[U.S.-Iran Conflict Sees Dramatic Reversal, ECB Rate Hike Weighs on Metal Prices] On the fundamentals side, the supply gap outside China is expected to provide strong bottom support for aluminum prices, and expectations of rising energy costs also create a bullish driver for aluminum prices; this Thursday, the destocking pace of China's aluminum ingot social inventory noticeably accelerated, effectively alleviating the previous high inventory pressure. However, China's high inventory pressure remains relatively pronounced and is expected to limit the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. In the short term, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly undergo volatile adjustments.

Raw material side, lithium carbonate prices edged up this week, nickel sulphate prices fluctuated, and cobalt sulphate prices continued to fall.

[SMM Central China Spot Aluminum Midday Review] SHFE aluminum prices experienced a slight correction. Shipment sentiment in the central China market improved further today compared to the previous two days, but downstream processing enterprises preferred to purchase at lower premiums, while suppliers showed weak willingness to hold prices firm. Market quotes declined continuously, gradually shifting from a discount of 100-110 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract before market open to a discount of around 120-140 yuan/mt against the same contract, with the mainstream transaction range being at a discount of 120-140 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract.

SMM, June 11: In early trading, the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract fluctuated upward, with the overall price center moving higher compared to the previous trading day. Today, market shipment sentiment was somewhat raised, and seller quotes moved up. However, affected by the higher aluminum price, downstream purchasing sentiment was suppressed. The mainstream spot aluminum transaction price in the market was at a discount of 90-120 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract. Today, the east China market Shipment Sentiment Index was 2.89, up 0.03 MoM; the Purchasing Sentiment Index was 286, down 0.04 MoM. The aluminum futures price experienced a slight correction. Today, the shipment sentiment in the central China market further improved compared to the previous two days, but downstream processing enterprises preferred to purchase at low premiums, and suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm was not strong. Market quotes trended lower, gradually shifting from a discount of 100-110 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract before the opening to around a discount of 120-140 yuan/mt against the contract. The mainstream transaction range was at a discount of 120-140 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract. Today, the central China market Shipment Sentiment Index was 2.90, up 0.01 MoM; the Purchasing Sentiment Index was 2.22, flat MoM. Inventory side, today, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas was down 1.95 MoM, with all three regions showing destocking trends.

June 10, 2026 The price of gold has triggered a technical warning signal by falling below its 200-day moving average. If upcoming U.S. inflation data reinforces expectations of persistently high interest rates, market observers warn that the precious metal could face an extended correction down to $4,000 per ounce. While short-term momentum is clearly weakened, many observers believe the long-term, structural investment thesis for gold remains intact. Technical sell-off accelerates After the gold price failed to establish itself permanently above the $4,500 mark, the subsequent break of the closely watched 200-day moving average has noticeably intensified selling pressure. Analysts at FOREX.com, for example, view this as having permanently damaged the short-term chart picture. The next critical support level is now a long-term upward trend line in the $4,230 range, followed by the annual lows from March at around $4,100. Should this zone also fall, the market will lack solid technical support levels, making a pullback to the psychologically important $4,000 mark likely. A look at the historical pattern in September 2023 highlights the relevance of this signal: At that time, the price plummeted by another 5 percent after breaking the 200-day moving average. Whether the bears retain control will thus be decided primarily by the key zone between $4,230 and $4,100. U.S. Inflation and a Restrictive Fed as Headwinds The fundamental headwind for the non-interest-bearing precious metal comes primarily from U.S. monetary policy . The upcoming US Consumer Price Index is eagerly awaited, with core inflation forecast to rise by 2.9 percent year-over-year. A hotter data point is likely to reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will have to keep interest rates at elevated levels for longer, which strengthens the US dollar and weighs on gold via rising opportunity costs (US Treasury yields). Other analysts also expect continued volatility with a moderate downward trend in the short term, given the robust U.S. labor market and persistent inflationary pressures. As long as bond yields remain high and hopes for rate cuts fade, only extreme geopolitical upheavals are likely to be able to reverse this macroeconomic trend. Structural drivers support the long-term outlook Despite the gloomy short-term outlook, experts advise against losing sight of the long-term perspective. They point to the ongoing diversification of global central bank reserves, as central banks worldwide are increasing their gold holdings to specifically reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar. Additionally, drastically rising government debt, fiscal risks in major industrialized nations, and geopolitical instability act as reliable, strategic drivers of demand. In this context, it is emphasized that the fundamental investment thesis remains intact. Systemic risks in the global financial system and real inflationary pressures persist. Two different time horizons are thus currently colliding in the gold market: While the technical picture and the interest rate environment point to further turbulence in the short term, gold remains supported in the long term by central bank purchases and systemic currency risks. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-under-pressure-how-hard-will-the-correction-hit

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Middle East Conflicts Flare Up Again, SHFE Tin Contract Price Center Continues to Decline to Around 390,000]