On July 28 China's steel export prices mostly eased. Flat-product exports gave back the prior day's gains, with HRC deals at 488-489 USD/tonne; market inquiry and trading sentiment cooled from the previous day, while mills' offer levels stayed relatively high and actual deals were limited. Export billet FOB fell USD 2/tonne, with Jiangyin quoted at 455-458 USD/tonne, as destination-country demand urgency was low and domestic prices were still probing a bottom, leaving the market largely on the sidelines with muted inquiries and deals. Tianjin rebar export prices slipped USD 1/tonne to overall deals of 476-482 USD/tonne; amid the softening, overseas buyers stayed cautiously onthe sidelines, with a few inquiries but generally weak willingness to trade.

[SMM Analysis: June LFP Exports Hit YTD Monthly High] In June 2026, China's LFP cathode material export market experienced "explosive" growth, with both volume and price surging. Total exports reached 15,379.6 mt in June, up 101.7% MoM from May, setting a new all-time monthly high. While export scale leaped, the average monthly export price rose to $9,125.1/mt, an increase of approximately 11.1%.

[Sheets & Plates] Today, export prices for hot-rolled coil and other sheets & plates gave back yesterday’s gains, with hot-rolled coil transaction prices at $488-489/mt. Market inquiries and trading sentiment cooled from yesterday, while steel mills’ offer prices remained elevated, restricting actual transactions.

Stronger HRC realizations and a higher share of value-added steel helped Jindal Steel offset lower sequential production and rising raw material costs in Q1FY27. As India's steel demand continues to outpace global markets, the company's earnings outlook will depend on capacity ramp-up, domestic steel prices, coking coal costs and import competition.

[Sheets & Plates] Today, export prices for HRC and other sheets & plates rose $1/mt DoD, with HRC transaction prices at $487-491/mt. Domestic futures edged up today, but market inquiries showed no significant improvement. Outside China remains in the off-season, and end-users outside China still mainly engage in short-term just-in-time procurement.

Around July 20, 2026, June import and export data for cobalt and lithium battery industry chain related products were released in a concentrated manner. The data showed that China's spodumene imports reached 768,000 mt in physical content, up 13% MoM and surging 33% YoY, equivalent to approximately 72,000 mt of LCE. For lithium carbonate, China imported 25,861 mt in June, down 31% MoM but up 46% YoY. Cumulative lithium carbonate imports from January to June reached 179,000 mt, up 52% YoY... SMM compiled the H1 import and export situation of battery materials as follows: Upstream Lithium Concentrates In June 2026, China's spodumene imports reached 768,000 mt in physical content, up 13% MoM and surging 33% YoY, equivalent to approximately 72,000 mt of LCE. By source country: The effect of concentrated shipments from Australia at its fiscal year-end manifested, with port arrivals exceeding 370,000 mt in June, up 12% MoM. Mali: Port arrivals increased significantly MoM to 60,000 mt. South Africa and Nigeria maintained stable output, with port arrivals staying above 110,000 mt. Among them, the share of high-grade ore from Nigeria increased, with concentrates accounting for over 65%. Zimbabwe, affected by transportation efficiency earlier, saw arrivals of 42,000 mt in June, which pulled back MoM. Based on SMM's data screening, the total LCE equivalent of incoming ore in June was 72,000 mt. Notably, the proportion of lithium concentrates in total incoming ore fell to 72%, a MoM decline, mainly because most of the 65,000 mt from Brazil was previously traded lithium raw ore powder, which dragged down the overall concentrate share. In June 2026, China's total imports of lithium raw materials (spodumene + lithium sulfate) approached 80,000 mt of LCE, staying in a high range and providing a solid raw material base for the continuously climbing domestic lithium chemical production. Spodumene: Import Volume Continues to Rise, Australian Fiscal Year-End Push Contributes Significantly In June, China's spodumene imports reached 768,000 mt in physical content, up 13% MoM and surging 33% YoY, equivalent to approximately 72,000 mt of LCE. The import volume has maintained high growth for several consecutive months, reflecting that domestic lithium chemical plants' rigid demand for upstream ore remains strong. Source: China Customs, Compiled by SMM From a grade structure perspective, based on SMM's data screening, the proportion of lithium concentrates in total incoming ore in June fell to 