Recycling Industry Events This Week (December. 29-31)

Recycling Industry Events This Week (December. 29-31)

This month, Rio Tinto stated during its earnings conference call that with all its owned projects progressing as planned, the company's lithium production capacity is expected to reach 200,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) annually by 2028. The increase will primarily stem from the Fenix project, the expansion of Sal de Vida, and the commissioning of the Rincon and Nemaska projects. By that time, total output will exceed three times the 57,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate production achieved in 2025. Rio Tinto previously announced its entry into the ranks of major lithium producers upon acquiring Arcadium, with plans to increase capacity to over 200,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) annually by 2028. The company has now confirmed its focus on achieving this target, positioning lithium as a “significant” component within its business structure. Expansion Projects: The mechanical portion of the 10,000-ton-per-year expansion at Fenix, one of the Argentine salt lake projects, has been completed, with commissioning progress reaching 60%. The mechanical vapor recompression unit has been put into operation to support the planned first production run. The first production from the expanded capacity remains on track to commence in the second half of 2026. At the new Sal de Vida project in Argentina, with an annual capacity of 15,000 metric tons, the mechanical works have been completed and commissioning is 40% complete. Production is expected to commence in the second half of 2026, projected to increase Rio Tinto's lithium output to 61,000–64,000 metric tons LCE in 2026. Regarding future projects: The Rincon project in Argentina, with an annual capacity of 60,000 metric tons, is progressing smoothly with its initial 3,000-metric-ton-per-year plant. It is expected to reach full capacity by year-end. The 57,000-metric-ton expansion plant has completed commissioning and is currently being started up, with first production planned for 2028. It will reach full production after a three-year ramp-up period. The mine has an estimated 40-year lifespan, with operating costs positioned in the top quartile of the industry cost curve. The Nemaska project in Canada features an integrated lithium hydroxide production line with a designed capacity of 28,000 metric tons per year. The mine's engineering design is complete, with construction progress at 60%. The lithium hydroxide refinery is scheduled to commence commissioning in 2026 and achieve first production in 2028. For the Whabouchi and Galaxy mines, strategic business and capital discipline reviews are underway with Canadian partners to determine the development of one of these mines. A decision is expected in the first half of 2026 to secure an integrated spodumene supply solution for the lithium hydroxide plant by 2028. In Chile, Rio Tinto anticipates closing agreements signed with state-owned mining companies Codelco and Enami in the first half of 2026. Rio Tinto has been selected as the private partner to develop Chile's two largest undeveloped lithium resources, with projects advancing upon agreement completion.

The Middle East turmoil triggered by the US-Iran conflict has become the major geopolitical black swan for the global primary aluminum market, potentially causing millions of tonnes of supply disruptions and raising smelting costs. Coupled with risk aversion, aluminum price volatility may intensify.

The Middle East turmoil triggered by the US-Iran conflict became the largest geopolitical black swan for the global primary aluminum market, potentially causing supply disruptions at a scale of millions of mt, while also pushing up smelting costs. Coupled with market risk-averse sentiment, the volatility of aluminum prices may be amplified. Going forward, it is necessary to remain vigilant against risks such as escalation of conflicts, strait blockades, and raw material supply interruptions, as well as further impacts on aluminum prices from macroeconomic disturbances, and to prudently address the operational and investment risks brought about by fluctuations in the supply chain.

February 25, 2026— AMG Critical Materials Inc. announced adjusted EBITDA of $235 million for the year 2025, representing a 40% increase from $168 million in 2024, primarily driven by strong performance in its antimony and engineering businesses. The company concluded the year with a robust balance sheet, highlighted by total liquidity of $484 million as of December 31, 2025. The refinery in Bitterfeld has continued to ramp up its production, producing in specification battery-grade lithium hydroxide and progressing with customer qualification as planned.AMG has dispatched kilogram samples to all cathode active materials (CAM) manufacturers with a footprint in Europe at the end of 2025, initiating the first stage of qualification. Based on customer feedback, it is anticipateed that it will move on to the next stage of qualification involving the shipment of tons in the first half of 2026, and expect to reach full production capacity in the second half of 2026. AMG Lithium is starting engineering on a 5,000-ton lithium carbonate to lithium hydroxide conversion plant at its Bitterfeld site. This plant will be designed to accept recycled lithium carbonate, and convert it to technical-grade hydroxide for use in Bitterfeld’s main upgrading facility. The plant’s capital cost is expected to be $50 million, and as announced in December 2025, 20% of the costs of the plant will be supported by a funding grant from the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. The fourth quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA decreased 87% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, primarily due to the lower lithium concentrate volumes in the current quarter and higher mining costs related to poor quality ore. Full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA decreased from $24 million to $12 million, driven primarily by the 16% decrease in annual average lithium prices in 2025 compared to 2024, as well as the lower lithium concentrate sales volumes in the current period. During the fourth quarter of 2025, a total of 28,326 dry metric tons (“dmt”) of lithium concentrates were sold, 84% more than the 15,409 dmt in the third quarter of 2025, but 15% less than the 33,492 dmt in the fourth quarter of 2024. During the quarter, poor quality ore caused recoveries to drop, reducing production volumes. During 2025, a total of 69,180 dmt of lithium concentrates were sold, 22% less than the 88,966 dmt in 2024, due primarily to the failure of one piece of equipment in the second quarter of 2025 associated with our expansion project. The average realized sales price was $689/dmt CIF China for the fourth quarter of 2025, and the average realized sales price for the year was $632/dmt CIF China. The average cost per ton for the current quarter was $489/dmt CIF China. The average cost per ton increased from $290/dmt in the fourth quarter of 2024 due to the lower volumes and higher cost of mining activities in the current quarter. The average cost per ton for full year 2025 was $488/dmt CIF China compared to $458/dmt CIF China for 2024.