(Kitco News) - The gold market continues to regain lost ground, and although the precious metal isn’t out of danger just yet, current prices still represent an attractive entry point for investors looking to build a position, according to Wells Fargo. In the bank’s mid-year outlook webinar, Sameer Samana, Head of Global Equities and Real Assets Strategy, said there is still a risk that gold prices could fall below $4,000 per ounce, but he is maintaining a long-term bullish outlook. On Tuesday, the bank raised its year-end gold target to $5,300-$5,500 an ounce and expects prices to climb further to $5,800-$6,000 by the end of 2027. The bank's strategists argue that the forces driving gold's rally are structural rather than cyclical, suggesting the current bull market still has room to run. Gold remains one of Wells Fargo's highest-conviction investment ideas, as the bank sees persistent inflation pressures, rising government debt, and elevated geopolitical uncertainty continuing to support the precious metal through 2027. "We firmly believe that gold is that additional diversifier," said Samana. "More and more in this highly uncertain world, central banks are looking around for something in addition to U.S. Treasuries and cash with respect to where to park their reserves." The outlook comes as gold continues to recover from a sharp correction after posting strong gains over the past two years, culminating in a record high in January. Spot gold last traded at $4,357.10 an ounce, up 0.61% on the day. However, gold prices are still down more than 20% from their highs at the start of the year. During the webinar, Chief Investment Officer Darrell Cronk described 2026 as being driven by "geopolitics, geography and geology," highlighting ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe alongside intensifying competition for critical resources. He said these trends are helping to reshape global investment flows and support demand for real assets. While Wells Fargo expects inflation to moderate somewhat in the second half of the year, the bank does not see a return to the low-inflation environment that characterized the decade before the pandemic. Inflation has been supported by tariffs, higher energy costs, and growing artificial intelligence-related demand, according to Cronk. That inflation outlook is one reason Wells Fargo remains skeptical that long-term Treasury yields will fall significantly from current levels. During the briefing, Cronk argued that markets continue to underestimate the impact of persistent inflation and rising fiscal deficits on bond yields. "I think the market has gotten interest rates wrong for some time now," he said, noting that Wells Fargo entered the year expecting Treasury yields to remain higher than Wall Street consensus forecasts. He added that inflation premiums, term premiums, and growth expectations all point to long-term yields remaining elevated. Those dynamics could prove particularly supportive for gold . Responding to a question about whether inflation could outpace bond yields and potentially push real yields lower, Cronk said the Federal Reserve remains constrained by its dual mandate and is unlikely to aggressively tighten policy unless inflation accelerates materially. While Wells Fargo expects inflation to cool somewhat as energy markets stabilize, the bank sees continued pressure from fiscal spending and structural investment trends. Samana said that this environment creates a compelling asymmetric opportunity for gold investors. "To me, it's one of the highest-convexity ideas that we have," he said. "For gold to not do well, you would need countries around the world to rein in their deficits and defend price stability. The fact that policymakers will always take the easy way out, to me, is the case for gold ." He added that while gold could experience periodic pullbacks, the long-term risk-reward profile remains attractive. "I think eventually you're seeing something with a six handle out in 2027," Samana said, referring to Wells Fargo's expectation that gold prices could surpass $6,000 an ounce over the next 18 months. Beyond gold , Wells Fargo is also constructive on industrial metals, arguing that artificial intelligence infrastructure spending, data center construction, and global electrification trends should continue to support demand for copper and other key materials. The bank expects both precious and industrial metals to benefit from the global race to secure strategic resources and build next-generation technologies. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-17/golds-bull-market-has-room-run-inflation-risks-fiscal-deficits-support

