SMM Jul 11 news: Metals market: Overnight, base metals on the overseas and China markets showed mixed performance. LME aluminum led the losses with a 2.07% decline, while SHFE nickel led the gains with a 0.78% increase. The % changes of other metals were all within 1%. The alumina main contract fell 0.4%, and the cast aluminum main contract fell 0.78%. Overnight, ferrous metals all fell except for stainless steel and iron ore. Stainless steel edged up 0.03%, iron ore rose 0.27%, and both hot-rolled coil and rebar edged down. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 1.03%, and coke fell 1.15%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.29%, with a weekly gain of 0.08%. COMEX silver fell 0.74%, with a weekly decline of 1.25%. In China, SHFE gold fell 0.56%, with a weekly decline of 0.83%. SHFE silver fell 0.58%, with a weekly decline of 2.63%. HSBC lowered its average gold price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing expectations for a hawkish shift in the US Fed's monetary policy and persistent pressure from a stronger US dollar. The bank cut its 2026 average price forecast to $4,560/oz from $4,864, and its 2027 forecast to $4,925 from $5,000. HSBC expects gold prices to fluctuate in a $3,800-$4,700 range for the rest of 2026 and settle near $4,750 at year-end. (Wall Street CN) Overnight closing prices as of 7:17 AM Jul 11: Macro Front China: [State Council Executive Meeting: Boost Scaled Development of Emerging Pillar Industries Along Entire Chain, Strengthen Basic Research and Key Software/Hardware R&D] According to CCTV, Premier Li Qiang presided over a State Council Executive Meeting to discuss work on cultivating emerging pillar industries. The meeting noted the need to boost the scaled development of emerging pillar industries along the entire chain, strengthen basic research and key software/hardware development, and accelerate technology iteration and ecosystem improvement. It also called for optimized regulatory models and guidance for local authorities to pursue differentiated development based on local conditions. (Jin10 Data App) [Ministry of Commerce, General Administration of Customs: Impose Temporary Export Prohibition on Helium] The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued an announcement stating that, in accordance with the Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China, they have decided to impose temporary export prohibition management on helium (Customs Commodity Code: 2804290010). This announcement took effect on the date of its issue, and subsequent adjustments will be announced separately. (Jin10 Data App) [National Electricity Load Hits Record High of 1.518 Billion kW] This year, continuous new-quality development of the national economy and steady improvement in end-user electrification levels, coupled with recent high-temperature weather across many parts of the country, have seen electricity loads climb rapidly. July 10, China’s nationwide electricity load hit a record high for the first time this year, reaching a peak of 1.518 billion kW, an increase of 10 million kW over the previous record. Since the start of summer, the power grid in south China, along with multiple provincial-level grids including Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Ningxia, Gansu, Fujian, and Shaanxi, has collectively set new load records over 20 times. The repeated record highs in electricity demand this year have been jointly boosted by three main factors. First, industrial electricity consumption grew steadily. High-tech manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing flourished, while electricity use by emerging industries such as NEVs, energy storage, and computing equipment continued to expand. Second, electricity consumption in the service sector grew relatively quickly. Since the beginning of this year, electricity consumption growth rates for charging and battery swapping services and internet data services both exceeded 40%. Third, high temperatures drove up electricity loads. As living standards continue to improve, the proportion of air-conditioning cooling load nationwide approached 30%, exceeding 40% in some provinces. (National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)) [National Energy Administration: Non-fossil energy consumption share to increase by an average of about 1 ppt annually by 2028] The National Energy Administration (NEA) issued the *Energy Sector Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan (2026–2028)*. The plan proposes that by 2028, the share of non-fossil energy consumption should increase by an average of about 1 percentage point annually; the coal consumption rate of coal-fired power units should be reasonably controlled, with the proportion of coal power capacity meeting current benchmark energy efficiency standards striving to increase by 15 percentage points; a batch of zero-carbon and low-carbon coal mining areas and oil zones should be established; support should be given to building a batch of zero-carbon industrial parks, achieving significant progress in energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and continuously improving the level of green energy use. The plan also proposes vigorously promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction in thermal power. It will steadily and orderly shut down a batch of 300,000 kW class and below coal-fired power units that meet the conditions, and encourage the construction of replacement units that meet next-generation coal power standards ; promote the implementation of a batch of super (ultra) critical cross-generation upgrade retrofits for 600,000 kW class coal-fired power units. Support the implementation of zero-carbon and low-carbon fuel co-firing and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) retrofits for units that meet the conditions, with carbon emission levels per kWh after retrofitting expected to be reduced by about 10%. Implement a batch of coal power, gas power, and new energy integration projects, supporting coal power and new energy integration to achieve carbon reduction effects through methods such as coupling thermal storage for peak shaving and peak load supply, and integrated collection and transmission. (Jin10 Data APP) US Dollar Side: Overnight, the US dollar index edged up 0.03% to 100.96, gaining 0.05% for the week. The US Fed’s semi-annual report showed that overall US economic activity maintained steady expansion in 2026, mainly driven by high-tech investment and government spending. Factory output grew strongly due to AI-related data center investment, with production capacity continuing to improve. However, the housing market stalled, and external economic growth was sluggish, weighed down by the Middle East conflict and tariffs. The labour market was generally stable, with both wages and productivity growing, but slowing immigration led to a decline in labour supply, and small businesses and households still faced relatively tight credit conditions. Inflation remained elevated and rose further in the spring, while asset prices were above historical norms. The financial system was sound overall, bank reserves were ample, and the private credit market operated normally despite some redemption pressures. Long-term inflation expectations were basically anchored near the 2% target, though uncertainty from the Iran conflict remained a major risk. (Jin10 Data APP) The report noted that the US Fed's preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index remained about double the 2% target as of May this year. This is also the first monetary policy report released since the new Fed Chairman Warsh took office. Warsh will appear before House and Senate committees next Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, for his semi-annual routine testimony review on monetary policy. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 33.7%. For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 31.0%, a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 51.1%, and a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 18.0%. (Jin10 Data APP) Other Currencies: Reuters, citing three sources familiar with the Bank of Japan's thinking, reported that the BOJ plans to keep interest rates unchanged in July but will maintain its policy guidance, committing to continue the process of rate hikes. One source said, "Downside risks to the economy have diminished somewhat as oil prices fall. But elevated costs from past imports will continue to put upward pressure on prices." Two other sources voiced similar views. They also said the BOJ may revise up its economic growth forecast for fiscal 2026 in its July quarterly report and continue to watch for inflation overshoot risks, as cost increases from yen weakness and strong AI demand partially offset some of the impact from falling oil prices. (Jin10 Data APP) ING economists Marieke Blom and Amrita Naik Nimbalkar said in a report that if the Eurozone's savings rate were to fall to pre-pandemic levels, it could unleash demand for goods and services worth about 1% of GDP. In Q1 this year, household savings accounted for 14.3% of disposable income, higher than the pre-pandemic five-year average of 12.5%. In the US, the savings rate in the final quarter of 2025 was 10.2%, suggesting a similar level could boost Eurozone GDP by nearly 2%. Consumption is expected to remain weak, as higher mortgage rates, slowing credit growth, and precautionary savings weigh on spending. However, the shift from bank deposits to investments could lay the groundwork for stronger spending and domestic demand in the coming years, they said. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro Front: Next week in China, data releases will include China's June trade balance in dollar terms, trade balance in yuan terms, June import and export YoY rates, Q2 GDP YoY rate, June total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, June industrial value added of enterprises above designated size YoY, June total electricity consumption YoY, and June total electricity consumption. In the US, data due includes the US June unadjusted CPI YoY, seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, unadjusted core CPI YoY, June PPI YoY, June PPI MoM, July New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index, initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, June retail sales MoM, July Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, June NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, weekly change in ADP employment figures for the week ending June 27, July NAHB Housing Market Index, May business inventories MoM, June pending home sales index MoM, June annualized housing starts, June total building permits, June import price index MoM, June industrial production MoM, preliminary July one-year inflation expectations, and preliminary July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. For the Eurozone, releases include May industrial production MoM, May seasonally adjusted trade balance, May seasonally adjusted current account, final June CPI YoY, and final June CPI MoM. For the UK, data includes the May