[SMM Steel] India’s finished steel imports surged 31% YoY to 679,000 mt in April, fueled by high domestic prices that created a profitable arbitrage gap for foreign suppliers. This growth was further bolstered by a slight reduction in safeguard duties and the cost-effectiveness of FTA-origin materials, such as duty-exempt Japanese steel. Additionally, logistical disruptions in the Middle East caused Asian shipments to be diverted to Indian ports, while imports from a key South Korean mill rose by over 30% month-on-month. However, the outlook remains uncertain, as the approaching June monsoon season may dampen domestic demand and weaken prices, potentially narrowing the current window for profitable importing.

In Q1 2026, China's hydrogen energy industry officially moved beyond the concept verification phase and fully entered a new stage of large-scale development. Two landmark events—the commissioning of Xinjiang Sunion Energy’s coke oven gas hydrogen production project and the cumulative hydrogen refueling volume exceeding 10,000 kilograms at the Batuta heavy-haul railway hydrogen refueling station in Inner Mongolia—have validated the core industry trend of cost reduction, scenario expansion and regional agglomeration from the two dimensions of low-cost hydrogen supply and diversified application scenarios respectively. I. Market Status: Accelerated Large-scale Development, Dual Breakthroughs in Supply and Application Hydrogen production capacity has achieved leapfrog growth, with Northwest and North China emerging as core agglomeration hubs. Driven by the dual-carbon strategy, China’s hydrogen production capacity has seen explosive growth. As of the end of March 2026, the completed and under-construction renewable energy hydrogen production capacity across China has surpassed 1 million tons per annum, among which the operational capacity exceeds 250,000 tons per annum, more than doubling compared with the end of 2024. The industrial layout shows a high geographical concentration; Northwest and North China have become core clusters by virtue of resource endowments.Jilin (over 90,000 tons per annum) and Inner Mongolia (over 80,000 tons per annum) have registered rapid development. The operational hydrogen production capacity in Northeast China accounts for 45.7% of the national total, shaping the initial industrial pattern of hydrogen supply from west to east and hydrogen transmission from north to south . The supply structure continues to optimize, and industrial by-product hydrogen production has become the mainstay of low-cost hydrogen supply. Currently, profound adjustments are taking place in China’s hydrogen supply structure. Boasting low cost and waste-to-energy advantages, industrial by-product hydrogen production has become the most economical pathway at this stage. Purifying hydrogen from coal chemical by-product coke oven gas features nearly zero raw material cost, perfectly matching cost-sensitive industrial scenarios. Meanwhile, driven by technological iteration, the cost of green hydrogen in multiple regions of Northwest China has dropped to 12–15 RMB per kilogram, gradually approaching the cost of gray hydrogen and laying a foundation for long-term low-carbon hydrogen supply. Application scenarios have evolved from demonstration to diversification, with industry and transportation acting as core growth engines. The year 2026 is regarded as the inaugural year for large-scale industrial application of hydrogen energy, with scenarios expanding rapidly into in-depth application fields. In the transportation sector, the commercial operation of hydrogen heavy-duty trucks has matured, with a thousand-unit scale put into operation in Lvliang, Shanxi. The launch of hydrogen refueling stations for heavy-haul railways fills the gap in carbon emission reduction for rail transit. In the industrial sector, a closed-loop model of on-site hydrogen production and consumption via by-product purification has taken shape among chemical enterprises. Industrial decarbonization has replaced transportation as the core driving force for industry growth. II. Recent Project Highlights: Two Benchmark Projects Accurately Align with Market Trends Xinjiang Sunion Energy’s coke oven gas hydrogen production project sets a model for industrial by-product hydrogen production. Recently, Xinjiang Sunion Energy’s 5,000 Nm³/h green hydrogen production project using coke oven gas was fully put into operation. The project converts waste industrial coke oven gas into high-purity clean hydrogen, realizing waste recycling and effectively solving exhaust emission problems, while supplying low-cost hydrogen to methanol plants. Furthermore, it provides a replicable development model for coal chemical agglomeration areas in Northwest China and boosts regional hydrogen supply capacity. The Batuta Hydrogen Refueling Station in Inner Mongolia marks a milestone in hydrogen energy application for heavy-haul railways. As of April 16, 2026, China’s first hydrogen refueling station for heavy-haul railways—the Batuta Station—has recorded a cumulative hydrogen refueling volume of over 10,000 kilograms. Equipped with a 45 MPa skid-mounted compressor and a maximum hydrogen refueling flow rate of 7.2 kg/min, the station is specially built for high-power hydrogen-powered shunting locomotives. It marks substantive progress in the application of hydrogen energy to heavy-haul railways, addresses the high-emission pain point of traditional locomotives, and verifies the stability of high-flow hydrogen refueling equipment under extreme cold and high-load operating conditions. III. Summary and Outlook In Q1 2026, China's hydrogen energy industry has entered a pragmatic stage focusing on economic efficiency calculation. From the utilization of coke oven gas in Xinjiang to hydrogen refueling for railways in Inner Mongolia, the industrial development logic is shifting from policy-driven alone to multi-dimensional driving led by resources, application scenarios and economic viability, which is expected to reshape the energy consumption pattern of industrial and transportation sectors.

