Recent Middle East conflicts have disrupted the region's booming energy storage market, a major destination for Chinese exports. To assess the real impact on Chinese supply chains and project deliveries, we must analyze baseline demand amidst these geopolitical uncertainties.

According to SMM’s latest tracking, the total planned volume of cold-rolled commercial products for this month across 31 mainstream cold-rolled coil steel mills was 4.073 million mt, up 257,500 mt from last month’s actual production of cold-rolled commercial products, an increase of 6.7%.

Geopolitical conflict in the Middle East led to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off the global sulphur supply chain (China’s import dependence exceeds 50%, with the Middle East accounting for 56%). Sulphur prices surged to 4,395 yuan/mt, directly pushing up phosphate fertiliser costs. Rigid demand from spring ploughing provided support, but China’s policies to ensure supply and stabilise prices curbed phosphate fertiliser gains。

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Middle East Geopolitical Risks Heighten Supply Concerns; Aluminum Prices to Trend Strongly Higher in the Short Term] Overall, although domestic social inventory continues to build up, the current geopolitical situation in the Middle East is the focus of global attention. If the geopolitical conflict continues, expectations for a tightening in global aluminum supply will remain strong, and aluminum prices will have strong upward momentum. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to hold up well.

SMM Nickel News, March 9: Macro and Market Updates: (1) US nonfarm payrolls in February unexpectedly fell by 92,000, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%. Nonfarm payrolls for December last year and January this year were revised down by a combined 69,000. After the data release, the implied probability of a US Fed interest rate cut in June quickly rose to about 50% (2) Minister of Finance Lan Fo’an said at an economy-themed press conference on the 6th that this year’s fiscal funding arrangements hit “new highs” in three areas; fiscal policy in 2026 will continue to maintain a more proactive stance; the central government will allocate 100 billion yuan to support fiscal-financial coordination to boost domestic demand; innovative policy tools for fiscal-financial coordination to boost domestic demand will be established, focusing on two key areas: household consumption and private investment; special funds for fiscal-financial coordination to boost domestic demand at the 100-billion-yuan level can benefit credit at the trillion-yuan level. Spot Market: On March 9, the SMM #1 refined nickel price fell by 1,600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 7,250 yuan/mt, up 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: After the morning open, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) plunged immediately, hitting a low of 132,000 yuan/mt, then rebounded sharply. As of the morning close, it was at 137,380 yuan/mt, up 0.47%. A stronger US dollar index, coupled with risk-off sentiment triggered by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, weighed on base metal prices. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract price is expected to move sideways within 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt.

Silver prices steadied into the end of the week, with the metal recovering modestly after the sharp swings seen earlier in March.