June 16, 2026 The price of gold continues its recovery at the start of the week. The prospect of a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran is pushing the price of oil below $80 per barrel, thereby easing concerns about inflation and interest rates. Despite the strong rebound, however, the technical picture remains weak. Hopes for peace provide relief via falling oil prices The U.S. and Iran plan to sign their peace agreement on Friday. For the price of gold, the resulting price slide in the oil market is currently the decisive driver, even overshadowing the dampening effect of easing geopolitical uncertainty. Falling energy costs reduce inflationary pressure and lessen the risk of further interest rate hikes. Gold has since pulled back significantly from its recent low of around $4,000 per ounce. Analysts, however, urge caution: political risks remain until the agreement is actually signed. A failure of the deal could quickly bring the $4,000 mark back into focus. In addition, the oil supply remains structurally tight. Since many governments drew heavily on their strategic reserves to stabilize prices during the conflict, buffers are now lacking. The oil market is therefore likely to react sensitively to new supply disruptions, which could quickly reignite inflation and interest rate concerns. Technical Analysis: Key Resistance Levels Ahead By successfully defending the $4,000 mark, gold has cleared its first hurdle. However, for a significant stabilization, the price must reclaim the 200-day moving average at around $4,450. Above that, the 50-day line awaits at around $4,581. A breakout above the interim high of May 12 at $4,773 is considered a decisive signal for a sustained upward trend. Focus on the Fed meeting Fundamentally, attention is turning to the Federal Reserve ’s first interest rate meeting under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. While the market continues to anticipate a potential rate hike by early 2027 at the latest, should Warsh signal that the Fed views the peace agreement as price-dampening and overlooks current inflation, this would provide significant relief for interest-rate-sensitive assets such as gold. For now, high real yields are limiting the precious metal’s upside potential. The current recovery of just over 3 percent underscores its high sensitivity to energy prices and interest rate expectations. Whether this leads to a genuine trend reversal now depends on the successful signing of the agreement, stabilization in the oil market, and upcoming signals from the Federal Reserve. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-continues-to-appreciate-hopes-for-peace-weigh-on-oil-prices-and-interest-rate-concerns

From June 3 to June 5, Indonesia Critical Minerals 2026 was held at the Pullman Jakarta Central Park in Jakarta, Indonesia. The conference was organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and co-organized by the Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI) , the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia , the National Economic Council of Indonesia , and MMR , in a strategic partnership with the Jakarta Futures Exchange . The conference featured six dedicated forums: the main forum, the nickel and cobalt forum, the tin forum, the coal & energy transition forum, the aluminum forum, and dedicated sub-forums, attracting 3,500+ attendees from 45 countries and regions worldwide, featuring more than 120+ speakers sharing insights on market prices, supply-demand patterns, industry policies, low-carbon development, and ESG development, etc. Additionally, SMM has also meticulously arranged two rounds of panel discussions: Senior Executives' Roadmaps to Overcome Resource, Cost, Technology & ESG Challenges The "Green Premium" Myth vs. Reality: Who Will Pay for Decarbonization in the Critical Minerals Supply Chain? Conference Background In recent years, global nickel and cobalt raw material supply has frequently encountered various disruptions: Indonesia significantly lowered its nickel ore mining quota to 260–270 million mt, tightening nickel resource release at the source; the DRC continuously reduced cobalt ore export quotas, leading to a marked contraction in tradable cobalt raw materials worldwide. Multiple supply variables continued to roil nickel and cobalt commodity futures. Meanwhile, Indonesia is not only the core hub of the global nickel industry chain but also a key production area for global new cobalt supply at this stage. Its industrial control policies, commissioning pace of capacity, and industry chain layout changes directly shape the evolution of the global nickel-cobalt supply-demand pattern. Currently, the global nickel and cobalt industry is at a critical development stage featuring supply-demand restructuring, policy innovation, and value reassessment. To accurately forecast the nickel and cobalt market trends in 2026, deeply analyze the latest industrial control details in Indonesia, and help upstream and downstream players across the industry chain break down collaboration barriers, the Nickel and Cobalt Forum was launched. The forum brought together global mines, smelters, trading firms, downstream end-users, and investment and financing institutions to conduct in-depth discussions on key topics such as market supply and demand trends, policies and regulations, production technology iteration, and cross-border industrial cooperation, jointly exploring new growth drivers for high-quality industry development. Click to view the conference photo gallery June 4: Keynote Speeches Keynote Speech: Mining Regulatory Outlook: RKAB Quota Planning and Indonesia's Next-Phase Downstream Mineral Expansion Path Guest Speaker: Totoh Abdul Fatah, Secretary General of the Directorate General of Mineral and Coal, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Totoh Abdul Fatah noted that RKAB is the key policy instrument for Indonesia to regulate mineral output, coordinate the orderly rollout of industries, and align with the nation's downstream industrialization priorities. Indonesia is endowed with exceptional mineral and coal resources, with significant reserves and capacity in several key strategic commodities including nickel, cobalt, copper, tin, bauxite, gold and silver, and