SMM, February 28th， Driven by the global clean energy transition, the energy storage industry is achieving steady growth. Its core value lies in effectively mitigating the inherent intermittency and volatility of renewable energy sources like wind and solar power, providing critical assurance for stable clean electricity output. This development trend will sustainably drive demand for key metals across the energy storage supply chain. As one of the core materials, aluminum applications in energy storage systems primarily focus on aluminum sheets, strips, foils, and extrusions. I. Scale of Aluminum Consumption in ESS According to SMM calculations, each 1GWh energy storage system consumes approximately 1,780 tons of aluminum , of which aluminum extrusions account for about 44%, aluminum sheets and strips account for about 39%, and aluminum foil accounts for about 18%. From the perspective of industry growth drivers, global energy storage cell production is entering a period of rapid growth: According to SMM estimates, the global demand for energy storage cells will be approximately 559 GWh in 2025, and is expected to reach 779 GWh in 2026, with a year-on-year increase of 39%; even as the base expands, the annual demand from 2027 to 2030 will still maintain a growth rate of over 20%. In terms of aluminum demand, Chinese enterprises dominate the energy storage market, driving increased domestic aluminum consumption. SMM research indicates China's energy storage battery cabinet shipments will reach approximately 400GWh in 2025, accounting for over 80% of global share. Based on SMM's calculation of 1,780 tons of aluminum per GWh for energy storage systems and global battery cabinet shipments, the global aluminum demand for energy storage systems in 2025 will reach 850,000 tons, with China consuming approximately 710,000 tons. Domestic demand for aluminum in energy storage is projected to increase by 280,000 tons in 2026. However, it should be noted that with the continuous iteration of large-cell technology, the unit consumption of aluminum structural components in energy storage systems has room for reduction. In the long term, there is still potential for optimizing aluminum consumption per unit. II. Calculation of Aluminum Profile Materials per Unit of ESS Due to design variations across different energy storage products, this section separates aluminum consumption calculations for energy storage cells from other system components . 1.Core Application Scenarios of Aluminum Materials in EES Aluminum materials, with advantages such as lightweight, corrosion resistance, and excellent processing performance, have been deeply integrated into the core components of ESS, with their main applications concentrated in three major areas: Energy Storage Cell Component: Primarily used for cell aluminum foil, aluminum casings, and tabs. Pack Component : Primarily used for battery trays, liquid cooling plates, battery end plates, and battery enclosures, etc. Energy Storage System Component: Main applications include energy storage system enclosures, radiators, etc. 2.Aluminum Consumption in Energy Storage Cells Aluminum usage in energy storage cells primarily involves battery foil, aluminum casings, and tabs. Currently, the aluminum consumption per cell is approximately 615t/GWh, with aluminum foil accounting for 300-330 t/GWh. 3.Aluminum Consumption in ESS Due to variations in technical approaches and application scenarios, different manufacturers employ distinct design solutions for energy storage systems. When calculating aluminum consumption, we use industry average values: In industrial, commercial, and residential energy storage projects, each rack is on average configured with 4.5 battery packs. In grid-side energy storage projects, each rack averages 8 battery packs, with each system containing an average of 12 rack. The aluminum components of the battery pack include the tray, liquid cooling plate, box body, and end plate. The structure of the battery tray is similar to that of new energy vehicle battery trays, but the product specifications are smaller and the cross-sectional design is more simplified. SMM calculates the aluminum consumption of a single battery pack based on the average weight data of components provided by mainstream aluminum production enterprises. In addition, the core equipment of the energy storage system, the power conversion system (PCS), and its supporting radiator also need to consume aluminum materials.While aluminum enclosures exist for ESS, market research indicates steel enclosures currently dominate the market, with aluminum enclosures holding less than 20% market share. The weight range per unit is from several hundred kilograms to 2 tons. Based on the above parameter calculations: the comprehensive aluminum consumption of industrial, commercial, and residential energy storage systems is 2030 tons/GWh,while for grid-side energy storage systems it is 1,720 tons/GWh. Weighted by the shipment share of different energy storage system types, the final comprehensive aluminum consumption for energy storage systems is calculated as 1,780 t/GWh. 4.Consumption Structure of Aluminum Materials in Energy Storage Systems From a production process perspective, the manufacturing methods for core components such as aluminum casings and liquid cooling plates encompass multiple pathways including sheet metal stamping, profile processing, and casting. This section breaks down the consumption structure of aluminum material categories in energy storage systems based on the proportion of mainstream process applications: aluminum extrusions account for approximately 44%, aluminum sheets and strips account for approximately 39%, and aluminum foil accounts for approximately 18%.

