[SMM Express] Zimbabwe's mineral export earnings jumped 84.7% in H1 2026 to US$2.532 billion, up from US$1.376 billion a year earlier, according to Minerals Marketing Corporation of Zimbabwe data. The surge was led by PGM matte, spodumene concentrate and PGM concentrates, which together accounted for over 74% of earnings — a marked departure from previous years when gold and raw chrome dominated the export mix. Within that shift, ferrochrome was singled out as one of the processed products "steadily supplanting raw mineral exports," alongside refined steel, polished granite and lithium sulphate. MMCZ's General Manager framed the change as evidence of beneficiation policy taking hold, with processed chrome product gradually displacing unprocessed ore in Zimbabwe's export basket. Industry stakeholders have also called for tighter mineral-tracking systems to guard against smuggling and transfer-pricing risk as the value of processed mineral exports rises.

As of July 30, China's major consumption regions reported aluminum ingot inventory of 953,000 mt, having cumulatively destocked 512,000 mt (-35%) from the year's high of 1.465 million mt in early May. Within the week, destocking accelerated further by 53,000 mt, as expected falling below the 1 million mt mark. However, the directional divergence between warehouse withdrawals and inventory drew attention: weekly warehouse withdrawals pulled back to 127,700 mt, losing the advantage of being at a high for the same period in the past four years. The core driving force of this destocking round has shifted from "demand and warehouse withdrawal boost" in June to "supply contraction + slowdown in shipment pace": the proportion of liquid aluminum rose to 78.3% in July, with casting ingot volume down 15.1% YoY; a sharp drop in arrivals in South China pushed Foshan's premium wider by 50 yuan/mt in a single week to 115 yuan/mt; SMM believes...

Zambian Ministry of Mines is advancing a proposal for a pan-African minerals and metals exchange to give producer nations greater control over mineral trading and pricing. Adviser Jito Kayumba said the plan builds on Zambia's metals-trading tie-up with Mercuria and has already been discussed with the DRC and two undisclosed countries. For lithium, the move aligns with Zimbabwe's SC6 export controls and Mali's Goulamina ramp-up, and could eventually offer an alternative to CIF China spodumene pricing as African-origin volumes grow through ports like Walvis Bay and Beira. DRC's Manono project (targeting 1Mt/y spodumene) would also fall within scope. SMM view: Early-stage and non-binding no confirmed members, governance, or timeline. Relevant to watch for delivered-cost and netback benchmarking on Zimbabwe/Mali/DRC assets, but limited near-term pricing impact.

The African Development Bank Group (AfDB) has officially approved a €100 million (approximately $114 million) loan to Gotion Power Morocco, a subsidiary of Gotion High‑Tech, for the construction of the first lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery gigafactory in Africa and the MENA region. As the lead arranger under the “New Architecture for Financing Africa's Development” (NAFAD) initiative, the AfDB also plans to raise up to an additional €141 million from partner financial institutions to ensure sufficient project funding. The project is located in Phase III of the Kenitra Atlantic Free Zone, in the Rabat‑Salé‑Kenitra region of Morocco, and covers the full industrial chain from cathode material production, cell manufacturing, to battery pack assembly. Phase I is planned with an annual capacity of 10 GWh for EV battery cells and packs; with subsequent phased expansions, the total capacity is expected to gradually reach 100 GWh in the long term. Phase I is projected to directly create more than 600 high‑skilled jobs and raise Morocco's local industrial integration rate to 70%, significantly boosting the local supplier ecosystem and technical workforce development. AfDB Vice President Kevin Kariuki noted that battery energy storage is the “missing piece” in Africa's clean energy transition. The plant will primarily operate on renewable energy (wind and solar power), which will not only support large‑scale grid integration of new energy but also provide low‑carbon and reliable energy storage solutions. Leveraging Morocco's abundant phosphate resources and China's advanced battery refining and manufacturing technologies, the project will accelerate the local high‑value‑added conversion of critical minerals, shifting away from the traditional export of raw materials. It will help Morocco establish itself as a green mobility industrial hub serving both Europe and the entire African continent. This investment is highly aligned with the AfDB's four strategic pillars: resilient infrastructure development, accelerated industrialization, regional integration, and value addition to natural resources. It marks a milestone in the improvement of Africa's new energy industrial chain.

