[SMM Tin Midday Review: Tin Price Center Continues to Move Higher, Open Interest of Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Surpasses 60,000 Lots]

[SMM Tin Midday Review: US Fed Decision Settles, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Shot Up Quickly in the Morning Before Pulling Back Under Pressure]

Published: Jul 29, 2026 - 3:35 AM (Kitco News) - The gold market is struggling to hold support above $4,000 and could face further selling pressure, as one bank says a recovery remains unlikely as long as the war in Iran persists. On Tuesday, commodity analysts at Commerzbank led by Thu Lan Nguyen downgraded their gold price forecast for the second time in as many months. The German bank now expects gold prices to end the year around $4,500 an ounce, down from its revised June forecast of $4,800. At the same time, Commerzbank also lowered its year-end silver price target to $67 an ounce from its previous estimate of $80 an ounce. In the report, Nguyen said the price downgrade reflects the fact that persistent inflation pressures continue to force the Federal Reserve to maintain a tightening bias. However, she added that market expectations have become too aggressive, giving gold prices some room to recover from their current lows by the end of the year. She added that gold still has a path to $5,000 an ounce in 2027 if inflation pressures moderate. However, she said the biggest factor remains the uncertainty surrounding the war with Iran, saying that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to overshadow all the bullish factors that drove gold prices to record highs at the start of the year. “This is partly because the US, as an energy exporter, benefits from the current energy crisis – as evidenced by the sharp rise in its oil exports in recent months. The risk premiums in the foreign exchange market are sending a similar signal: After Liberation Day – i.e. the introduction of extensive US tariffs by the US government – hedging against a depreciation of the dollar relative to the euro became significantly more expensive (as reflected in positive EUR-USD risk reversals, see figure below). Since the outbreak of the Iran war, however, the dollar has again been regarded as safer than the euro. As long as this remains the case, gold is unlikely to benefit disproportionately from increased demand for safe havens,” she said. Despite the heightened geopolitical uncertainty, Commerzbank said there is little evidence that the conflict is having a lasting impact on the U.S. economy. Nguyen pointed out that although near-term inflation pressures have increased, long-term inflation expectations remain anchored. She said that in this environment, it is unlikely the Federal Reserve will adopt a sufficiently aggressive monetary policy stance to alter gold's longer-term bullish outlook. “There is potential for the gold price to recover from its current level, as we consider current market expectations of Fed rate hikes to be excessive and anticipate that Fed interest rates will remain unchanged until the end of the year. The Fed is likely to raise interest rates only if inflation trends force them to do so,” she said. “Our economists’ base-case scenario, in which core inflation does not rise significantly above the assumed monthly rates consistent with the target in the coming months, remains unchanged. In this scenario, the Fed would likely refrain from raising interest rates and might even cut its key interest rate from mid-2027 onwards, as the 2% target would then be reached in spring 2027.” Nguyen explained that although gold’s months-long correction has damaged market sentiment, there are still significant long-term drivers supporting higher prices. Nguyen said the bank's long-term bullish outlook remains intact because the structural drivers that fueled gold's rally earlier this year have not disappeared. She noted that growing skepticism toward the U.S. dollar as a traditional safe-haven asset, driven by unpredictable U.S. policy, continues to support demand for bullion. At the same time, the freezing of Russia's foreign exchange reserves has prompted many central banks to reassess the security of their reserve assets, accelerating diversification into gold. Finally, mounting government debt across advanced economies has raised concerns about the long-term safety of sovereign bonds, further enhancing gold's appeal as an asset that is institutionally independent and carries no default risk. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-28/commerzbank-downgrades-gold-and-silver-prices-middle-east-conflict-takes

