[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Hard Supply Gap Supports Floor Price, Macro Swings Dominate Short-Term Pace]

SMM has learned that the current monthly rental floor price for RTX 4090 8-card servers has dropped to 6,900 yuan per server. Some channels in Shanghai, eager to lease out to avoid idle periods, have quoted this price, while previous transaction prices were around 7,000 yuan per server. Intermediary quoted prices generally range from 7,600 to 8,000 yuan per server, with intermediary fees of about 200 yuan per server per month and a single-tier markup of about 700 to 800 yuan. A platform under a publicly listed firm with cross-sector computing business quotes 7,200 yuan per server for the 512M memory version, while state-owned enterprise channels quote 7,500 yuan per server, though internal long-term agreements may be negotiated to below 7,000 yuan. In the 4090 rental market, intermediary layers are thick; the price spread between first-hand self-operated data center quotes and intermediary listing prices reaches 700 to 1,100 yuan per server. Buyers directly connecting with first-hand resources can significantly reduce costs.

On August 5, a residential land plot in Hongshan District, Wuhan was sold. The planned gross floor area is 50,702.78 m², with a floor area ratio of 2.1. The starting price was 314.6 million yuan, with a starting floor price of 6,205 yuan/m². After 32 rounds of bidding, Wuhan Kaide Real Estate won the plot at a total price of 380.6 million yuan, with a transaction floor price of 7,506 yuan/m², representing a premium rate of 20.98%.

SMM learned that a certain intelligent computing service provider reported that the current three-year lease quotation for H100 with cabinets and electricity was already above 75,000 yuan/month. For RTX4090 8-GPU servers, they still had dozens of units in stock, with the 1TB memory version’s monthly rent of 7,200 yuan as their floor price. The market price for similar 512GB memory versions had risen to 8,000 yuan/month. SMM also learned that the quotation range for H200 was 120,000-135,000 yuan/month and showed an upward trend this week. Rental prices for high-end cards remained in an upward channel. The service provider said that there were many intermediaries marking up prices in the market, and first-hand resources were scarce.

The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee: Deepen comprehensive reform of investment and financing in the capital market, and enhance the resilience and confidence of the capital market.

