Overall, the aluminum processing industry achieved a slight edge up in operating rate this week, driven by the recovery of export orders, the surge in energy storage demand, and the recovery of infrastructure-related orders. The industry maintained relatively strong resilience, and going forward, attention should be focused on the sustainability of export orders and the boosting effect of aluminum price trends on demand.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Scrap and Alloy Imports Both Dropped Sharply, Alloy Exports Hit Single-Month Record High] Imports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 73,500 mt, down 15.4% YoY and down 12.9% MoM; cumulative imports from January to April were 313,900 mt, down 14.6% YoY. Exports side, April unwrought aluminum alloy exports reached 46,300 mt, hitting a single-month export record high, up 179.7% YoY and up 68.9% MoM; cumulative exports from January to April were 111,200 mt, up 58.1% YoY. Since March, affected by Middle East geopolitical conflicts and ex-China supply disruptions, overseas aluminum alloy ingot prices continued to rise, with the price spread between domestic and overseas markets becoming increasingly inverted.

[SMM Analysis] Can Indonesia import sulfuric acid as a substitute after the sulfur restriction?

Overall outlook: Through the strategic shift of order focus toward Southeast Asia and Europe, China's prebaked anode exports are expected to effectively mitigate the downside risks from the Middle Eastern market, with the market structure's risk resilience continuing to strengthen. Full-year exports in 2026 are expected to maintain robust growth, and regional diversification is expected to deepen further.

[SMM Steel] Ukraine’s steel industry warned that the EU’s planned steel safeguard revisions could significantly reduce the country’s export revenues and damage its wartime economy. Under the new measures effective from July 1, the EU plans to cut steel import quotas by 47% and impose a 50% tariff on out-of-quota volumes. Ukrainian steelmakers said the restrictions could sharply limit access to their largest export market, as Ukraine exported around 2.65 million mt of steel to the EU last year. Industry sources estimated the proposed quota reductions could cut export volumes by around 70% and result in up to €1 billion in lost export revenues.

According to customs data, China's antimony oxide export volume in April 2026 stood at 379.385 metric tons, representing a modest month-on-month increase from the March export volume of 345.753 metric tons. Many market participants noted that given the current fundamental situation of antimony prices, the steady performance and minor fluctuations in antimony oxide export volumes over recent months are indeed quite consistent with market conditions.