Published: Jun 20, 2026 - 1:08 AM (Kitco News) - Gold investors shouldn't assume that a more inflation-focused Federal Reserve will derail the precious metal's long-term bull market, according to Axel Merk, founder and CEO of Merk Investments. While newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has signaled a more hawkish approach to monetary policy, Merk said that any near-term headwinds for gold could ultimately strengthen the market's longer-term foundations by reducing policy-driven uncertainty and shifting investor attention back to America's deteriorating fiscal position. In his first Federal Reserve press conference on Wednesday, Warsh made fighting inflation a central pillar of his leadership, emphasizing the importance of price stability. The market interpreted his comments as hawkish, with traders pushing expectations for future rate increases higher. Yet Merk said that investors should not automatically view a hawkish Fed as bearish for gold. "Everything else equal, Kevin Warsh is a headwind to the price of gold," Merk said. "But I actually think it's going to reduce volatility, which should be seen as a positive." According to Merk, one of Warsh's most important reforms is his effort to reduce the Fed's reliance on forward guidance and allow financial markets to play a greater role in signaling economic conditions. He said years of excessive communication and policy signaling have distorted markets and amplified volatility. "The Fed has always done what they had to do, but often with huge delays and much more damage," he said. "Just avoiding the big mistakes reduces volatility." Along with creating unnecessary market volatility, Merk also pointed out that the Federal Reserve’s economic projections and dot plot have never been accurate forecasting tools. He added that, for gold investors, less monetary policy uncertainty could have an unexpected benefit. Instead of obsessing over every Fed statement, dot plot projection, or interest-rate forecast, investors may begin focusing on structural issues that remain firmly supportive of gold, particularly the United States' growing debt burden. "For the gold bugs, for better or worse, we've got unsustainable deficits," Merk said. "The market should be focused more on the fiscal side." The comments come as many analysts continue to debate whether higher interest rates and elevated bond yields represent a significant obstacle for gold prices. Conventional wisdom suggests that rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as gold. However, Merk challenged the idea that opportunity costs should dictate an investor's decision to own precious metals. He noted that gold serves multiple functions within a portfolio, including preserving purchasing power during periods of monetary instability and fiscal deterioration. "I own gold for a variety of reasons," he said. "It's about preservation of purchasing power." Merk added that even if Warsh succeeds in restoring credibility to monetary policy and making progress against inflation, the process will take years. He pointed out that former Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker, widely credited with breaking the back of inflation in the early 1980s, did not immediately return inflation to desired levels. "Keep in mind, Paul Volcker didn't get inflation down to two percent," Merk said, noting that meaningful progress only emerged late in Volcker's tenure and into the early Greenspan years. Beyond Fed policy, Merk noted that some of the recent pressure on gold has stemmed from geopolitical developments, particularly the market's reaction to tensions involving Iran and their impact on oil prices, inflation expectations, and real interest rates. However, he expects those relationships to normalize over time. "My guess is that correlation is going to break down," he said, referring to the recent link between gold and oil prices. "I think that's going to be a big positive for gold." Ultimately, Merk said investors should avoid reducing the case for investing in gold to a simple debate over interest rates. He explained that a more disciplined and inflation-focused Federal Reserve may remove one source of uncertainty from the market, but it does little to address the longer-term challenges posed by persistent budget deficits, rising government debt, and ongoing geopolitical risks. Those factors, he argued, remain powerful reasons for investors to maintain exposure to gold regardless of the Fed's policy path. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-19/golds-bull-market-remains-intact-even-hawkish-fed-says-axel-merk

Recently, the General Administration of Customs released import and export data for the period from January to May 2026. The latest data shows that China's imports of thorium ore and concentrates from January to May 2026 amounted to 25,400 mt, edging up 6% YoY, with May imports at 3,957 mt, edging down 3% MoM but up 56% YoY. From January to May 2026, China's imports of unlisted rare earth oxides were approximately 29,266 mt, up 33% YoY; of this, May imports of unlisted rare earth oxides stood at around 3,143 mt, down 30% MoM, while also seeing a sharp 65% drop YoY. Looking at the specific data, imports of thorium ore and concentrates were relatively stable, but imports of medium-heavy rare earth ore from Southeast Asia saw a notable decline. According to SMM survey, the decrease in unlisted rare earth oxides imports was mainly due to a sharp drop in imports from Myanmar, from 3,040 mt to 1,159 mt. This was primarily caused by seasonal factors and Myanmar's increase in rare earth ore taxes, which led to a significant fall in the operating rate of rare earth mines in the Bawa area. Some mine owners even dismissed miners as mining costs surged significantly while rare earth ore selling prices remained sluggish. Some miners forecast that Myanmar ore imports in June may be similar to May, while from July to August, as the local area enters its deep rainy season, increased rainfall will affect normal operations at mines, and rare earth ore production could continue to decline during this period.