The US Department of Commerce (DOC) has announced the preliminary results of its administrative review of the antidumping (AD) duty order on large diameter welded pipe from India for the period of May 1, 2023, to April 30, 2024. The DOC preliminarily found that Welspun Corp Limited and its affiliates did not sell the subject merchandise at less than normal value, assigning a dumping margin of 0.00%. Additionally, the review was rescinded for 12 other Indian companies as they had no reviewable shipments during the period. This preliminary zero-margin finding for a major producer suggests a potential easing of trade barriers for specific Indian pipe exports, though final results are pending.

The Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) has initiated an expiry review of the anti-dumping (AD) duties currently applied to stainless steel seamless pipes originating from Ukraine. The existing duty rate of 18.96% will remain in effect throughout the investigation period, which covers data from 2022 to 2025, with the specific dumping analysis period set as January 1 to December 31, 2025. This move aims to determine whether the removal of duties would lead to a recurrence of dumping and injury to the domestic industry within the Eurasian Economic Union. The extension of these measures limits the price competitiveness of Ukrainian stainless pipes in the EAEU market, maintaining a protective environment for regional producers.

On May 1, 2026, the U.S. announced it would hike tariffs on EU-made cars and trucks to 25% this week, citing the EU’s failure to uphold the August 2025 trade agreement. The move is widely seen as a retaliation against the EU's proposed 50% MFN tariffs on steel imports. Amidst this escalating friction, major European stainless steel producers are capitalizing on the protectionist wave, projecting a doubling of earnings by 2028. This outlook reflects a strategic bet on surging regional prices and structural supply shortages as EU trade defense measures and CBAM reshape the industrial landscape.

[SMM Platinum & Palladium Weekly Review] This week (April 27 – April 30), the most-traded PT2606 futures contract on China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange opened at 504 yuan/gram and closed at 489.55 yuan/gram, down 13.35 yuan/gram (2.65%) from last week's settlement price, with the highest price at 511.45 yuan/gram and the lowest price at 480.65 yuan/gram; the most-traded PD2606 futures contract opened at 365 yuan/gram and closed at 364.65 yuan/gram, up 2.9 yuan/gram (0.79%) from last week's settlement price, with the highest price at 368.2 yuan/gram and the lowest price at 350.45 yuan/gram. In terms of futures trading: the most-traded PT2606 contract recorded a total weekly trading volume of 18,824 lots with a total turnover of 9.305 billion yuan and open interest of 15,008 lots, down 512 lots WoW. The most-traded PD2606 contract recorded a total weekly trading volume of 11,512 lots with a total turnover of 4.128 billion yuan and open interest of 7,526 lots, down 317 lots WoW. US-Iran conflict: Geopolitical concerns remained unresolved. On April 28, Iran demanded transit fees from passing vessels. On April 29, the US prohibited US individuals or entities from paying Hormuz transit fees to Iran, and non-US individuals or entities paying Hormuz security transit fees to Iran would also face significant sanctions risks. On April 30, Trump reiterated that Iran abandoning nuclear weapons was the bottom line and said negotiations with Iran were being conducted by phone. US monetary policy: The US Fed maintained interest rates unchanged as expected, but divisions intensified, with one member advocating an interest rate cut and three opposing the release of dovish signals. Middle East tensions and energy price fluctuations further amplified uncertainty over the economic outlook. Powell announced that after stepping down as chair, he would remain at the US Fed as a governor with his term extending into early 2028, breaking the decades-long convention of outgoing chairs departing when their successors took office. Powell stated that the Trump administration's legal actions were threatening the US Fed's ability to set monetary policy free from political interference and undermining the institution's stability. Trade and tariffs: After the reciprocal tariffs were overturned, Trump continued to push high tariffs through Executive Orders 122, 232, and 301; the US Department of Commerce and USITC's final antidumping and countervailing duty determinations on Russian palladium could lead to tariff raises, with attention on US palladium regional premiums. On the events front, continued focus should be on Middle East geopolitical developments and US Fed officials' speeches. Attention should also be paid to palladium trial results in the fiberglass sector.