[Price Review] Driven by CME’s seven consecutive emergency margin hikes on silver futures to 18%, a liquidity squeeze and exchange-mandated cooling measures together steered the overheated silver price back to earth. This week the silver market moved sideways after wild swings. On the SHFE side, the exchange released on Wednesday the “Automatic Conversion Standard for Hedging Position Quotas”; although the TD price on the SGE did not narrow versus the SHFE silver 2602 contract, the backwardation structure of the SHFE calendar spread kept converging and the risk of a speculative short squeeze declined. This week the SGE deferred-fee direction again stayed “short pays long”, and traders holding longs still found it hard to pick up physical metal through SGE delivery. As for the gold/silver ratio, silver’s plunge far outpaced gold’s, sending the ratio from the prior 47× low to near the 70 handle, a two-and-a-half-month high, showing silver’s volatility during deleveraging was markedly above gold’s. By 12 February, as silver rebounded, the ratio pulled back to roughly 60×; with short-term speculative money out, the ratio is expected to consolidate in a range. [Key Data] Bullish: US Dec retail sales m/m 0%, below both prior and expectations Bearish: US Jan unemployment 4.3%, below prior and expectations US Jan seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls 130,000, above prior and expectations US week to 6 Feb EIA crude inventory: 8.53 million barrels, above prior and expectations Data and macro headlines to watch next week include: This Friday the US will release the Jan non-farm payrolls and unemployment, but note the BLS has warned the report could be delayed due to the partial government shutdown. Several Fed officials will speak, including Atlanta Fed President Bostic on the economic outlook. [Price Forecast] Domestic markets entered a holiday lull this week. Overseas liquidity over the holiday left short-term speculative money cautious about re-entering silver, awaiting either the full deflation of price froth or the removal of margin-hike risk controls. Post-holiday silver is expected to search for a new equilibrium after the wild swings. A possibly soft US data set this week and lingering worries over Fed independence have weakened the US dollar index, briefly lifting precious metals. Although supply-demand fundamentals still lend medium- and long-term support, sentiment-driven spikes and the ever-present threat of rapid pullbacks keep silver in a high-risk, high-volatility environment. Overall, post-holiday silver is likely to hover at highs; stay alert to liquidity risk amid elevated volatility. 》Check SMM precious-metals spot quotes

[Price Review] This week, the silver market experienced historic and extreme volatility. The LBMA silver price first recorded its largest single-day drop in history on January 30, then plunged over 15% during trading on February 2, breaking below the $72/oz level, rebounded slightly, and weakened again. This round of volatility was triggered by hawkish policy concerns following the news of "Wash being nominated as the next Fed Chairman," leading to a price collapse as speculative bulls rushed to exit, creating a scenario of longs squeezing longs. In the SHFE silver market, the previously rare backwardation structure narrowed this week as the premium of the Shanghai market over LBMA widened, and imported silver ingots and crude silver raw materials slowly flowed into the market. However, spot market availability remained tight. The direction of the deferred fee on the gold exchange has consistently been short paying long since December 25, 2025, and the total physical delivery volume remained low. Regarding the gold/silver ratio, it widened significantly during the silver crash, approaching 60 times, and as of February 4, the LBMA gold/silver ratio rebounded slightly to 55 times, significantly deviating from previous lows. Silver exhibited much higher volatility than gold during the deleveraging process. [Price Forecast] Given the current high-risk environment of extreme volatility in precious metals, speculative funds may continue to enter the market next week. After the violent price swings, silver prices will seek a new equilibrium as the market digests US Fed policy expectations and the repricing of physical and paper silver. From a fund flow perspective, after taking profits, long funds turned to short positions. Some market traders mentioned the possibility of cash settlement being initiated if COMEX physical delivery defaults occur. The pattern of declining inventory and tight supply has not fundamentally reversed. Domestically, physical prices showed unusual premiums compared to both the gold exchange and SHFE prices, with suppliers noticeably reluctant to sell. Spot premiums are expected to see limited declines before the Chinese New Year holiday. As downstream industries gradually shut down for the holiday and just-in-time procurement concludes, silver price premiums may gradually pull back. Subsequent attention should remain on geopolitical disturbances and guidance from US Fed officials' speeches regarding real interest rate expectations. [Key Data] Bullish: US January ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.6, higher than the previous value and expectations. US January ADP Employment Change came in at 22,000, lower than the previous value and expectations. US EIA Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending January 30 came in at -3.455 million barrels, lower than the previous value and expectations. Bearish: Eurozone January Services PMI Final came in at 51.6, lower than the previous value and expectations. Key data and macro news releases to watch next week include: This Friday, the US will release the January Nonfarm Payrolls report and unemployment rate data, but special note is required as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics has warned that partial government shutdown may cause delays in this data release. Several US Fed officials are scheduled to speak intensively, including Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who will speak on the economic outlook.