Published: Jun 20, 2026 - 5:42 AM (Kitco News) - Gold prices have tumbled after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered what many investors interpreted as a hawkish debut, but at least one market strategist argues the precious metal's longer-term outlook remains intact. In commentary following Warsh's first press conference as Fed chair, Rebecca Ivaldi, Market Strategist at FCT Capital Partners and former Lehman Brothers analyst, said markets may be overestimating the central bank's willingness to keep monetary policy restrictive and underestimating the structural forces supporting gold demand. The precious metal came under pressure after Warsh repeatedly emphasized the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability. During the press conference, Warsh described inflation as a burden on American households and declared that the Federal Open Market Committee was "unambiguous and unanimous" in its determination to restore price stability. However, Ivaldi argues that beneath the hawkish rhetoric were several signals suggesting a less restrictive policy path than markets initially assumed. "The knee-jerk algorithmic reaction to the press conference was exactly what we saw in January right after the news broke that Warsh had been picked -- Hawk in the Fed equals Gold Down," she wrote. "But this short-term speculative reaction is almost entirely irrelevant in my view." One of the key points highlighted by Ivaldi was Warsh's discussion of housing markets. During the press conference, the Fed chair acknowledged that monetary policy appeared "somewhat restrictive" in housing, while describing the broader impact of policy across the economy as "uneven." Ivaldi interpreted those comments as evidence that Warsh may be more concerned about overly restrictive borrowing costs than his public messaging suggests. She also pointed to Warsh's skepticism toward traditional inflation measures and his decision to launch a review of the Fed's data-gathering framework. During the press conference, Warsh announced a task force to examine new data sources and improve the quality and timeliness of economic information available to policymakers. He argued that many official statistics rely on outdated survey methods and that policymakers need more real-time information about economic conditions. According to Ivaldi, that effort suggests the Fed may ultimately conclude that underlying inflation pressures are less severe than headline data currently indicate. She contends that once temporary energy-related distortions are removed, inflation is already much closer to the Fed's target than widely believed. Another point attracting attention was Warsh's treatment of the Fed's so-called "dot plot." Although the latest projections showed a significant number of policymakers expecting higher rates by year-end, Warsh downplayed the importance of those forecasts, noting that participants effectively submitted their projections in pencil and could easily revise them as conditions change. Ivaldi argues that the chairman's remarks undermine the market's assumption that the Fed is preparing for additional tightening. She noted that Warsh confirmed there was no active discussion of raising rates at the current meeting and emphasized the uncertainty surrounding future policy decisions. For gold investors, however, Ivaldi believes the more important story lies beyond Fed policy. She argues that geopolitical developments in the Middle East and the gradual evolution of non-dollar trade arrangements continue to support long-term demand for physical gold. Ivaldi explained that the reopening of energy trade routes could restore flows in which Middle Eastern trade surpluses are converted into physical gold through Chinese markets, creating a structural source of demand largely independent of short-term interest-rate expectations. Ivaldi also maintains that rising sovereign debt burdens and pressure on government financing costs ultimately limit how restrictive monetary policy can become. In her view, policymakers face increasing incentives to keep Treasury yields contained, a backdrop that historically has been supportive for hard assets such as gold. Warsh himself offered little guidance on the future path of rates, repeatedly stressing that the Fed had abandoned formal forward guidance and would remain focused on incoming data. He also emphasized that the central bank's credibility would ultimately be measured by its ability to deliver price stability rather than by its rhetoric. For now, gold traders appear focused on the chairman's inflation-fighting language. But Ivaldi argues that investors should pay closer attention to what she sees as the deeper forces reshaping global capital flows. "The jawboning works for a few days, but the underlying plumbing tells the real story," she said. “The dollar is left less fungible for international trade, not more, the sovereign debt burden remains massive, and the long-term structural case for gold has only grown stronger. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-19/golds-post-fed-selloff-may-be-missing-bigger-picture-says-former-lehman

June 17, 2026 Despite a sharp 26 percent drop in prices during the Iran conflict, Barclays believes the long-term upward trend for gold remains intact. The British bank attributes the recent slump to temporary market forces, while structural price drivers such as inflation and central bank purchases persist. Temporary Factors Overshadow Safe-Haven Role Between January and June, gold lost massive value—an unusual pattern, as geopolitical crises typically boost demand for safe havens. According to Barclays’ Cross-Asset Research Team, however, this role was overshadowed by massive macroeconomic headwinds. A strong U.S. dollar and rising real interest rates weighed heavily on the precious metal, as the market quickly priced out the Federal Reserve’s previously anticipated interest rate cuts. At the same time, the rally in the stock markets—fueled by a roughly 10 percent rise in the S&P 500—tied up considerable risk capital. According to Barclays, however, these factors explain only part of the price decline. The greatest downward momentum stemmed from the massive unwinding of leveraged gold positions, which was further accelerated by simultaneous sales by the Russian and Turkish central banks . Investors were driven by higher yields, causing short-term capital flows to dictate prices. Structural Drivers Justify Premium Analysts, however, view these headwinds as temporary. With the foreseeable easing of tensions in the Middle East, fundamental price drivers are likely to regain the upper hand. These include persistent inflationary pressure, monetary policy uncertainties, and the continued diversification of government currency reserves. Barclays quantifies this effect clearly: historically, every additional percentage point of inflation increases the price of gold by about five percent. The bank currently estimates the fair value of the precious metal at $4,150 per ounce and anticipates a reversal in the near future. This is contingent on the U.S. dollar resuming its long-term downward trend and central banks returning to sustained gold purchases. Forecast Confirmed: Winners in the Mining Sector Accordingly, Barclays is sticking to its ambitious price targets: The bank expects the gold price to reach $4,791 per ounce by 2026, rising to $4,900 by the end of 2027. However, the bank does not rule out short-term price fluctuations until the trend ultimately reverses. According to analysts’ estimates, established gold producers such as Endeavour, Hochschild, Fresnillo, Newmont, and Agnico Eagle are likely to benefit most from this bullish scenario. The key question for the sector now is whether the expected recovery in the gold price will quickly translate into higher profit margins. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-analysts-expect-a-rebound-to-nearly-usd4-800

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Fundamentals Moderate While Macro Conditions Complex, Short-term Lead Prices to Retrace Some Gains] Recently, the macroeconomic situation outside China has been complex, market risk-averse sentiment has been relatively strong, and maintenance at China's primary lead and secondary lead enterprises has increased...

[SMM Morning Briefing: Wild Swings with Initial Dip Then Rebound, Continuing to Consolidate at Highs amid the Tug-of-War between Sellers and Buyers.]