[Black Sea] Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea and Azov Sea have triggered severe maritime shipping paralysis. Following the cancellation of war risk coverage by the Russian National Reinsurance Company and a series of attacks leaving several merchant vessels sunk or damaged, shipowners are avoiding port calls or declaring force majeure. Consequently, steel billet freight rates on the Russia-Turkey route have surged to 25–35 USD/tonne, with insurance premiums skyrocketing to 10–15 USD/tonne. As shipping disruptions pose a grave threat to Turkey's import supply chain, buyers have been forced to pivot toward domestic sourcing; after Karabük raised its billet offers by 10 USD/tonne to 525–530 USD/tonne EXW, transaction volumes reached approximately 100,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, with Ukrainian iron ore shipments blocked and Russian coal diversions constrained, regional exports of steelmaking raw materials and semi-finished products have plunged into deep paralysis.

Update: 29 July 2026 June imports climb to 173.34 tons, highest since March 2024, according to customs data International gold price falls 8% in first half, while yuan-denominated price drops 10% China’s gold imports surged 89.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 as falling bullion prices, a stronger yuan and sustained demand from investors and commercial banks encouraged overseas purchases. The country imported 864.95 tons of gold between January and June, compared with 457.39 tons in the same period last year, according to figures from China’s General Administration of Customs. China imported 94.16 tons in January, up from 16.52 tons a year earlier. Imports rose to 113.18 tons in February from 76.33 tons and to 161.86 tons in March from 73.67 tons. Purchases stood at 159.84 tons in April, compared with 127.53 tons in the same month last year, before increasing to 162.55 tons in May from 99.55 tons. Imports reached 173.34 tons in June, rising from 63.79 tons a year earlier and marking the third consecutive monthly increase. The June figure was the highest since March 2024. Cheaper international prices and the appreciation of the yuan helped keep Chinese investors interested in bullion, while commercial banks increased imports to replenish inventories and meet commitments related to retail gold sales and accumulation plans. Gold accumulation plans, offered by Chinese banks, allow individuals to purchase bullion in small increments and are among the main channels through which retail investors gain exposure to the precious metal. Lower prices support investment demand The international gold price declined 8% during the first half, while the yuan-denominated price dropped 10%, according to a July 14 report by the World Gold Council, or WGC. The WGC calculations were based on the LBMA Gold Price PM, administered by ICE Benchmark Administration, and the Shanghai Benchmark Gold Price PM published by the Shanghai Gold Exchange, or SGE. Both benchmarks fell 11% in June, according to the WGC, which attributed the decline partly to hawkish messages from US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh that pushed real yields and the dollar higher. The stronger Chinese currency amplified the decline in local gold prices and made internationally sourced bullion relatively cheaper for domestic buyers, according to analysis published by Bloomberg and the WGC. The first-half decline resulted in gold’s first semiannual loss since 2021, the WGC said. Chinese gold-backed exchange-traded funds recorded net demand of 29 tons during the first half, the second-strongest first-half performance on record, according to WGC calculations based on company filings. The funds’ total assets under management stood at 243 billion yuan ($36 billion) at the end of June, while their aggregate holdings reached 277 tons, the WGC said. Chinese gold ETFs suffered record monthly outflows of 15 billion yuan ($2.2 billion) in June, reducing their holdings by 17 tons, according to the WGC. The council attributed the June outflows to weaker gold prices and rising investor interest in Chinese equities, as reflected in increased stock-market account openings. Despite the monthly outflow, Chinese gold ETFs attracted about 40 billion yuan ($5.6 billion) during the first half, the WGC said, based on data from fund company filings. Institutional investor participation and uncertainty surrounding geopolitical and economic developments also supported first-half ETF demand, according to the council. Daily average trading volumes in gold futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, or SHFE, rose by 4 tons month-on-month to 305 tons in June, according to SHFE data compiled by the WGC. The June volume remained below the 2025 average of 457 tons per day but exceeded the five-year average of 265 tons, the WGC said. Gold futures turnover averaged 386 tons per day during the first half as price volatility and increased hedging needs supported activity, according to the council’s analysis of SHFE data. Open interest in gold futures stood at 274 tons at the end of June, down 8% during the month and 13% from the end of 2025, the WGC said, citing SHFE figures. Central bank extends record buying streak Gold withdrawals from the SGE rose 36% month-on-month to 87 tons in June, according to SGE data compiled by the WGC. The council attributed the rebound to opportunistic restocking across the supply chain, continued demand for bars and coins, and comparison with May, when withdrawals fell to their lowest level in 16 years. Despite the monthly recovery, June withdrawals remained close to the lowest levels recorded during the past decade because of continued weakness in gold jewelry demand, according to the WGC. Total SGE withdrawals reached 598 tons during the first half, down 12% year-on-year and 27% below the 10-year average, the council said. The historical comparison was based on SGE data covering 2016 to 2025. The WGC said resilient bullion investment was insufficient to offset weak jewelry consumption, which made manufacturers and retailers cautious about replenishing inventories. The PBoC added 15 tons of gold to its reserves in June, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023, according to the WGC, citing figures from China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange. The June purchase brought the central bank’s first-half acquisitions to 40 tons and extended its gold-buying streak to 20 consecutive months, the longest on record, the council said. China’s official gold reserves reached 2,346 tons, equivalent to about 8% of the country’s official foreign exchange assets, according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange cited by the WGC. The central bank accumulated 82 tons of gold during the 20-month purchasing streak, according to WGC calculations based on China’s official reserve disclosures. The WGC said heightened geopolitical tensions, trade disputes and financial-market volatility continued to support gold’s appeal to central banks as an asset without credit risk. Looking ahead, the WGC said Chinese jewelry consumption was likely to remain weak during the seasonal slowdown, although stabilizing gold prices could provide some support. Source： https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/factbox-china-s-gold-imports-jump-89-in-first-half-as-prices-retreat/4012362

