[Premiums in Tianjin Rebound]: Spot premiums in Tianjin rose this week, up 20 yuan/mt WoW. As of Friday, China’s common brands quoted discounts of around 50-120 yuan/mt against the 2608 contract, while high-end brands quoted premiums of around 10-30 yuan/mt against the 2608 contract. The Tianjin market quoted a discount of around 90 yuan/mt against the Shanghai market, with the Shanghai-Tianjin price spread widening.

According to customs statistics, China witnessed a notable divergent pattern of rising exports and falling imports for die-casting zinc alloy in the first half of 2026. Exports registered exceptional strength, while imports continued to shrink.

This week, Shanghai spot copper premiums moved higher before pulling back. At the start of the week, Shanghai social inventory was at low levels, available cargoes were tight, and coupled with the inter-month backwardation structure support, low-priced cargoes were hard to find. The premium center continued to rise, refreshing the year-to-date high. After mid-week, as SHFE copper prices rose further, both copper prices and premiums remained high, curbing downstream purchases. Some processing enterprises, affected by accumulated finished product inventories, saw plans for production cuts or phased shutdowns. Weakening end-use consumption gradually transmitted to the spot market. Meanwhile, some suppliers actively lowered prices to offload cargoes. East China inventory stopped declining and rebounded, and spot premiums pulled back under pressure. SMM data showed that on July 23, Shanghai social inventory stood at 68,300 mt, up 2,200 mt from this Monday; Jiangsu inventory stood at 22,000 mt, up 2,400 mt from this Monday, marking the first slight inventory buildup in more than three weeks. Looking ahead to next week, Shanghai spot copper is expected to maintain its premium structure, but the center may remain under pressure. Supply side, current absolute inventory levels remain low, and available cargoes have not yet fully loosened, but east China inventory stopped declining and rebounded, and the support from low inventory for premiums is marginally weakening. In addition, SMM learned that some cargoes from LME warehouses have already been shipped to China, which are expected to arrive gradually. If arrivals increase, this may provide marginal relief to the current tight spot market. Demand side, copper prices and spot premiums are both at highs, downstream purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and the willingness to chase higher prices is insufficient. Overall, Shanghai spot copper against the SHFE 2608 contract is expected to remain at a premium next week. However, under the influence of inventory rebound, supplementary imports, and weak downstream consumption, the premium center may consolidate and pull back. Further attention should be paid to suppliers’ willingness to hold prices firm and changes in actual arrivals.

SMM, July 23 – Today, the market suggested that the online price for secondary refined lead was raised by 75-100 yuan/mt. Some upstream suppliers quoted 15,800 yuan/mt, remaining firm. Spot orders followed market trends, with spot cargoes traded at an ex-factory discount of 30-50 yuan/mt. Downstream consumption remained persistently weak, with resistance to high-priced cargoes, low purchase willingness, and no restocking plans for now. The market mostly adopted a wait-and-see approach, with some enterprises planning to postpone purchases. Market sentiment diverged between buying and selling, with price increases lacking demand support, and spot deals remaining sluggish. Today, the SMM average price of secondary refined lead was reported at 15,700 yuan/mt, a premium of 25 yuan/mt over the SMM #1 lead average price. Supplier shipment sentiment was 0.81, and today's secondary refined lead purchase sentiment was 1.41 (historical data can be accessed by logging into the database).

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,883.5/mt, rose to $13,888/mt at the start of the session, then drifted lower all the way, dipped to $13,800/mt near the close, and finally settled at $13,806.5/mt, down 0.17%. Trading volume reached 19,200 lots, and open interest stood at 246,000 lots, an increase of 1,752 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting an increase in bear positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 106,000 yuan/mt, touched a high of 106,190 yuan/mt at the start of the session, then saw its price center shift lower to touch 105,810 yuan/mt. After wild swings, it finally closed at 105,940 yuan/mt, down 0.16%. Trading volume reached 26,600 lots, and open interest stood at 224,000 lots, a decrease of 3,512 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting a reduction in bull positions.

