SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,073.5/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of $13,098/mt in early trading, then the copper price center gradually declined to $12,967/mt, and finally closed at $12,989/mt, down 0.35%, with trading volume at 19,400 lots and open interest at 276,000 lots, an increase of 42 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 101,190 yuan/mt, rose to 101,390 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward throughout the session to a low of 100,790 yuan/mt near the close, and finally closed at 100,820 yuan/mt, down 0.43%, with trading volume at 37,700 lots and open interest at 195,000 lots, a decrease of 896 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,060/mt. Early in the session, the copper price center gradually shifted lower to $12,937.5/mt, then fluctuated upward to a high of $13,075/mt, before experiencing wild swings and ultimately closing at $13,034.5/mt, down 1.45%, with trading volume at 27,900 lots and open interest at 275,500 lots, down 3,200 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 101,020 yuan/mt, touching a low of 100,620 yuan/mt early in the session, then fluctuated upward to 101,320 yuan/mt, before moving sideways and ultimately closing at 101,000 yuan/mt, down 1.15%, with trading volume at 51,000 lots and open interest at 200,000 lots, down 2,327 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,316.5/mt, touching a high of $13,329/mt early in the session. Copper prices then saw their center gradually shift lower, dipping to $13,193/mt, before fluctuating upward to ultimately close at $13,226.5/mt, down 0.47%. Trading volume reached 15,500 lots, and open interest reached 278,700 lots, an increase of 1,326 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,540 yuan/mt, touching a high of 102,660 yuan/mt early in the session, then fluctuated downward to a low of 102,050 yuan/mt, before experiencing wild swings to ultimately close at 102,280 yuan/mt, down 0.64%. Trading volume reached 35,000 lots, and open interest reached 208,000 lots, a decrease of 4,047 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,317/mt, moved sideways after the opening before dipping to a low of $13,168/mt, then the center rose to a high of $13,348/mt, and finally closed at $13,259/mt, down 0.68%, with trading volume at 18,000 lots, a decrease of 809 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 316,000 lots, a decrease of 4,795 lots from the previous trading day, with the overall movement mainly characterized by bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 102,670 yuan/mt, fluctuated downward after the opening to a low of 101,780 yuan/mt, then the center rose to a high of 102,880 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 102,550 yuan/mt, down 0.15%, with trading volume at 55,000 lots, a decrease of 51,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 186,000 lots, an increase of 1,437 lots from the previous trading day, with the overall movement mainly characterized by bears adding positions.

This week, the secondary copper rod market operated against the backdrop of copper prices fluctuating at highs above the 100,000 yuan mark, with all segments of the industry chain struggling to find balance amid policy constraints and price negotiations. The market overall exhibited complex characteristics of "marginal recovery on the production side, price pressure on the raw material side...

At the start of this week, the market continued to trade on shifting sentiment around US-Iran negotiations and passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran initially indicated that merchant vessels could transit the Strait of Hormuz, which marginally improved risk appetite and kept copper prices fluctuating at highs. However, Trump subsequently stated that extending the ceasefire agreement was highly unlikely, Iran denied restarting a second round of negotiations in the near term, and renewed uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz situation pushed risk-off sentiment higher. By mid-week, Trump signaled an extension of the ceasefire with Iran without setting a clear deadline, and indicated that a new round of talks could resume as early as Friday, boosting risk appetite and sending copper prices higher again. On Thursday, however, renewed obstacles in US-Iran negotiations and escalating regional tensions strengthened the US dollar index, capping copper prices on the upside. Overall, the macro theme this week remained the repeated swings in risk appetite driven by shifting US-Iran negotiation expectations, keeping copper prices hovering at highs. On the fundamentals side, supply side, arrivals of imported copper increased marginally, but domestic copper supply remained tight due to smelter maintenance and relatively tight copper scrap supply. Demand side, with copper prices persistently elevated, downstream purchasing sentiment was generally cautious, with just-in-time procurement dominating for most of the week, and acceptance improving only marginally after price pullbacks. Inventory side, as of Thursday, April 23, SMM's nationwide copper inventories in major regions fell to 258,900 mt, with destocking continuing but the pace narrowing noticeably. Overall, the supply-demand imbalance this week was relatively small, with low inventories and tight domestic arrivals continuing to support prices, while high copper prices continued to weigh on downstream purchase willingness. Looking ahead to next week, the macro narrative is expected to remain largely unchanged for now. If US-Iran talks continue to progress, there is still room for risk appetite to recover, but given the repeated setbacks in negotiations and unresolved Strait of Hormuz disruptions, copper prices are likely to continue hovering at highs. Fundamentals side, increased import arrivals will provide some supply supplement, but tight domestic supply and continued inventory drawdowns should continue to support prices on the downside. LME copper is expected to fluctuate in the range of $13,100–$13,550/mt, and SHFE copper in the range of 101,500–104,500 yuan/mt. Spot side, against a backdrop of elevated absolute prices, downstream demand is expected to remain driven by just-in-time procurement, with spot prices against the SHFE copper front-month contract expected to range from a discount of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 150 yuan/mt.