[7.29 Morning Meeting Minutes] The US Fed is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, and Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a press conference as usual at 2:30 a.m., which has been dubbed by the industry as the most unpredictable Fed decision. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) plunged sharply in the night session, with prices gradually rebounding in the morning session before closing at 131,660 yuan/mt, up 0.08%. The short-term trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2609) is expected to be 128,000-135,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Stopped Falling; Off-Season Sales Pressure Capped Upside in Spot Stainless Steel According to SMM’s July 29 report, SS futures generally stopped falling and regained some ground. Supported by a weaker US dollar index and broad gains in base metal futures, SS underwent a similar recovery. By market close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,515 yuan/mt. In the spot market, spot stainless steel quotes had already declined on the previous afternoon, dragged by weak futures. Today, although the recovery in SS futures boosted inquiry activity in the spot market, traders’ strong willingness to sell in the off-season limited the extent of the rebound in spot quotes. SS most-traded futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2609 was at 14,540 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 380-830 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was unchanged; the average price for cold-rolled, mill-edge 304/2B coil fell 25 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 25 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was unchanged; the quoted price for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi was unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in Wuxi and Foshan were both flat. This week, favorable macro and industry factors combined to support nickel and stainless steel futures in consolidating on a strong note. On the macro front, US inflation expectations pulled back, while continued geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran roiled market risk sentiment. On the industry front, expectations that the growth in Indonesia’s supplementary RKAB nickel ore quotas would be limited continued to ferment, effectively steadying the bottom for nickel prices and... .

As of July 27, 2026, global coal spot markets experienced intense volatility. Driven by geopolitical tensions and supply fears, European coal physical quotes stood firm at $119/t, while TTF natural gas surged by +$78.30/kcm to a 4-month high of $730.89/kcm, leaving EU underground gas storage at 54% (11 percentage points lower y-o-y). Concurrently, South African high-CV 6000 coal rose to $106-107/t, Australian high-CV 6000 thermal coal strengthened to nearly $133/t, and China's Qinhuangdao 5500 NAR spot price gained $3/t to $122/t with 9-port inventories climbing to 30.71 million tonnes. Conversely, suppressed by a sluggish steel market, the Australian HCC metallurgical coal index crashed to $222/t, and Chinese major mills implemented a RMB 50-55/t price cut on domestic coke starting July 22.

July 27, 2026 After several months of correction, the silver market is once again attracting increased investor attention. Following significant price declines earlier this year, signs of stabilization have begun to emerge. The US$60 per ounce level is increasingly developing into the key technical hurdle. A sustained breakout above this level could trigger the next leg higher, while another rejection would likely point to continued volatility in the near term. Silver Benefits from Both Industrial and Investment Demand Unlike gold, silver serves a dual purpose. In addition to its role as a precious metal and store of value, it is also an essential industrial metal. Demand from the solar industry, electronics, electric vehicles, and numerous high-tech applications remains robust, contributing to a physical market that has been operating in structural deficit for several consecutive years. Industry analysts expect this supply deficit to persist throughout 2026. The broader macroeconomic backdrop also remains supportive. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising energy prices, and growing concerns about stagflation continue to enhance the appeal of precious metals. While gold is primarily viewed as a monetary safe haven, silver also benefits from its industrial applications and therefore often responds even more dynamically to changes in the global economic outlook. US$60 Remains the Key Technical Level Following several consecutive sessions of gains, silver recently traded just below—or briefly around—the US$60 per ounce level. As a result, this price area has become the market's primary technical resistance. Many market observers believe that a sustained move above US$60 would represent an important breakout, potentially opening the door to further upside. At the same time, volatility remains elevated. Temporary pullbacks toward the US$57–58 range demonstrate that profit-taking can emerge at any time, while investor sentiment continues to react quickly to movements in Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, and geopolitical developments. Nevertheless, the short-term technical picture has improved noticeably. Several technical analysts point to strengthening momentum after silver reclaimed key moving averages during the recent recovery. Fundamentals Continue to Support the Market From a fundamental perspective, the outlook also remains constructive. The global energy transition continues to drive demand for silver in solar panels, power grids, and electronic components. At the same time, the metal is becoming increasingly important in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, data centers, and advanced electronics. Should inflation remain persistent while real interest rates begin to decline again over the medium term, both gold and silver are likely to benefit. However, silver enjoys an additional advantage: unlike gold, it is supported by both investment demand and industrial consumption. Conclusion The silver market is approaching an important decision point. In the short term, price action will continue to be driven by geopolitical developments, oil prices, the U.S. dollar, and interest-rate expectations. Over the medium to long term, however, the combination of strong industrial demand, an ongoing structural supply deficit, and an increasingly challenging macroeconomic environment continues to provide a supportive backdrop for silver. Whether this ultimately develops into the next major rally will largely depend on whether silver can establish itself convincingly above the US$60 level. A successful breakout would significantly improve the technical outlook and shift investors' attention toward the next major resistance zones. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/silver-price-approaches-a-key-turning-point-will-it-break-above-ususd60