China's stainless steel futures gave back ground sharply in the first trading week after the May Day holiday, as a sudden easing of Middle East tensions deflated the risk premium that had carried prices to recent highs. With the cost-side narrative unwinding and physical demand showing little follow-through, the market is searching for a new floor

SMM Nickel News, May 7: Macro and market news: (1) US ADP employment data for April recorded 109,000 new jobs, slightly above expectations of 99,000, while the previous reading was revised down from 62,000 to 61,000. (2) Iran's Permanent Mission to the United Nations proposed a feasible solution to the Strait of Hormuz issue: permanently ending the war, lifting the maritime blockade, and restoring normal passage. Spot market: On May 7, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 5,050 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,150 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -800-200 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract plunged sharply during the night session and hovered at lows during the morning session, closing at 148,450 yuan/mt, down 3.33%. Trump explicitly stated on the evening of May 6 that a US-Iran deal was "very likely," that the negotiation framework had been largely finalised, that the resumption of passage through the Strait of Hormuz was in sight, and that the sulphur supply crisis was expected to be resolved, leading to a sharp pullback in nickel prices. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the range of 145,000-150,000 yuan/mt, with the center likely shifting downward, as the key support below comes from the rigid cost support brought by Indonesia's new HPM policy.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,400.5/mt, touched a high of $13,462/mt early in the session before its center fluctuated downward, dipped to $13,328/mt before the center rose, and ultimately moved sideways to close at $13,391.5/mt, up 2.22%, with trading volume at 27,000 lots and open interest at 268,000 lots, an increase of 1,485 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 103,350 yuan/mt, touched a high of 103,370 yuan/mt right at the open, then its center dipped to 102,850 yuan/mt before staying high and moving sideways, ultimately closing at 103,160 yuan/mt, up 0.49%, with trading volume at 36,000 lots and open interest at 199,000 lots, a decrease of 185 lots from the previous trading day, mainly indicating bears reducing positions.

Gold has been pulled in two directions in recent weeks. On one side, rising oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions have strengthened the metal’s safe-haven appeal.

Starting from the new all-time high of USD 5,602 on January 29, the gold price has now been in a correction phase for over three months, characterized so far by two sharp downward waves, two recovery waves, and most recently by another downward wave since mid-April.

Gold demand in China surged 67 percent year-on-year to a record 207t, considerably higher than the previous quarterly record of 155t in Q2 2013