[SMM Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review] This week (May 18 – May 22), the most-traded platinum futures contract PT2606 on China's GFEX opened at 490.1 yuan/gram and closed at 485 yuan/gram, down 17.4 yuan/gram or 3.46% from last week's settlement price, with a highest price of 496.4 yuan/gram and a lowest price of 474.35 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium futures contract PD2606 opened at 340.35 yuan/gram and closed at 332.2 yuan/gram, down 13.85 yuan/gram or 4.00% from last week's settlement price, with a highest price of 343.95 yuan/gram and a lowest price of 327.65 yuan/gram. In terms of futures trading volume: the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 18,633 lots with a total turnover of 9.074 billion yuan and open interest of 7,283 lots, down 2,687 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 14,380 lots with a total turnover of 4.824 billion yuan and open interest of 5,213 lots, down 1,352 lots WoW. Platinum and palladium were in the doldrums this week. Both saw significant declines at the beginning of the week, mainly due to repeated Middle East geopolitical tensions with slow progress in US-Iran negotiations, critically low global crude oil inventories driving oil prices higher, coupled with rising rate hike expectations and rising US Treasury yields, which continued to weigh on precious metals valuations. After Wednesday, as US-Iran tensions eased somewhat, falling oil prices combined with pullbacks in medium- and long-term US Treasury yields led precious metals futures to rebound slightly, but the rebound was limited and failed to recover the ground lost at the beginning of the week. US Fed: Key focus should be on the swearing-in speech to be delivered tonight. Based on Warsh's previous policy stance, if he insists on prioritizing inflation fighting and releases rate hike expectations, precious metals are expected to remain under sustained pressure in the short term. Trade and tariffs: A constructive strategic stability relationship between China and the US was established, with the 10% fentanyl tariff on China removed, the 24% punitive tariff on China extended for another 18-month suspension, and the Section 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding, logistics, and maritime sectors suspended for 18 months, reducing trade and tariff uncertainties. In the near term, key areas to watch remain changes in US-Iran dynamics, GFEX platinum and palladium registered warrants, Warsh's inaugural speech, and trial results of palladium applications in the fiberglass sector.

SMM News, May 22: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.19%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.1%. SHFE lead rose 0.54%, and SHFE zinc edged up. SHFE tin rose 0.09%. SHFE nickel fell 0.59%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.11%, and the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.04%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.28%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.59%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 1.38%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore rose 0.19%, rebar fell 0.38%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.76%, and stainless steel rose 0.4%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 3.07%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.78%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper fell 0.06%. LME aluminum rose 0.15%, and LME lead edged up. LME zinc rose 0.35%. LME tin rose 0.34%. LME nickel rose 0.16%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.43%, and COMEX silver fell 0.33%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.13%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.61%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.34%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 0.57%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 4.51%, closing at 3,032.5 points. As of 11:41 on May 22, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 210 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 70 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,570 yuan/mt, down 955 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,465 yuan/mt, down 950 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro front Domestic: [NDRC: Supply-demand relationship expected to further improve, prices expected to continue operating within a stable range] Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated that prices in April continued the mild rebound trend since H2 last year, releasing positive signals of improving supply-demand relationship and optimized market order. Although the trajectory of international energy prices remained uncertain, China had a solid foundation for maintaining overall price stability. As a series of macro policies are implemented in depth, the supply-demand relationship in the market is expected to further improve, and prices are projected to continue operating within a stable range. [NDRC: During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, investment of over 5 trillion yuan is expected for new-type power grid construction] The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed strengthening the planning and construction of "six networks," including water networks, new-type power grids, computing power networks, next-generation communication networks, urban underground pipe networks, and logistics networks. On May 22, the NDRC held a press conference. At the conference, Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office of the NDRC, stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, investment of over 5 trillion yuan is expected to be directed toward planning and constructing a number of power transmission corridors and inter-provincial power supply projects, optimizing ultra-high voltage and extra-high voltage AC networks by layer and zone, and implementing a number of urban distribution network renewal projects, power grid renovation projects in weak areas, and rural grid frequent outage remediation projects. Li Chao stated that based on comprehensive analysis, the national peak electricity load this summer is expected to reach approximately 1.6 billion kW , an increase of about 90 million kW over last year, equivalent to adding the electricity load of an entire Henan Province. [NDRC: Guiding domestic large models to intensify efforts in adapting to domestic computing chips] Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office of the NDRC, stated at a press conference on May 22 that core technologies and application demands in the artificial intelligence sector are both exhibiting rapid growth. We have consistently adhered to systematic planning, sector-specific policies, openness and sharing, and safe and controllable development, promoting the broad and deep integration of artificial intelligence with all industries and sectors of the economy and society, guiding domestic large models to intensify efforts in adapting to domestic computing chips, and ensuring autonomous