iron ore. Leveraging these unique resource advantages, Indonesia holds a critical strategic position in the global mineral supply chain, and its value is especially prominent in the energy transition wave, providing strong support for the development of power batteries, renewable energy equipment, and high-end manufacturing. The next phase of downstream mineral development is not about curbing growth, but about improving development quality, clarifying development direction, strengthening regulatory management, and reinforcing the sustainability of growth. Future smelter layout must match ore supply capability, be aligned with resource conservation, and coordinate multiple factors including energy infrastructure readiness, environmental protection access standards, and domestic industry value addition. In light of these considerations, the Indonesian government is promoting an industrial logic shift from pure capacity expansion to strategic optimization of resource allocation, ensuring that mineral resources are precisely directed to industry segments that can maximize national economic benefits. Indonesia's downstream mineral industrialization has made concrete progress. Currently, 14 smelters are in operation, primarily producing products such as nickel oxide, pig iron, and copper cathode. Covering both existing operating plants and new projects under construction, the entire industry chain has attracted a total realized investment of $7.849 billion. Breakdown: nickel sector investment of $2.535 billion, aluminum sector $2.181 billion, iron ore projects $47 million, and copper sector $3.084 billion. This is continuously improving the supporting system of the domestic mineral industry chain. This progress demonstrates that Indonesia's downstream mineral policy has achieved tangible results. However, challenges remain for the industry: not only must new smelting projects be completed and commissioned on schedule, but they also require stable supporting supply to achieve efficient operations, green and low-carbon production, and deep integration into the domestic industry chain value system. Indonesia's development direction is very clear: the downstream transformation of minerals will continue to advance, and during the implementation process, policy enforcement constraints and top-level strategic guidance will be further strengthened. The RKAB management system and ore source allocation control rules are key to building a robust and more resilient industrial ecosystem. Future smelting project planning needs to coordinate four key dimensions: sustainable resource development, supply-demand market equilibrium, ESG compliance implementation, and enhancement of national value added. Indonesia has always been open to quality investment, especially high-quality investment, relying on foreign capital to achieve technology transfer and localization, expand local employment, and support long-term economic growth. In other words, Indonesia's industrial development not only pursues growth, but is committed to achieving high-quality growth that is compliant, sustainable, and globally competitive. Keynote Speech: Nickel at a Crossroads：A Five-Year Outlook on Global Nickel — Navigating Policy, Supply, and Demand Shifts Speaker: Thomas Feng, Head of Industry Research, Shanghai Metals Market Feng projects that the global primary nickel market will show a supply deficit in 2026, continue the oversupply trend in 2027, and shift to a tight balance in 2029. Regarding refined nickel prices, on the cost side, global sulfur supply and demand will face a persistent deficit in the next 2–3 years. In the case of short-term strait blockades, sulfur prices remain high, strengthening the cost support for the sulfur-MHP-refined nickel chain. From a macro perspective, the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has triggered wild swings in energy prices, pushing up inflation expectations. In the short term, global commodity prices will face considerable fluctuations. In the long term, global geopolitical uncertainty may become the new normal in the future, increasing the volatility of refined nickel prices. Nickel Ore Upstream Repricing: Indonesia's Benchmark Price Raise, Quota Tightening, and Increased Dependence on the Philippines Indonesia Nickel Ore RKAB Quotas: Tight Balance Emerges as the 2026 Main Theme According to SMM analysis, following the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources' (ESDM) official denial of market rumors that RKAB production quotas would be raised across the board by 25%–30%, the government will handle supplementary quotas under strict case-by-case reviews starting from H2 2026, evaluating each miner's compliance, capacity, and resource reserves. At its core, this constitutes a routine and orderly optimisation of the existing 260–270 million wmt quota cap, paving the way for a more stable and sustainable market environment. Supply RKAB Approval Progress: As of April, Indonesia's cumulative approved RKAB quotas stand at 240 million wmt. SMM expects that, under expectations of continued nickel ore supply tightening, supplementary quotas around mid-year 2026 will be approximately 15%. Philippine Import Driver: SMM expects that this year, Indonesia's nickel ore imports from the Philippines will rise from approximately 15 million in 2025 to 22 million. Tightness in the domestic trade nickel ore supply will accelerate supplementation through imports from the Philippines. Demand Affected by the tight sulfur supply, MHP output has fallen short of earlier expectations. As a result, Indonesia's nickel ore demand for full-year 2026 is expected to be reduced to 303 million wmt. In 2026, actual nickel ore production will remain constrained by factors such as the rainy season and the pace of RKAB quota approvals, leaving overall output below theoretical supply levels. Panel Discussion: Upstream Opportunities & Challenges for Nickel Mine Owners Moderator: Enzo Brooklyn, Senior Nickel Analyst, SMM Panelists: Luca Maiotti, Policy Analyst, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Aldo Namora, President Director, PT Ceria Metalindo Prima Jerome Baudelet, CEO, Eramet Indonesia Patrick Lim, Country Head, HyperStrong Indonesia Keynote Speech: Achieving Energy Efficiency and Operational Success: The MMD Approach at Mah Moe Speaker: Fuad Budidarma Pratama, General Manager, MMD Mining Machinery Indonesia Keynote Speech: Global Nickel Market Outlook Speaker: Ricardo Ferreira, Director of Market Research and Statistics, International Nickel Study Group (INSG) Ricardo Ferreira noted that global primary nickel production is estimated to have declined by approximately 4% YoY, measured across the full chain from raw ore mining to finished primary nickel products. Most of this decrease originated from Indonesia, while expectations also pointed to a pullback in Chinese nickel output. According to the monthly bulletin released earlier, global primary nickel already edged down by about 1% in Q1, with Indonesia down roughly 3% and China down about 1%. Keynote Speech: New Refining Technologies for Laterite Nickel and Spent Batteries Speaker: Dr. Chunwei Liu, Managing Director of Resource Extraction, Botree Recycling Technologies Distribution of Laterite Nickel Ore Resources Laterite nickel ore accounts for 55% of global nickel resources and is the main source of nickel for industrial production worldwide. With the continuous development and promotion of high-nickel batteries, market demand for nickel—and consequently for laterite nickel ore processing—has grown significantly. Geographic concentration: Mainly distributed in tropical countries within 30° north and south of the equator. Three core regions: Southeast Asia: Indonesia, the Philippines (major laterite nickel ore producing areas). Americas: Cuba, Brazil. Oceania: Australia, New Caledonia. Panel Discussion: Nickel Price Volatility, Product Spreads, and Policy Shifts: What Will Define the Market in the next 5 years? Moderator: Slupek Kamila, Secretary-General, INSG Panelists: Jim Lennon, Analyst, Macquarie Septian Hario Seto, Member, National Economic Council Republic of Indonesia Denis Sharypin, Strategic Marketing Director, Norilsk Nickel Edric Koh, Head of Corporate Sales, Asia, London Metal Exchange Mark Selby, CEO & Director, Canada Nickel Company Keynote Speech: Korean Battery Supply Chain Strategy and Indonesia's Role Speaker: James (IKHWAN) Choi, Country Manager, Korea Office, SMM Korea Office Keynote Speech: Retreat or Evolve? The Counter-Attack of High-Nickel Batteries under the LFP Siege: Solid State, 4680, and the "Range Anxiety" Premium Speaker: Jared Zhu, Head of Consulting, Renewable Energy & Non-ferrous Metals, Shanghai Metals Market Jared noted that LFP batteries have steadily increased their market share in power battery and energy storage markets in recent years. With the rapid development of emerging sectors such as humanoid robots, industrial robots, and electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOL), ternary batteries, leveraging their performance advantages, are more competitive than LFP batteries. Solid-state batteries are regarded by the industry as a must-win field for future competition, but it is worth noting that this new technology, capable of rewriting industry rules, still has a long development cycle before full commercialization. Positioning in the LFP Era LFP Accelerates Replacement of Ni-Co-Mn in Energy Storage and EVs, Leading in Scale and Growth SMM forecasts the global share of EV power battery types from 2026 to 2027, expecting LFP batteries to account for around 68% in 2026, with that ratio rising to about 70% in 2027. For ESS battery types, from 2022 to 2025, the share of LFP batteries in global ESS batteries continued to rise, and in 2026, it is expected to increase to around 99%. Keynote Speech: QMAG - Market Leader of Calcined Magnesia for Nickel/Cobalt MHP Production Speaker: Christoph Beyer, Managing Director of Queensland Magnesia (QMAG) Dr. Keynote Speech: Cobalt in Focus: Powering the Next Chapter of Critical Minerals Speaker: Dinah McLeod, Director General, Cobalt Institute June 5: Nickel and Cobalt Forum Keynote Speeches Keynote Speech: Balancing Risk and Reward: Investing in Indonesia's Nickel and Cobalt Value Chain Speaker: Izzie Huo, Senior Research Fellow, Shanghai Metals Market Panel Discussion: Too Much Nickel? Balancing Oversupply Risks with Long-Term Investment in Indonesia Moderator: Jean Tang, Commercial Director, Shanghai Metals Market Panelists: Ali Safdar, Managing Director & Partner, BCG (Boston Consulting Group) Arif Perdana Kusumah, Chairman, Forum Industri Nikel Indonesia (FINI) Ditya Maharhani Harninda, Senior Vice President Corporate Banking 2, PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (Persero) Keynote Speech: Valve Solutions for Severe Service in HPAL Speaker: Changsong Deng, President of International Business Division, ANTIWEAR Keynote