[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief Review] In terms of supply, coking costs increased and losses widened somewhat. At present, coke producers were barely maintaining normal operating rates, while coke production remained temporarily stable. Meanwhile, downstream demand for coke increased, and coke producers' shipments improved somewhat. On the demand side, steel mills were in an active phase of resuming production, while finished steel prices fluctuated upward and steel mill profitability improved somewhat, boosting production enthusiasm and increasing demand for coke. In summary, the fundamentals of coke supply and demand developed in a positive direction, and the coke market may remain generally stable with slight rise in the short term.

As of March 17, the operating rate of 50 electric-furnace steel mills nationwide mainly producing construction materials was 38.64%, up 3.26% WoW; the capacity utilization rate was 39.87%, up 10.53% WoW; and daily average production of construction materials was 88,800 mt, up 23,500 mt WoW.

March planned rebar production was 7.9565 million mt, an increase of 923,500 mt from February’s actual production, up 13.13%. March planned wire rod production was 3.1036 million mt, an increase of 466,300 mt from February’s actual production, up 17.68%. In March, the long steel export schedule for sample steel mills was 712,000 mt, an increase of 137,000 mt MoM; of which the steel billet export schedule was 270,000 mt, down 23,000 mt MoM.

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. There were no significant macro disturbances during the week. The pullback in the US dollar index led to a rebound in nonferrous metals and the A-share market, but ferrous metals did not follow the trend noticeably. Instead, pressure from bears weighed on finished steel prices. On the spot market, most markets have already entered a holiday shutdown. Spot prices remained basically stable, while market transactions contracted sharply...

According to the SMM survey, the impact from maintenance on construction steel decreased this week (6.14-6.20). There were more production resumptions and maintenance activities on construction steel rolling lines at steel mills last week and this week, resulting in an impact from maintenance on construction steel of 1.2615 million mt, a decrease of 57,500 mt WoW.

This week, prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China pulled back to 9,450-9,550 yuan/mt, while those in Foshan pulled back to 9,300-9,600 yuan/mt. Currently, when calculated by raw material, the production cost of stainless steel produced entirely from stainless steel scrap is approximately 13,239.47 yuan/mt, while that produced entirely from high-grade NPI is approximately 13,270.41 yuan/mt. This week, a steel mill in south China lowered its purchase price for stainless steel scrap. As of June 13, the tax-inclusive purchase price for 304 molten stainless steel reached 8,963 yuan/mt. This week, stainless steel finished product prices continued to decline. High-grade NPI prices ended their previous upward trend and pulled back, while stainless steel scrap prices followed suit and weakened amid market pessimism. Currently, stainless steel has entered the traditional consumption off-season, with weak end-use demand leading to a continuous accumulation of steel mill inventories, making it difficult to sustain previous price-limiting strategies. However, after the cancellation of price limits, the situation of losses for enterprises has further intensified, and expectations for production cuts at steel mills have risen. Despite the fact that the supply of stainless steel scrap is not abundant, the combination of weakening demand and cost pressure on steel mills has exerted downward pressure on stainless steel scrap prices. Although the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap over high-grade NPI has re-emerged, its advantage is relatively limited due to the simultaneous weakening of high-grade NPI prices. Overall, it is expected that stainless steel scrap prices will continue to remain in the doldrums in the short term.