[SMM Analysis]Weak Supply-Demand Pattern; Secondary Aluminum Prices Were Expected to Come Under Pressure and Pull Back in April

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Tight Supply and Recovering Demand Drove Magnesium Prices Steadily Higher This Week, Breaking 17,500] This week, China's magnesium industry chain as a whole held up well. On the raw material side, the dolomite market remained stable. Part of the suspended output in core production areas was supplemented by supply from surrounding regions, while stable operating rates at downstream primary magnesium smelting plants supported demand and the supply-demand balance. Affected by rising crude oil prices, subsequent delivered prices may rise slightly. The magnesium ingot market stayed firm, and both production and sales in major producing areas were strong. Geopolitical disruptions pushed up energy expectations, prompting producers to hold back sales and tightening supply. Rigid downstream demand, export order lock-ins, and a boost from industry conferences jointly drove magnesium prices higher. Offshore quotations were adjusted in line with ex-factory prices, and although bidding-based shipment prices were low at the beginning of the week, they rebounded later, while new orders declined. Magnesium powder remained firm, supported by higher magnesium ingot prices, while increased operating rates at magnesium plants ensured supply and both domestic and overseas demand recovered. The magnesium alloy market also stayed strong, with stable operating rates at top-tier enterprises, new capacity coming on stream, and downstream end-use demand being released, supported by ample orders and a supply-demand balance.

In Q1 2026, China’s aluminum semis exports showed a pronounced pattern of product-category divergence amid the interplay of three factors: the long-term impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates in December 2024, the divergence in demand structures outside China, and the sudden outbreak of geopolitical conflict in the Strait of Hormuz.....

SMM Steel News, March 31: According to SMM statistics, estimated total shipments of resources to mainstream markets this week were 168,200 mt, down 21.69% WoW from the previous week's shipment level. By market: Table 1: Comparison of Arrivals in Mainstream Markets Source: SMM Steel Shanghai market: HRC shipments to the Shanghai market fell notably WoW this week. Specifically, shipments from the Northeast and east China markets were basically stable, resources from North China declined slightly, while shipments from mainstream steel mills in South China dropped more markedly, mainly because mainstream steel mills recently prioritized deliveries of specialty steel products. In the short term, the Shanghai market has recently had limited advantages, and steel mill shipments are expected to remain basically stable. Shipments to the Shanghai market next week are expected to rebound rangebound WoW from this week. Chart-1: Arrivals in the Shanghai Market Source: SMM Steel Lecong market: Shipments to Lecong fluctuated rangebound WoW this week. Specifically, arrivals of local mainstream resources and North China resources both saw no significant WoW changes. Looking ahead, it is understood that local mainstream steel mill WG has recently seen another increase in export orders, while orders for specialty steel have also performed well. In the short term, domestic trade shipment levels are unlikely to increase substantially, so arrivals are expected to remain at a relatively low level in the near term. Chart-2: Arrivals in the Lecong Market Source: SMM Steel SMM publishes weekly HRC shipment data by destination in mainstream markets every Tuesday. To subscribe to or follow more data, please scan the QR code below.

As of March 31, the most-traded SHFE zinc contract closed at 23,480 yuan/mt, up 1,230 yuan/mt for the month, with a decline of 4.98%. Zinc prices plunged in March, briefly climbing to a high of 24,955 yuan/mt at the beginning of the month and falling to a low of 22,350 yuan/mt in the middle of the month, with the overall price center moving down significantly. After zinc prices plunged in March, how will they move in April?

In March, China’s composite PMI for aluminum processing registered 65.6%, rebounding strongly above the 50 mark.