72%, a MoM decline. The main drag was Brazil—its arrivals of 65,000 mt that month were mostly previously traded lithium raw ore powder; the concentrated arrivals of such low-grade minerals directly pulled down the overall proportion of concentrates. Besides spodumene, the import performance of another lithium raw material, lithium sulfate, is also worth noting. In June, China's lithium sulfate imports reached 13,500 mt, up 12% MoM, equivalent to over 7,700 mt of LCE. From the source perspective, Chile continued to dominate the supply landscape of this product with an absolute volume of 13,400 mt. Meanwhile, lithium sulfate imports from Zimbabwe also quietly rose to over one hundred mt. Although the absolute volume is still small, as the first batch shipment of lithium sulfate to China from the country, it marked the first step for subsequent regular supply growth from Zimbabwe. Summary: Raw material support was solid in June, but tightening expectations for the availability side are rising in July. In terms of total volume, combined imports of spodumene and lithium sulfate in June were equivalent to nearly 80,000 mt of LCE. Together with domestic lithium concentrate production of over 30,000 mt, total domestic lithium raw material supply reached over 110,000 mt of LCE in the month, providing ample and relatively solid raw material support for lithium chemical production fluctuating at highs in June. However, beneath the relatively optimistic aggregate data, one key variable deserves attention: Most of the June arrivals had their destinations locked in through orders weeks or even months earlier, with only a low proportion of cargo actually entering the freely tradeable circulation of traders. The continuation of this pre-locked structure means that entering July, the available volume for spot lithium ore in the spot market will remain tight. If downstream just-in-time procurement pace stays unchanged, the tightening of circulating supply will constrain lithium chemical plants' flexibility in securing raw materials to some extent, thereby limiting the further room for lithium carbonate production growth in July—a transmission effect already reflected in SMM's recent weekly lithium carbonate production data. Regarding spot prices for spodumene concentrates (CIF China), SMM data showed that the overall trend in June was a decline. As of June 30, the average spot price for spodumene concentrates (CIF China) was $2,260/mt, down $328/mt from $2,588/mt at the beginning of the month, representing a 12.67% decline. According to SMM, in June, enterprises extracting lithium from externally purchased spodumene saw their spot profits fall into deep losses. The losses continued to widen during the month, mainly because spodumene concentrate prices pulled back along with lithium carbonate but to a limited extent. In June, the decline in spodumene concentrate prices was less than that of lithium chemicals, leading to deepening losses in the processing segment. For externally purchased lepidolite, the immediate profit margin of enterprises extracting lithium from externally purchased lepidolite narrowed in June compared to May, but they still maintained positive immediate profits for the full month. The resumption of production at a leading mine in Jiangxi strengthened market expectations for longer-term supply release, and lithium carbonate futures plummeted 6.58% on the day. Additionally, the lithium carbonate market experienced an extreme trend of "sharp decline—weak rebound—further bottoming" in the fourth week of June, further squeezing the profit margins of enterprises relying on externally purchased ore. Lithium Carbonate According to customs data, China imported 25,861 mt of lithium carbonate in June, down 31% MoM but up 46% YoY. Of this, imports from Chile reached 16,037 mt, accounting for 62% of the total; imports from Argentina were 8,403 mt, representing 32% of the total; and imports from Indonesia stood at 500 mt, making up 2% of the total. China's cumulative imports of lithium carbonate from January to June totaled 179,000 mt, up 52% YoY. In May, China exported 261 mt of lithium carbonate, up 30% MoM but down 39% YoY. Cumulative exports from January to June reached 2,348 mt, down 5.6% YoY. According to SMM spot price data, the spot price of lithium carbonate generally declined in June. As of June 30, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell to 156,500 yuan/mt, a drop of 22,500 yuan/mt from 179,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of June, representing a decline of 12.57%. SMM understands that the price center of spot lithium carbonate in China drifted lower in June. From a fundamental