According to data from China Customs, in January-May 2026, China’s combined imports of refined lead and lead products totaled 248,443 mt, surging 291.06% YoY on a cumulative basis. The import window was wide open for most of H1, and overseas cargoes kept pouring in. Total imports had already exceeded the full-year 2025 level. On the export side, combined exports of refined lead and lead products in January-May amounted to only 20,197 mt, down 32.49% YoY, remaining at low levels.

Brazilian distributors sold 341,300 tonnes of steel in May, while purchases rose to 340,600 tonnes. Inventories stayed at 1.157 million tonnes, equal to 3.4 months of consumption. April imports fell to 120,900 tonnes, and May imports dropped 71.1% YoY. With fewer low-priced Chinese imports, price support is improving, especially for Galvalume, and INDA expects Brazil’s steel market to recover moderately in H2."

The Government of Japan formally announced plans to deploy steep anti-dumping duties targeting imports of nickel-containing cold-rolled stainless steel coils, sheets, and strips from China and Taiwan, effective as early as next month. Following a detailed trade investigation launched in July 2025 after joint industrial complaints from Nippon Steel and Nippon Yakin Kogyo, authorities confirmed that the products were sold at artificially low dumped margins. Ad valorem penalty rates will reach up to 45% for Chinese shipments (including TISCO and POSCO PZSS) and up to 21% for Taiwanese goods

Japan preliminarily determined to impose anti-dumping duties on nickel-bearing cold-rolled stainless steel coil, sheet and strip from China and Taiwan, after finding the imports were dumped and caused material injury to domestic producers. Trade minister Ryosei Akazawa said rates could reach about 45% for Chinese goods and about 21% for Taiwanese goods, with duties possibly taking effect as soon as July. The case, jointly run by METI and the Finance Ministry, began in July 2025 on a complaint led by Nippon Steel and Nippon Yakin Kogyo. China supplies about 20% of Japan's steel-product imports and Taiwan 17%. The measure would close an export outlet for Chinese and Taiwanese 300-series CR stainless amid global overcapacity, likely diverting tonnage to Southeast Asia and other markets.

South Africa-based GeT Metal Group and its subsidiary GeT Alloys have launched a waste-to-energy project that converts end-of-life tyres into industrial fuel for aluminium recycling operations. The initiative is designed to process around 150,000 waste tyres annually and produce approximately 1.44 million litres of fuel, fully replacing the company’s annual heavy fuel oil consumption used in aluminium melting. GeT estimates the project will reduce heavy fuel oil use by 1.44 million litres per year and cut carbon dioxide emissions by around 720 tonnes. The programme will also divert nearly 12,500 waste tyres per month from landfills and illegal dumping sites. GeT Alloys recycles around 350 million used beverage cans, packaging materials and post-consumer aluminium scrap annually into aluminium ingots. Carbon black generated during tyre processing will be used in aluminium dross recovery, while recovered steel wire will be recycled into steel billets, creating a circular economy model across both aluminium and steel value chains.

HRC prices: Over the coming year, from 2026 to 2027, China has nearly 40 million mt of HRC capacity projects under planning and construction, with production expected to increase further in 2026. Demand side, China's macro policies are expected to remain accommodative, and the manufacturing sector is likely to continue introducing policies to stimulate consumption, with demand expectations staying resilient. However, affected by anti-dumping measures and export structure adjustments, the decline in HRC exports will weigh on the domestic high-supply pattern. Overall, HRC prices are expected to continue hovering at lows in 2026. But considering that overseas geopolitical conflicts are pushing up inflation expectations and transmitting to commodity prices, coupled with coal and coke prices hitting bottom in 2025 and entering a new recovery uptick cycle, against the backdrop of cost push, the average HRC price may rebound slightly compared to 2025. Looking ahead to the next five years, considering that the peak period of new production capacity has passed, with the accelerated promotion of industry mergers and reorganizations and the continuous optimization of the capacity structure, HRC supply growth is expected to gradually slow down and stabilize starting from 2027. SMM expects that around 2028, a policy package of supply-side production restrictions plus steel export scale tightening may re-emerge, and the improvement in the overcapacity contradiction may bring about a round of upside opportunities for HRC prices. However, unlike the intensity of the 2015 supply-side reforms that were coupled with real estate easing and shantytown renovation destocking policies, after the phased capacity removal ends, the overall downward trend in China's steel consumption will be hard to reverse, which will limit the upside room of this HRC price rally driven by supply-demand imbalance easing. Additionally, the supply-demand pattern of iron ore trending looser will also pull down costs, and HRC prices are expected to come under pressure again after a brief rise. Steel mill profits: Considering that China's surplus steel capacity is resolved through steel exports, this necessitates China's steel prices to stay relatively low to support price advantages and orders, which will also limit the upside room of China's steel prices, steel mill profits are expected to remain at low marginal levels in H2 2026. China Hot-Rolled Coil Annual Supply-Demand Balance （ The line chart represents China's HRC price, and the bar chart represents the HRC balance. ）