According to foreign media reports, Lloyds Metals & Energy has been authorized to undertake preparatory works and feasibility activities aimed at assessing the potential redevelopment of the Panguna copper-gold mine in Bougainville, Papua New Guinea, nearly four decades after the operation was shut down. The Autonomous Bougainville Government granted the authorization on August 7, allowing Lloyds to carry out an approved programme of preparatory and feasibility work required to assess and plan the future redevelopment of the mine. Lloyds is acting as the approved development partner of government-owned Bougainville Minerals, which holds the mining lease covering Panguna. The project represents a potentially significant source of long-term copper supply. Panguna's remaining reserves are estimated at approximately 5.3 million tonnes of copper and 19.3 million oz of gold, while Lloyds plans to revalidate the project's resource base as part of the redevelopment process. The mine has remained closed since 1989. The latest authorization follows the granting of a 25-year mining lease to Bougainville Minerals in June, providing a framework for further evaluation of the dormant asset. However, the current approval does not permit construction or copper production to begin. Any progression into those stages will require additional approvals, meaning a potential restart remains subject to further technical, regulatory and development work. The renewed progress at Panguna is notable given the scale of the historical deposit and growing efforts globally to develop additional copper supply. The immediate impact on mine supply remains limited, but successful feasibility work and resource revalidation could provide greater clarity on whether one of the world's largest dormant copper assets can eventually return to production.

On the macro front , copper prices rose first and then fell this week, with the price center lifting WoW. US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, significantly weaker than expected; however, CPI fell to 3.4% YoY and core CPI declined to 2.5%, with inflation largely in line with market expectations, easing concerns about inflation exceeding expectations. In addition, the slowdown in US July PPI growth exceeded expectations, and traders reduced bets on a US Fed rate hike in September, with the latest probability at 32%; LME copper bottomed out. Domestically, the People's Bank of China said it would strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, promptly plan and introduce incremental policies, and step up efforts to expand domestic demand, providing some support to market sentiment. Geopolitically, US-Iran negotiations and arrangements for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz continued to swing back and forth, with all parties sending different signals on ceasefire deadlines, safe shipping routes and control of the strait. The situation in the Middle East remained highly uncertain, prompting copper prices to fluctuate at high levels. As of 9:00 a.m. Beijing time on August 14, 2026, LME copper touched a weekly high of $14,262/mt, then fell to a low of $13,955/mt, down $307/mt from the high, a decline of about 2.15%; the most-traded SHFE copper contract touched a low of 107,130 yuan/mt, then rose to a high of 108,740 yuan/mt, up 1,610 yuan/mt from the low, a gain of about 1.50%. Fundamentals side , as of August 13, SMM copper inventories in major Chinese regions fell by 2,200 mt from last Monday to 116,700 mt, and total inventories were 8,900 mt lower than the 125,600 mt recorded in the same period last year. Domestic inventories remained at relatively low levels. Supply side, typhoon weather briefly affected cargo flows in east China at the start of the week; as of August 14, open interest in the SHFE copper 2608 contract was 11,615 lots, equivalent to 58,000 mt of metal content; over the same period, registered copper warrants on the SHFE stood at 27,200 mt, and potential deliverable volume was about 2.1 times warrant volume. Open interest in nearby contracts remained significantly higher than current registered warrants; combined with the upcoming delivery, this widened inter-month backwardation and lifted position-rolling costs for suppliers. Suppliers showed greater willingness to sell for cash, boosting spot supply in circulation. Of these, high-quality copper supply remained relatively limited, while non-registered copper supply was ample, and brand differentiation continued. Import side, the nearby LME backwardation structure widened, while the SHFE/LME price ratio for imports weakened; downstream purchase willingness remained low, and actual market deals were sluggish. Demand side, the traditional consumption off-season combined with high copper prices meant downstream users still mainly made just-in-time procurement, and overall transactions showed no significant improvement. For secondary copper, tax-inclusive supply tightened and invoice costs rose; scrap utilization enterprises pushed for lower prices, and the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap stayed high. Looking ahead to next week , on the macro front, US employment data weakened significantly, CPI and PPI pointed to easing inflation pressures, market expectations for a September rate hike continued to decline, and expectations for domestic incremental policy will also continue to support copper prices. If US economic data strengthen again and the US Fed sends further hawkish signals, renewed rate hike expectations and a stronger US dollar will pressure copper prices. Fundamentals side, COMEX inventories continued to increase, while LME inventories and deliverable stocks continued to decline; supply outside the US tightened, supporting LME copper. In China, after delivery of the SHFE copper 2608 contract ends, nearby open interest pressure will ease and the inter-month backwardation will gradually narrow; domestic copper production and imported arrivals will increase, and combined with the consumption off-season and high copper prices, upside room for SHFE copper will be limited. In the short term, fundamentals will dominate the divergence between SHFE and LME, while macro expectations will mainly provide bottom support for copper prices. Overall, LME copper is expected to trade at $13,950-$14,150/mt next week, and the most-traded SHFE copper contract is expected to trade at 107,000-108,500 yuan/mt. Support for LME copper is stronger than for SHFE copper; LME copper is expected to rise, and SHFE copper will follow with modest gains, with LME outperforming SHFE overall.

