SMM April 25 News: Metals market: As of the overnight close, base metals in both domestic and overseas markets generally rose, with only LME copper, LME aluminum, SHFE copper, and SHFE aluminum declining together. SHFE aluminum fell 0.38%, LME aluminum fell 0.19%, LME copper fell 0.16%, and SHFE copper fell 0.03%. The remaining metals all rose, with SHFE nickel leading the gains at 2.68%, LME nickel up 1.86%, and the rest rising less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract rose 2.48%, while the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.43%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally rose, with iron ore being the only decliner, falling 0.19%. Stainless steel rose 2.31%, while the remaining metals fluctuated slightly. In coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 0.63% and coke rose 0.46%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold rose 0.03% overnight but fell 3.16% on the week, ending a three-week winning streak. COMEX silver rose 0.24% but fell 7.52% on the week, ending a four-week winning streak. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.26% but fell 2.24% on the week, while SHFE silver rose 0.28% but fell 5.86% on the week. Overnight closing prices as of 8:24 AM, April 25: Macro Front China: [State Council Executive Meeting: Approved the "Regulations on the Procedures for the Formulation of Administrative Regulations (Revised Draft)"] Premier Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting. The meeting noted that the scientific formulation of administrative regulations is a fundamental task in comprehensively governing the country according to law. Efforts should be made to earnestly implement the "Regulations on the Procedures for the Formulation of Administrative Regulations," adhere to scientific, democratic, and law-based legislation, adapt to changes in economic and social development, promptly conduct legislative research, and carry out work on project applications, assessment and verification, drafting, and legislative review. Supporting regulations should be improved and refined, and legislative quality and efficiency should be continuously enhanced to provide necessary rule-of-law safeguards for reform and development. (Jin10 Data APP) To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on April 27, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 400 billion yuan MLF operation with a 1-year tenor through fixed-quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price winning bid methods. US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.3% to 98.53, but rose 0.32% on the week, rebounding after three consecutive weekly declines. According to ABC, the US Department of Justice was expected to drop the criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell as early as April 24. Washington, D.C. prosecutor Pirro stated that she was terminating the (criminal) investigation into the renovation costs of the Fed building but requested the Fed Inspector General to review the Fed's costs. Pirro said she would not hesitate to reopen the investigation into Powell if necessary. (Wallstreetcn) White House spokesperson Kush Desai issued a statement on X: "The White House continues to believe, as it has, that the Senate will swiftly confirm Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman." He added that regarding the cost overruns on the Fed building renovation project, the Fed Inspector General's office "has stronger authority and is therefore best suited to thoroughly investigate this matter." (Wallstreetcn) US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he would not run for public office after completing his current role, but also said he would not rule out accepting an offer to serve as Fed Chairman in the future. Regarding running for president or any other elected office, Bessent said: "I would take that option off the table... I'm going to be the Colin Powell of this administration." On potentially serving as Fed Chairman in the future, he said: "I wouldn't say no." He explained: "It doesn't require an election. You can shape the economy, and it's an institution." (Wallstreetcn) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the US Fed in April was 0.5%, with a 99.5% probability of holding rates unchanged. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by June was 5.1%, with a 94.4% probability of holding rates unchanged and a 0.5% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike. On the macro front: Next week from China, data to be released include China's year-to-date industrial profits of large-scale enterprises for March (YoY), China's industrial profits of large-scale enterprises for March (YoY), China's official manufacturing PMI for April, and China's RatingDog manufacturing PMI for April. From the US, data to be released include the US Fed interest rate decision as of April 29, the US April Dallas Fed business activity index, the US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending April 11, the US February FHFA house price index (MoM), the US February S&P/CS 20-city non-seasonally adjusted home price index (YoY), the US April Conference Board consumer confidence index, the US April Richmond Fed manufacturing index, the US March annualized housing starts, the US March durable goods orders (MoM), the US March building permits, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25, the US March core PCE price index (YoY), the US March personal spending (MoM), the US Q1 employment cost index (QoQ), the US Q1 real GDP annualized (QoQ, preliminary), the US Q1 real personal consumption expenditure (QoQ, preliminary), the US Q1 core PCE price index annualized (QoQ, preliminary), the US March core PCE price index (MoM), the US April Chicago PMI, the US March Conference Board leading indicators (MoM), the US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI (final), and the US April ISM manufacturing PMI. From the eurozone, data to be released include the eurozone April industrial confidence index, the eurozone April economic sentiment index, the eurozone April CPI (YoY, preliminary), the eurozone April CPI (MoM, preliminary), the eurozone Q1 GDP (YoY, preliminary), the eurozone March unemployment rate, the eurozone