SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,794.5/mt. After dipping to $12,734/mt in early trading, its center rose throughout the session, touching a high of $12,968.5/mt near the close, and finally settled at $12,919/mt, up 0.39%. Trading volume rose to 31,000 lots, an increase of 6,518 lots from the previous trading day; open interest rose to 303,000 lots, down 5,089 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears reducing positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,230 yuan/mt. After bottoming at 100,050 yuan/mt in early trading, its center rose throughout the session, touching a high of 101,250 yuan/mt at the close, and finally settled at 101,160 yuan/mt, up 1.28%. Trading volume fell to 46,000 lots, down 148,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest fell to 197,000 lots, down 3,094 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears reducing positions overall.

[South Africa's platinum group metals and gold production fell in Q1] According to MiningWeekly, South Africa's mining production fell by 2.8% YoY in March, mainly due to a decrease in the production of platinum group metals and gold. Data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) showed that platinum group metals production fell by 9.9%, and gold production fell by 11.1%, but iron ore production was up 7.5% YoY.

According to MiningWeekly, South Africa's mining production fell by 2.8% YoY in March, primarily due to decreased production of platinum group metals (PGMs) and gold. Data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) showed that PGM production declined by 9.9% and gold production by 11.1%, while iron ore production increased by 7.5% YoY. Seasonally adjusted mining production rose by 3.5% MoM in March, following a 4.1% decline in February and a 0.2% increase in January. Seasonally adjusted mining production fell by 4.5% QoQ in Q1. The decline was mainly driven by PGMs, though the increase in iron ore production partially offset the decrease. Seasonally adjusted sales of mineral products rose by 0.5% MoM at current prices, following a 9.6% decline in February and a 1.4% increase in January. Seasonally adjusted sales of mineral products fell by 10.1% QoQ in Q1. Bongani Motsa, senior analyst at the Minerals Council South Africa, stated that future gold demand is expected to remain stable, which should benefit South African gold companies. "Gold is a barometer of global events. It has various uses, from jewelry to industrial applications and as a safe-haven investment tool. These characteristics make gold a timeless and ideal metal," he said. Additionally, he pointed out that despite the contraction in PGM production in February, exports and export revenues were higher than pre-2019 pandemic levels. He believes that the short- to medium-term outlook for chrome and manganese is positive, especially given the easing of trade tensions.

In the first quarter of 2025, the Philippines saw a strong performance in nickel ore exports, achieving significant growth in export revenue despite the decline in international base metal prices. According to data from the Philippines Statistics Authority, the export value of nickel ore and its concentrates rose markedly compared to the same period last year, reflecting sustained global demand for the country’s resources. China remained the largest importer of Philippine nickel ore, followed by Indonesia. Additionally, export volumes also increased, underscoring the Philippines’ growing role in the global nickel supply chain.

The Philippines achieved remarkable performance in nickel ore exports during Q1 2025, with export revenue showing significant growth despite the challenge of declining international base metal prices. According to data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the export value of nickel ore and its concentrates from the country increased substantially YoY, indicating sustained global market demand for its resources. Among these, China continued to be the largest importer of Philippine nickel ore, followed by Indonesia. Additionally, the total export volume also showed an upward trend, suggesting a further consolidation of the Philippines' position in the global nickel supply chain.

The Chinese and US governments issued a joint statement on Monday, agreeing to temporarily modify and eliminate additional tariffs imposed on each other's goods. Within 90 days, the reciprocal tariff rates between the two countries will be reduced to 10%. This statement significantly boosted confidence in global capital markets, with Asian and European stock markets, as well as US stock index futures, all rising on Monday. Meanwhile, as tariff disputes ease, market expectations are that the global economy is likely to continue growing amid the resumption of normal trade between China and the US. This has also driven stronger oil demand, thereby benefiting oil prices. As of press time, Brent crude oil futures prices rose by 2.74%, and WTI crude oil futures prices rose by 2.72%. However, the sustainability of the rebound in crude oil prices remains to be verified. Gao Jian, a crude oil researcher at Qisheng Futures, previously told the media that it is uncertain whether the tariff issue can be fundamentally resolved and whether tensions can be eased. Unless there are more tangible and favorable developments in macro, fundamental, or geopolitical aspects, the scope for further rebounds in oil prices will be limited. Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, had also previously warned that optimism over constructive talks between China and the US has supported market sentiment, but OPEC's production increase plans may limit gains. Game Theory OPEC plans to accelerate production increases from May to June to supply more crude oil to the global market. Meanwhile, the US and Iran will continue negotiations on the nuclear program, which will also reinforce market perceptions that global oil supplies will remain stable. On the other hand, US President Trump also seeks to continue lowering oil prices to fulfill his campaign promise of reducing energy costs. These macro factors collectively exert pressure on oil prices, leading analysts to believe that oil prices will remain low until 2026. Goldman Sachs earlier projected that for the remainder of 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil will remain at $60 per barrel, with WTI crude oil averaging $56 per barrel. In 2026, Brent crude oil will further decline to $56 per barrel, and WTI will fall to $52 per barrel. Starting from Monday this week, Trump will also make his first visit to the Middle East, conducting state visits to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. Some commentators have pointed out that low oil prices are, to some extent, a gesture of goodwill from the Middle East towards Trump. For example, Saudi Arabia hopes to attract more US investment to support its Vision 2030 plan. Trump also hopes to receive more capital inflows from Gulf countries. However, Karen Young, a senior fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, stated that Gulf countries have higher import values than export values. If they cannot increase export revenues, they will have to sell domestic assets to cover fiscal and current account deficits. This means that low oil prices are not a sustainable policy for the Gulf countries. Tim Callen, a visiting scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, added that if oil prices continue to fall, it is less likely that the Gulf countries will fulfill their investment commitments to the United States. This, in turn, forces Trump to consider the possibility of rising oil prices. Given that attracting large-scale investment funds from the Middle East to the United States could be seen as a victory for the White House's economic agenda, Trump's trip to the Middle East will be crucial for the future direction of global oil prices.