controllability, development for good, and steady long-term progress while maintaining rapid development, so that all people can share in the fruits of AI development. This is also a prominent characteristic of China's AI development. The PBOC conducted 153 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market, with the operation rate at 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 500 million yuan of reverse repos matured. US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index rose 0.05% to 99.25. The White House stated that the swearing-in ceremony for new Fed Chairman Warsh will be held at 11:00 AM on May 22 (23:00 Beijing time). Fed's Barkin stated that the ability of enterprises and consumers to absorb the latest round of supply shocks will determine whether the US central bank can continue to "look through" higher inflation without choosing to raise interest rates. In remarks prepared for a speech in Raleigh, North Carolina on Thursday, Barkin stated: "After inflation has been above our 2% target for more than five consecutive years, we need to consider whether the cumulative effect of so many rounds of shocks could cause the 'anchor' of inflation expectations to loosen."He also stated: "For me, the key question is how much more pressure enterprises, consumers, and inflation expectations can withstand." Barkin also expressed growing concern that the US may have entered a "new phase" in which supply shocks will become more frequent. These shocks could stem from multiple factors, including escalating geopolitical tensions, fragmentation of the trade system, more extreme weather events, rising government debt, and other structural forces. He also noted that, for now, the US Fed's monetary policy stance is "in a good place" to address risks on both the employment and inflation fronts. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June was 96.8%, with a 3.2% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike. The probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through July was 85.4%, with a 14.2% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike and a 0.4% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike. In addition, Nomura Securities expects the US Fed to keep rates unchanged in 2026, having previously forecast interest rate cuts in September and December this year. (Jin Shi Data) On the data front: Data to be released today include the US May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final reading, the US May one-year inflation expectations final reading, the US April Conference Board Leading Index month-over-month, the UK May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, UK April public sector net borrowing, UK April seasonally adjusted retail sales month-over-month, the Germany June GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Germany Q1 non-seasonally adjusted GDP year-over-year final reading, Germany May IFO Business Climate Index, Japan April core CPI year-over-year, and Canada March retail sales month-over-month. In addition, 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin will deliver a speech, and US Fed Governor Waller will deliver a speech. On crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 1.21% and Brent up 1.7%. Fluctuating US-Iran developments affected oil price movements, with market doubts over whether US-Iran negotiations could make progress supporting oil prices. Four sources said that seven major OPEC+ producing countries will most likely agree to a modest raise in the July production target when they meet on June 7, although supply from several of them remains disrupted by the Iran war. The sources said the monthly production target set by the seven core OPEC+ members is expected to be raised by approximately 188,000 barrels per day. In Q1 2026, OPEC+ maintained production unchanged, but since April, the group has raised its monthly production target despite the ongoing war. However, since the UAE's exit from the organization in May, the monthly production increase has been scaled back. Analysts and delegates believe that while the UAE's departure has weakened the organization's influence over the market, it may strengthen its internal cohesion. Additionally, sources said that two other OPEC+ meetings scheduled for June 7 are not expected to result in any policy adjustments. IEA Executive Director Birol said on Thursday that the arrival of the summer peak fuel demand season, combined with the lack of new oil exports from the Middle East and continued inventory drawdowns, could push the oil market into a "danger zone" during July-August, though he did not elaborate further. In his speech, Birol said the world was in a state of oil surplus when the supply crisis triggered by the Iran war broke out, which helped cushion the impact, but inventories are now steadily declining. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM May 22 update: Metals market: Overnight, base metals generally fell across both domestic and overseas markets. LME lead led the gains with a 1.39% increase, SHFE lead rose 0.57%, and LME aluminum gained 0.29%. LME nickel and SHFE tin both fell over 1%, with LME nickel down 1.21% and SHFE tin down 1.03%. LME tin closed flat at $53,795/mt, while other metals declined less than 1%. The alumina main contract fell 0.37%, and the casting aluminum main contract dropped 0.26%. Overnight, ferrous metals collectively declined, with hot-rolled coil down 0.7%, rebar down 0.5%, and iron ore and stainless steel showing slight fluctuations. Coking coal and coke side, coking coal fell 2.86% and coke dropped 1.53%. Overnight, precious metals side, COMEX gold rose 0.2% and COMEX silver gained 1.09%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.43% and SHFE silver gained 1.85%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:40 AM on May 22: Macro Front China: [NDRC: To improve policy measures on fair competition, investment and financing, promotion of technological innovation, and business regulation] Li Hui, Director of the Private Economy Development Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that the NDRC will better leverage its coordination function in promoting private economy development, organize and implement specific measures outlined in the rule-of-law action plan for safeguarding the private economy, and strengthen the implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law. The NDRC will improve supporting systems, refine relevant policy measures on fair competition, investment and financing, promotion of technological innovation, and business regulation; continue to jointly release typical cases with relevant departments to demonstrate law interpretation through cases; implement policy effectiveness assessments, promote direct and swift delivery of enterprise-benefiting policies, and guide enterprises in enhancing governance capabilities. US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.08% to 99.21. Last week, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits decreased, indicating a degree of