July 29, 2026 Following the sharp correction of recent months, the gold market continues to move through a period of consolidation. While rising bond yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and geopolitical developments continue to drive short-term price action, the underlying fundamentals remain supportive of the precious metal. In particular, sustained central bank demand and mounting fiscal challenges facing many developed economies are expected to provide long-term support for gold. Central Banks Continue to Lead Global Gold Demand Perhaps the most significant difference between today's gold market and previous decades is the role of central banks. For several consecutive years, central banks around the world have purchased approximately 1,000 tonnes of gold annually , well above the historical average. Emerging market central banks, in particular, continue to expand their gold reserves. Their objective is not short-term price appreciation but rather the diversification of foreign exchange reserves and a gradual reduction in dependence on the U.S. dollar. This steady physical demand has become an important stabilizing force, helping to support the market even during periods of price weakness. Rising Government Debt Is Back in Focus In addition to central bank buying, the rapid growth in sovereign debt is becoming an increasingly important factor for the gold market. Many developed economies continue to finance large fiscal deficits through additional borrowing, while higher interest rates are significantly increasing debt servicing costs. The United States alone will need to refinance trillions of dollars of maturing government debt over the coming years. The longer interest rates remain elevated, the greater the burden on public finances. Many market observers therefore believe that central banks could eventually face renewed pressure to ease monetary policy should inflation continue to moderate or economic growth weaken more substantially. Historically, gold has tended to perform particularly well during periods when real interest rates decline or when investors begin to question the long-term stability of fiat currencies. Geopolitical Risks Remain a Structural Support The geopolitical environment also remains challenging. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, strategic competition between the United States and China, and continued uncertainty surrounding global trade periodically increase demand for traditional safe-haven assets. Gold is no longer reacting solely to individual geopolitical events. Instead, a persistent geopolitical risk premium appears to have become embedded in the market. At the same time, rising defense spending across many countries is placing additional pressure on government budgets, further reinforcing long-term fiscal concerns that have historically supported investment demand for gold. Technical Outlook: The Bottoming Process Continues From a technical perspective, gold remains in the process of building a base. Following the sharp decline from its record high, prices have stabilized around key support levels. Several momentum indicators have begun to improve, although a decisive breakout above the next resistance levels has yet to materialize. Should gold successfully establish itself above the recent consolidation range, the market could be positioned for another leg higher. In the near term, however, volatility is likely to remain elevated as investors continue to react to changes in interest rate expectations and movements in the U.S. dollar. Conclusion In the short term, the gold market will continue to be influenced by monetary policy, U.S. dollar strength, and geopolitical developments. Over the longer term, however, the fundamental outlook remains constructive. Record central bank purchases, rising sovereign debt, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, and the prospect of lower real interest rates all continue to provide a favorable backdrop for the precious metal. The current consolidation may therefore prove to be not the end of gold's long-term bull market, but rather a pause within a broader upward trend. While short-term volatility is likely to persist, the structural drivers supporting gold remain firmly in place. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-between-interest-rates-and-central-banks-why-the-long-term-bull-market-remains-intact

