[SMM Analysis] Sulphuric Acid: A Key Variable Reshaping Copper Pricing Logic

The International Copper Association (ICA) announced that Indonesian mining and copper smelting company PT Amman Mineral Nusa Tenggara (AMMAN) has officially joined the association, becoming the first member headquartered in Southeast Asia. Indonesia has been accelerating downstream copper processing and domestic smelting expansion in recent years, strengthening Southeast Asia’s role in the global copper supply chain. Increasing investment in copper smelting, fabrication and energy-transition related sectors is also reinforcing the region’s importance in refined copper supply, copper product exports, and demand from AI infrastructure and power grid development.

On April 20 (Monday), two industry sources said that Zambia's two largest copper smelters and sulphuric acid producers plan to carry out extended maintenance shutdowns later this year, which will further squeeze the country's copper production and the supply of sulphuric acid used to process copper and cobalt. The Iran war has disrupted global supplies of this critical acid and other leaching chemicals, forcing mines in neighboring Congo, the world's largest cobalt producer and second-largest copper producer, to reduce usage or consider production cuts. Zambia's mining ministry said that, as Africa's second-largest producer of critical metals needed for clean energy technologies, the country's copper smelters generate approximately 2 million mt of sulphuric acid annually, mainly as a by-product for use by local mines, with the surplus exported to the DRC. First Quantum Minerals' country head in Zambia said that Zambia's own sulphuric acid inventory had been severely depleted, leaving virtually no export capacity. Meanwhile, miners in neighboring DRC were also struggling to cope with tightening chemical supplies. *Mopani's long-overdue maintenance* A chemicals trader said that although copper smelters typically shut down for about 30 days each year for routine maintenance, Mopani and Chambishi copper mines will face longer shutdowns this year. A mining executive said Mopani copper mine had not undergone maintenance for some time and plans to shut down for three days in June, followed by an extended shutdown of approximately 40-45 days, August-mid-September. The chemicals trader said Chambishi copper mine plans to shut down for approximately two months throughout August, but did not elaborate on the reasons for the planned extended shutdown. Zambia tightened controls on sulphuric acid exports this month, requiring traders to obtain permits. The country said the move was aimed at protecting domestic industries. First Quantum's Zambia country director Anthony Mukutuma said the measures were reasonable but exports were unlikely in the short term. *Global copper supply expected to decline* Global copper supply will tighten this year as years of underinvestment have constrained mine production growth. Zambia produced 890,346 mt of the red metal last year, falling short of the 1 million mt target. Meanwhile, according to shipping data, Congo's copper exports declined in Q1 this year. The mining executive said Mopani copper mine was operating well below its 225,000 mt finished copper capacity due to a shortage of copper concentrates caused by years of underinvestment. The executive said the main owner, UAE-based International Resources Holding, was simultaneously developing and mining the mine, which forced intermittent production stoppages and further constrained output. (Wenhua Consolidated)

On April 16 (Thursday), a document showed that Codelco and global miner Anglo American plan to separately submit environmental study reports to regulators for their proposed shared Andina-Los Bronces copper mine in Chile, using what they called an "unprecedented" dual-track model to streamline the approval process. The document showed that the two companies plan to submit two essentially identical applications in December for a copper mine to be jointly operated by both parties. Chile is currently the world's largest copper-producing country. Against the backdrop of an anticipated tightening in global copper supply, this model could serve as a blueprint for other major miners looking to share infrastructure and operations to boost production. The model would also allow Codelco and Anglo American to move faster and reduce risks. Codelco and Anglo American finalised this cooperation agreement in September 2025, planning to increase annual copper production by approximately 120,000 mt from 2030 to 2051, creating at least $5 billion in pre-tax value. ***"Mirror" Applications*** In areas where operations will overlap, the two companies proposed adopting identical environmental protection measures for each miner. A presentation document showed that they considered a single application submission legally unfeasible, as the Chilean constitution requires Codelco to retain ownership of its mining concessions. The two companies had also considered submitting three applications: one from each miner to extend the life of their respective mines, and a third from a joint entity responsible for operating the shared project. They ruled out this option, as it would require the enterprises to relinquish their existing open-pit mine environmental protection permits to make way for the merged mine. This "dual-track structure" also makes it possible for the two mines to resume independent operations in the future. ***On-Site Operations*** The documents detailed the plan to create a single mine site from the existing operations. Anglo American's Los Bronces mine is adjacent to Codelco's Andina mine. The two companies' plans showed that the rock barrier between them will also be mined, forming a single operating pit while keeping the project essentially within the existing footprint of the mines. A document showed that ore extracted from the shared mine site will be alternately sent to the Los Bronces and Andina processing plants, while waste rock will be dumped in each company's respective waste rock piles. To operate the two mines as an integrated system, modifications to waste rock piles, tailings facilities, pipelines, and supporting infrastructure are still required. The two companies stated that shared infrastructure can avoid redundant construction, reduce freshwater consumption, and alleviate pressure on the surrounding environment. ***Risks of a "Shared" Mine*** The two companies also identified significant risks, such as the need for close coordination with regulators, which could put pressure on Chile's already slow environmental review system. They emphasised that the project has "a very high level of public attention" and that there is a risk that environmentalists and affected communities may argue that the two reviews obscure the scale of the impacts. The Los Bronces mine has been accused for years of impacting air quality, water use, and glaciers in the high Andes region where it is located. Although Codelco and Anglo American believe the dual-track approach can reduce the risk of impacts being underestimated, they also acknowledged that it could lead to duplication of environmental protection management measures. (Wenhua Consolidated)

Ivanhoe Mines (TSX: IVN) founder and co-chairman Robert Friedland is warning that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have a “profound” effect on global supply chains, hobbling copper producers by driving up sulphur and sulphuric acid prices and causing shortages.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,181.5/mt, fluctuated downward in early trading to touch a low of $13,139.5/mt, then the price center moved up steadily to reach a high of $13,305/mt near the end of the session, ultimately closing at $13,296/mt, up 1.31%, with trading volume at 25,300 lots and open interest at 289,300 lots, down 2,580 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at and touched a low of 101,580 yuan/mt, then the price center surged upward to probe 102,220 yuan/mt, before moving sideways to ultimately close at 102,150 yuan/mt, up 1.44%, with trading volume at 42,000 lots and open interest at 165,300 lots, down 2,780 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.