[Domestic and overseas aluminum prices see a modest simultaneous recovery; China's destocking stabilizes with limited upside room] SMM maintains its assessment that inventory will drop to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and is expected to further approach 1.2 million mt by end-June or early July. The futures market sees short-term stabilization signals, but high domestic inventory pressure remains relatively evident, which is expected to limit the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. In the short term, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly fluctuate and consolidate.
Jun 15, 2026 09:12[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: SHFE tin swung wildly throughout the week at 394,000-411,000 yuan/mt; amid a supply-demand stalemate, it is expected to continue consolidating at highs.]
Jun 15, 2026 08:54![South China Leads in Basis Repair, Guangdong-Shanghai Spot Cargo Price Spread Narrows to Zero [SMM Analysis]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/production/admin/votes/imagesqsDLb20240416161800.jpeg)
Discounts in the three regions widened to varying degrees from the beginning of the year to May, which was directly related to the sustained suppression of spot circulation by high inventory earlier. After entering June, as the destocking inflection point has gradually been established, premiums and discounts in the three regions have shown a divergent recovery trend...
Jun 14, 2026 17:31This week, ferrous metals experienced divergent and volatile movements. At the start of the week, the four major stock indices all closed lower. Coking coal futures showed strong performance, with the most-traded contract 2609 hitting a high of 1,486.5 yuan/mt, while ore and steel futures trended weaker. Subsequently, hit by news about Shaanxi authorities ensuring coal supply for enterprises, coupled with persistently weak steel consumption, supply-demand imbalances gradually built up, leading to a sharp decline in coking coal and coke futures. In the latter half of the week, on the one hand, news of iron ore shipments and tightening market liquidity drove a stronger performance in its futures; on the other hand, the escalation of coking coal supply tightness once again pushed up coking coal, coke, and hot-rolled coil and rebar futures prices. In the spot market, the sixth round of coke price increases was implemented mid-week......
Jun 12, 2026 18:15SMM June 12 news: [SMM] On June 12, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was reported at 24,140 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt, with a premium of 20 yuan/mt over the current-month contract and a discount of 85 yuan/mt against the next-month contract (unit: yuan/mt). Today, futures continued to rise sharply, and pressure on spot aluminum in South China intensified. Inventory destocking remained strong, which would have been a support, but absolute prices and the spot-futures price spread had both cumulatively risen to relatively high levels. As the weekend approached, the urge to sell and cash in intensified again. In the morning, the stance of holding prices firm gradually loosened, with discounts widening. Mainstream quotations returned to a small discount of -10 to 0 yuan/mt, with circulating cargoes mainly at discounts. Demand side, downstream fear of high prices began to emerge, and the momentum of rushing to buy amid continuous price rises weakened, but it had not completely exited, still providing bottom support. Traders, meanwhile, sold more than they bought, only purchasing as needed, with limited replenishment. Overall trading was moderate. Spot aluminum transaction prices were concentrated at premiums of 0 to 40 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract.
Jun 12, 2026 17:13[Shanghai zinc ingot inventory slightly destocked, spot zinc discounts narrowed]: This week, spot discounts in Shanghai narrowed, with the weekly average price up 20 yuan/mt WoW. As of Friday this week, ordinary domestic brands were quoted at discounts of 10-0 yuan/mt against the 2607 contract, while the high-priced brand Shuangyan was quoted at a premium of 60 yuan/mt against the 2607 contract.