July 27, 2026 The potential bottoming process in the gold market around the US$4,000 level remains highly volatile. After breaking above the downtrend line that had capped prices since the end of May, gold quickly rallied to US$4,165 before giving back almost all of those gains yesterday as tensions surrounding the Iran conflict and rising oil prices escalated once again. Price action around the psychologically important US$4,000 level therefore remains fragile and extremely volatile. One day, gold gains US$100; the next, it gives back US$100. Nevertheless, the prospects for a successful bottoming process, followed by a trend reversal and a broader recovery—or even a summer rally—remain intact. Gold Reflects the Reshaping of Global Markets Financial markets continue to be driven by an unusually dense combination of geopolitical uncertainty and structural changes in the global monetary system—and nowhere is this more evident than in the gold market. Following its record high of approximately US$5,600 per ounce in January, gold corrected sharply to just below US$4,000, pressured by profit-taking, the Iran war, rising interest rate expectations, and a modest strengthening of the U.S. dollar. During the second quarter alone, gold declined by around 14%, while silver lost approximately 22%. However, interpreting this correction as the end of gold's long-term bull market would confuse a cyclical pullback with a structural change in the market. The underlying fundamentals continue to support the view that January's record high did not mark the end of the secular bull market. Central Banks Remain the Primary Driver The underlying pillar of the gold bull market continues to be central bank demand. Over the past four years, central banks around the world have purchased an average of 1,000 tonnes of gold annually—roughly double the pace seen during the previous decade. According to the latest survey by the World Gold Council, 45% of reserve managers expect to increase their gold holdings over the next twelve months. This trend is not simply a short-term hedge against market volatility, but rather reflects a long-term strategy of diversifying away from the U.S. dollar as the sole anchor of the global monetary system. De-Dollarization Continues to Gain Momentum The broader geopolitical landscape reinforces the ongoing trend toward de-dollarization. While the United States continues its aggressive—but strategically unfocused and, under international law, illegal—military campaign and air war against Iran using the weapons of the 20th century, Tehran has responded with an asymmetric strategy. One U.S. military installation after another across the Middle East is being targeted with remarkable precision using missiles, drones, and cruise missiles. Before long, the United States may find itself running short not only of precision-guided munitions and air defense systems—including air-to-air, surface-to-air, and missile defense interceptors—but also of viable operating bases. Without functioning runways and adequate fuel supplies, the paradigm shift in modern warfare unfolding over the Persian Gulf may become impossible to ignore, even for the West. The precision of Iran's attacks is, of course, being significantly supported by China and Russia, as neither country is prepared to allow Iran to collapse. Against this backdrop, one of the most remarkable developments in recent weeks has received relatively little attention. Beginning July 24, China's largest banks—including the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC)—will suspend retail paper gold trading through the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Officially, the move is intended as a risk-management measure following a period of elevated volatility during which retail investors suffered significant losses on leveraged products. Speculative paper-gold trading is being curtailed, while physical gold ownership, gold savings plans, gold ETFs, and the reserve strategy of the People's Bank of China remain unaffected. Regardless of the official justification, the move can also be interpreted as another step away from a financial system in which Western paper markets such as COMEX and the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) facilitate price discovery through extensive leverage, allowing multiple paper claims to exist for every physical ounce of gold. By encouraging Chinese investors to shift toward physical ownership, China is gradually changing the balance of power between the paper and physical gold markets. The development recalls historical precedents such as the collapse of the London Gold Pool in 1968, although this time the transition is more likely to be gradual, orderly, and largely unnoticed. Geopolitics Meets Stagflation This monetary realignment is unfolding against a geopolitical backdrop that has become increasingly concerning even for seasoned market observers. According to the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook, the conflict in the Middle East is already weighing measurably on global economic growth, which is projected to reach only around 3.1% in 2026. At the same time, warnings from former U.S. military officials regarding Iran's asymmetric strategy against U.S. and Israeli air forces operating in the Gulf underscore how fragile the regional security architecture has become. For gold, traditionally regarded as a crisis hedge and store of value, this environment represents a structural tailwind—even if higher interest rates and persistent demand for U.S. dollar liquidity have weighed on prices in the short term. Meanwhile, the sharp rise in oil prices over the past three weeks has brought the stagflation scenario that we have repeatedly outlined back into focus. Stagflation—the toxic combination of weak economic growth, high inflation, and rising unemployment—creates a particularly difficult environment for investors, as conventional monetary policy tools often become ineffective or even counterproductive. During such periods, financial assets and fixed-income investments tend to lose purchasing power in real terms, while tangible assets such as commodities, defensive high-quality equities, and particularly gold have historically served as reliable stores of value. Gold as a Top Performer During Stagflation Every economic regime favors different asset classes. © VanEck Gold tends to perform particularly well during periods of stagflation because its value does not depend on the creditworthiness of an issuer and it cannot be eroded by negative real interest rates. When inflation remains persistently high, economic growth weakens, and confidence in fiat currencies, government bonds, and policymakers continues to deteriorate, gold regains its traditional role as a scarce, liquid, and globally recognized store of value. The experience of the 1970s illustrates this dynamic particularly well. During that decade's stagflationary environment, gold not only served as an effective hedge but also became one of the very few asset classes capable of preserving purchasing power in real terms. Gold Battles Around the US$4,000 Level – Bottoming Process Remains Intact Gold in U.S. Dollars, Daily Chart as of July 24, 2026. © Gold.de Since the latest sharp decline ended at US$4,023 on June 11, gold has been attempting to establish a bottom around the psychologically important US$4,000 level. After six weeks, this process has produced a nervous back-and-forth trading pattern and one lower low at US$3,942. At the same time, however, the bears have failed to make any decisive progress over the past six weeks. The weekly chart remains clearly oversold, while the daily chart continues to display positive divergences, suggesting at least the potential for a technical rebound. On some days, buyers regain control and push gold US$100 to US$200 higher within hours. A few days later, the bears return, quickly reclaiming most of those gains on heavy trading volume. It is a highly volatile battle in an exceptionally challenging market environment, with equity markets repeatedly coming under pressure, bond yields moving higher, and rising oil prices once again dominating the news flow. A Move Above US$4,100 Could Trigger the Next Rally The gold bulls nevertheless scored an important technical victory on Tuesday when prices broke above a downtrend line that had been in place since the end of May. Although nearly all of those gains were surrendered again on Thursday, the overall market structure has improved modestly. Should gold now manage to reclaim and hold above the US$4,100 level, another key downtrend line would be eliminated. Such a breakout could open the way toward the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart, currently located around US$4,181, followed by the declining 50-day moving average near US$4,231. If the current bottoming process ultimately develops into a confirmed trend reversal, gold could, under favorable conditions, advance toward the 200-day moving average, now situated around US$4,494. This average currently aligns closely with the broader downtrend that has been in place since the January peak and therefore remains the key technical reference for the medium-term outlook. Overall, our expectations remain unchanged. We continue to believe that the bottoming process is likely to succeed and still see a recovery toward US$4,200 and US$4,300, with a subsequent move toward approximately US$4,500 remaining a realistic possibility. However, we are not yet prepared to declare that the broader correction has come to an end. Conclusion: Nervous, but the Bottoming Process Remains Intact While the gold market continues to be driven in the short term by geopolitical developments, interest-rate expectations, U.S. dollar movements, and oil prices, the broader picture remains supportive for precious metals. The fact that gold has so far managed to defend the US$4,000 area despite the recent sharp swings is less a sign of weakness than evidence of a market attracting value-oriented buyers following a significant correction. As long as central banks continue to accumulate gold, geopolitical risks remain elevated, and real interest rates fail to provide a compelling alternative, the longer-term market structure remains constructive. The combination of slowing economic growth, persistent inflation, and increasing global uncertainty continues to support gold's role as a monetary safe haven. Stagflation is not an environment in which investors typically chase high-growth assets. Instead, it is one in which scarcity, liquidity, and capital preservation regain importance. Historically, these have been precisely the conditions under which gold has demonstrated its greatest strength—not as a perfect predictor of the next trading session, but as a strategic hedge in an increasingly fragile economic and monetary landscape. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-nervous-but-the-bottoming-process-remains-intact

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2609 contract opened lower with a gap at 24,660 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE zinc consolidated around the daily average line, dipping to a low of 24,595 yuan/mt. Subsequently, bears reduced positions, pushing the price up to a high of 24,770 yuan/mt. At the end of the session, gains narrowed and the price maintained a fluctuating trend, finally closing down at 24,720 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt or 0.24%. Trading volume decreased to 51,828 lots, and open interest fell by 2,582 lots to 109,000 lots.