Speech: Breaking the Import Dependency: Economics and Feasibility of Pyrite-based Acid Production for Indonesia's HPAL Supply Chain Speaker: Bede Beresford Evans, President Director, PT Sumbawa Timur Mining Keynote Speech: Key Technology and Economic Analysis of AI Power Microgrid Solutions in Mining Speaker: Frank Qi, CEO, Ai Power (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. Keynote Speech: Value of Analytical Solutions in Mining Processes Speaker: Toh Tiong Yen, Sales Manager, Malvern Panalytical Keynote Speech: New Caledonia's Nickel Landscape Speaker: Gabriel Bensimon, Special Advisor to the President of the Government on Nickel and Mining-Related Matters, The Government of New Caledonia Keynote Speech: Global Flow of Nickel from Mining to End-Use Speaker: Dr. Steukers Veronique, President, Nickel Institute Primary nickel production is now dominated by Indonesia. In 2025, Indonesia produced around 50% of the world's primary nickel, compared to just 6% a decade earlier. Primary nickel production in the rest of the world declined. In 2025, primary nickel production in the rest of the world, excluding Indonesia and China, accounted for just over 20% of the global total, down from 65% a decade earlier. Indonesia and China are the core driving forces shaping the global nickel supply chain landscape. From the perspective of nickel product circulation structure, NPI, backed by Indonesia's capacity advantage, firmly dominates the circulation mainstream; in terms of global nickel raw material supply by grade, Class 2 nickel accounts for approximately 58%, Class 1 nickel for just under 30%, and nickel chemical products for the remaining around 13%. Panel Discussion: Meet the Future of ESG: Standard, Challenges and Opportunities in Mining and Processing Moderator: Katz Benjamin, Policy Analyst, OECD Panelists: Dr. Chris Schlekat, Executive Director of NIPERA, Nickel Institute Ning Wang, Manager, Sustainable Development Department, China Chamber of Commerce of Metals, Minerals & Chemicals Importers & Exporters Yumo Li, Head of ESG Office in Tsingshan Board, Tsingshan Holding Group Vinícius Mendes Ferreira, Executive Advisor for Nickel Downstreaming, PT Vale Indonesia Fan Li, Sustainability and ESG Services Manager, dss+ Tom Fairlie, Senior Sustainability Manager, Cobalt Institute

SMM Jun 12 News: Metal markets: Overnight, domestic base metals broadly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.13%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.62%, SHFE lead fell 0.74%, SHFE tin rose 1.91%. SHFE zinc fell 0.19%. SHFE nickel rose 0.25%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 1.18%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.04%. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore closed flat at 766.5 yuan/mt, hot-rolled coil (HRC) flat at 3,365 yuan/mt, stainless steel rose 1.91%, and rebar fell 0.33%. Coking coal and coke: The most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 0.33%, while the most-traded coke futures contract rose 0.35%. Overnight overseas market: LME base metals nearly all rose. LME copper rose 0.94%. LME aluminum rose 0.87%, LME lead fell 0.25%. LME zinc rose 1.64%. LME tin rose 2.01%. LME nickel rose 0.37%. Overnight precious metals : Overnight COMEX gold rose 2.43%, COMEX silver rose 4.25%. Overnight the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.75%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 2.41%. As of 7:15 on Jun 12, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [SAMR Approves Release of a Batch of Important National Standards] Recently, the State Administration for Market Regulation (Standardization Administration of China) approved the release of 389 important national standards, covering high-tech, traditional industries, environmental protection, agricultural production, and people's livelihoods. After publication, these standards will play a vital role in promoting high-quality industrial development, improving people's quality of life, and safeguarding life and property. In the high-tech sector, 33 national standards were released for artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, blockchain, etc., clarifying technical and safety specifications. Six national standards were released for industrial internet and industrial digital twins, promoting smart manufacturing upgrades. Fifteen national standards were released for spacecraft grounding requirements, manned spacecraft markings and usage requirements, and general requirements for parachute systems of civil light and small rotary-wing drones, laying a solid foundation for the large-scale application of China's aerospace equipment. (SAMR) [SHFE: Adjusting Price Limit and Margin Requirements for Gold and Silver Futures Contracts] SHFE announced that for the gold AU2609 contract, the price limit is 17%, the hedging position margin rate is 18%, and the speculative position margin rate is 19%; for the silver AG2706 contract, the price limit is 17%, the hedging position margin rate is 18%, and the speculative position margin rate is 19%. [GFEX: Matters Regarding Polysilicon Futures PS2706 Contract and Lithium Carbonate Futures LC2706 Contract] GFEX announced that for the polysilicon futures PS2706 contract, the trading fee rate is 0.025% of the transaction value, the intraday closing fee rate is 0.025% of the transaction value; the minimum order size per trade is 5 lots for opening and 1 lot for closing; non-futures company members