SMM News on August 15: Metals market: Overnight last Friday, base metals in the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.49%; on a weekly basis, SHFE copper fell 0.31% for the week. SHFE aluminum was flat at 23,945 yuan/mt. SHFE lead fell 0.22%, SHFE zinc rose 0.41%, and SHFE tin rose 0.36%. SHFE nickel edged up 0.07%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.19%, while the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.24%. Overnight last Friday, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Stainless steel fell 0.49%, iron ore fell 0.35%, and rebar fell 0.03%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.34%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.7%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.97%. Overnight last Friday, overseas metals: LME base metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.26%; on a weekly basis, LME copper extended gains for seven consecutive weeks, up 1.07% for the week. LME aluminum rose 0.22%. LME lead rose 0.26%. LME zinc rose 0.45%. LME tin rose 0.36%. LME nickel rose 0.3%. Overnight last Friday, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.26%; COMEX gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain, up 0.73% for the week. COMEX silver fell 0.26%; COMEX silver logged a second consecutive weekly gain, up 2.09% for the week. Overnight last Friday, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.6%; SHFE gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain, up 1.68% for the week. The most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.57%; SHFE silver extended gains for four consecutive weeks, up 3.45% for the week. As of 7:17 on August 15, overnight last Friday’s closing prices: Macro front China: [Central bank: Aggregate social financing rose by 2.225 trillion yuan in the first seven months; M2 in July was up 7.7% YoY] According to preliminary statistics from the central bank, in the first seven months of 2026, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing totaled 2.225 trillion yuan, down 174 billion yuan from the same period last year. Among them, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 1.017 trillion yuan, an increase of 214 billion yuan less YoY; foreign-currency loans to the real economy (converted into RMB) increased by 169.4 billion yuan, an increase of 241.9 billion yuan more YoY; entrusted loans decreased by 81 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.1 billion yuan more YoY; trust loans decreased by 67.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 226.4 billion yuan more YoY; undiscounted bank acceptance bills decreased by 178.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 41 billion yuan less YoY; net financing of enterprise bonds was 252 billion yuan, 110 billion yuan more YoY; net financing of government bonds was 776 billion yuan, 115 billion yuan less YoY; and domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises was 406.1 billion yuan, 184.7 billion yuan more YoY. In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 10.38 trillion yuan. By sector, loans to households decreased by 827.1 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 928.1 billion yuan and medium- and long-term loans increased by 101 billion yuan; loans to enterprises and public institutions increased by 11 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 4.34 trillion yuan, medium- and long-term loans increased by 5.32 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 1.19 trillion yuan; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 394.4 billion yuan. At the end of July, the outstanding balance of broad money (M2) was 355.51 trillion yuan, up 7.7% YoY. The outstanding balance of narrow money (M1) was 115.46 trillion yuan, up 4% YoY. The outstanding balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 14.82 trillion yuan, up 11.6% YoY. In the first seven months, net cash injection totaled 725.5 billion yuan. [Shanghai: Promoting Leading Industries Such as Integrated Circuits, Civil Aviation, Smart Vehicles, and High-End Equipment to Accumulate Strength and Gain Momentum] Today (August 14), Shanghai Municipal Party Secretary Chen Jining spent an entire day conducting a survey and presiding over a symposium in the Lingang Special Area of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. Chen Jining pointed out that the Lingang Special Area should always place advanced manufacturing in a prominent position and unswervingly enhance its capacity and core competitiveness. It should seize the opportunities of digitalization, intelligence, and green development, place greater emphasis on cultivating industrial ecosystems while ensuring project implementation, focus on cultivating industry leaders and high-growth enterprises, and focus on developing industrial platforms and improving service capabilities, thereby enhancing the resilience and stickiness of industrial development and promoting leading industries such as integrated circuits, civil aviation, smart vehicles, and high-end equipment to accumulate strength and gain momentum. It should leverage the advantage of abundant manufacturing scenarios, promote the digital and intelligent transformation of industry, increase the application of industrial robots, vertical models, and intelligent agents in key links such as production and manufacturing, and equipment operation and maintenance, and drive the systematic transformation of the entire process covering industrial design, pilot-scale validation, inspection and testing, and marketing and operations. It should optimize the business environment, provide better services for enterprises, and accelerate the cultivation of world-class enterprises. It should deepen the reform of the management system of development zones, and refine and improve reform plans around key links