On July 27, Rock Tech Lithium announced that it had entered into a binding long-term spodumene concentrate offtake agreement with commodity trading company Transamine SA for its Georgia Lake lithium project in Ontario, Canada. Under the agreement, Transamine will purchase spodumene concentrate produced from Georgia Lake starting in 2028. The initial term is seven years, with the option to extend the agreement annually for up to an additional five years by mutual consent. Meanwhile, Transamine intends to provide up to US$80 million in development prepayment financing to support the construction and financing of the Georgia Lake project. In terms of offtake volumes, the agreement provides for a base purchase volume of 50,000 dry metric tonnes in the first delivery year, increasing to 100,000 dry metric tonnes per year thereafter, with Rock Tech retaining a ±10% volume adjustment option. Based on the company’s current development plan, the agreement could in principle cover the majority of Georgia Lake’s planned spodumene concentrate production. However, final offtake volumes and delivery schedules remain subject to the results of the feasibility study currently underway. As such, the supply profile specified in the agreement should not yet be treated as equivalent to the project’s eventual production profile. In terms of pricing, the agreement adopts a floating pricing mechanism linked to the 6% Li₂O spodumene concentrate CIF China price published by third-party pricing platforms, with adjustments based on the actual Li₂O grade of delivered products. The parties have also agreed on a conditional price floor mechanism, although the specific floor price has not been disclosed. The mechanism is subject to factors including the resale market, inflation adjustments and project financing conditions. SMM believes that although Georgia Lake is positioned as part of a North American domestic lithium supply chain, the long-term offtake agreement continues to use the China CIF spodumene concentrate price as its core pricing benchmark. This reflects the continued importance of the Chinese market as a key source of price discovery and a pricing reference for international long-term lithium concentrate contracts under the current global spodumene trading system. In addition to the long-term offtake arrangement, another key component of the agreement is Transamine’s proposed development prepayment financing of up to US$80 million. According to the disclosure, the financing will bear interest at three-month CME Term SOFR plus 2.95%, with interest accruing quarterly. Once the project enters production and concentrate deliveries begin, the prepayment is expected to be repaid within 24 months following the first delivery through deductions from spodumene concentrate sales proceeds. Any outstanding balance after the 24-month period would be repayable in cash. It is worth noting that the proposed financing of up to US$80 million remains subject to a number of conditions precedent and does not mean that Rock Tech has already secured the full amount. Conditions for drawdown include the completion of the required equity financing for Georgia Lake, receipt of key permits and land rights, satisfactory completion of legal, financial and technical due diligence by Transamine, and successful product quality and metallurgical testing. The final financing amount and detailed terms will also be determined following further progress on the project’s feasibility study. From a project development perspective, the agreement therefore improves financing visibility for Georgia Lake, but the completion of equity financing, permitting and a final investment decision will remain key variables determining whether the project can achieve its targeted 2028 start-up. Another notable feature of the offtake structure is that Rock Tech retains the option to redirect Georgia Lake spodumene concentrate to its own downstream conversion facilities in the future. Under the agreement, if Rock Tech’s planned Red Rock lithium conversion project requires feedstock from Georgia Lake, the existing spodumene concentrate offtake arrangement may be converted into an offtake agreement for battery-grade lithium hydroxide or lithium carbonate. The parties would subsequently agree on product specifications, conversion mechanisms, pricing and delivery arrangements, while Transamine’s corresponding take-or-pay obligations are expected to remain in place. This structure allows Rock Tech to secure a long-term sales channel and enhance the bankability of the mine at the current development stage without fully locking in the future destination of Georgia Lake’s feedstock. If Red Rock is successfully developed, the company could redirect part or all of the concentrate to domestic lithium conversion in Canada while extending Transamine’s purchasing obligations from spodumene concentrate to battery-grade lithium chemicals. This would preserve Rock Tech’s ability to capture additional value further downstream in the lithium value chain. Georgia Lake is located near Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada, and is 100%-owned by Rock Tech. The project represents a key upstream component of the company’s strategy to establish a domestic North American lithium supply chain. Under the current development schedule, Rock Tech targets the commencement of commercial production in 2028. However, the project remains in the development stage and must still complete several major milestones, including the feasibility study, permitting, equity and debt financing, construction and production ramp-up. Therefore, in global lithium supply forecasts, SMM believes Georgia Lake is currently more appropriately treated as a potential post-2028 supply addition with improving development visibility but still requiring a meaningful risk adjustment. SMM believes that the agreement between Rock Tech and Transamine is more than a conventional spodumene concentrate sales contract. By combining long-term offtake, take-or-pay obligations, a price protection mechanism and development prepayment financing, the structure could improve the predictability of Georgia Lake’s future cash flows and enhance the project’s overall bankability at a time when lithium prices remain volatile and financing conditions for new North American lithium projects remain challenging. At the same time, Rock Tech’s option to convert the spodumene concentrate offtake into a lithium chemicals offtake provides significant flexibility for the company’s future integrated “mine-to-lithium chemicals” strategy in Canada. From a broader market perspective, financing structures for new overseas lithium resource projects have increasingly shifted from reliance solely on equity and conventional project finance toward models combining long-term offtake, prepayment financing and strategic partnerships. Following the sharp correction in lithium prices, project developers increasingly need to secure long-term customers, establish downside price protection mechanisms or introduce prepayment financing to improve project bankability. The Rock Tech transaction is another example of this trend. Going forward, the market should closely monitor the results of the Georgia Lake feasibility study, project capital expenditure, progress on equity financing, the actual amount drawn under the proposed US$80 million prepayment facility, and whether the project can achieve commercial production in 2028 as currently planned. SMM New Energy Analyst Lesley Yang yangle@smm.cn