On Tuesday, the most-traded SHFE tin SN2505 contract fluctuated downward during the day and continued to decline at night, while LME tin closed lower. Spot market: It was heard that small brands were at a discount of 200 to a premium of 100 yuan/mt for May, Yunzi brands were at a premium of 100 to 300 yuan/mt for May, and Yuntin was at a premium of 300 to 500 yuan/mt for May. Yunnan Tin: In 2024, the ore volume was 258 million mt, with tin metal content of 626,200 mt, copper metal content of 1.1499 million mt, zinc metal content of 3.661 million mt, indium content of 4,821 mt, tungsten trioxide content of 77,800 mt, lead metal content of 96,300 mt, and silver content of 2,460 mt. Overall, the earthquake delayed the expected resumption of production in Wa State, the resumption time of the Bisie mine in the DRC remains unclear, and the smelting in Malaysia was halted due to natural gas interruption with an uncertain resumption time. There are many disturbances in both the mine and smelting sectors, and the supply-demand imbalance is prominent. In Q2, cost support is expected to be strong. In the short term, futures prices are under pressure due to tariff impacts, and after the release of macro risks, a low-buy strategy is still preferred. (Source: Jinyuan Futures)

Last Friday, a sudden earthquake in Myanmar sparked concerns about the timely recovery of local tin ore supply. SHFE tin surged significantly at the beginning of the night session, once rising more than 3%, and then hovered at highs. Today, the center of tin prices shifted downward. As of the close, the most-traded contract's gain narrowed to 0.41%, closing at 282,350 yuan/mt. The 7.9-magnitude earthquake that occurred in Myanmar on March 28, 2025, had its epicenter located 16 km northwest of Sagaing, the capital of Sagaing Region in central Myanmar. The main tin-producing area of Wa State is located in northeastern Myanmar, bordering Yunnan Province, China, and is estimated to be approximately 300-450 km from the epicenter. Wa State is relatively far from the epicenter, so the direct impact of the earthquake on local supply may be relatively small, potentially mainly affecting tin ore transportation and the expected resumption of production in Wa State. The Ava Bridge leading to the Ruili port has collapsed, but the Meng'a port, currently the main port for transporting tin ore, has not yet been reported to be affected. The impact of the earthquake cannot be quantified at this time and remains to be continuously tracked. The tin mine in the DRC has ceased production, and the resumption time is uncertain, making it difficult to change the tightening trend of tin ore supply. The operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have started to pull back. According to SMM's processing data from in-depth market surveys, as of last Friday, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in these two important tin-producing provinces have declined to some extent, with a combined operating rate of 57.37%. Constrained by tight raw material supply, the overall supply-demand pattern remains tight. On the demand side, downstream solder companies mainly make just-in-time procurement, with high prices suppressing restocking intentions. Downstream inquiries and orders are relatively quiet, and sentiment is clearly cautious. However, the "trade-in" policy and high production schedules for home appliances provide potential support for demand. Regarding the future market, Jinrui Futures commented that the major earthquake in Myanmar last week has lowered market expectations for supply recovery. Recent domestic and overseas tin ore supply disruptions remain frequent, and domestic raw material supply may continue to be tight before the disruptions are resolved. Processing fees continue to decline, increasing future smelting production resistance. On the consumption side, recent price fluctuations have significantly weakened downstream procurement. Looking ahead, considering tight raw material supply and the short-term price strength weakening downstream, tin prices are expected to remain stuck at highs.

SMM Tin Midday Review: Smelters Maintain Strong Pricing Willingness While Downstream Enterprises Engage in Just-in-Time Procurement, Spot Market Trading Remains Sluggish. The most-traded SHFE tin 2505 contract jumped initially and then pulled back during the morning session, opening at 288,000 yuan/mt. Influenced by macro policy disturbances and supply-demand imbalance, it briefly surged to 289,500 yuan/mt before retreating under pressure, closing at 283,100 yuan/mt by midday, a slight increase of 0.67% from the previous day's settlement price. The intraday fluctuation range was 284,800-289,500 yuan/mt, with open interest increasing by 719 lots to 40,700 lots, and market sentiment leaning towards caution. LME tin prices also fluctuated, quoted at $35,710/mt during the Asian session, with enhanced linkage between SHFE and LME.

[SMM Tin Market Brief: Coexistence of Myanmar's Resumption Expectations and Peak Consumption Season Support, Short-Term Sideways Movement Likely to Persist] The most-traded SHFE tin SN2504 contract closed at 264,640 yuan/mt, up 760 yuan/mt or 0.29% from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated between 263,030-266,210 yuan/mt, showing a high-level oscillation pattern. In the morning session, prices opened higher, boosted by a weaker US dollar and domestic policy support, but gains narrowed due to pressure from Myanmar's resumption expectations. Open interest increased by 478 lots to 30,389 lots, indicating intensified tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Prices remained above the 20-day moving average, with the MACD indicator reflecting heightened tug-of-war and increased open interest signaling divergent capital views. In the short term, attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the resistance level at 265,000 yuan/mt and the support level at 260,000 yuan/mt...

[SMM Silicon Market February-March Brief: Silicon Metal Prices Continue to Decline, Market Slump Difficult to Break] From February to early March, spot silicon metal maintained a weak trend, with SMM east China above-standard #553 silicon down 250 yuan/mt, a decrease of 2.3% MoM. While spot prices remained weak, futures prices also fell to new lows after implementing new standards. On March 11, the most-traded Si2505 futures contract officially dropped below 10,000 yuan/mt, closing at 9,985 yuan/mt, down 805 yuan/mt or 7.5% MoM. The sharp decline in silicon metal futures prices, along with the inflow of warehouse warrants and non-standard supplies into the market, accelerated the drop in spot silicon metal prices, with pessimistic and negative market sentiment proving difficult to reverse.

Although expectations of Wa State's resumption of production at the end of February once suppressed tin prices, domestic macroeconomic optimism, coupled with expectations of tight supply on the mining side and anticipated growth in downstream demand such as semiconductors, drove tin prices in February to continue the upward trend of the previous two months. LME tin rose by 4.01% in February, while SHFE tin closed the month with a 3.19% increase. Entering March, despite the volatility of US tariff policies and the strengthened expectations of Wa State's tin mine resumption disrupting tin prices, the positive impact of the Two Sessions, combined with downstream restocking demand at lower prices and the weakening US dollar index boosting metal prices, led to a stabilization and rebound in tin prices. As of 16:09 on March 10, LME tin rose by 0.2% to $32,585/mt, with a temporary monthly increase of 4.07% in March; SHFE tin rose by 0.34% to 262,810 yuan/mt, with a temporary monthly increase of 2.99% in March.