ECB deposit facility rate as of April 30, and the eurozone ECB main refinancing rate as of April 30. From Germany, data to be released include the Germany May GfK consumer confidence index, the Germany April CPI (MoM, preliminary), the Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment change, the Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, and the Germany Q1 non-seasonally adjusted GDP (YoY, preliminary). From the UK, data to be released include the UK April CBI retail sales balance, the UK central bank interest rate decision as of April 30, the UK April Nationwide house price index (MoM), the UK April manufacturing PMI (final), and the UK March central bank mortgage approvals. From Switzerland, data to be released include the Switzerland April ZEW investor confidence index, the Switzerland April KOF leading economic indicator, and the Switzerland March real retail sales (YoY). From Japan, data to be released include Japan's March unemployment rate and the Bank of Japan target rate as of April 28. Also to be released are France's Q1 GDP (YoY, preliminary), France's April CPI (MoM, preliminary), Australia's March non-seasonally adjusted CPI (YoY), Canada's central bank interest rate decision as of April 29, and Canada's February GDP (MoM). On April 27, 600 billion yuan in 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 500 million yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations will mature in China. On April 30 at 2:00 AM, the US Fed FOMC will announce its interest rate decision. Fed Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference. The ECB will announce its interest rate decision, and ECB President Lagarde will hold a monetary policy press conference. The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo will hold a monetary policy press conference, and the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision and outlook report. The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report, and Bank of England Governor Bailey will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices in the two markets showed mixed performance, with WTI falling 1.01% and Brent rising 0.77%. On a weekly basis, WTI surged 14.88% and Brent surged 17.15%. The sharp weekly gains in crude oil were mainly driven by market concerns over supply disruptions. At the same time, expectations that the US and Iran may restart peace negotiations provided the possibility of easing tight supply. The Trump administration extended the Jones Act-related shipping waiver by 90 days, which was designed to facilitate the transportation of oil, fuel, and fertilizer within the US. The decision extended the existing waiver, originally set to expire on May 17, by approximately three months, allowing foreign-flagged vessels to transport cargo between US ports until mid-August. Normally, under the 1920 Jones Act, goods transported by water between US domestic ports must use US-flagged, US-built, and US-owned vessels. Trump's waiver temporarily lifted these restrictions for coal, crude oil, refined petroleum products, natural gas, natural gas condensates, fertilizer, and other energy derivatives. (Jin10 Data APP) Iran continued loading millions of barrels of oil onto supertankers, although this activity will only become increasingly difficult if the US continues to block Tehran's shipping. Satellite images taken on Monday showed a giant crude oil carrier with a capacity of approximately 2 million barrels docked at Kharg Island's terminal. Images taken the previous Saturday showed no vessels docked at Kharg Island at that time. With no evidence that significant volumes of oil have bypassed the US blockade, Iran was likely simply loading crude onto available vessels in the region. The US stated that its maritime barrier in the Sea of Oman had blocked nearly 30 Iranian vessels from passing through, preventing Iranian crude from reaching clients. As the Trump administration seeks to cut Iran's vital oil revenues, market observers are looking for evidence of how long Tehran can sustain its oil production. (Jin10 Data APP) Saudi Arabia significantly increased crude oil exports through its Red Sea terminal but has not yet stabilized flows through this alternative route at target levels. Data showed that during the first three weeks of April, daily average crude shipments from Yanbu port to overseas markets were approximately 4 million barrels, roughly five times the level before the Iran conflict erupted, but still only about 80% of Riyadh's target. After Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz in late February, the oil market has been closely monitoring oil shipments from Saudi Arabia's west coast terminal. Yanbu port is currently the largest single alternative to the strait blockade for the oil industry. The east-west pipeline can transport 7 million barrels per day of crude from oil fields near Saudi Arabia's Persian Gulf coast to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, of which approximately 2 million barrels are used domestically. (Jin10 Data APP) A Dallas Fed survey showed that as the ongoing conflict involving Iran disrupts global supply and pushes up crude oil and fuel prices, US oil executives expect domestic production to rise. The survey collected data from 120 oil and natural gas companies between April 15-20, including 78 exploration and production companies and 42 oilfield services companies. The survey showed that 43% of respondents expected US crude oil production to increase by up to 250,000 barrels per day this year due to the Iran war. This expectation differs from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast, which estimated US crude oil production would decrease by 70,000 barrels in 2026. About two-thirds of respondents believed that at least 90% of currently shut-in Persian Gulf crude oil would eventually return to the market. When asked when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would return to normal levels, 20% of respondents said next month, 39% said August, and the rest said November or later. Most executives expected transportation costs in the Persian Gulf region to rise after the conflict ends, with more than one-third indicating costs would increase by $2-4 per barrel. (Jin10 Data APP)