resilience in the labour market and providing room for the US Fed to focus on addressing rising inflation. Data showed that initial jobless claims fell by 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 209,000 for the week ending May 16. Although economists expect jobless claims to increase over the summer due to seasonal factors, the labour market currently remains in a holding pattern. Financial markets currently expect the US Fed to maintain the benchmark overnight rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range until next year. Jin Shi Data APP) US Fed's Barkin stated that the ability of enterprises and consumers to absorb the latest round of supply shocks will determine whether the US central bank can continue to "look through" higher inflation without raising interest rates. In remarks prepared for a speech in Raleigh, North Carolina on Thursday, Barkin said: "After inflation has been above our 2% target for more than five years, it's worth asking whether the cumulative effect of so many rounds of shocks might loosen the 'anchor' of inflation expectations." He also said: "For me, the key question is how much more pressure enterprises, consumers, and inflation expectations can bear." Barkin added that he is increasingly concerned that the US may have entered a "new phase" in which supply shocks will become more frequent. These shocks could stem from multiple factors, including heightened geopolitical tensions, fragmentation of the trading system, more extreme weather events, rising government debt, and other structural forces. He also noted that, for now, the US Fed's monetary policy stance is "in a good place" to address risks on both the employment and inflation fronts. (Jin Shi Data APP) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June was 96.8%, with a 3.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike. The probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through July was 85.4%, with a 14.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike and a 0.4% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike. (Jin Shi Data APP) On the data front: Data to be released today include the US May University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final reading, US May one-year inflation expectations final reading, US April Conference Board leading indicators MoM, UK May GfK consumer confidence index, UK April public sector net borrowing, UK April seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM, Germany June GfK consumer confidence index, Germany Q1 non-seasonally adjusted GDP YoY final reading, Germany May IFO business climate index, Japan April core CPI YoY, and Canada March retail sales MoM. In addition, 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin will deliver a speech, and US Fed Governor Waller will deliver a speech. On crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices on both markets fell together, with WTI down 0.26% and Brent down 0.1%. According to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) citing Al Arabiya, a final draft of the US-Iran agreement has been reached under Pakistan's mediation and is expected to be announced within the coming hours. Rapidan Energy Group stated that if the Strait of Hormuz closure persists through August, downside economic risks will increase, with severity potentially approaching that of the 2008 Great Recession. The consultancy's base-case scenario assumes the waterway will reopen in July, under which daily average oil demand would decline by 2.6 million barrels and the benchmark Brent crude oil spot price would peak near $130 per barrel during the summer. (Wallstreetcn) According to informed sources, seven major OPEC+ producing countries may agree to a modest raise in oil production for July when they meet on June 7. Despite the ongoing Iran war currently raging, actual crude delivery channels for several of these countries remain in a state of complete disruption. The monthly combined production target proposed by the seven core OPEC+ members is expected to increase by approximately 188,000 barrels per day. Official OPEC statistics showed that total global OPEC+ oil production plunged sharply from 42.77 million barrels per day in February this year to 33.19 million barrels per day in April. Of that, daily production from Gulf region producing countries alone collapsed by 9.9 million barrels. (Reuters) As the US-Iran conflict has resulted in the loss of millions of barrels of crude oil supply, demand slowdown will be forced to become the primary means of balancing the supply-demand gap. The market is increasingly inclined to believe that oil prices will peak near $100 per barrel over the next year. This was one of the conclusions from a Bloomberg Intelligence survey this month, which received 126 responses from asset managers and other energy market professionals. Amrita Sen, co-founder and head of research at Energy Aspects, stated that the oil market is currently in a state of severe undersupply but has not yet faced a major shortage. The market is currently drawing down inventory and strategic reserves, but Energy Aspects estimates that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, shortages could begin to emerge by the end of June. "We are really just barely getting by right now, drawing down those inventories. Global refiners' purchases are low, and if they start buying again, market prices could overshoot. There won't be a global tank-bottoming, but it will certainly happen in some regions — on the crude side, parts of Asia, while the US refined products market is currently heading rapidly in that direction." (Bloomberg)

According to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): Since the adjustment of domestic refined oil prices on May 8, international crude oil prices fluctuated upward before pulling back somewhat. The average price over the 10 working days preceding this price adjustment was higher than the average price over the 10 working days preceding the last adjustment. Based on changes in international oil prices, starting from 24:00 on May 21, the prices of gasoline and diesel (standard products) in China were raised by 75 yuan/mt and 70 yuan/mt, respectively. PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, and other crude oil processing enterprises should properly organize the production and distribution of refined oil products, ensure stable market supply, and strictly implement national pricing policies. Relevant departments in all regions should strengthen market supervision and inspection, severely investigate and punish violations of national pricing policies, and maintain normal market order. Consumers may report pricing violations through the 12315 platform. Appendix: Maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and central cities

[SMM Lithium Battery Anode Raw Material Market Weekly Review: Anode Raw Material Coke Supported by Both Cost and Supply Factors, Market Prices Remained Firm and Stable] May 21: This week, anode raw material coke market prices in China remained firm.