perspective, the supply side was disrupted by news of mine license renewals in Jiangxi, and China's lithium carbonate imports reached historic highs in May, while GFEX warrants remained elevated around 50,000 mt. The demand growth expectations were within market expectations, leading to a drift lower in prices. Upstream lithium chemical plants showed weak willingness to sell spot orders, maintaining an attitude of holding prices firm and holding back from selling; downstream material plants and battery cell manufacturers adopted a buy-the-dip strategy, engaging in substantial dip-buying for stockpiling when prices fell below 160,000 yuan/mt. As of July 23, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 3,500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, reaching 142,000-151,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 146,500 yuan/mt. Lithium Hydroxide According to customs data, in June 2026, China imported 4,400 mt of lithium hydroxide, up 12% MoM and surging nearly 2-fold YoY. By source country, imports from South Korea were 1,159 mt (26% of total), Chile ranked second with 993 mt, and notably, imports from Indonesia remained low at only 774 mt in June. On the export side, China's lithium hydroxide exports reached 6,018 mt in June, up 70% MoM, mainly driven by concentrated shipments at quarter-end and a mild recovery in overseas demand. Of this, exports to South Korea stood at 5,032 mt and to Japan at 679 mt. Overall, exports significantly exceeded imports during the month, temporarily returning China's lithium hydroxide trade to net exporter status after several months. Battery Materials LiPF6 According to China Customs data, in June 2026, China's cumulative LiPF6 exports totaled approximately 1,104.4 mt, down about 26.4% MoM, while cumulative LiPF6 imports were around 24.4 mt. On the export side, China's LiPF6 exports in June 2026 were about 1,104.4 mt, down approximately 26.4% MoM from May and down about 21.4% YoY. In detail, the main export destinations this month included South Korea, Poland, Malaysia, and Japan, among others. Exports to Poland were 336.8 mt, down about 25.47% MoM; to South Korea 319.738 mt, down about 45.9% MoM; to Malaysia 113.211 mt, down about 28.03% MoM; to the US 157.601 mt, up about 103.62% MoM; and to Japan 115.56 mt, up about 5.2% MoM. Overall, overseas procurement volume for LiPF6 edged down in June. Artificial Graphite In June 2026, China's artificial graphite imports amounted to 1,002 mt, up 2.3% MoM and up 3.3% YoY. Regarding import average price, in June 2026, China's artificial graphite import average price was 59,596 yuan/mt, down 0.9% MoM but up 16.6% YoY. Source: China Customs, SMM In June 2026, China's artificial graphite exports totaled 41,601 mt, down 16.9% MoM and down 18.7% YoY. On the export average price side, in June 2026, the average export price was 9,080 yuan/mt, up 17.5% MoM and up 13.9% YoY. On the import side, volume and price fluctuations were relatively mild, with overall stable operations. The export side showed a divergence of declining volume and rising prices: the drop in export volume may be linked to the high base in May and phased adjustments in overseas procurement pace, while the rise in export average price was mainly driven by persistently high domestic costs. Notably, despite the overall decline in export volume, shipments from key exporting provinces for lithium battery-grade artificial graphite showed a recovery trend, with one province's export volume surging about 50% MoM and another's up nearly 25% MoM. Flake Graphite In June 2026, China's flake graphite imports were 4,147 mt, down 30% MoM and down 12% YoY. Data source: China Customs, SMM In June 2026, China's flake graphite exports were 5,089 mt, down 33% MoM and down 5% YoY. Both imports and exports of flake graphite saw significant MoM declines in June, mainly due to the high base effect in May and seasonal demand adjustments in and outside China, while the YoY decline was relatively mild. Phosphoric Acid According to China Customs data, China's phosphoric acid exports in Q2 2026 showed a clear retreat after a rapid rise. Exports surged to 40,200 mt in May before pulling back to 29,500 mt in June, down 26.5% MoM, but achieved positive YoY growth from June last year (up 3,500 mt). The continued expansion of overseas new energy rigid demand offset the short-term pace-driven decline. Based on the full-year policy pace and industry fundamentals, China's phosphoric acid trade is exhibiting zero imports, pure exports, strong policy fluctuations, and continuous structural upgrading as distinct characteristics. Annual exports are affected by both agricultural supply protection