On July 3, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) came in at -$128.25/dmt, down $3.80/dmt from -$124.45/dmt in the previous period. The SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (monthly) for June was -$121.44/dmt, a decrease of $18.31/dmt from -$103.13/dmt in May. The payable indicator for 20% grade domestic copper ore was 97.5%-98.5%. This week, copper concentrate spot market trading activity improved from last week, with results from several mine tenders being released. In terms of spot transactions, a trader sold 20,000 mt of HVC and 10,000 mt of blended ore as a package to a smelter at an average of SMM and Fastmarket indices minus $15/mt, for shipment from August to September, QP: M+5. Another trader sold 10,000 mt of South American clean ore to a smelter at an average of SMM and Fastmarket indices minus $15/mt, for shipment in August, QP: M+5. Market rumors suggested that a trader sold 30,000-50,000 mt of imported copper concentrates to a smelter at a fixed number of -$127/dmt. On the mine tender front, results from a leading mine tender were released, with a transaction at -$196/dmt on the trader side. According to SMM, a smelter participated in this tender and was awarded, but the exact transaction price is currently unknown. The results of last week's Gibraltar tender were released, with market rumors of a transaction at -$180/dmt on the trader side, for shipment in H1 2027, with a volume of 30,000-60,000 mt. Additionally, a tender for a complex Peruvian blended ore was conducted, with a transaction price on the trader side of -$150/dmt, for 10,000 mt per year from 2026 to 2028, ore type Cobriza, QP: M+3. Overall, the downward trend in the copper concentrate spot market persisted, with mine tender and trader offer prices remaining deeply negative. However, as spot TC continued to breach historical extremes, Chinese smelters' resistance to current prices strengthened. Currently, smelters' psychological price level is largely around -$120/dmt, making it difficult for low-priced offers to be accepted in the spot market. The spot TC for imported copper concentrates has limited further downside room. On July 1, Chilean miner AMSA and some core Chinese copper smelters finalized the pricing scheme for the mid-year annual copper concentrate TC contract, abandoning the traditional fixed TC model for the first time in favor of a guaranteed floor index-linked pricing mechanism. It is reported that the persistently historically low spot TCs in the copper concentrate spot market created multiple disagreements during these mid-year term contract negotiations. Chinese smelters have historically used fixed TC pricing for mid-year term contracts, but AMSA insisted on switching to index-based pricing this time. Ultimately, the two parties reached an innovative compromise solution. On June 26, Anhui Youjin Guanhua New Material Technology Co., Ltd.'s 100,000 mt copper cathode smart electrolysis project officially commenced production and produced copper. According to SMM, the project is located in Guichi District, Chizhou City, Anhui province, with a total investment of about 835 million yuan. Currently, the company's monthly copper cathode production is about 10,000 mt. After the project is put into operation, it will bring a certain increment to regional copper cathode supply. SMM's copper concentrates inventory at eleven ports stood at 657,000 mt in physical content on July 3, up 40,800 mt in physical content from June 26. The main increases came from Fangchenggang Port and Qingdao Port, up 50,000 mt and 30,000 mt WoW respectively.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow, today was the first trading day of July, a new monthly procurement cycle began, downstream enterprises’ restocking demand at the beginning of the month was released to some extent, and both buying and selling sentiment rebounded markedly, lifting market trading activity. Supplier side, after low-priced cargoes dwindled, suppliers’ willingness to hold prices firm became evident, with the premium for high-quality copper staying at a high of 50-80 yuan/mt. The inter-month price spread was near parity, limiting suppliers’ delivery profits from holding positions, weakening their willingness to sell at low prices, and providing support for spot discounts. Overall, driven by the release of month-start restocking demand, buying interest spurred by low copper prices, and suppliers’ resolve to hold prices firm, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract tomorrow are expected to edge up.

Ferrari, BMW, Tesla and several Chinese EV makers are increasingly using aluminium wiring as a substitute for copper. JPMorgan estimates the trend could affect around 2% of global copper demand this year and potentially around 6% by 2030, driven by high copper prices, lower aluminium costs and vehicle lightweighting needs.

SMM Analysis | June 30 marks a critical milestone in the U.S. Section 232 copper investigation. Will refined copper tariffs proceed as expected? Whether the outcome is a broad tariff, targeted measures, or a delay and exemption, the decision could reshape the COMEX–LME arbitrage, U.S. physical premiums, global copper trade flows, and regional supply dynamics.

[SMM Flash] On June 26, the 100,000 mt copper cathode smart electrolysis project of Anhui Youjin Guanhua New Material Technology Co., Ltd. officially commenced production and yielded copper. According to SMM, the project is located in Guichi District, Chizhou city, Anhui province, with a total investment of approximately 835 million yuan. Currently, the company's monthly copper cathode production is about 10,000 mt, and once commissioned, the project will bring a certain increase to regional copper cathode supply.

Rio Tinto is reportedly in early-stage discussions with commodity trading giant Vitol regarding the formation of a freight and logistics joint venture. According to market sources, the talks include potential cooperation in freight management and freight risk management tools, although the structure and scope of any agreement have yet to be finalized. The discussions reflect Rio Tinto's ongoing efforts to strengthen supply chain efficiency and improve value creation across its commodity portfolio, including copper. The move follows the company's broader strategy of streamlining operations and enhancing commercial capabilities after ending acquisition talks with Glencore earlier this year.