[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Upward Momentum Weak, Year-End Off-Season Stainless Steel Spot Trading Sluggish: SMM, December 29: SS futures were in the doldrums. SHFE nickel's upward momentum weakened, and SS futures followed suit. Although it briefly climbed above 13,000 yuan/mt before noon, it fell again in the afternoon, closing at 12,910 yuan/mt. Spot market, the momentum for further rises in SS futures has slowed down. Coupled with the fact that spot prices have already increased from previous levels, downstream demand remained sluggish amid the year-end off-season, and there was a lack of further stimulating factors from news. Spot prices overall maintained a stable trend, with subsequent attention on stainless steel mills' production cuts and downstream winter stockpiling. The most-traded SS futures contract was in the doldrums. At 10:30 a.m., SS2602 was quoted at 12,975 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, the spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 145-395 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was 8,200 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled mill edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi was 13,075 yuan/mt, and in Foshan was 13,075 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi, it was 24,150 yuan/mt, and in Foshan, 24,150 yuan/mt; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi, it was quoted at 23,250 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan, it was 7,600 yuan/mt. This week, the main theme of stainless steel trading quickly shifted from "weak reality" to "expectations trading." In...

SMM December 17 - SS futures showed a rebound trend. Last night, the US released non-farm payroll and unemployment data. Today, metal futures collectively rebounded, with SS following the upward trend and breaking through 12,400 yuan/mt. In the spot market, although SS futures prices were low at the morning opening and spot market quotes remained at low levels, spot quotes also rebounded as futures recovered. With the rebound in SS futures, market confidence was boosted, and low-price transactions during the day were moderate. The most-traded SS futures contract stopped falling and rebounded. At 10:30 a.m., SS2602 was quoted at 12,345 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, the spot premium/discount for 304/2B was in the range of 325-525 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was 8,100 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled trimmed 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi was 12,600 yuan/mt, and in Foshan was 12,600 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi, the price was 23,775 yuan/mt, and in Foshan was 23,775 yuan/mt; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi, the price was 23,000 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan, the price was 7,600 yuan/mt. This week, the US Fed interest rate cut landed as expected, but as the positive factor had already been priced in by the market, the boost from macro sentiment was limited. Although SS futures surged at one point, with the clear year-end policy stabilization tone, further stimulus expectations faded, and upward momentum in futures was noticeably insufficient, overall showing a weak rebound pattern of retreating after a rapid rise. The spot market performance was even weaker. At the beginning of the week, only low-priced resources saw a slight increase in transactions, with downstream players generally adopting a wait-and-see attitude and restocking willingness remaining low. Traders reported persistent insufficient orders, and the year-end demand contraction trend has become a foregone conclusion. The supply-demand imbalance further intensified, with social inventory increasing slightly by 0.07% WoW to 947,600 mt, and destocking pressure becoming more evident. Although mainstream steel mills frequently announced planned production cuts for December, the actual production schedule reduction may only be 4.15%, far below expectations. Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, actual transaction prices frequently showed hidden declines. Meanwhile, nickel pig iron and ferrochrome prices continued to decline, with cost support persistently weakening. Overall, the current stainless steel market faces triple pressures: a vacuum in macro drivers, a fundamental supply-demand imbalance, and collapsing cost support. Although futures were briefly driven by external factors, their own momentum is lacking. Short-term upward momentum is expected to remain insufficient, with certain downside risks still present.