three-month GDP MoM rate, May manufacturing output MoM, May seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, and May industrial production MoM. Canada's May wholesale sales MoM and the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision on July 15 will also be released. Furthermore, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on H1 2026 import and export situation; the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly residential sales price report for 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on national economic performance; the NEA will release total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments will commence. Fed Governor Waller will speak; Fed Chairman Warsh will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at the hearing on the "US Fed's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report"; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a fireside chat; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will speak; Fed Chairman Warsh will testify before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee at the hearing on the "US Fed's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report". On July 16, the US Fed will release its Beige Book on economic conditions; 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak; 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan will speak; Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson will speak on the economy and monetary policy. Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak; the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, with Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers holding a monetary policy press conference. Crude Oil Side: Overnight, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic fell, with US crude down 0.79% and Brent crude down 1.42%. On a weekly basis, US crude rose 4.11% and Brent rose 4.3%, together snapping a four-week losing streak. The market is currently still pinning hopes on when navigation through the Strait of Hormuz can resume. Notably, after the escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran this week, the weekly crude oil price shook off the previous four-week losing streak, rising more than 4% for the week again. According to CCTV News, on Friday, July 10, local time, US President Trump posted on his social media platform "Truth Social" that Iran wants to continue "negotiations" with the US, and the US has agreed to continue negotiations. Trump also stated that the US has made it clear to Iran that the ceasefire is over. Subsequently, Xinhua News Agency, citing US media reports, said that a new round of US-Iran negotiations might be held in Switzerland next week. However, according to Iranian media Fars News, sources close to the Iranian negotiating team said claims that a new round of talks between Iran and the US would be held next week were untrue. According to CCTV, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said on Friday that Iran has never requested negotiations with the US, but agreed to a visit by mediators to Iran. (Wallstreetcn) A head office reporter learned from Iranian sources that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi will lead a diplomatic delegation to visit Oman on the 11th. During the visit, the two sides plan to engage in dialogue and exchange views on bilateral relations and the regional situation, particularly the current state of the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV) Data released by international market service agency Kepler on the 10th showed that on July 9, the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz area dropped to 22 from 30 the previous day, marking two consecutive days of declining traffic in the strait. Kepler said this data includes both commercial and non-commercial vessels, with commercial vessel traffic slightly higher than non-commercial. "The renewed escalation of the military confrontation between the US and Iran has weakened market confidence that diplomatic efforts can bring stability to the situation in the near term." (Xinhua News Agency) Barclays: Risks around our Brent crude oil price forecasts of $96 per barrel for 2026 and $85 for 2027 are fairly balanced. This week, OPEC will release its monthly oil market report (specific release time to be determined, generally published around 18:00-21:00 Beijing time).

H1 2026 silver saw a sharp spike to 30,900 yuan/kg in January, then plunged 55% to 13,816 yuan/kg by June, driven by squeezed spot liquidity and Fed policy reversal from easing to hawkish. Supply grew steadily; PV silver demand fell 21% YoY. H2 outlook: wait for inflation signals and Fed pivot, silver likely remains under pressure.

In H1 2026, silver experienced an extreme market trend marked by a sharp-peaked inverted-V and stepwise decline, driven by the interplay of two main themes: a spot silver squeeze anomaly and a shift in US Fed monetary policy. After hitting an all-time high of 30,900 yuan/kg in January, silver prices pulled back trend-wise to 13,816 yuan/kg in June, as interest rate cut expectations reversed and hawkish signals strengthened, representing a 55% pullback from the peak. On the supply side, silver ingot production rose 6.9% YoY, and imports surged before returning to normal. On the demand side, PV silver demand fell 21% YoY, with industrial demand taking over from investment as the main driver. In H2, attention will focus on the inflation turning point and marginal changes in the US Fed's policy; silver prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note.