On May 15 (Thursday), renowned investment bank JP Morgan forecast that the average copper price for the second half of the year (H2) would be $9,225 per metric ton (mt), and the average aluminum price would be $2,325 per mt. The bank noted that the better-than-expected easing of US-China trade tensions was a key factor in reducing the likelihood of an economic recession, thereby mitigating the downside risks to demand and prices for these two base metals. The US and China have revoked, suspended, or adjusted tariff hikes in accordance with the consensus reached in high-level economic and trade talks, steering the trade conflict in a positive direction. JP Morgan pointed out that in the short term, prices may rise further as Chinese buyers continue to make advance purchases following the easing of tariffs. In a research report, the bank stated, "As demand eventually slows down, we also see that the tight micro fundamentals for metals like copper will gradually ease. Since the macro-driven sell-off in early April, micro fundamentals have been supporting prices." The bank further forecast that with the US imposing additional tariffs on copper imported under Section 232, leading to a reduction in the volume of surplus goods shipped to the US, more supply will flow into Asia in the coming months. Although the bank warned that copper prices exceeding $9,500 could trigger a price-sensitive reaction, it added that aluminum's low visible inventory coverage rate remains a supportive micro factor. However, JP Morgan stated that a significant decline in automotive demand, which accounts for 25% of global aluminum demand, could lead to a drop in aluminum prices later this year. At 14:45 Beijing time, three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell by $84 or 0.87% to $9,522.50 per mt, while three-month aluminum dropped by $20.5 or 0.81% to $2,508 per mt.

On April 16, at the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference & Aluminum Industry Expo - Alumina and Aluminum Raw Materials Forum, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), SMM Metal Exchange Center, and Shandong Aisi Information Technology Co., Ltd., and co-organized by Zhongyifeng Jinyi (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. and Lezhi County Qianrun Investment Promotion Service Co., Ltd., Ding Long, General Manager of the Asia Market Department at Metro Mining Limited, Australia, provided an overview of Metro Mining and shared insights into the potential impact of Indonesia's new alumina production on China's alumina market. Indonesia's Alumina Capacity and Planning As of 2025, Indonesia has 11 alumina projects under construction or planned, with a total capacity of 25.5 million mt. Key Periods: 2024-2025: Approximately 8.5 million mt of new capacity (including production resumptions). After 2025: Over 10 million mt of new capacity is planned. Regional Distribution and Progress of Indonesia's Alumina Capacity Key Region: West Kalimantan (accounting for over 60% of planned projects). Projects with Rapid Progress: •Mempawah Alumina Refinery (3 million mt, with Phase 1 of 1 million mt commissioned in September 2024). •Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesia Base: Total alumina capacity has reached 2 million mt (1 million mt each for Phase 1 and Phase 2), with actual production reaching 1.91 million mt in 2023, accounting for 34.9% of the Southeast Asian market share. The new 2 million mt alumina expansion project is progressing as planned and is expected to be commissioned in 2026. •Jinjiang Group's PT BAP: Total planned capacity of 4.5 million mt/year. Phase 1, a 1 million mt/year alumina refinery, was officially commissioned in January 2025 and is entering the ramp-up stage; Phase 2 (2 million mt/year) is planned to commence in 2026. •A senior executive from Xinfa revealed that Xinfa is preparing to collaborate with local Indonesian enterprises to build power plants and aluminum enterprises. Feasibility studies are currently underway. East Hope Group to Invest in Indonesia's Aluminum Industry Key Region: West Kalimantan (accounting for over 60% of planned projects). East Hope Group: Will launch a 6 million mt alumina and 2.4 million mt aluminum project in West Kalimantan, Indonesia. The 6 million mt alumina project, located in Pontianak, West Kalimantan, will leverage the geographical advantages of being "near the port and near the mine" by constructing its own terminal and power plant, forming a closed-loop system of "bauxite mining - alumina smelting - aluminum production." The project will adopt the world's most advanced technology to ensure "ultra-low emissions" and green production, creating 3,000-3,500 jobs. The project will be constructed in three phases, with the first phase of 2 million mt capacity planned for commissioning in 2028. This will directly reduce domestic aluminum enterprises' raw material procurement costs by approximately 15% and mitigate supply chain risks associated with the over-concentration of bauxite sources in Guinea. Risks and Challenges in Investing in Indonesia's Alumina Industry Infrastructure Backwardness: Unstable power supply and high logistics and transportation costs in remote mining areas directly affect production efficiency and operating costs. Environmental Pressures: Stringent government environmental regulations require significant investment in environmental protection facility upgrades, such as waste (e.g., red mud) treatment to meet standards. Policy and Approval Risks: Projects require approval from both Indonesian and domestic governments, and policy adjustments may lead to project delays or terminations. Political and Economic Instability: Includes local separatism, exchange rate fluctuations, inflation risks, and policy uncertainties. Labor Skill Limitations: Alumina production requires skilled workers, but local labor skills are insufficient, and restrictions on foreign labor increase employment costs. Supply Chain Challenges: Poor management of bauxite mining may lead to supply disruptions, and inefficient logistics affect raw material transportation. Natural Disaster Risks: Indonesia is located in the Pacific Ring of Fire, and natural disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis may threaten project safety. Australia Has a Fully Integrated Aluminum Industry But has surplus bauxite available for export to China. History of Bauxite Mining on the Weipa Plateau COMALCO commenced production in Weipa in 1963; signed its first long-term bauxite contract with China from Weipa in 2008; in 2018, Metro established the Hill Alumina Mine 100 km north of Weipa; Weipa Plateau bauxite grade: 50%+ alumina, 8%-12% silica; Metro has 130 million mt of resources; high-alumina bauxite, direct shipping ore; 2025 target to expand to 7 million mt annual production; Metro is Australia's only pure bauxite producer, not producing alumina to compete with its customers in the market. Northern Australian Bauxite Offers Significant Maritime Advantages Shipping time to China: 45 days from Guinea compared to 10 days from northern Australia. Australia's Bauxite Resources Additionally, it provided an overview of the 2024 alumina market disruptions. China's Alumina Trade China's alumina imports are expected to decline. China plays a crucial role in balancing the ROW alumina market. During periods of severe shortages, as seen in 2018, China became a net exporter. After Australia implemented an alumina export ban in 2022, China also increased its alumina exports to Russia. 4-6 mt of bauxite can produce 1 mt of aluminum Global aluminum demand is expected to grow by approximately 40% by 2030 Aluminum is a key metal for long-term renewable energy generation/storage, electric vehicles, and electrification. "By 2030, aluminum use in power generation will more than double that of copper" – IEA The aluminum required for the world's transition to green energy will exceed current power sector consumption by 50%. Solar PV power generation is expected to double in the next four years. By weight, aluminum accounts for 85% of the materials used in solar panels. By 2050, wind turbines will require 35 million mt of aluminum annually (4% of materials used). The EV industry will increase global aluminum consumption by 60% to 31.7 million mt by 2030. By 2030, China's aluminum consumption is expected to grow by 12.3 million mt to 56.1 million mt (47% of global demand). Asia (excluding China) aluminum consumption is expected to grow by 8.6 million mt by 2030, with approximately 61% coming from India (35%), the Middle East (19%), and Japan (7%). Aluminum: Already Essential in Modern Society, "Critical" for Energy Transition Technologies •Diverse demand for aluminum in the clean energy transition; •40% growth in aluminum demand from 2020 to 2030; •3-4% annual growth, higher than potential GDP growth. The EV industry will increase global aluminum consumption in transportation by 60% to 31.7 million mt by 2030 Aluminum is characterized by its lightweight, corrosion resistance, durability, high strength, low cost, and high electrical conductivity •It is expected that by 2030, the use of aluminum in European vehicles (both gasoline and electric) will increase from the current 197 kg to 256 kg. •EVs have a higher aluminum content compared to internal combustion engine vehicles, approximately 30% higher For example, Tesla's all-aluminum chassis is a notable example. •By 2030, the global EV fleet is expected to reach 40 million units, a transformation that will revolutionize the automotive industry and significantly boost aluminum demand. •In EV batteries, aluminum is the second most important metal element, accounting for approximately 20% of the battery by weight. Aluminum is extensively used in battery components such as the casing, cathode, and current collector. •EV charging infrastructure will also heavily rely on aluminum for transmission cables, casings, heat sinks, and screw holes. Introduction to Metro Mining Limited Since its commissioning in 2018, Metro Mining Limited has become Australia's second major, independent, and reliable bauxite producer, headquartered in Brisbane, Queensland, with mining operations on the Weipa Plateau. Under the leadership of the management team of newly appointed CEO Mr. Simon Wensley in July 2021, this Australian publicly listed firm has established a reputation for timely bauxite supply in the international financial markets, particularly in the Chinese bauxite market. Metro: Summary and Updates Despite significant impacts from typhoons, 2023 production and shipments reached a record 4.6 million wet metric tons (WMT). Total shipments in 2024 reached 5.7 million WMT, an annual record, representing a 24% increase from 2023. Ikamba demonstrated operational resilience under adverse weather conditions in the second half of December. The 2025 shipment target is 6.5 million to 7 million WMT. Production has commenced. The first shipment of bauxite in 2025 began loading on March 20. Additionally, it provided an overview of Metro's production process, the commissioning of apron feeders and vibrating screens, the commencement of operations at the Ikamba – offshore floating terminal, and the experienced leadership team and board of directors. 》Click to view the special report on the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference & Aluminum Industry Expo

On Monday, April 14, Goldman Sachs stated in a report that it lowered its aluminum price forecast for this year, as its economists revised down the economic growth projections for major global economies, including the US. The report expects aluminum prices to reach $2,300/mt by December, down from the previous forecast of $2,650/mt. By Q3 of this year, aluminum prices are expected to drop to an average of $2,000/mt. On Monday, the LME three-month aluminum price was approximately $2,392/mt. Goldman Sachs also predicts that the global aluminum market will experience a supply surplus of 580,000 mt this year, compared to its previous forecast of a shortage of 76,000 mt. By December 2026, aluminum prices are expected to reach $2,720/mt, lower than the previous forecast of $3,100/mt. The average aluminum price in 2027 is projected to be $2,800/mt, with the market expected to face a supply surplus of 722,000 mt. The investment bank also noted that global aluminum demand growth rates for this year and next are expected to be 1.1% and 2.3%, respectively, compared to its previous estimates of 2.6% and 2.4%.