such as functional positioning, spatial integration, professional services, and assessment and evaluation. (Shanghai Release) On the US dollar: Last Friday, the US dollar index fell 0.32% overnight, closing at 99.64. On a weekly basis: the US dollar index rose on the week, up 0.04% for the week. US July retail sales released on Friday decreased 0.6% MoM, marking the largest decline in more than a year. Coupled with mild inflation data this week, market pricing for a US Fed rate hike in September collapsed further. The US dollar index fell. Under the triple blow of mild CPI on Wednesday, zero MoM growth in PPI on Thursday, and unexpectedly weak retail sales on Friday, the probability of a September rate hike plunged from 75% at the end of July to around 25%; CME FedWatch showed that 67% of traders were betting on rates being held steady in September. The focus of market pricing has shifted from "how many more rate hikes are needed" to "whether this round of rate hikes has ended".(Wallstreetcn) The US Department of Commerce announced on Friday that retail sales in July fell 0.6% MoM, the largest decline in more than a year, while market expectations were for slight growth. Core control group sales excluding automobiles, building materials, and gas stations fell 0.4%, the worst performance since January 2025. The University of Michigan's preliminary August Consumer Sentiment Index released on the same day was only 51, well below the expected 54.5.(Wallstreetcn) US consumer confidence fell for the first time in three months as households worried about deteriorating business conditions and rising inflation. According to survey data released by the University of Michigan on Friday, the preliminary August consumer sentiment index fell to 51, below the final July reading of 55.2. The median expectation among economists was 55. Consumers expect prices to rise 4.3% over the next year, edging up MoM and markedly above the level before the Iran conflict broke out in February. They also expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 3.3% over the next 5 to 10 years. After two consecutive months of improvement, consumer confidence in both the short- and long-term economic outlook deteriorated. Since the beginning of the year, changes in consumers' expectations for the labour market have been relatively small. The survey showed that consumers were increasingly worried about inflation, while concerns about unemployment declined. This survey covered responses collected from July 28 to August 10. During this period, the US national average gasoline price hovered above $4 per gallon. Another report released on Friday showed that US retail sales in July recorded their largest decline in over a year, as consumers cut back on automobile and online store purchases.(Jin10 Data App) US Fed's Goolsbee said he supported the decision to keep interest rates unchanged in July. He pointed out that the two most recent productivity data readings were disappointing, and if productivity continues to decline, the US Fed may need to reassess market expectations for artificial intelligence (AI). Goolsbee said the latest CPI data were encouraging, but more data are needed to make a judgment; continued consumption weakness is concerning, though the weakness in retail sales is currently only a single-month performance. At the same time, US GDP and the labour market were basically stable overall.(from Wallstreetcn App) According to CME "US Fed Watch": the probabilities for the US Fed in September are no change in interest rates (67.5%) and a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike (32.5%). The probabilities for the US Fed in October are no change in interest rates (53.3%), a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike (39.8%), and a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike (6.8%).(Jin10 Data App) On the macro front: This week will see the release of China July total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, China July value added of industrial enterprises above designated size YoY, Canada July CPI MoM, US August New York Fed Manufacturing Index, US August NAHB Housing Market Index, UK ILO unemployment rate for the three months to June, UK July unemployment rate, UK July unemployment benefit claimant count, Germany August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, Eurozone August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending August 1, US July total annualized housing starts, US July total building permits, US July import price index MoM, US July industrial output MoM, US July pending home sales index MoM, UK July CPI MoM, UK July retail price index MoM, Eurozone June seasonally adjusted current account, Eurozone July final CPI YoY, Eurozone July final CPI MoM, China July SWIFT RMB share in global payments, China 1-year loan prime rate for August 20, Australia July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany July PPI MoM, Switzerland July trade balance, UK August CBI industrial orders balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15, US August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US July Conference Board Leading Indicators MoM, UK August GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Japan July core CPI YoY, UK July public sector net borrowing, UK July seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM, France August flash manufacturing PMI, Germany August flash manufacturing PMI, Eurozone August flash manufacturing PMI, UK August flash manufacturing PMI, UK August flash services PMI, Canada June retail sales MoM, US August flash S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, global flash services PMI, Eurozone August flash consumer confidence index, and other data. In addition, this week also requires attention: the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the