SMM reported on December 16 that SS futures showed a further weakening and downward trend. Today, as the US non-farm payrolls data release approached, market concerns over macro policy uncertainty grew, leading to a broad decline in metal futures. SS futures followed suit, pulling back further and briefly falling below 12,300 yuan/mt during the session. In the spot market, influenced by the continued decline in SS futures, market sentiment turned noticeably pessimistic, and stainless steel spot prices followed the downward trend. Although traders lowered their offers, cautious market sentiment amid the price decline made transactions quite difficult. The most-traded SS futures contract weakened and declined. At 10:30 a.m., the SS2602 contract was quoted at 12,340 yuan/mt, down 215 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In the Wuxi area, the spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 380-580 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was 8,100 yuan/mt; the average price for cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coil was 12,650 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan; the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil was 23,775 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan; the price for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi was 23,000 yuan/mt; and the price for cold-rolled 430/2B coil was 7,600 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan. This week, the US Fed cut interest rates as expected, but since the positive impact had already been priced in by the market, the boost to macro sentiment was limited. Although SS futures surged briefly, with the year-end policy stabilization tone becoming clear and further stimulus expectations fading, upward momentum in the futures market was noticeably insufficient, resulting in an overall weak rebound pattern characterized by a retreat after a rapid rise. The spot market performance was even weaker. At the beginning of the week, only low-priced resources saw a slight increase in transactions, while downstream players generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude with low restocking willingness. Traders reported persistently insufficient orders, and the year-end demand contraction trend has become a foregone conclusion. The supply-demand imbalance further intensified, with social inventory increasing slightly by 0.07% WoW to 947,600 mt, making destocking pressure increasingly evident. Although mainstream steel mills frequently announced planned production cuts for December, the actual reduction in the production schedule may only be 4.15%, far below expectations. Amid the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, hidden price reductions in actual transaction prices frequently occurred. Meanwhile, prices for nickel pig iron and ferrochrome continued to decline, further weakening cost support. Overall, the current stainless steel market faces triple pressures: a vacuum in macro drivers, a fundamental supply-demand imbalance, and collapsing cost support. Although futures were briefly driven by external factors, they lack intrinsic momentum. Short-term upward momentum is expected to remain insufficient, with certain downside risks still present.

SMM December 15 news, SS futures showed a further weakening and declining trend. Today, driven by the pullback in SHFE nickel, SS futures continued to weaken and decline, probing down to 12,460 yuan/mt during the session. In the spot market, SS futures were largely stable before noon, with market offers generally firm and even some upward probing, but after noon, following the retreat in SHFE nickel, market sentiment weakened, and offers were further adjusted downward. The year-end off-season demand is difficult to reverse, and market transactions are mainly based on rigid demand. The most-traded SS futures contract weakened and declined. At 10:30 AM, SS2602 was quoted at 12,555 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, the spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 265-465 yuan/mt. In the spot market, in Wuxi, the average price for 201/2B cold-rolled coil was 8,000 yuan/mt; the average price for 304/2B cold-rolled mill-edge coil was 12,800 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 12,800 yuan/mt in Foshan; in Wuxi, the price for 316L/2B cold-rolled coil was 23,775 yuan/mt, and in Foshan it was 23,775 yuan/mt; the price for 316L/NO.1 hot-rolled coil in Wuxi was 23,000 yuan/mt; the price for 430/2B cold-rolled coil was 7,600 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan. This week, the US Fed interest rate cut landed as expected, but as this positive had been largely digested by the market in advance, the boost to macro sentiment was limited. Although SS futures once surged, with the clear year-end policy stability tone, further stimulus expectations faded, and the upward momentum on the futures was noticeably insufficient, overall presenting a weak rebound pattern of retreat after rapid rise. The spot market performance was even softer. At the start of the week, only low-priced resources saw a slight increase in transactions, downstream players generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude, and restocking willingness was low. Traders reported persistently insufficient orders, and the year-end demand contraction trend is set. The supply-demand imbalance further intensified, with social inventory increasing slightly by 0.07% WoW to 947,600 mt, and destocking pressure becoming more apparent; while mainstream steel mills frequently announced production cuts for December, the actual reduction in the production schedule might only be 4.15%, and the implementation of production cuts fell far short of expectations. Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, actual transaction prices showed frequent hidden declines. Meanwhile, nickel pig iron and ferrochrome prices continued to decline, and cost support kept weakening. Overall, the current stainless steel market faces triple pressures: a vacuum in macro drivers, a fundamental supply-demand imbalance, and collapsing cost support. Although futures were briefly boosted by external factors, their own momentum is lacking. Short-term upward momentum is expected to be insufficient, and there remains some downside risk.

