of December 31, 2024, the company's retained resource reserves were as follows: ore reserves of 258 million mt, tin metal reserves of 626,200 mt, copper metal reserves of 1.1499 million mt, zinc metal reserves of 3.661 million mt, indium reserves of 4,821 mt, tungsten trioxide reserves of 77,800 mt, lead metal reserves of 96,300 mt, and silver reserves of 2,460 mt. In addition, Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. also introduced the company's mineral resource exploration activities during the reporting period: In 2024, the company's subsidiary mining units invested a total of RMB 101 million in exploration expenditures. A total of 52,400 mt of non-ferrous metal resources were newly discovered throughout the year (as reviewed and confirmed by a third-party expert team), including 17,600 mt of tin and 34,800 mt of copper. The specific situation is as follows: In its 2024 annual report, Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. discussed its main work objectives for 2025 as follows: The company's comprehensive budgeted operating revenue for 2025 is RMB 46.5 billion. The planned production volumes are 90,000 mt of tin, 125,000 mt of copper, 131,600 mt of zinc, and 102.3 mt of indium ingots. (This plan serves as a guiding indicator, and the final results are subject to uncertainties influenced by various internal and external environmental factors, as well as operational management. Therefore, it does not constitute a substantive commitment to operating revenue or the production volumes of various products. Investors are advised to pay attention to risks.) 》View SMM tin product spot quotes 》Subscribe to view historical price trends of SMM metal spot prices Comparing the daily average prices of SMM #1 tin spot in Q1 2025 and Q1 2024, it can be seen that the daily average price of SMM #1 tin spot in Q1 2025 was RMB 260,724.56/mt, up RMB 43,806.46/mt from the daily average price of RMB 216,918.1/mt in Q1 2024, representing a YoY increase of 20.19%. Such a significant increase is also conducive to improving the operating performance of tin enterprises. Reviewing the historical price trend of SMM #1 tin spot in 2024, it can be observed that in 2024, influenced by factors such as frequent positive macroeconomic policies in China, supply-side disruptions caused by the ban on mining in Wa State, and a slight recovery in end-use demand from consumer electronics, the average price center shifted upward compared to 2023. Among them, the average price of SMM #1 tin spot reached a new high for the year on July 11, 2024, at RMB 281,750/mt. The lowest average price for the year was RMB 205,000/mt on January 9 and 10, 2024. The average price on December 31, 2024, was RMB 246,000/mt, up RMB 35,250/mt from the average price of RMB 210,750/mt on December 29, 2023, representing an increase of 16.73%. Recently, tin prices have been fluctuating considerably in a weak trend. The US announcement of imposing "reciprocal tariffs" on multiple countries has sparked market concerns, leading to fluctuations in the US dollar index and a rise in risk-averse sentiment, which has suppressed non-ferrous metal prices. Fed Chairman Powell clearly stated that there would be no interest rate cut for the time being and warned of the dual risks of rising unemployment and high inflation facing the US economy, further exacerbating market uncertainties. The supply-demand pattern in the domestic tin ore market is tight. In terms of supply, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have pulled back, constrained by tight raw material supply, especially the lagging production resumptions in Myanmar and the recent 7.9-magnitude earthquake, which have intensified market panic over tin ore supply. In terms of demand, downstream solder enterprises are making just-in-time procurements combined with some restocking. However, the "trade-in" policy and high production schedules for home appliances provide potential support for demand. The operating rate of the tin solder industry surged to 75.81% in March and is expected to remain at a relatively high level in April. Although the news of the resumption of operations at the Bisie tin mine once boosted market confidence, overall, due to macroeconomic uncertainties, SHFE tin prices may continue to fluctuate considerably in the short term. Investors are advised to pay attention to changes in fundamentals, operate cautiously, and avoid the risk of chasing high prices. Tianfeng Securities issued a research report on April 09, recommending a "buy" rating for Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. The main reasons for the rating include: 1) The impact of impairment and supplementary payment of mining rights royalties was concentrated in Q4; 2) The simultaneous increase in volume and price, along with cost optimization, boosted the company's profitability; 3) With tight supply, tin prices are expected to remain strong, and the company is expected to benefit. Risk warnings: Macroeconomic environment risks, market price fluctuation risks, and safety and environmental protection risks. Guosen Securities issued a research report on April 08, giving Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. a rating of "outperforming the market." The main reasons for the rating include: 1) The company released its 2024 annual report; 2) Data on the production and sales volumes of core products; 3) As the world's largest refined tin producer, the company has maintained a leading position in the global tin market for a long time. Risk warnings: Risks of declining grades of core mine resources; risks of price fluctuations in non-ferrous metals.

Over the past two weeks, the tin market experienced significant fluctuations. The impact of reciprocal tariff systemic events and the news of Alphamin's resumption of production in the DRC directly pushed LME tin to a low of $28,900, while SHFE tin followed the decline to 236,000 yuan. However, due to tight domestic tin resources and the repeated tariff disputes in the US, tin prices rebounded quickly alongside the sentiment of precious metals and copper prices. Currently, SHFE tin is fluctuating above 260,000 yuan, essentially returning to the level before Alphamin's production halt. From an upstream perspective, tin prices have withstood the impacts of the M23 armed unrest in the DRC, the delayed resumption of production in Wa State due to the Myanmar earthquake, and the suspension of production at Malaysian refineries. Although the rise in tin prices was rapid, under the tight ore supply environment, the impact of systemic risks on tin prices remains significant, and the positive effects of ore-related factors are limited, indicating that the focus of tin market pricing has shifted to demand. Currently, Alphamin has begun resuming production, and Wa State will gradually recover, suggesting that attention should be paid to actual supply changes. Downstream, the new US president is considering tariffs on the semiconductor industry, and reciprocal tariffs have significantly suppressed the market value of leading enterprises in the 3C electronics sector, increasing demand uncertainty. It is now believed that demand plays a larger role in tin pricing. Last week, the extremely low tin prices attracted relatively limited buying in the domestic market. SMM's social inventory of tin decreased by only 342 mt, remaining at a high level of 11,600 mt. LME tin inventory increased slightly by 150 mt to 3,140 mt last week, and the 0-3 month contango widened again to $231. Looking ahead, the global tin market is fully loaded with supply themes. Under the broader trend, LME tin has not been spared. A stronger rally in LME tin, approaching record levels, must be supported by demand resonance, but current consumption is moderate. As a minor commodity, tin is noticeably sensitive. Last week's extremely low prices attracted limited buying, and the destocking of social inventory was below expectations. It is inclined that SHFE tin is in a rebound trend, with resistance above 265,000-270,000 yuan. It is recommended to short on rallies and wait for supply changes.