[SMM Analysis] Sulphuric Acid: A Key Variable Reshaping Copper Pricing Logic

[SMM Steel] UK Steel warned that Britain’s steel industry still relies heavily on imports, with domestic producers supplying only around 30% of local demand, far below levels seen in the EU and US. The association expressed concern that tighter EU quotas could hurt British exports, as around 80% of UK steel exports are shipped to the EU market. UK Steel also criticized growing preference for imported “green steel” produced via electric arc furnaces (EAF), warning that this trend could undermine investment in domestic steel decarbonization. The UK government plans to cut steel import quotas by 60% from July 1 and raise over-quota tariffs from 25% to 50%.

[SMM Steel] The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) urged the USTR to impose cumulative tariffs under the Section 301 investigation targeting economies linked to global steel overcapacity. AISI highlighted record Chinese steel exports of 131 million mt in 2025 and rising shipments from India, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, and Mexico. The institute argued that subsidized exports and redirected trade flows are pressuring the US steel market. If approved, additional Section 301 tariffs could be added on top of existing Section 232 duties, potentially lifting total US steel tariffs on some countries to 60-75%.

Asian copper scrap supply is severely tight due to decline in the volume and quality of US exports due to recovering domestic consumption; depleted inventories from early-year copper price volatility; and China's tax compliance pressures restricting local scrap flows, which intensifies regional competition for imports. Boosted by bullish hoarding, pricing coefficients have defied expected corrections despite surging copper prices. Bare Bright Copper is currently converging around 98.5%, with No. 1 Copper at 97%-97.5%. Notably, No. 2 Copper coefficients have spiked "abnormally" to 95%-96%. This anomaly is primarily driven by high precious metal prices, as scrap batches rich in gold and silver impurities command high premiums, lifting the overall No. 2 Copper pricing benchmark.

Since the beginning of this year, China's energy storage product exports have been impressive in both scale and growth rate. According to customs data, in Q1 this year, the export value of lithium-ion batteries — one of the most core and critical components of energy storage equipment — increased by over 50% compared to the same period last year.

The International Copper Association (ICA) announced that Indonesian mining and copper smelting company PT Amman Mineral Nusa Tenggara (AMMAN) has officially joined the association, becoming the first member headquartered in Southeast Asia. Indonesia has been accelerating downstream copper processing and domestic smelting expansion in recent years, strengthening Southeast Asia’s role in the global copper supply chain. Increasing investment in copper smelting, fabrication and energy-transition related sectors is also reinforcing the region’s importance in refined copper supply, copper product exports, and demand from AI infrastructure and power grid development.