policies and off-peak/peak season cycles in and outside China, resulting in a pattern of regular consolidation. ....... Based on the H1 run rate, combined with the current policy cycle, overseas demand pace, and China's spot market fundamentals, the phosphoric acid sector in July–August of H2 2026 will remain in the phosphate fertiliser export control window period. Agricultural-grade crude phosphoric acid exports will be restricted, and total export volume will have a natural upper limit. Supported by the release of off-season restocking demand from overseas food and energy storage enterprises, phosphoric acid exports are expected to recover slightly from the low in June, returning above the monthly central level of 30,000 mt, which will partially offset the pressure of inventory buildup during China's agricultural off-season, using external demand resilience to establish a market floor. Correspondingly in the spot market, domestic agricultural demand in the traditional off-season is weak, but with high raw material cost support from sulfur and phosphate ore, small and medium-sized wet process plants continue to incur losses and operate at low loads, with enterprises generally controlling production to support prices. As a result, wet process phosphoric acid sees a stagnant consolidation pattern overall—weak but without room for a deep trend correction. Entering September–December, industry fundamentals and the foreign trade landscape will see significant improvement. The phosphate fertiliser export control policy officially expires on August 31, coupled with concentrated overseas restocking of agricultural inputs in Q4, year-end capacity sprints by Chinese LFP enterprises, and the concentrated delivery of overseas lithium battery long-term contract orders. Phosphoric acid exports will enter the peak period for the year, with monthly exports potentially exceeding 40,000 mt and hitting a yearly high. The overall export volume and trade surplus of the industry will rise in tandem. Both domestic and external demand surges are expected to drive the market toward an inflection point and an upward trend. Not only is demand for wet process phosphoric acid continuing to recover, but thermal process phosphoric acid will also benefit from concentrated stockpiling in food and electronic fine chemicals, strengthening in tandem and ushering in a peak season where both wet and thermal markets thrive. Phosphate Ore In H1 2026 (January-June), China's phosphate ore imports stood at 998,200 mt, a YoY increase of 29.66%; exports were 133,900 mt, a YoY surge of 225.91%; net imports reached 864,300 mt. Four Key Changes 1. Imports rebound to high levels of 2024 . H1 2026 imports of 998,200 mt represented a 29.66% increase from 769,800 mt in H1 2025, recovering to the 986,600 mt level of H1 2024. January 2026 saw a single-month peak of 243,900 mt, followed by April (206,600 mt) and March (182,100 mt) as secondary highs. On the import side, a significant rebound from the trough of H1 2025 (769,800 mt) confirms that a "high import" baseline has been established since 2024. 2. Export volume triples to a near four-year high . H1 2026 exports of 133,900 mt surged 225.91% from 41,100 mt in H1 2025, the highest since H1 2023 (191,300 mt). June (50,900 mt), May (32,200 mt), and April (11,100 mt) formed a Q2 volume ramp-up, highly coincident with Egypt's announcement on May 13 to cease signing new phosphate ore export contracts and shift to higher-value phosphate fertiliser exports. 3. Net imports remain high but narrow . Net imports in H1 2026 at 864,300 mt were notably higher than both H1 2024's 942,800 mt (historical peak) and H1 2025's 728,700 mt, reflecting a persistent domestic phosphate ore supply gap and still elevated external dependence. 4. H1 and H2 seasonal pattern disrupted. Historically, H1 imports are typically lower than H2 (cumulative H2 imports from 2020 to 2025 were 2.7531 million mt, significantly higher than the H1 cumulative), but H1 2026 imports of 998,200 mt are already close to H2 2025's 949,900 mt — the traditional Q3-Q4 winter stockpiling peak season rhythm has been disrupted, with imports becoming more year-round. ......... H2 Outlook: On the import side: As H1 imports have already reached 998,200 mt , and with winter stockpiling purchases plus LFP cathode material stockpiling (in preparation for the Q3-Q4 NEV peak season) in H2, H2 2026 imports are projected at 1.1-1.3 million mt, with full-year imports of 2.1-2.3 million mt, a YoY increase of 15%-25%, marking a new record high since 2023. Export side : June alone at 50,900 mt has shown signs of acceleration, and exports are expected to reach 100,000-200,000 mt from July to September. In Q4, alongside overseas demand (India, Southeast Asia, Brazil) and the restructuring of export competition among Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco, annual exports are projected at 200,000-300,000 mt, up 200%-300% YoY. Net imports: Net imports in 2026 are expected to be 1.7-2 million mt, remaining at historically high levels, reflecting that the contradiction of China's phosphate ore undersupply is hard to resolve fundamentally in the medium term, and dependence on outside China (Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Peru, Algeria) will continue to increase. 