or clients are limited to a maximum daily opening volume of 200 lots. For the lithium carbonate futures LC2706 contract, the trading fee rate is 0.032% of the transaction value, the intraday closing fee rate is 0.032% of the transaction value; the minimum order size per trade is 5 lots for opening and 1 lot for closing; non-futures company members or clients are limited to a maximum daily opening volume of 400 lots. [DCE: Trading Schedule for 2026 Dragon Boat Festival Holiday] DCE announced that the market will be closed from Jun 19 (Friday) to Jun 21 (Sunday) and resume trading on Jun 22 (Monday). There will be no night session on the evening of Jun 18 (Thursday). On Jun 22 (Monday), the call auction for all contracts will take place from 08:55 to 09:00. Night session trading will resume on the evening of Jun 22 (Monday). US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.35% to 99.69. Market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes were pushed back from December this year to January next year, with markets no longer fully pricing in a rate hike this year. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME "Fed Watch": The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through June is 98.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut is 1.5%. For the meeting through July, the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged is 91.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 7.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut is 1.4%. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the producer price index (PPI) rose 6.5% YoY in May, the largest increase since November 2022 and above the expected 6.4%; it rose 1.1% MoM, also exceeding the market forecast of 0.7%. The data echoed the consumer price index (CPI) released earlier, which also recorded the fastest pace in three years. The combination of these two inflation figures is expected to further cement market expectations that the US Fed will begin raising rates in 2026. With momentum rebuilding in the labor market, taming inflation has become the Fed's top priority for now. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Last week, US initial jobless claims increased slightly, indicating that the labor market retained resilience in early June. The US Department of Labor said on Thursday that in the week ending June 6, initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 229,000, above market expectations. Claims typically rise at the start of summer, as some states allow non-teaching staff to file for unemployment benefits during long school holidays. However, the government's model for stripping out seasonal fluctuations may not fully capture these changes. Last week, the government reported that the economy added jobs for the third straight month in May. The unemployment rate held at 4.3% for the third consecutive month. Some of the strength in job growth may be due to fewer layoffs. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: [ECB Becomes First Major Central Bank to Raise Rates Since Inflation Reemerged] The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in nearly three years, making it the first major central bank in the developed world to respond to inflation triggered by the Iran war. The bank lifted its main rate from 2% to 2.25%, a move widely expected but also highlighting the challenges faced by major economies due to rising energy prices resulting from the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors widely expect the ECB to raise rates at least once more this year. The decision also made the ECB the first major central bank to tighten monetary policy in response to rising energy prices, which have pushed eurozone inflation above 3%. The US Fed, under Chair Warsh, is expected to hold rates steady next week as Warsh faces a dilemma between Trump's demand for low rates and mounting inflationary pressure; the Bank of England is also expected to keep rates unchanged next week. (Zhitong Finance) Data: Today will see the release of Germany's final May CPI MoM, the UK's April three-month GDP MoM, UK April manufacturing output MoM, UK April seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, UK April industrial output MoM, France's final May CPI MoM, US June one-year ahead inflation expectations preliminary, and US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary, among others. Also of note: the Huawei Developer Conference will be held from Jun 12-14; Elon Musk's commercial space company SpaceX is scheduled to list on the Nasdaq on Jun 12, 2026. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures fell, with WTI crude down 4.01% and Brent crude down 4.26%. Oil prices tumbled after Trump signaled that the US and Iran are about to reach a peace deal. OPEC's monthly report showed that OPEC lowered its forecast for 2026 global oil demand growth to 970,000 bpd (previously expected at 1.17 million bpd). It raised its 2027 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.73 million bpd (previously 1.54 million bpd). OPEC+ (including former member UAE) crude oil production averaged 33.13 million bpd in May 2026, down 190,000 bpd from April, mainly due to lower Iranian output. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Additionally, CME Group announced that, pending regulatory review, it will offer 24/7 (around the clock) trading for new, smaller crude oil and gold contracts. The new crude oil contract will be one-tenth the size of CME's existing micro WTI crude oil futures contract and will launch on August 30. Around-the-clock trading for the company's existing 1-ounce gold futures contract will begin on July 26. Derek Sammann, Global Head of Commodity Markets at CME Group, said: "In the face of geopolitical uncertainty, offering appropriately sized, regulated products available 24/7 enables traders to manage risk whenever news breaks." (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM, June 9: On the metals market front: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market showed mixed performance. SHFE copper rose 0.31%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.15%, while SHFE lead fell 1.19%. SHFE zinc rose 0.3%. SHFE tin fell 0.79%. SHFE nickel fell 0.77%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.22%, and foundry aluminum main contract rose 0.15%. Overnight, ferrous metals all fell, with iron ore down 0.13%, hot-rolled coil down 0.65%, stainless steel down 1.16%, and rebar down 0.51%. In the coking coal and coke sector: the most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 6.01%, and the most-traded coke futures contract fell 3.03%. Overnight on the overseas market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper rose 0.54%. LME aluminum rose 0.11%, while LME lead fell 0.7%. LME zinc fell 0.17%. LME tin fell 2.07%. LME nickel fell 0.94%. Overnight, on the precious metals front : Overnight, COMEX gold fell 0.26%, and COMEX silver fell 1.13%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.06%, while the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.65%. As of 7:19 on June 9, overnight closing prices: Macro Front Domestically: [State Council Issues the "15th Five-Year Plan for Modernizing Emergency Response Systems"] The State Council recently issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Modernizing Emergency Response Systems," deploying tasks for work safety, disaster prevention, reduction, and relief during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The plan proposes that by 2030, significant progress will be made in modernizing China's emergency management system and capabilities, effectively establishing a governance model focused on pre-incident prevention. The centralized, unified, efficient, and authoritative emergency management system with Chinese characteristics will be further improved. The emergency command mechanism under the comprehensive safety and emergency response framework will be more robust. Capabilities for handling major and catastrophic emergencies and grassroots emergency response capacity will be significantly enhanced. The rule of law, scientific, and intelligent levels of emergency management will be substantially raised, leading to sustained stability in work safety and disaster prevention, reduction, and relief. By 2035, a major-country emergency response system with Chinese characteristics compatible with basic modernization will be established, fully realizing law-based, science-based, and smart emergency management, creating a positive interaction between high-quality development and high-level safety. (Xinhua News Agency) [Regarding Data Empowering AI Development: First Systematic Deployment at National Level] The National Data Administration released the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Action on Building High-Quality Industry Datasets," marking the first systematic deployment at the national level for data empowering artificial intelligence development. Centering on key links such as the supply, circulation, and application of high-quality industry datasets, the "Implementation Plan" deploys six major special actions. It proposes continuously advancing the construction of high-quality multi-modal datasets covering text, images, audio, and video to meet AI application needs; focusing on key directions like intelligent agents, embodied AI, and world models, requiring accelerated dataset construction; and guiding regions with suitable conditions to carry out pilot construction of data annotation innovation zones based on local circumstances. Experts stated that data is the core raw material for AI training, and high-quality datasets can accelerate improvements in large model performance. (Jin10 Data APP) [NFRA: Steadily Advance Risk Resolution for Local Small and Medium-Sized Financial Institutions, Resolutely Guard the Bottom Line Against "Implosions"] The Communist Party Committee of the National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) held an expanded meeting to study and deploy recent key tasks. The meeting emphasized the need to practically enhance the sense of responsibility and urgency in preventing and resolving financial risks. It called for steadily advancing risk resolution for local small and medium-sized financial institutions, resolutely guarding the bottom line against "implosions." Further leverage the role of the "home delivery guarantee" whitelist system and accelerate the formulation of financing systems compatible with the new model for real estate development. Actively cooperate in resolving local government debt risks and support the exit and transformation of financing platforms. Fully utilize the inter-ministerial joint meeting's comprehensive platform role, taking an overall approach to continuously improve the effectiveness of comprehensive and systematic governance for preventing and combating illegal financial activities. Closely guard