performance of the national economy; European Central Bank President Lagarde will attend the "Global Economic Outlook" discussion at the World Economic Forum International Business Council (IBC) meeting; the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; and Hang Seng Indexes will announce the Hang Seng Index Series Review results for Q2 2026. On the crude oil front: Last Friday, futures for both crude oils rose in overnight trading, with WTI crude oil futures up 1.42% and Brent crude oil futures up 2.01%. On a weekly basis: WTI crude oil futures rose for the week, up 5.4%; Brent crude oil futures closed higher for the week, up 6.31%. International crude oil prices rose, driven by a near standstill in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Two vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz that day, and traffic came to a near standstill. The US said it could maintain a maritime blockade against Iran indefinitely, and Trump also said that the US would impose severe economic measures on Iran. Capital Economics estimates that current crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are only about 4 million to 5 million barrels per day, far below pre-conflict levels. Dated Brent maintained a spot premium structure, indicating continued tightness in physical supply. Capacity at three of the world’s four major refining centers has been impaired, and surging refined product prices are being passed directly to end consumers. (Wall Street CN) Traders said that, with the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed, Asian refiners were seeking alternative supplies for deliveries later this year, and at least four Asian refiners purchased US crude this week. Both the US and Iran claim control of the Strait of Hormuz, and vessel traffic through the strait fell below the monthly average in the latter half of this week. With no sign that shipping through the strait will resume normal flows in the short term, tightening fuel supply will push up refining margins, prompting refiners to lock in crude inventories needed for the coming months from markets outside the Gulf region. South Korea’s GS Caltex purchased 2 million barrels of Mars crude from Shell and plans to take delivery in November. Traders said the cargo was priced at a premium of about $13 to $14 per barrel over the October Dubai benchmark price. Japan’s third-largest refiner Cosmo Energy Holdings bought Mars crude from Trafigura; Japan’s largest refiner ENEOS purchased 2 million barrels of WTI crude from Trafigura at a premium of more than $10 per barrel over the October WTI price and plans to take delivery in November. (Jin10 Data App) US Energy Information Administration (EIA): US petroleum production is expected to average 13.83 million barrels per day in August, compared with 13.82 million barrels per day in July; production is expected to average 13.77 million barrels per day in September. (Jin10 Data App) It is worth noting that, due to contract rollover, the September NYMEX New York crude oil futures will complete final floor trading at 2:30 on August 21 and final electronic trading at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to exchange announcements regarding expiration and contract rollover to manage risk. In addition, some trading platforms usually set the expiration time of US crude oil contracts one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule, so please pay extra attention. Recommended Reading:

Futures: Last Friday, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,890.5/mt, drifted lower during the Asian session, and after dipping to $1,881.0/mt, consolidated in a narrow range at low levels. It then gradually rebounded during the European session, and surged late in the session to a high of $1,896.5/mt, finally closing at $1,895.5/mt, up 0.26%. Open interest increased by 3,720 lots to 183,969 lots on the day. On Friday night, the SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at 15,840 yuan/mt in the night session. After briefly touching a high of 15,855 yuan/mt early on, it quickly fell, bottoming at 15,740 yuan/mt, then consolidated and rebounded. In the latter half, it traded in the 15,820-15,840 yuan/mt range, and finally closed at 15,805 yuan/mt, down 0.22%. Night-session open interest decreased by 1,185 lots to 37,951 lots. It should be noted that the 2608 contract was in the delivery period. Prices and open interest of near-month contracts were susceptible to disruptions from delivery and contract rollover, and the subsequent trend of the 2609 contract still required close tracking of the pace of fund position shifting. Overall, after SHFE lead retreated from highs, it had yet to show clear rebound momentum. On the macro front: The situation in the Middle East continued to escalate. Iran said US forces had been expelled and were not allowed to enter the strait; Syrian sources said Yemen’s Houthi forces launched an attack on a US drone; and the Israel Defense Forces launched strikes on southern Lebanon over the weekend. Rising geopolitical tensions could lift crude oil and inflation expectations, and affect risk appetite for nonferrous metals via the US dollar and expectations for US Fed policy. US President Trump demanded a significant reduction in the scale of US–South Korea joint military exercises. Today, focus was on the impact of Middle East developments and crude oil price changes on macro sentiment. PBOC: In the first seven months, cumulative growth in aggregate financing to the real economy totaled 22.25 trillion yuan, and RMB loans increased by 10.38 trillion yuan. National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): Starting from 24:00 on August 14, China’s retail price caps for gasoline and diesel were lowered by 230 yuan/mt and 220 yuan/mt, respectively. Zhongwei Semiconductor: Net profit in 2026 H1 was 172 million yuan, up 98.48% YoY. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead reversed and pulled back, and suppliers’ willingness to sell declined somewhat, while quotations for warrant cargoes also decreased. In addition, EXW cargoes from primary lead smelters were quoted in line with the market, with mainstream producing areas quoted at parity against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, and discounted cargoes decreased somewhat. For secondary lead, smelters’ willingness to quote declined, market circulating cargoes decreased, and some smelters held back from selling at low prices; secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed. Approaching the weekend, some rigid-demand restocking increased somewhat, but overall wait-and-see sentiment remained strong, and spot market transactions saw limited improvement. Inventory: On August 14, LME lead inventory fell by 1,700 mt, or 0.41%, to 412,675 mt; according to SMM, as of August 13, SMM five-location social inventory of lead ingots stood at 75,200 mt, up 2,400 mt from August 10. Today’s Lead Price Forecast: This week marks the delivery period for the SHFE lead 2608 contract. Ahead of delivery, lead ingots saw an on-schedule inventory buildup, dragging lead prices lower. However, it is worth noting that maintenance among primary lead enterprises increased in mid-to-late August, mainly among delivery brand enterprises, which may support a rebound in lead prices. Meanwhile, consumption in the lead-acid battery market was mediocre, while just-in-time procurement demand from downstream enterprises was moderate, which can be regarded as a neutral factor. In summary, SMM expects lead prices to rebound after probing lows.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Solar Cell Prices Continue to Rise, Module Prices Slightly Raised] The current round of solar cell price gains strengthened further, and prices across all sizes continued to climb. The 183 traded range rose to 0.28-0.3 yuan/W; the mainstream 210N range moved up to 0.28-0.29 yuan/W; and the 210R transaction center climbed to 0.281-0.3 yuan/W. The previous disconnect between quoted prices and spot transaction prices eased significantly, and high-priced orders began to close in batches. Short-term cost increases, combined with recovering export orders, kept overall market sentiment strong; however, excessively rapid price increases may gradually exhaust downstream absorption capacity. Going forward, it is necessary to keep tracking end-user module profit margins, cost fluctuations, and details of policy implementation outside China, while guarding against the risk of a slight correction following excessively rapid price increases.

SMM News, August 11: Metal market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.61%, and SHFE aluminum rose 0.81%. SHFE lead rose 0.86%. SHFE zinc rose 0.47%. SHFE tin fell 0.29%, and SHFE nickel fell 0.59%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures rose 0.38%, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.78%, the most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 0.36%, the most-traded silicon metal futures rose 0.76%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.46%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 1.47%, rebar edged up, hot-rolled coil fell 0.12%, and stainless steel fell 0.82%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.47%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.45%. As for overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.48%, LME aluminum, LME lead, and LME zinc rose within 0.2%. LME tin fell 0.12%, and LME nickel fell 0.32%. Precious metals: as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 1.37%, and COMEX silver rose 1.12%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 1.88%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures continued its rally for the fifth consecutive trading day, rising 3.08%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.59%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 1.92%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping freight futures contract fell 6.11% to 1,536.5 points. As of 11:40 on August 11, midday futures market overview: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: In North China, spot #1 copper cathode prices against the front-month contract averaged a discount of 280 yuan/mt to 220 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 255 yuan/mt, narrowing by 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 108,300 yuan/mt, up 640 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro Front Domestic: [The PBOC’s reverse repo operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 46.5 billion yuan] The PBOC did not conduct any reverse repo operations today, as 46.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 46.5 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data APP) [China Index Academy: Nationwide Foreclosed Housing Transactions Up Over 40% YoY in Jan-Jul] Data from the China Index Academy showed that 245,000 foreclosed residential properties were listed for auction nationwide from January to July, up 23.1% YoY; 89,000 units were sold, up 42.7% YoY; the clearance rate was 36.2%, up 4.97 percentage points from the previous year; total transaction value reached 96.975 billion yuan, up 21.04% YoY. From January to July, the average transaction price of foreclosed residential properties was 8,081 yuan per square meter, a YoY decrease of 9.