[SMM Analysis: Looking back at H1 2026, the polysilicon market, due to prominent overcapacity issues compounded by historical inventory and other factors, although occasionally rebounding on the back of policy expectations, the overall downward "downtrend" persisted. Looking ahead to H2 2026, SMM believes that from the supply-demand or capacity side, it is difficult to see significant spontaneous improvement. Key focus areas are policy expectations and cost dynamics—cost determines the price floor, while policy determines the price trend.

Since the start of the year, growth in the European solar market has slowed markedly. SMM expects total new solar installations in the European market to fall to around 68.5GW in 2026, a year on year decline of about 2 percent. Alongside softening demand, multiple EU level supply chain restriction policies continue to advance, including the Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA), the Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA), and restrictive measures targeting inverters from so called high risk countries.

Novelis said Europe’s aluminium demand is expected to rise by about 30% by 2040, driven by EVs, renewable energy, construction and packaging. While recycled aluminium has become increasingly important due to its 95% lower energy consumption than primary production, the company said recycling alone cannot meet future demand for high-performance applications such as aerospace, electrical systems and advanced automotive alloys. Novelis called for a balanced strategy combining expanded recycling with competitive low-carbon primary aluminium production.

The first contract for Huashang Xiamen Geng's 600 Nm³/h hydrogen production equipment exported to Italy has officially come into effect recently. This project, with Huashang International responsible for market development outside China and Huashang Xiamen Geng responsible for implementation, marks a new breakthrough for the enterprise in the European market, following its export of 600 Nm³/h hydrogen production equipment to Indonesia last year. According to the project arrangement, Huashang Xiamen Geng will provide the client with design and manufacturing services for 600 Nm³/h containerized skid-mounted hydrogen production equipment. The system encompasses core modules such as alkaline electrolyzers, power supply, separation unit, purification equipment, cooling unit, and control system , forming a complete hydrogen production solution. This batch of equipment plans to obtain the EU "4+1" CE certification, marking the first time in China that alkaline electrolyzer hydrogen production equipment is exported to the EU with the "4+1" CE certification. The equipment offers high technical guarantees in terms of overall energy consumption, energy consumption attenuation, load fluctuation range, noise level, and power supply efficiency, and will be used for off-grid green hydrogen production via PV on an abandoned industrial site in Italy. The effectiveness of this contract not only signifies the project's entry into the execution phase but also reflects the further enhanced adaptability of China's alkaline water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment in the European market. Facing the EU's requirements in safety standards, equipment certification, and green hydrogen subsidies, Huashang Xiamen Geng, through early technical assessment and solution design, provides support for the client's subsequent application for EU green hydrogen subsidies. Huashang Xiamen Geng was jointly established by Huashang Energy and the Jia Geng Innovation Laboratory of Xiamen University. Leveraging fundamental research in materials chemistry, it continuously conducts technological innovation on core materials and components such as electrodes, separators, and diffusion layers in alkaline water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment, thereby building hydrogen production technology capabilities characterized by low energy consumption, wide power response, and rapid cold start. Huashang International is responsible for the enterprise's overseas business expansion. It has established subsidiaries in eight countries, including the US, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, the UK, Singapore, the UAE, and the Netherlands, as well as global service centers in 24 countries and regions, with over 38 service stations. With the advancement of the Italian project, Huashang Xiamen Geng is expected to further enhance its influence in the European green hydrogen equipment market.

The reporter learned from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology that today, July 2, three mandatory national standards in the PV sector were officially approved and released. These standards set rigid constraints on energy consumption and energy efficiency across the entire chain of polysilicon, wafers, PV modules, and inverters, using standardized measures to refine the green management and control system of the PV industry chain, and providing institutional support for the high-quality development of the new energy industry. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the State Administration for Market Regulation, released three mandatory national standards on PV energy consumption and efficiency: "Energy Consumption Limit per Unit Product of Monocrystalline Silicon", "Energy Efficiency Limits and Energy Efficiency Grades for Crystalline Silicon PV Modules and Inverters", and "Energy Consumption Limit per Unit Product of Polysilicon and Germanium". These standards cover key segments of the PV industry chain including polysilicon, wafers, modules, and inverters, set energy consumption and energy efficiency indicators for relevant products by grade, and strictly control high-energy-consumption and low-efficiency capacity in each link; for modules, they innovatively incorporate the evaluation indicator of coupled environmental stress-induced degradation rate.

[Geopolitical Risk Premium Continues to Narrow, Aluminum Prices in the Doldrums] Progress has been made in indirect technical talks between the US and Iran, with discussions on fund repatriation and Strait security. Consultations on the nuclear issue are about to begin. The geopolitical risk premium continues to narrow. The dispute over management rights of the Strait of Hormuz persists, and uncertainty remains over the resumption of Strait navigation. The Federal Reserve's hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, weighing on nonferrous metal prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices fell in and outside China. In the short term, bearish factors dominate, and aluminum prices are expected to stay in the doldrums.