[SMM Analysis: “Tight Resource Balance” Meets “Computing Power Revaluation”—2026 H1 Tin Price Deep Review and H2 Outlook] In 2026 H1, tin prices exhibited a wide-ranging tug-of-war pattern of “reaching record highs—pulling back to consolidate—rallying again—consolidating at highs.” The most-traded LME tin contract surged from about $42,000/mt at the beginning of the year to a record high of $59,000/mt, pulled back to $40,500 in March, rallied again to around $58,000 from April to May, and fell below $50,000 at end-June; the most-traded SHFE tin contract surged from 330,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of the year to a record high of 470,000 yuan/mt, dipped to 322,600 yuan/mt in March, touched 451,000 yuan/mt again in early June, and pulled back below 400,000 yuan/mt at month-end.

On the macro front , this week the market revolved around the US-Iran situation and US Fed policy expectations. At the start of the week, the US-Iran conflict escalated again, with rising crude oil driving inflation concerns higher. Coupled with the hawkish Fed meeting minutes, the US dollar and US bond yields strengthened, putting copper prices under pressure. Towards the end of the week, as oil prices pulled back and the possibility of progress in US-Iran talks remained, market sentiment partially recovered, and a weaker US dollar drove a rebound in copper prices. Overall, geopolitical tensions and expectations for Fed interest rate hikes repeatedly disrupted the market, with copper prices showing a pattern of first falling then rebounding, consolidating at highs. Fundamentals side , this week spot supply in China remained tight, arrivals of imported and domestic material were limited, and combined with the impact of weather and transportation, downstream users stockpiled in advance, leading to a significant decline in social inventory. As of July 9, SMM copper inventories in mainstream China regions fell by 34,900 mt WoW to 165,000 mt, while spot premiums and the price spread between futures contracts strengthened simultaneously. On the demand side, downstream purchases increased when copper prices pulled back, but trading weakened again after prices rebounded; overall, it remained dominated by restocking for immediate needs. Looking ahead to next week , on the macro front, the focus will be on US CPI, PPI, and retail sales data. If inflation remains strong, expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes heating up could weigh on copper prices; the US-Iran situation and transit through the Strait of Hormuz may still bring fluctuations. Fundamentals side, low inventories and tight supply will provide support for prices, but high copper prices will constrain demand improvement. Copper prices are expected to continue moving sideways at highs next week, with the center tilting slightly upward, while attention should be paid to import arrivals and inventory changes after delivery.

Nickel prices continued to consolidate at lows this week. Early week, boosted by weaker-than-expected US June non-farm payrolls data and a weaker US dollar, SHFE nickel once surged to around 128,000 yuan/mt. Mid-week, the US dollar index rebounded, weighing on nickel prices and causing a pullback. Late week, driven by a marginal recovery in macro sentiment, SHFE and LME nickel prices rebounded in tandem. Over the whole week, the nickel price center edged up slightly WoW but failed to achieve an effective breakout. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 127,770 yuan/mt, up 500 yuan/mt WoW. The Jinchuan nickel premium remained stable at 2,300 yuan/mt this week, while discounts for mainstream electrodeposited nickel were in the range of -400 to 400 yuan/mt. Spot trading was relatively active as prices continued to consolidate at low levels, with strong downstream sentiment for point-price purchases. On the macro front, US June non-farm payrolls data significantly missed expectations, which cooled market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes and weakened the US dollar. Subsequently, the market entered a wait-and-see period ahead of the Fed's July FOMC meeting, with limited willingness for capital participation, preventing nickel prices from achieving an effective breakout. Geopolitically, US-Iran tensions escalated again this week. US officials stated that Iran recently fired on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the US Treasury revoked exemptions for Iranian oil sales, and the US military launched strong strikes against Iran. Navigation risks in Hormuz increased again, and Iran was reported to have shipped out over 10 million barrels of crude oil within 24 hours. Although Trump stated he did not believe war would break out again, the conflict continued to spill over. On the inventory front, Shanghai bonded zone inventory stood at around 1,700 mt this week, destocking 1,000 mt WoW. Social inventory in China was about 126,000 mt, destocking roughly 4,000 mt WoW. Given the sustained drop in nickel prices recently, a sentiment-driven repair rebound is expected next week. However, market expectations for quota replenishment in H2 continue to brew, limiting upside room. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 127,000-133,000 yuan/mt next week.