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) In the dollar segment: As of 11:40, the US dollar index fell 0.03% to 99.78. Cleveland Fed President Hammack stated that inflation has yet to return to its target level, and the US Fed may need to implement multiple rate hikes. She said a single 25-basis-point hike “would not have much impact on the economy,” but she was reluctant to predict the specific number of hikes or the terminal rate level. Hammack believes the current 3.50%–3.75% rate range has not placed significant restraint on the economy, and enterprises have not scaled back growth investments due to high rates, so “now is the time to act.” She noted that the longer the wait, the harder it will be to bring inflation back to 2%. Hammack also emphasized that the labor market currently shows no clear issues, and July employment data will not shift her focus on inflation. She argued that markets can only assist the Fed, not substitute for Fed action. Hammack dissented at the Fed’s July meeting, preferring a 25-basis-point hike over keeping rates unchanged. According to CME FedWatch, for the September meeting, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 48.8%, and a cumulative 25bp hike 51.2%. For October, the probabilities were 34.7% (no change), 50.5% (cumulative 25bp), and 14.7% (cumulative 50bp). (Jin10 Data APP) US President Trump said on Monday that he has had only one “brief” conversation with Fed Chairman Warsh since the latter took office, denying reports of frequent communications. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said last week that the two “frequently discuss economic issues,” but other sources said the calls are irregular and not frequent. Previous reports indicated that Trump has communicated with Warsh multiple times since Warsh was confirmed as Fed Chairman in May, with Trump asking about Warsh’s economic outlook and views. Trump reiterated his desire for lower interest rates but said he “100% supports” Warsh and stressed that Fed policy is set jointly by the Board of Governors. (Jin10 Data APP) In other currencies: TD Securities expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep its interest rate unchanged at 4.35%, a baseline scenario broadly in line with market consensus and OIS pricing, which shows the probability of a hike today is near zero. This means the rate decision itself carries very limited risk of surprising the AUD or rates market. A more meaningful signal may come from the Monetary Policy Statement released alongside the rate decision. TD Securities expects that, despite the trimmed mean CPI data coming in weaker than expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia will resist sharply lowering its inflation forecasts, citing elevated oil prices as a persistent upside risk to the inflation outlook. The combination of "confirming a hold" and "cautious, rather than dovish, forecast revisions" implies that the market reaction will be relatively mild. Any surprise is more likely to come from the tone of the forecast language than from the rate decision itself. (Jin10 Data APP) According to Jiji Press, citing sources familiar with the matter, after raising rates in June, the Bank of Japan may consider raising rates again at its next policy meeting on September 17-18 to address rising inflation risks. Driven by the rapid growth in AI-related demand, a significant depreciation of the yen, and a rise in crude oil prices, prices in Japan may rise further. Previously, many financial market participants had expected the BOJ to raise rates roughly every six months. However, according to the summary of opinions from the meeting released on Monday, at the BOJ's latest policy meeting held on July 30-31, some policy board members had already indicated that the pace of rate hikes should be accelerated. One member said, "The pace of policy rate hikes may exceed market expectations," while another stated that the BOJ needed to "accelerate the pace of adjusting monetary easing." (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of China's July M2 money supply annual rate (TBD), the US July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the US weekly change in ADP employment for the week ending July 25, the US July existing home sales annualized rate, and the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision for the August 11 meeting, among other data. In addition, the RBA will publish its rate decision and monetary policy statement, and RBA Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude Oil: As of 11:40, both crude oil benchmarks edged up, with WTI up 0.07% and Brent up 0.06%. The renewed uncertainty over the US-Iran negotiations supported oil prices. Trump openly criticized the war reparations demand put forward by Iran during the negotiations, rapidly cooling the market's previously optimistic expectations for a quick deal and the reopening of strategic waterways. Wall Street Insights mentioned, citing CCTV, that US President Trump posted on social media on August 10 local time, saying that he had noticed Iran was demanding compensation for losses suffered in the military conflicts of the past five months. Trump said: "I similarly demand compensation from Iran, and I have instructed my representatives to explicitly include this demand in all future negotiations."On the same day, Iran continued to release signals of strengthening its security and political system. It is worth noting that last week, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) accelerated its decline again, falling to its lowest level since 1983 and approaching the widely recognized operational floor of 250 million barrels. If the current weekly drawdown rate persists, the SPR will exhaust its buffer capacity within weeks. (Wall Street Insights) Donald Trump extended the Jones Act waiver allowing foreign vessels to transport oil and other goods within the US by 90 days, but imposed new restrictions. Due to the US-Iran conflict disrupting crude oil flows and driving up fuel costs, Trump maintained the related waiver while narrowing its scope. The new waiver will focus on energy transportation, including gasoline, jet fuel, crude oil, naphtha, liquefied natural gas, soybean oil, and fertilizers. Going forward, before deciding whether to grant a waiver for an individual voyage, the Pentagon will need to consult with the US Maritime Administration. The White House stated that the waiver helps ensure continued access to critical resources for the US military and essential industries, and increases domestic transportation of products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. However, US shipbuilders and some members of Congress believe that the waiver undermines the Jones Act's protection of the domestic shipping industry. (Jinshi Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM August 7 News: Metal Markets: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market broadly rose. SHFE copper edged up 0.1%. SHFE aluminum gained 0.38%. SHFE lead edged up 0.1%. SHFE zinc rose 1.11%, while SHFE tin fell 0.98%. SHFE nickel dropped 1.22%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract edged up 0.09%, while the most-traded foundry aluminum contract fell 0.52%. Overnight, ferrous metals all rose. Stainless steel edged up, iron ore gained 0.35%, and rebar rose 0.17%. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) increased 0.59%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract rose 1.54%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 2.48%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper shot up to an intraday high of $14,369.5/mt, a level not seen since January 29, before eventually closing with a 0.4% decline. LME aluminum gained 0.65%. LME lead fell 0.29%. LME zinc rose 0.64%. LME tin dropped 1.43%. LME nickel fell 2.45%. Overnight Precious Metals : COMEX gold fell 0.15%, and COMEX silver dropped 0.81%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures contract fell 0.01%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract declined 0.93%. Closing prices as of 7:03 AM, August 7: Macro Front Domestic (China) News: [Guangdong: Promote the Integration of Futures and Spot Markets for Key Commodities like Iron Ore, Crude Oil, and Rubber to Enhance Pricing Influence on Bulk Commodities] The "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the China (Guangdong) Pilot Free Trade Zone (Draft for Comments)" was released for public comment. It mentioned plans to expand financial opening-up in an orderly manner. International financial institutions will be encouraged to set up headquarters in the zone, promoting the development of cross-border finance, innovative finance, venture capital and investment, wealth management, futures trading, asset management, specialty finance, and offshore services. The Plan aims to accelerate the implementation of projects like the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area International Commercial Bank and the GBA Insurance Service Center. It supports expanding the scale of commodity trading and promoting the integration of futures and spot markets for key commodities like iron ore, crude oil, and rubber to enhance their pricing influence. The Plan will promote the quality improvement and upgrade of fintech regulatory pilots and expand digital yuan application scenarios. It supports pilot programs for cross-border financial innovations such as offshore finance and green finance, and will promote the expansion of pilot programs like cross-border Wealth Management Connect and digital yuan cross-border payments. Institutions within the zone will be supported in developing specialty products like cross-border supply chain finance and intellectual property-pledged financing, and market entities will be guided to develop composite financial products. Pilots for cross-border credit asset transfers and multi-currency integrated accounts will be deepened to promote wider mutual recognition and connectivity of cross-border financial products. (Guangdong Department of Commerce) [CAAM: June Auto Commodity Import and Export Value Hits $31.82 Billion, Up 35.5% YoY] According to data from the General Administration of Customs compiled by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the total import and export value of auto commodities in June 2026 was $31.82 billion, up 8.0% MoM and up 35.5% YoY. The import value was $3.39 billion, down 6.1% MoM and down 18.7% YoY; the export value was $28.43 billion, up 10.0% MoM and up 47.2% YoY. From January to June 2026, the cumulative import and export value of national auto commodities totaled $164.74 billion, up 25.5% YoY. The import value was $19.25 billion, down 11.8% YoY; the export value was $145.49 billion, up 33.0% YoY. (Jin10 Data APP) US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.26% to 99.95. Escalating geopolitical tensions weighed on both US stocks and bonds, causing them to fall. Oil prices jumped, reigniting inflation concerns ahead of the key US employment report. Market focus now turns to Friday's US employment report for new clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. Stronger-than-expected jobs data could reinforce the case for higher-for-longer interest rates, while any escalation of tensions in the Middle East could push up energy prices and intensify market fluctuations. UBS analyst Ulrike Hoffmann noted: "Short-term risks remain, especially if US data remains firm, oil prices continue to fuel inflation concerns, or the market continues pricing in a more hawkish Fed rate path." Interactive Brokers Senior Economist José Torres stated: "Wall Street reversed again from recent strong gains as the lack of clarity concerning the Strait of Hormuz led investors to question whether the robust rally early this week was justified." (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME "FedWatch" tool: The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 45%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 55%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through October is 31%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 51.9%, and a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 17.