Jun 12, 2026 15:29SMM Clarification Statement SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM" or "the Company"), as a professional spot market price reporting agency and information provider, has recently noticed the circulation of false information regarding the fairness of SMM's price assessment. To avoid market misunderstandings, maintain a healthy and transparent market environment, and protect the Company's legitimate rights and interests, SMM hereby makes the following solemn clarification and statement: I. The Difference Between Spot Prices and Futures Prices is a Normal Reflection of Market Mechanisms According to basic economic principles, spot prices reflect the immediate supply-demand relationship and deliverable transaction conditions of the underlying asset, while futures prices reflect market expectations for future supply and demand, including factors such as capital cost and carrying costs. Both follow the principle of "convergence at maturity," meaning that futures prices gradually converge towards spot prices as the contract expiration date approaches. Therefore, during the life of the contract, the difference between spot prices and futures prices, especially with far-month contracts, is a normal phenomenon under the market pricing mechanism. II. Historical Data Proves the Rationality of the Price Spread Structure To objectively present the facts, SMM has made a price spread analysis chart based on publicly available market data: The chart clearly shows that from September 2023 to 2025, the monthly price spread between the SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate average price and the GFEX lithium carbonate futures contract prices fluctuated between positive and negative territory, always remaining within a reasonable range, and exhibited a significant convergence trend as the contract expiration date approached. This fully aligns with the market rule of futures and spot price convergence. Comparing a certain periods' futures prices (especially those of far-month most-traded contracts) with spot assessment prices and concluding that there is a "consistent significant deviation" is fundamentally flawed in methodology and can easily mislead market judgment. Any behavior that selectively highlights short-term trends in the price spread without considering the broader context is partial and irresponsible, failing to reflect the overall market situation. III. Recent Market Risk Control Measures Recently, to maintain the stable operation of the lithium carbonate futures market and prevent potential risks, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, in accordance with its risk management rules, issued multiple notifications consecutively between November and December 2025, implementing a series of risk control measures for relevant contracts, including adjustments to transaction fee standards and trading limits. These measures represent the exchange's commitment to fulfill its self-regulatory duties in accordance with the law during specific market periods, aiming to promote the steady development of the market. IV. The Emergence, Nature, and Harm of False Information It is noteworthy that during this sensitive period, when the aforementioned risk control measures were being intensively implemented, a significant amount of false information began circulating on the Internet. While such information varies in content, it shares an identical core narrative: False claims have been made that SMM’s prices "consistently and significantly deviate from fair value and futures prices" and that "there are illegal benefit-related connections with certain institutions". These claims are entirely groundless. The timing and manner of their dissemination indicate that their purpose is not professional discussion but rather an attempt to exert improper pressure on SMM by confusing the price logic of spot and futures markets, interfere with the neutrality of spot price assessments, and consequently potentially mislead market expectations and disrupt the normal relationship between futures and spot prices. SMM hereby solemnly declares that SMM is always committed to price discovery in the spot market, does not participate in any futures market trading operations, and resolutely maintains market order. V. The Compliance, Neutrality, and Supervision Mechanisms of SMM's Price Assessment As a professional market price assessment agency, SMM always adheres to the principles of neutrality, objectivity, and fairness. SMM's price assessment methodology strictly follows the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) "Principles for Financial Benchmarks" and is subject to audits by independent third-party audit firms. In terms of internal governance, SMM has established a comprehensive firewall system to ensure that personnel and management involved in the price assessment process do not hold any related futures or spot positions, thereby eliminating conflicts of interest at an institutional level. SMM also has no history of any penalties from securities regulatory authorities for violations. We consistently maintain an open attitude towards market supervision based on facts. VI. Appeal to the Public SMM strongly condemns the recent malicious fabrication and dissemination of false information in the market, which damages SMM's commercial reputation and attempts to disrupt the order of the futures and spot markets, and has initiated legal proceedings to protect its rights. Currently, SMM is comprehensively and continuously collecting and preserving evidence related to the infringements. For suspected infringing acts, the Company will take all legal measures, including but not limited to reporting to relevant regulatory authorities and filing complaints with relevant online platforms, to resolutely pursue the legal liability of the infringing parties. SMM reserves the right to pursue all legal consequences against the relevant responsible parties. We once again call on all market participants to enhance their legal awareness and professional discernment capabilities, obtain information from authoritative channels, analyze the market rationally, resolutely resist and refuse to spread any unverified and unfounded rumors, and jointly maintain a fair, orderly, and healthy development environment for the industry chain. SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. Dec 26, 2025
Dec 26, 2025 17:30