[Price Review] Silver fell sharply at the beginning of this week, mainly due to repeated Middle East geopolitical tensions with slow progress in US-Iran negotiations, critically low global crude oil inventories driving oil prices higher, combined with rising interest rate hike expectations and rising US Treasury yields, which continued to weigh on precious metals valuations. On Wednesday evening, as US-Iran tensions eased somewhat, oil prices declined while medium- and long-term US Treasury yields both pulled back, and precious metals futures rebounded slightly. On the macro front, new Fed Chairman Waller delivered his first public speech maintaining a hawkish stance. Combined with US April non-farm payrolls and CPI both exceeding expectations, interest rate hike expectations continued to rise, with expectations for rate cuts within the year nearly zeroed out. CME Fed Watch showed a 97.3% probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged in June and a 2.7% probability of a rate cut; a 72.7% probability of rates remaining unchanged from current levels in September, a 2% probability of a rate cut, and a 25.4% probability of a rate hike. Industrial demand side, at the beginning of the week, downstream consumption recovered slightly as silver prices declined, but demand quickly faded as prices rebounded. Some suppliers also showed weak willingness to offer due to continuously widening transaction discounts, with the price spread between high and low offers widening. The silver spot market remained generally low in activity, and inventory continued to increase slightly. Gold/silver ratio, as of May 20, the LBMA gold/silver ratio rebounded to 59x, widening notably WoW. [Key Data] Bearish New Fed Chairman Waller delivered his first speech on May 15 with an extremely hawkish tone, explicitly stating there was no reason for rate cuts in the near term and not ruling out the possibility of resuming rate hikes. April CPI came in at 3.8% YoY (the highest since May 2023), core CPI at 2.8% (the highest since September 2025), and PPI at 6.0% YoY (the largest single-month increase in over four years), with inflation stickiness exceeding market expectations. The US dollar index rebounded above 105, the 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 4.5%, and the 30-year US Treasury yield reached above 5%, significantly raising the opportunity cost of holding precious metals. India raised silver import tariffs from 6% to 15% while tightening import quotas, causing demand from the world's largest physical buyer to drop sharply. Bullish: Peru's energy crisis continued, with a national state of emergency extending through year-end. Twelve large mines have implemented staggered production, and May silver production is expected to decline by 5%-8%, with the global supply-demand gap persisting. US-Iran negotiations saw new positive progress, with both sides engaging in indirect contact through Qatar and reaching preliminary consensus on some core disagreements. [Upcoming Focus] May 22: Waller's inauguration speech; Eurozone and UK May manufacturing PMI preliminary readings May 23: US May Markit manufacturing and services PMI preliminary readings May 27: US 2026 Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate revised value May 28: US April core PCE price index, weekly initial jobless claims Key focus: Waller's official inauguration speech as Fed Chairman, US-Iran negotiation progress [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to remain under pressure with adjustments next week, with core variables being Waller's inauguration speech and US-Iran negotiation progress. The market is closely watching Warsh's debut and four key focus areas: the US Fed's stance on independence, inflation framework reform, interest rate path, and balance sheet reduction pace. Combined with Warsh's previous policy positions, if he insists on prioritizing anti-inflation efforts and releases expectations of retaining the rate hike option, precious metals are expected to face sustained suppression in the short term. On the China fundamentals side, downstream buying sentiment is generally cautious. The decline in silver's absolute price has not significantly boosted downstream demand, and wait-and-see sentiment remains strong. Social inventory of spot silver ingots has increased slightly, and the market expects spot mainstream transaction discounts to widen slightly to the SGE TD discount range of 50-20 yuan/kg.