Entering late July, China's tungsten market has overall moved into a phase of stage-based consolidation and repair. Following a sustained deep pullback in tungsten prices, low-priced goods in the market have become hard to find, as upstream mines and supplier traders have been hoarding, holding back from selling, and showing a strong willingness to hold prices firm, while the center of spot order transactions has steadily moved higher. Coupled with the boost to market sentiment from long-term contract purchase quotations by leading tungsten enterprises, transaction activity at the mine and APT ends has recently warmed up. However, constrained by the traditional consumption off-season in the industry, downstream end-use demand has yet to see a marked recovery, leaving the overall market in a structurally split pattern, with upstream raw material prices rebounding as suppliers hold prices firm, while downstream demand remains relatively weak. A Tungsten Enterprise Lowers Long-Term Contract Quotations for the Second Half of July A tungsten enterprise has lowered its long-term contract quotations for the second half of July, as detailed below: According to the long-term contract purchase quotations of a tungsten enterprise in Chongyi for the second half of July, the details are as follows: 1. 55% wolframite concentrates: 411,000 yuan/standard tonne, down by 37,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous quotation; 2. 55% scheelite concentrates: 410,000 yuan/standard tonne, down by 37,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous quotation; 3. APT (national standard grade 0): 605,000 yuan/mt, down by 55,000 yuan/mt from the previous quotation. Tungsten Prices Bid Farewell to Declines, Notch Two Consecutive Gains Looking back at the trend in this cycle, after the average price of wolframite concentrates rebounded to the previous high of 527,500 yuan/standard tonne in mid-to-early June, the trend continued to weaken. The core drag factor was the persistently sluggish downstream end-use demand, compounded by the ongoing digestion cycle of raw material inventories after earlier concentrated stockpiling by enterprises, which significantly weakened market price support. Starting from June 17, tungsten prices embarked on an overall weak downward path. Compared to the average price of 527,500 yuan/standard tonne on June 16, the average price of 402,500 yuan/standard tonne on July 17 marked a decline of 125,000 yuan/standard tonne over a period of just over one month, a drop of 23.7%. After the rapid pullback in tungsten prices, stage-based bottom support gradually emerged in the tungsten market. The tightening of upstream goods and rising sentiment of holding back from selling and holding prices firm pushed tungsten prices to stop falling and stabilize, then ushered in a two-consecutive-day rebound. According to SMM quotations, the price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) on July 21 was 410,000~415,000 yuan/standard tonne, with an average price of 412,500 yuan/standard tonne, up 1.23% from the previous trading day. Currently, low-priced goods on the market are quite scarce, and suppliers have generally ceased offloading at low prices. Coupled with the fact that long-term contract purchase prices from leading tungsten enterprises are higher than mainstream spot transaction prices, this has effectively boosted market confidence, driving spot transaction prices to gradually converge with long-term contract prices. Market Outlook Short term, supported by tightening raw material supply and strong sentiment among suppliers to hold prices firm, the tungsten market will mainly see a slight rebound and consolidation at lows in late July, and the market does not yet have the conditions for a significant reversal. A substantial recovery in the market still hinges on the traditional downstream consumption peak season from August to September, driven by end-user order recovery and the release of concentrated restocking demand to push prices higher. Currently, the industry chain has relatively consistent expectations for the seasonal recovery, and some enterprises may gradually begin advance stockpiling at low prices, which is expected to bring marginal improvement to the tungsten market. At present, the tungsten market is at a critical period of stopping the decline and consolidating at lows, with market recovery focused on the upstream raw material side. The downstream tungsten powder and cemented carbide sectors remain trapped in the traditional consumption off-season, with stable end-user operating rates and scarce new orders. Enterprises generally adopt a just-in-time essential restocking strategy, with no large-scale stockpiling activity, unable to support a significant rise in raw material prices. However, the industry chain has formed a broad consensus on the market recovery after August, and advance stockpiling at low prices in the market is gradually increasing, which is expected to drive the industry chain’s marginal improvement earlier. Markets outside China are affected by the summer holiday, with sluggish trading and high prices but no actual transactions, as prices continue to consolidate at high levels, with very low risk of a sharp decline. The divergent pattern between domestic and overseas markets is expected to persist. Going forward, close attention will be paid to four key variables: first, the pace of supply release from domestic mines and changes in suppliers’ holding firm sentiment; second, the pace of downstream cemented carbide end-user operating rate recovery and the strength of concentrated restocking; third, the market guidance role of APT long-term contract prices; fourth, the circulation volume of recycled tungsten scrap and the procurement release of downstream recycled raw materials. Recommended reading: