The fundamental challenge in the 304 stainless steel industrial chain is Instrument Asymmetry, a scenario where the dominant cost driver, Nickel Pig Iron (NPI), lacks a direct futures contract and forces participants to manage 75% of their risk using standardized proxies like pure nickel. This creates a lethal threat not from price volatility itself, but from the Basis Risk that occurs when physical assets and hedging tools decouple.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,965/mt, fluctuating downward during the Asian session; it dipped to $1,948.5/mt upon entering the European session, but then rose due to a weakening US dollar index, touching a high of $1,976.5/mt before finally settling at $1,974.5/mt. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 16,665 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,560 yuan/mt early in the session, then rebounded as bears reduced positions, reaching a high of 16,680 yuan/mt before finally settling at 16,665 yuan/mt, up 0.48%, forming a doji star. On the macro front: As markets awaited a series of US economic data, a weaker US dollar made dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to overseas buyers; spot gold extended gains. The White House's Hassett predicted worsening employment: AI boosts productivity, reduces labor demand. Alphabet planned to raise about $15 billion by issuing US dollar bonds. China's Ministry of Commerce held a symposium with automakers: Multiple measures to promote the expansion and quality improvement of auto consumption. The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing. Seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security provided administrative guidance on employment to leading platform companies and courier firms. Three departments including the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement on tax incentives for re-exported cross-border e-commerce goods. : SHFE lead stopped falling and stabilized, but as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, logistics vehicles halted in some regions, leading to reduced shipments and quotations from suppliers. Only some cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters were quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. In the secondary lead sector, more smelters were on holiday and reluctant to sell at low prices, with most enterprises suspending quotations; a few secondary refined lead offers were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises generally entered the year-end wrap-up phase, with minimal inquiries, resulting in thin trading in the spot market. Inventory: On February 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 100 mt to 232,750 mt. As of February 9, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions rose to a five-month high. Today's lead price forecast: With previously in-transit lead ingots by rail concentratedly arriving at warehouses, social inventory of lead ingots increased significantly, mainly reflected in Jiangsu and Zhejiang region warehouses. Last week, lead prices fell, prompting lead-acid battery enterprises to conduct relatively concentrated stockpiling of lead ingots, leading to a noticeable decline in lead smelters' in-factory inventory. This week being the last before the Chinese New Year, the final batch of lead-acid battery enterprises will enter the holiday state, further weakening lead consumption. Meanwhile, with the start of the Spring Festival travel season, migrant workers have returned to their hometowns, and the number of vehicles in operation has gradually decreased. Currently, some regions no longer support road transportation. It is expected that the growth momentum of social inventory for lead ingots will slow down, and the inventory buildup of lead ingots is anticipated to be more reflected in the smelters' plant inventories. Overall, lead prices are in the doldrums ahead of the holiday. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

During the Chinese New Year break, LME zinc's price center first declined and then rose. The 40-day moving average consistently supported the daily candlestick of LME zinc. After opening, the price center of LME zinc pulled back, hitting a low of $3,253/mt before rebounding steadily. Overall, the price center recovered, and as of Friday's close, LME zinc settled at $3,378/mt, up $35.5/mt for the week, a gain of 1.06%.

> SMM Cold Rolling Production Schedule: Daily average cold rolling production schedule at steel mills increased 3% in February According to the latest SMM tracking, the total planned volume of cold rolled commodity materials from 31 mainstream steel mills this month was 3.8755 million mt, down 278,300 mt MoM from the actual production of cold rolled commodity materials last month, a decrease of 6.7%.

On February 13, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 31,635 yuan/mt, with the quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate at 31,400–32,500 yuan/mt, and the average price remained unchanged from the previous day.

At the Indonesia Critical Minerals Conference & Expo 2025 - Tin Session, Stephanus Paulus Lumintang, CEO of Jakarta Futures Exchange (JFX), shared insights on the topic of "The Future Development of Indonesia's Tin Industry Policy."