Chile's Mining Minister Daniel Massaid that reactivating the mining integration treaty with Argentina could release more than $20.7 billion in investment and add540,000 mt of copper supply to the market annually.

SMM, August 13: Data summary: As of Thursday, August 13, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China fell by 2,500 mt WoW to 116,700 mt, with total inventory 8,900 mt lower than the 125,600 mt in the same period last year. By region, the Shanghai region was disrupted by typhoons earlier, slowing the pace of warehouse withdrawals and causing inventory buildup; in the Jiangsu region, warehouse inflows and withdrawals were broadly balanced, with limited inventory changes; in the Guangdong region, arrivals declined and warehouse withdrawals increased as a major downstream producer resumed production, driving sustained declines in Guangdong inventory. Looking ahead, supply side, near-term domestic copper arrivals have tightened somewhat due to export diversions, while imported cargoes continue to arrive at ports, marginally easing domestic supply pressure. Demand side, high copper prices combined with the traditional consumption off-season keep end-use demand weak. Currently, spot copper supply is becoming more ample, and market trading sentiment is subdued. Based on supply-demand fundamentals, nationwide copper social inventory is expected to accumulate modestly next week.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,230/mt, drifted higher early in the session to touch a high of $14,262/mt, then the copper price center shifted straight down, dipping to $14,096.5/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at $14,109.5/mt, down 0.31%. Trading volume reached 16,900 lots, while open interest reached 263,000 lots, up 1,892 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting an increase in short positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 108,610 yuan/mt, immediately touched a high of 109,730 yuan/mt early in the session, then the copper price center drifted lower, dipping to 107,730 yuan/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at 107,780 yuan/mt, down 0.36%. Trading volume reached 34,000 lots, while open interest reached 212,000 lots, down 2,364 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting a decrease in long positions.

SMM, August 13: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,230/mt. In early trading, it drifted higher to touch a high of $14,262/mt, then fell in a straight line, dipping to $14,096.5/mt near the end of trading before eventually closing at $14,109.5/mt, down 0.31%. Trading volume reached 16,900 lots, while open interest reached 263,000 lots, up 1,892 lots from the previous trading day, as bears added to positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 108,610 yuan/mt and immediately touched a high of 109,730 yuan/mt. It then drifted lower, dipping to 107,730 yuan/mt near the end of trading and eventually closing at 107,780 yuan/mt, down 0.36%. Trading volume reached 34,000 lots, while open interest reached 212,000 lots, down 2,364 lots from the previous trading day, as bulls reduced positions. On the macro front, US July CPI data was mild, and market expectations for the probability of a September rate hike fell to around 40%. In the Middle East, Iran said the ceasefire did not need to be extended, Pakistan said the memorandum of understanding deadline could be extended, Kuwait foiled an attack plot, and Trump claimed that the US fully controls the Strait of Hormuz. With Middle East uncertainty persisting and inflation data in line with expectations, overnight copper prices shot up and then pulled back. Fundamentals side, supply-side shipments increased near delivery, and available supply became marginally looser. However, high-quality copper remained tight, while non-registered copper supply was ample, creating overall structural divergence. Demand side, high copper prices and the off-season constrained demand, leaving it persistently weak with little improvement. Overall, copper prices are expected to move sideways with a firmer bias today.