[SMM Steel] India became a net exporter of finished steel in FY2025–26, with exports rising 36% YoY to 6.6 mln mt, exceeding imports by 78,000 mt. Growth was driven by strong EU demand, with Europe accounting for a major share and exports to Vietnam surging to 772,000 mt. However, the outlook remains uncertain as EU safeguard quotas are set to tighten from July and CBAM costs increase, reducing competitiveness. At the same time, the Iran conflict has disrupted shipments to the GCC and pushed up freight costs, prompting mills to scale back exports. While opportunities exist in CRC exports and markets like Vietnam and the Middle East, these are tempered by policy risks and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

[SMM Steel] The EUROFER has called on EU lawmakers to swiftly implement new steel trade measures to counter a record surge in imports. The proposed mechanisms, including quotas and tariffs, aim to protect domestic producers from low-cost foreign competition and safeguard market share. EUROFER warned that rising imports are undermining local production, threatening jobs, and weakening investment in low-carbon steel technologies under the EU Green Deal. The association also stressed that any dilution of the measures could leave the industry exposed, especially amid high energy costs and CBAM-related pressures. Successful implementation is expected to stabilize the market and support long-term investment, while failure could lead to plant closures and supply chain disruptions.

China's imports of silver (unwrought silver ingots with purity ≥99.99%, HS code 71069110) reached 398.62 mt in March, up 93% MoM from February, fulfilling expectations that silver ingot imports would maintain their upward momentum. Total silver imports from January to March 2026 reached 639.91 mt, up 5,346% YoY compared with 11.75 mt in Q1 2025. Historically, against the backdrop of a sharp increase in demand from China's PV industry in 2023, the price gap between the Chinese and international silver markets gradually widened, and silver imports also surged significantly. () The similarity between this round of silver ingot import window opening and the historical one lies in the short-term surge in PV industry demand — 2023 marked the initial large-scale commissioning of silver powder and silver paste capacity, while 2026 saw short-term stockpiling demand driven by the PV export rush. Behind both import windows was rigid demand for physical silver in industrial production. The difference, however, is that in 2026, precious metals experienced a rare bull market driven by both industrial demand and the interest rate cut cycle, with retail investment demand further tightening already scarce industrial raw materials. As a result, significant spot premiums emerged in China's spot silver ingot market, boosting profits from physical imports. It is understood that in addition to silver ingots, silver-containing products and crude silver raw materials also entered the Chinese market in large quantities as semi-manufactured products for further processing into silver ingots and market circulation. Specifically, the driving factors behind this round of import surge were: 1. PV industry export rush stockpiling Solar cell and module manufacturers needed to complete order deliveries before the export tax rebate cancellation on April 1, leading to massive raw material stockpiling by midstream processing firms in Q1, with some individual manufacturers being the core drivers of the industrial import surge. 2. Retail investment demand: Against the macro backdrop of global interest rate cuts, US debt crisis concerns, and safe-haven demand in Q1, gold and silver became important asset allocation options, with silver gaining popularity as a "gold alternative." After gold prices repeatedly hit new highs, small-denomination investment silver bars were heavily traded as an alternative to high-priced gold. 3. Sustained arbitrage window Driven by robust demand, Chinese silver prices were significantly higher than London spot prices. With stable SHFE silver premiums, global traders were incentivized to ship silver to China for arbitrage. Even silver ingots exported through China's processing trade were not shipped to Europe or the US but were instead re-imported by traders directly into the Shenzhen market, forming a unique "export-to-domestic-sales" pathway. Q2 outlook: Entering Q2, the explosive growth in silver ingot imports is unlikely to sustain. Although Chinese silver ingots still carry a premium over London prices, demand for physical silver ingots and spot premiums have changed, with some traders' imported silver ingots already experiencing sluggish sales since late March. On one hand, domestic industrial and investment demand declined simultaneously, and the spot market weakened further. After the PV export rush orders ended, silver nitrate manufacturers' purchasing enthusiasm dropped sharply. Additionally, as silver prices moved sideways and uncertainties from Middle East conflicts dampened precious metals investment sentiment, funds that had previously flowed into the precious metals market shifted back to high-momentum markets such as US dollar, US Treasuries, and crude oil. Chinese silver ingots gradually transitioned from "hard to find" in April to "trading at discounts with no buyers." Approaching month-end, suppliers began lowering premiums to offload inventory or transfer stock for SHFE delivery. On the other hand, import profit margins were significantly compressed, mainly because spot premiums, which peaked at 3,650 yuan/kg in February, had pulled back to near parity by April. Some suppliers even sold at discounts due to cash flow needs, causing import silver ingot profits to decline sharply and the arbitrage window to close. Overall, the record-breaking silver imports in Q1 this year were a "pulse-like" event driven by both retail investment enthusiasm and PV stockpiling rush. As both driving factors fade simultaneously, combined with an assessment of actual import order performance in the trade market, imports in April are expected to pull back.

As of April 24, SMM APT CIF Rotterdam averaged $3,050/mtu, down $135 WoW; Ferro-tungsten averaged $300/kg W, down $20 WoW. Trading remained thin as buyers and sellers stayed on the sidelines amid heightened wait-and-see sentiment.

The European Commission has moved to restrict funding for solar projects utilizing inverters from "high-risk vendors" to bolster cybersecurity. Effective immediately, new guidelines require compliance with strict security standards. Pipeline projects have specific transition windows (notification by May 1, 2026), while non-EU-connected projects must phase out high-risk hardware by April 15, 2027. This decision follows growing EU concern regarding over-reliance on limited inverter suppliers and potential security vulnerabilities, echoing recent preventative measures taken by nations including Lithuania and the Netherlands.