SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight LME copper opened at $14,208/mt, touched a high of $14,218/mt in early fluctuations, then drifted lower all the way to $14,142/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at $14,153/mt, up 0.23%. Trading volume was 15,700 lots, and open interest stood at 261,000 lots, an increase of 2,675 lots from the previous trading day, indicating an increase in bearish positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 108,200 yuan/mt, with the price center moving up to touch 108,320 yuan/mt in early trading, then drifting lower to a low of 107,900 yuan/mt, before closing at 108,000 yuan/mt, up 0.04%. Trading volume reached 21,000 lots, and open interest was 213,000 lots, a decrease of 1,714 lots from the previous trading day, indicating a decrease in bearish positions.

SMM, August 6: In Guangdong, spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 90 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 107,900 yuan/mt, up 910 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 107,820 yuan/mt, up 930 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory increased again, mainly due to higher arrivals and weaker consumption. Copper prices continued to rise and hit a recent high, so downstream enterprises purchased cautiously, and suppliers had to keep lowering prices to sell, but transactions remained sluggish. In Guangdong, the electrolytic copper purchase sentiment index was 2.30, down 0.1 from the previous trading day, and the shipment sentiment index was 2.83, up 0.02 (historical data can be accessed via the database query). Overall, with copper prices hitting a recent high, downstream buyers were unwilling to purchase, and suppliers had to cut prices to sell, resulting in lackluster trading.

SMM August 5: Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper at 110 yuan/mt (up 10 yuan/mt), standard-quality copper at a premium of 30 yuan/mt (up 30 yuan/mt), SX-EW copper at a discount of 30 yuan/mt (up 30 yuan/mt). Guangdong #1 copper cathode averaged 106,990 yuan/mt (up 450 yuan/mt), SX-EW copper averaged 106,890 yuan/mt (up 460 yuan/mt). Spot market: Guangdong inventory ended a two-day increase streak and declined again, mainly due to reduced arrivals; some smelters were reportedly preparing for export. With inventory drawdown, suppliers actively held prices firm, but constrained by sustained copper price rises, downstream users were cautious in purchasing, and spot trades were poor. Today, buying sentiment for electrolytic copper in Guangdong was at 2.40 (down 0.02), and selling sentiment at 2.81 (down 0.04) (Historical data can be viewed by logging into the SMM database). Overall, with declining inventory, suppliers held prices firm, but cautious downstream procurement led to overall poor trades.

SMM Morning Briefing: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,754.5/mt, dipped to a low of $13,740/mt in early trading, then its center rose to a high of $13,836/mt, subsequently moved sideways and eventually closed at $13,978.5/mt, up 1.3%. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots, and open interest stood at 246,000 lots, a decrease of 342 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting a reduction in bearish positions. Overnight the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 105,370 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 105,250 yuan/mt early in the session, then its center rose to a high of 105,750 yuan/mt, eventually moved sideways to close at 105,560 yuan/mt, up 0.75%. Trading volume reached 40,000 lots, and open interest stood at 197,000 lots, an increase of 1,132 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting an increase in bullish positions.

SMM July 22 News: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper quoted at 170 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper quoted at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,865 yuan/mt, up 685 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,760 yuan/mt, up 685 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory edged up today, mainly due to increased arrivals and reduced warehouse withdrawals. With higher inventory and a notable rebound in copper prices, suppliers found it difficult to hold prices firm and could only sell at levels maintained from yesterday, while downstream users merely purchased as needed, resulting in overall trading activity weaker than yesterday. The purchasing sentiment for electrolytic copper in Guangdong today was 2.61, down 0.05 from the previous trading day, and the shipment sentiment was 2.85, down 0.05 from the previous trading day (historical data can be accessed via the database). Overall, the rebound in copper prices dampened restocking enthusiasm among downstream buyers, and spot trades were weaker than yesterday.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Looking ahead to next week, the inter-month spread has fully shifted to a backwardation structure, with the backwardation widening to 20-90 yuan/mt. Suppliers are showing strong sentiment to hold back from selling, while social inventory continues to destock rapidly, leaving the pattern of tight available spot cargo unchanged. Overall, under the combined support of the backwardation structure, inventory destocking, and supplier reluctance to sell, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2607 contract are expected to remain at a premium next week, with the overall strength persisting. Attention should be paid to changes in market structure around delivery and the pace of downstream restocking.