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) According to a report by the UK's Financial Times, even after a decision not to reveal too many details on rate strategy triggered a sharp sell-off in government bonds, Fed Chairman Warsh is sticking with his usual concise communication style. People close to Warsh say he acknowledges making some mistakes during his first 10 weeks at the helm of the world's most important central bank, including failing to reinforce his key message on price stability and creating confusion over whether his long-term plan to reform the Fed could influence near-term policy decisions. However, they insisted those mistakes were not enough to derail Warsh's reform plans for the Fed. People familiar with the matter also revealed that Warsh is prepared to raise interest rates at the September meeting if upcoming inflation data proves strong and market expectations for higher borrowing costs rise accordingly. The sources added that while the Fed Chairman raised the possibility of shrinking the central bank's $6.7 trillion balance sheet to tighten monetary policy, interest rates remain the primary tool for now and will be used at upcoming meetings if necessary. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro Events: Data releases today include France's Q2 ILO unemployment rate, Germany's June seasonally adjusted industrial output MoM, Germany's June seasonally adjusted trade balance, the UK's July Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index MoM, France's June trade balance, Switzerland's July consumer confidence index, Canada's July employment change, the US July unemployment rate, US July seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US July average hourly earnings YoY, US July average hourly earnings MoM, US July New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, China's July US dollar-denominated trade balance, China's July foreign exchange reserves, and China's July trade balance data. Watches: 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaks on the US economy and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivers remarks. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with US oil gaining 4% and Brent oil surging 4.57%. Geopolitical risks rekindled, causing oil prices to spike sharply. Wall Street CN mentioned that the new navigation agreement for the Strait of Hormuz, proposed to be signed by Iran and Oman, revealed significant details again, indicating Iran's bid to control the strait. Furthermore, Iran has taken action, striking "enemy targets" near the strait. Iran's Fars News Agency (FARS) reported on Thursday, August 6, local time, that Iran's parliament is reviewing this agreement. Under the agreement, US and Israeli vessels will be barred from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and nations that have "caused harm to Iran" will also be denied passage permits. Following this news, concerns over risks to global energy transportation rapidly intensified in the market. (Wall Street CN) Saudi Arabia cut its main crude oil price for Asia as negotiations proceed on an agreement aimed at easing shipping pressure in the Strait of Hormuz. The price cut came despite Houthi threats jeopardizing the alternative eastbound crude route via the Red Sea. According to a price list, state oil company Saudi Aramco reduced the price of its Arab Light crude for delivery to Asian clients next month by $0.50 per barrel, setting it at a $2/bbl discount to the regional benchmark. A prior survey showed traders expected Saudi Aramco to keep its flagship crude price unchanged. Global benchmark Brent crude prices fell sharply this week and are now trading near $80/bbl. (Jin10 Data APP) Over the past two months, the UAE has transported more crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz than any other producer, providing a critical supply buffer to a global market suffering from a historic energy crisis. According to energy data firm Kpler, a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) loaded with Emirati cargo appeared in the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday after turning off its Automatic Identification System (AIS) signal at the end of July. The tanker carries crude from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. This is just one of dozens of similar tankers that have departed the Persian Gulf since the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) began implementing a new sales strategy. According to trading sources familiar with the matter, since early June, ADNOC has sold over 130 million barrels of crude oil through seven unprecedented tenders. (Jin10 Data APP)

[SMM Cobalt & Lithium Morning Call: Raw Material Prices Diverge, Industry Demand Maintains Structural Support] This week, industry chain prices showed divergence. Lithium ore, lithium chemicals, nickel chemicals and cobalt products were overall under pressure. Downstream procurement remained focused on long-term contract cargo pick-ups and essential restocking, and the market still held expectations of increasing supply and price declines in the long term. Cathode material side, ternary system prices pulled back along with raw material costs, while LFP and iron phosphate strengthened slightly, supported by order growth and cost support. Anode and separator markets held stable overall, and electrolyte moved up, driven by rising additive and solvent prices. Demand from energy storage, commercial vehicles and markets outside China maintained good performance, supporting continued growth in the industry's production schedules, but recovery on the consumption side remained relatively slow.