SMM December 12 news, SS futures showed a weakening and declining trend. Today, influenced by the collective weakness of SHFE nickel and ferrous metals futures, SS futures weakened and declined, with intraday adjustments approaching 12,500 yuan/mt. In the spot market, as futures weakened and declined, the spot market returned to fundamentals. Additionally, restocking transactions at the beginning of the week were largely completed, market trading was sluggish, and most traders opted to offer discounts to promote deals. This week, social inventory accumulated, rising 0.07% WoW to 947,600 mt. The most-traded SS futures contract was in the doldrums. At 10:30 am, SS2602 was quoted at 12,675 yuan/mt, up 110 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 195-395 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was reported at 8,000 yuan/mt; the average price for cold-rolled mill edge 304/2B coil was 12,800 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 12,800 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was 23,775 yuan/mt and 23,775 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi was reported at 23,000 yuan/mt; the price for cold-rolled 430/2B coil was 7,600 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan. This week, the US Fed interest rate cut landed as expected, but as this positive had been largely priced in by the market, the boost to macro sentiment was limited. Although SS futures saw a rapid rise at one point, with the clear year-end policy stabilization tone, further stimulus expectations faded, and upward momentum on the futures was noticeably insufficient, overall presenting a weak rebound pattern of retreating after a rapid rise. Spot market performance was even weaker. Only low-priced resources saw a slight increase in transactions at the start of the week, with downstream players generally adopting a wait-and-see attitude and restocking willingness remaining low. Traders reported persistently insufficient orders, and the trend of year-end demand contraction was a foregone conclusion. The supply-demand imbalance intensified further, with social inventory increasing slightly by 0.07% WoW to 947,600 mt, making destocking pressure increasingly evident; while mainstream steel mills frequently announced planned production cuts for December, the actual reduction in the production schedule might only be 4.15%, far below expectations. Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, hidden price reductions in actual transaction prices frequently occurred. Meanwhile, prices for nickel pig iron and ferrochrome continued to decline, with cost support persistently weakening. Overall, the current stainless steel market faces triple pressures: a vacuum in macro drivers, a fundamental supply-demand imbalance, and collapsing cost support. Although futures were briefly lifted by external factors, their own momentum is lacking. Short-term upward momentum is expected to be insufficient, with some downside risks remaining.

SMM December 11 - SS futures were in the doldrums. Although the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, which aligned with earlier expectations and had already been priced in by the market, it did not cause significant fluctuations. During the day, prices once surged to near 12,700 yuan/mt before pulling back. In the spot market, SS futures were basically stable, with the spot market returning to fundamentals. Downstream restocking was largely completed earlier, transactions remained sluggish, and some traders offered slight discounts to move cargo. Social inventory accumulated this week, up 0.07% WoW to 947,600 mt. The most-traded SS contract was weak. At 10:30 a.m., SS2602 was quoted at 12,675 yuan/mt, up 110 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 195-395 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was 8,000 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coil, the average price was 12,800 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan; for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil, the price was 23,775 yuan/mt in Wuxi and Foshan; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, the price in Wuxi was 23,000 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled 430/2B coil, the price was 7,600 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan. This week, the US Fed's rate cut landed as expected, but as the positive news had already been digested by the market, the boost to macro sentiment was limited. Although SS futures surged at one point, with the clear year-end policy stabilization tone, further stimulus expectations faded, and upward momentum in futures was noticeably insufficient, resulting in a weak rebound pattern of retreating after a rapid rise. The spot market performed even weaker. Only low-priced resources saw a slight increase in transactions at the beginning of the week, with downstream players generally adopting a wait-and-see attitude and restocking willingness remaining low. Traders reported persistently insufficient orders, and the year-end demand contraction trend has become a foregone conclusion. The supply-demand imbalance further intensified, with social inventory increasing slightly by 0.07% WoW to 947,600 mt, making destocking pressure increasingly evident. Although mainstream steel mills frequently announced planned production cuts for December, the actual reduction in the production schedule may only be 4.15%, far below expectations. Amid the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, actual transaction prices frequently saw hidden declines. Meanwhile, prices for nickel pig iron and ferrochrome continued to fall, further weakening cost support. Overall, the stainless steel market currently faces triple pressures: a vacuum in macro drivers, a fundamental supply-demand imbalance, and collapsing cost support. Although futures were briefly lifted by external factors, they lack intrinsic momentum. Short-term upward momentum is expected to remain insufficient, with certain downside risks still present.