[SMM Hot Topic: From "Scale" to "Quality" – The Shift and Restructuring of Traditional Construction Steel Demand] From 2026 to 2030, the domestic demographic dividend will gradually shrink, and the era of rapid growth in the real estate industry will come to an end, with the industry's development logic shifting from scale expansion to quality improvement.

(Kitco News) - Gold and silver continue to struggle as investors come to grips with the broad market collapse on Friday. Although prices have room to fall further, commodity analysts at Société Générale still see asymmetric upside risk through the year.

When the Nasdaq fell 10% and 20% from its highs, Trump, who maintained a stance of aggressive tariff policies, seemed to "not even blink." However, after US bonds faced intense selling this week, Trump "lightning-fast" suspended the "reciprocal tariffs" on most countries before the sun set on April 9, the "Reciprocal Tariff Day"... This inevitably made many industry insiders curious: Was the US government's tariff suspension largely to "save US bonds"? It is reported that US President Trump said on social media on the 9th local time, "Given that more than 75 countries have called US representative agencies to negotiate solutions on issues related to trade, trade barriers, tariffs, currency manipulation, and non-monetary tariffs, I have approved a 90-day suspension for these countries, which applies to reciprocal tariffs. During this period, general tariffs will be reduced to 10%, and the suspension takes effect immediately." After Trump's major shift in tariff policy, the S&P 500 index recorded its largest gain since 2008 overnight, and the Nasdaq surged more than 12% in a single day. At the same time, US bond prices generally halted their decline during the Asian session on Wednesday. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury narrowed its gain to 12.6 basis points, closing at 4.386%. Earlier, it had reached 4.515%, the highest since February 20. The yield on the 30-year US Treasury also narrowed its gain to 6.1 basis points, closing at 4.776%, after hitting a high of 5.023% during the day, the highest since November 2023. As previously reported by Caixin, the epic sell-off in the US bond market reached an extremely dangerous moment during the Asian session on Wednesday. The yield on the 30-year US Treasury rose 56 basis points in less than three trading sessions—the last time yields rose this much in three days was on January 7, 1982. Nomura interest rate trader Ryan Plantz even warned in an internal memo, "In the Treasury space, swap spreads and basis trades are melting. The US Treasury market is experiencing unprecedented large-scale unwinding, and a liquidity vacuum has formed." Famous economist Peter Schiff even claimed that if the US Fed did not take emergency "rate cuts + QE" on Wednesday, a stock market crash similar to the "Black Monday" of 1987 could recur. However, in the end, although people did not get the "Powell put" on Wednesday, they unexpectedly received a "Trump put"—the "King of Understanding" finally made concessions on reciprocal tariffs... Trump and Besant faced a "soul-searching question" So, did the US government really suspend tariffs to "save US bonds"? Interestingly, both Trump and US Treasury Secretary Besant were asked about this topic last night... On Trump's side, when a reporter asked, "Did the bond market convince you to make the (tariff) reversal?" Trump said, "The bond market is very tricky, I've been watching it. But if you look at it now, it's beautiful. I felt a bit sick last night. You have to be flexible to get things done." Clearly, Trump seemed to tacitly acknowledge that US bond volatility had become one of the factors in his decision-making changes. However, US Treasury Secretary Besant denied any connection between US bond volatility and the tariff suspension last night. Besant was also asked at the White House—did the shocking rise in US bond yields, which raised concerns about a liquidity crisis and questions about whether US Treasuries were losing their safe-haven status, prompt Trump to make some concessions? Besant pointed out, "This was driven by the president's strategy. He and I had a long talk on Sunday, this has always been his strategy." Earlier in the day, Besant also downplayed the potential impact of US bond turmoil. He said that the current turmoil in the US bond market is not systemic and expects the bond market to stabilize. "I don't think this is a systemic issue, I think the deleveraging happening in the bond market is a disturbing but normal process." What does Wall Street think? It is worth noting that some Wall Street figures do not agree with Besant's seemingly evasive statements. Allianz Group's chief economic advisor Mohamed El-Erian said on Wednesday, "Just an hour ago, people were debating what could convince the US government to choose some form of tariff suspension. Was it Congress, the president's advisors, business leaders, the judiciary, the market, or something else?" "We got the answer today: it was the government bond market—especially how close it came to the line between extreme price volatility and market failure." Former JPMorgan chief global strategist Marko Kolanovic also said, "The bond market collapse likely put the White House in a difficult position." "After the bond market collapsed, their entire narrative fell apart, their first excuse was, 'Well, this (tariff suspension) works for the bond market,' it was probably the bond market that forced them to do it." KLARITY FX managing director Amarjit Sahota pointed out, "Why today? I think almost everyone was discussing this morning what was going on with the US 10-year Treasury yield?" "Why did yields rise sharply? People were selling bonds, who exactly was selling these bonds? There was speculation about hedge fund sellers and foreign investors." "This might have been enough to scare the government into providing a tariff suspension." In addition, F/M Investment Company's chief investment officer Alex Morris also believes that it was the bond market that prompted the president to take action—it had already started signaling that the situation would continue to deteriorate. Market volatility was definitely a heavy blow... Stock trading is influenced by tweets, market sentiment, and concerns about foolish policies being introduced. But currently, liquidity is still sufficient, and the market structure remains sound. In fact, since officially taking office at the beginning of this year, the US Treasury under Besant's leadership has always placed far more importance on US bond volatility than on US stocks. As early as early February, when his nomination was just approved, Besant said that the Trump administration was more focused on the 10-year US Treasury yield than the US Fed's short-term benchmark rate in reducing borrowing costs. Whether it is the policy measures already implemented by the Trump administration, or many plans still under discussion or in the works, such as tariffs, DOGE, Bitcoin reserves, checking the treasury, immigration gold cards, the US sovereign wealth fund, the Mar-a-Lago agreement, etc., the ultimate goal seems to revolve around two words: "debt reduction"!

