[SMM Copper Cathode Rod Flash] The trade structure has seen a significant change. In H1 2026, the proportion of exports under processing trade with imported materials pulled back to 57.76%, while the share of processing trade with supplied materials rose to 32.93%. Compared to the same period last year, when it heavily relied on processing trade with imported materials, the situation has improved significantly. The changing characteristics of export orders have prompted enterprises' order-taking modes to become more diversified.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the SHFE copper 2608 contract rose further during the night session, basically trading between 106,000 yuan/mt and 106,800 yuan/mt. With the recent synchronized increase in copper prices and spot premiums, while the SHFE contract structure maintains a backwardation structure, downstream purchase willingness has weakened significantly, with transactions mainly driven by rigid demand. According to SMM, affected by high copper prices and accumulated finished product inventories, some downstream processing enterprises plan to cut production or temporarily halt operations. The impact of weakening end-use consumption on the spot market is gradually becoming evident. In terms of supplier behavior, intraday selling drove the premium center lower. Overall, under the combined effect of high copper prices and premiums suppressing downstream demand, along with increased willingness to sell among suppliers, it is expected that spot copper quotations in Shanghai against the 2608 contract will maintain a premium tomorrow, with the overall center likely to edge down slightly.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in June 2026, China imported 210,900 mt in physical content of copper scrap and shredded copper scrap, up 10.43% MoM and up 15.11% YoY. In January-June 2026, cumulative imports reached 1.2415 million mt in physical content, up 8.39% YoY.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SMM recorded social inventory in Shanghai at 66,100 mt, down 10,400 mt WoW from last Thursday, while Jiangsu recorded 19,600 mt, up 100 mt WoW from last Thursday. Available spot supply remains tight, hovering at a low for the year, with the destocking trend unchanged, pushing the center of spot premiums higher and hitting a new high for the year. Meanwhile, the spot price spread between Shanghai and Guangdong widened further, opening the window for cross-regional shipments. According to SMM, some suppliers have already initiated cargo transfers from Guangdong to Shanghai, with the shipped copper cathode expected to arrive in the Shanghai market this week. If arrivals are substantial, this could provide marginal relief to the current tight spot market. However, given the limited scale of near-term arrivals and the fact that absolute inventory levels remain low, the downward pressure on premiums is expected to be relatively limited. On balance, with tightness in available supply persisting in the near term, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2608 contract are expected to remain at a premium tomorrow.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Tomorrow, the currently available spot copper remains tight, at a year-to-date low, and the inventory destocking trend remains unchanged. Moreover, the backwardation structure has widened. Intraday, suppliers continued to raise their quotes, showing a strong willingness to hold prices firm. Overall, under the combined influence of tight available supply, suppliers holding prices firm, and downstream just-in-time procurement, SHFE copper spot prices against the 2608 contract next Monday are expected to maintain a premium, with the overall premium center continuing to rise.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the current social inventory continues to destock rapidly. SMM data shows that Shanghai's social inventory recorded 76,500 mt, down 9,100 mt MoM; Jiangsu's social inventory recorded 19,500 mt, down 6,900 mt MoM, with available spot cargoes remaining persistently tight. From the perspective of supplier behavior, after low-priced cargoes were quickly digested, the market found it difficult to locate discounted cargoes, and suppliers held firm in their intention to support prices. High-quality copper premiums were maintained at a high of 360-400 yuan/mt. After the contract rollover, the backwardation spread between the front-month and next-month contracts narrowed but still stayed at a relatively high level. Overall, with inventory continuing to destock and limited replenishment arrivals, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE 2608 contract are expected to remain at a premium tomorrow, with the overall center possibly moving slightly higher.