On July 22, 2026, the first batch of spodumene concentrate produced by Manono Lithium – a company 54.9% owned by Zijin Mining – was shipped from Mutowa Port in Tanganyika Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), bound for international markets via Kigoma, Tanzania. Prior to shipment, the cargo was inspected and certified by the DRC's Centre d'Expertise, d'Évaluation et de Certification des Substances Minérales (CEEC), which stated that this transport marks the country's first-ever export of lithium products. The Governor of Tanganyika Province supervised the loading and noted that the shipment represents a key milestone for the province's integration into the regional mining trade network. He also called on the operating company to prioritize local hiring, so that the development of the mineral supply chain can generate more jobs and broader economic benefits for local residents. However, the commercial significance of the shipment remains difficult to assess, as the export volume, concentrate grade, transaction value, buyer identity, and final destination after arrival in Kigoma have not been disclosed. Future export plans have also not been announced.Manono Lithium operates the northeastern part of the Manono deposit under mining permit PE 15775. Its shareholding structure is: Zijin Mining affiliates hold 54.9%, DRC state-owned mining company Cominière holds 35.1%, and the DRC government holds 10%. The project is designed to process 5 million tonnes of ore annually, with a target output of approximately 1 million tonnes of spodumene concentrate per year. Subsequent crushing, flotation, and lithium compound processing facilities will be built in phases, and the first-stage lithium sulphate raw material production project is expected to be completed by the end of 2026.

July 31, 2026 – The main alumina futures contract closed at 2,621 yuan/ton today, extending its recent weak performance. On the previous trading day (July 30), prices briefly touched an intraday low of 2,617 yuan/ton, plunging 1.37% in a single session and marking a fresh near-term trough. Under the combined bearish pressures of sustained supply expansion, intensifying import competition, and fading speculative sentiment, the alumina market is undergoing a fundamental-driven valuation correction. However, unlike the sharp downturn seen in late 2025, the current significantly higher feedstock costs are building a support floor that may prove difficult to break through decisively. On the supply front, domestic alumina operating capacity remains persistently elevated, with incremental pressure continuing to accumulate. In the Guangxi region, previously idled production lines from maintenance shutdowns are steadily resuming operations, gradually restoring regional supply capacity. Meanwhile, the southern region still faces nearly 3 million tonnes of new capacity slated for release in the coming months, further reinforcing market expectations of a loosening supply landscape. The fading excitement surrounding bauxite supply news has further undermined sentimental support for futures prices. Concerns over Guinean bauxite supply disruptions, which once rattled the market, have gradually receded from the spotlight as time passes. With speculative long positions exiting amid waning media attention, the market has lost its sentiment premium, and prices are reverting to supply-demand fundamentals. Overseas supply continues to weigh heavily on the domestic market. Alumina imports have surged significantly this year, with port inventories climbing to a lofty 940,000 tonnes. The persistent inflow of foreign alumina has not only supplemented domestic availability but also placed sustained downward pressure on spot quotations. Weakening spot prices have formed a negative feedback loop with the futures market, reinforcing the downward price spiral. Nevertheless, despite the layered bearish arguments, current prices are not without defense. Compared with the December 2025 selloff that bottomed at 2,437 yuan/ton, expectations for downside floors differ markedly this time. Back then, Guinean bauxite prices were quoted only around $60/ton, while current prices have climbed to the $70-75/ton range, driving the industry average fully-loaded cost to approximately 2,530 yuan/ton. This materially higher cost base implies that even with deeply bearish fundamentals, a repeat of the free-fall price rout is unlikely to materialize, as cost support effects will strengthen marginally as prices decline. The potential opening of export arbitrage remains one of the few upside catalysts on the horizon. Should overseas alumina prices continue to rise while domestic prices remain subdued, widening the price differential sufficiently to cover export costs, export channels could open periodically, providing a marginal outlet for excess domestic capacity. However, even if such a window materializes, the volumes that can be diverted are unlikely to offset the incremental pressure from new capacity additions in the southern region. Export opportunities are more likely to serve as short-term sentiment-driven rebound catalysts rather than a sufficient condition for a trend reversal. Taken together, alumina prices are expected to trade within a narrow range in the near term, caught between the bearish excess supply narrative and cost support. The core trading range is projected at 2,600-2,650 yuan/ton. Given that market fundamentals are expected to remain loose through August, futures prices could breach the key 2,600 yuan psychological level, though downside potential appears limited by rigid cost support on the mining side.