As Trump's reciprocal tariff plan takes effect, the yield on US Treasury bonds continues to soar, replacing the sharp decline in US stocks as the most discussed topic on Wall Street. On Wednesday Eastern Time, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond rose by 17 basis points to 4.43% during the day, and overnight it once touched 4.511%, marking the first time it has surpassed 4.50% since late February. After the Trump administration unilaterally increased the additional tariffs on Chinese exports to the US from 34% to 84%, the Chinese government quickly took firm countermeasures, also raising the additional tariff rate on all US-origin imported goods from 34% to 84%. This has further intensified concerns about a global trade war. Typically, stock market sell-offs and heightened fears of an economic recession would lead investors to rush to buy bonds for safety, thereby pushing down US Treasury yields, but this time it did not happen. Henry Allen, Vice President and Macro Strategist at Deutsche Bank, stated in a report: "Perhaps more concerning is that the US Treasury market is also experiencing an incredible sell-off, further evidence that they are losing their traditional safe-haven status." Traders are searching for multiple theories to explain this trend, including hedge funds being forced to sell due to margin calls, and more unsettling speculation about foreign investors selling US Treasuries. In response, US Treasury Secretary Besant made an urgent statement on Wednesday, attempting to downplay concerns about the US Treasury sell-off. He said the current situation is not systemic and expects the bond market to stabilize. Besant stated in an interview: "The US Treasury market is currently experiencing a deleveraging turmoil." Besant said he has often witnessed this situation during his hedge fund career. "In the fixed-income market, some very large leveraged players are suffering losses and have to deleverage." He added: "I don't think this is a systemic issue, I think the ongoing deleveraging in the bond market is a disturbing but normal process." Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, stated in a report: "However, what I am really worried about now is the movement of the entire US Treasury market, with no sign of easing in the selling pressure at the long end of the yield curve." The US Fed is scheduled to release the minutes of its March meeting on Wednesday, while the US Treasury plans to hold a $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction later that day. Prior to this, Tuesday's 3-year US Treasury auction saw weak demand. The largest holders of US Treasuries—and potential bidders in these auctions—are countries such as Japan, China, and the UK, but the US is imposing significant additional tariffs on these countries. David Zervos, Chief Market Strategist at Jefferies, said: "This is a trade war, and if countries can use their accumulated US financial assets... then they may create some problems." Rising US Treasury yields are troublesome for both the Trump administration and the US Fed. The White House could have been comforted for a while, as the chaotic initial rollout of tariffs lowered yields, but they have since started to rebound sharply. Ed Yardeni, an analyst at Yardeni Research, pointed out that Trump administration officials have been crediting themselves for the recent decline in bond yields and mortgage rates, but unfortunately, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury is rising.