》Phosphate Ore Import and Export Half-Year Review: China’s Phosphate Ore Imports Rose to the Million mt Level in H1 2026, Exports Tripled [SMM Analysis] Sulphur & Sulphuric Acid Monthly China Sulphur Import Changes (H1 2025 vs. H1 2026) In H1 2026, China's sulphur imports showed a "monthly accelerating contraction" trend. From January to June, cumulative imports were about 2.26 million mt , versus 5.34 million mt in the same period of 2025, a sharp decline of 57.7% . The average monthly import volume plummeted from about 800,000 mt in 2025 to about 380,000 mt. From the monthly trend, imports in January-March held around 500,000 mt (496,000/538,000/516,000 mt); starting in April, they fell off a cliff , plunging to 296,000 mt in April and 268,000 mt in May, and in June hit 147,000 mt (down 85.1% YoY) —June's monthly imports had fallen to less than 20% of the same period in 2025 (988,000 mt). Compared with history, in full year 2025, imports were about 9.61 million mt , averaging about 800,000 mt per month, a steady volume, whereas the 147,000 mt in June 2026 has hit a rare low in recent years . If geopolitical conflicts and Kazakhstan's export ban persist, imports in H2 may come under further pressure, and the full-year total is expected to be only about 40% of the 2025 level . ....... Sulphur imports: cliff-like volume decline, source restructuring —H1 2026 imports of about 2.26 million mt, down 57.7% YoY (June down 85% YoY); the share of the four Middle Eastern countries was halved (from ~35% to ~20%), with South Korea, Oman, and Canada filling the gap (combined ~58%). Sulphuric acid exports: ban leads to near-zero —H1 2026 exports of about 780,000 mt, down 64% YoY; June exports were only about 980 mt, down 99.7% YoY , a cliff-like exit from the global market; destination Indonesia jumped to first place. Common Logic: Geopolitical conflicts and export controls dual effect , as China shifts from a global sulfur resource hub to self-protection contraction. Cobalt Side Cobalt Hydrometallurgy Intermediate Products In June 2026, China's imports of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products were about 10,961 mt in physical content, up 324% MoM, down 42% YoY. Among them, imports from DRC were about 10,815 mt in physical content, up 423% MoM, down 43% YoY. In June 2026, the average import price of China's cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products was $16,352/mt in physical content, down 1.54% MoM. This month, about 7,561 mt in physical content of imported intermediate products entered Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces through Entrepot Trade by Customs Special Control Area, accounting for 69% of total imports; Ordinary Trade about 2,849 mt, accounting for 26%; processing trade with imported materials about 550 mt, accounting for 5%. Unwrought Cobalt In June 2026, China's unwrought cobalt imports were about 1,120 mt, up 66% MoM and 105% YoY. In June, by country/region, the top three sources of refined cobalt imports were Indonesia, Russia, and Madagascar, with imports of 476 mt, 293 mt, and 148 mt, respectively. Although China's refined cobalt price pulled back significantly in June and the import/export window remained completely closed, overseas refined cobalt demand was weak, and some overseas traders still shipped refined cobalt to China, resulting in a relatively large increase in imports. Regarding average import price, in June 2026, the average import price of unwrought cobalt in China was $52,228/mt, down 4.27% MoM. From January to June 2026, cumulative imports were 7,709 mt, up 118% YoY. Export side, in June 2026, China's unwrought cobalt exports were about 503 mt, up 36% MoM, down 46% YoY. By country, the top three export destinations were the US, Taiwan, China, and the Netherlands, with exports of 132 mt, 125 mt, and 66 mt, respectively. Regarding average export price, in June 2026, the average export price of unwrought cobalt in China was $59,579/mt, up 11.56% MoM. From January to June 2026, cumulative exports were 2,664 mt, down 76% YoY.