against risks from external shocks and continuously improve contingency plans. (Jin10 Data APP) On the US dollar front: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.05% to 100.02. According to a survey by the New York Fed, consumer expectations for future inflation remained stable in May, which is good news for the US Fed, as officials worry that accelerating price increases could become entrenched. The report showed that consumer inflation expectations for the coming year fell by 0.1 percentage points, while three-year and five-year inflation expectations remained largely around 3%, with no significant changes. The survey also indicated relatively small changes in consumer views on labour market conditions. Consumers saw a slight decrease in the likelihood of unemployment rising further in the future. On the other hand, they also grew more pessimistic about the ease of finding a new job if needed. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool: The probability that the US Fed will hold interest rates steady through June is 98.1%, with a 1.9% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut. For July, the probability of holding rates steady is 84.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 13.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 1.6%. Morgan Stanley strategists stated in a report that the US dollar may weaken in the coming months if risk appetite rebounds and the US Fed avoids raising interest rates. They noted that positive risk sentiment is unfavorable for the dollar in an environment where rates do not rise. However, they indicated that if the US economy outperforms others, leading to larger rate hikes than elsewhere, this would be more beneficial for the dollar. "Given that both the ECB and the BOJ are expected to hike rates this month, narrowing interest rate differentials should prompt a rise in risk appetite, thereby exerting pressure on the dollar." (Jin10 Data APP) On other currencies: Shigeto Nagai, an analyst at Oxford Economics, noted in a report that the Bank of Japan is highly likely to raise its policy rate to 1% from 0.75% in June, rather than July. Due to heightened global inflation concerns and market expectations that the US Fed may hike rates in the coming year, the central bank is unlikely to delay a rate hike. "Doing so (delaying a hike) would disappoint financial markets and could lead to further depreciation of the yen," said the head of Japan economics research. However, Nagai also pointed out that uncertainty from Middle East conflicts is a significant reason for caution regarding rate hikes, given Japan's sensitivity to terms-of-trade shocks. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro Front: Data releases today include Germany's April seasonally adjusted industrial output month-on-month, Germany's April seasonally adjusted trade balance, the US May NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending May 23, the US April trade balance, US May existing home sales annualized total, US April wholesale sales month-on-month, and China's May trade balance in US dollar terms, among others. Also, attention should be paid to: Apple's WWDC developer conference, running until June 13. On the crude oil front: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 0.82% and Brent up 1.1%. Crude oil retreated after a rapid rise amid a phased easing of Middle East geopolitical tensions. However, predictive market data showed the probability of a permanent peace agreement being reached within the year declined throughout the weekend, indicating that geopolitical uncertainty has not completely dissipated. (Wall Street CN) According to Iran's Tasnim news agency, Iran responded to Trump's claims of victory, stating: "In his latest attempt to curb energy market fluctuations, Trump failed to offer a practical solution and instead resorted to the old tactic of 'verbally manufacturing victory.' He pledged to 'totally defeat' Iran within the next two weeks, attempting to link a vague political concept to economic variables in a bid to positively influence global oil markets. But it is clear that these statements are not reality-based predictions, but a psychological tool aimed at controlling oil price volatility and preventing further economic pressure on his administration as the election approaches." (Jin10 Data APP) A research report from China Securities pointed out that the market is underestimating the short- and medium-term upside risks for oil prices. In the short term, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for several weeks, forcing the shutdown of more oil wells, and prolonged closures will lead to permanent loss of some capacity. In the long term, against a backdrop of low capital expenditure, the number of US drilled-but-uncompleted wells (DUCs) and new drilling activity have repeatedly hit new lows, implying that high US crude oil production is unsustainable. Future spare supply capacity and pricing power are expected to rest in the hands of the Middle East. The market previously overly optimistically estimated the end timeline for Middle East conflicts; however, real-world contradictions have become increasingly prominent. Recently, the market has begun to gradually price in a long-term rise in oil prices, and potential inflation risks also warrant attention. (Jin10 Data APP)

Gold prices have eased and ETF inflows slowed as investors rotated back into technology stocks despite geopolitical uncertainty.