Since March 4, 2026, secondary copper rod has shifted to a premium of 200-400 yuan/mt against the most-traded futures contract. Meanwhile, the price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod narrowed sharply from around 1,200 yuan/mt to about 300 yuan/mt

As of March 9, SMM recorded total social inventory of copper cathode in major regions of China at 578,900 mt, up 1,700 mt from last week and up 70,400 mt from February 24, reaching a historical high. Over the same period, spot premiums for SMM #1 copper cathode gradually recovered from premium -260 yuan/mt on February 27 to parity on March 10. Overall, this upswing in spot premiums was mainly driven by the approach of delivery, under which the contango price spread between nearby and next-month contracts stayed around 300 yuan/mt; suppliers held prices firm and withheld sales, while about half of the material was converted into warrants and locked in, jointly tightening circulating supply. Observing the inventory accumulation pace, from the week of March 2 to March 9, inventories in three key regions increased by 14,400 tons, a growth of 2.65%. This marks a significant slowdown compared to the average weekly increase of approximately 45,000 tons during the period from February 5 to February 26. The deceleration in inventory buildup provided room for improvement in premiums. Current inventory accumulation primarily stems from two factors: First, the continued arrival of imported copper. According to SMM research, a substantial volume of imported copper continues to arrive recently, and it is expected that arrivals will not see a significant decline in March. The steady inflow of imported materials provides a continuous supply supplement to the domestic market and is a crucial support for maintaining high total inventory levels. The actual situation of imported arrivals in April remains to be confirmed, requiring close attention to customs data at month-end and changes in port clearance pace. Second, some cargoes are being delivered into bonded/warehouse warrant stocks. According to the electrolytic copper spot purchasing and selling sentiment indices for the Shanghai region recorded by SMM, the purchasing sentiment index rose from 2.08 on February 24 to 2.78 on March 10, while the selling sentiment index increased from 2.09 to 2.90 over the same period. Some downstream players have limited acceptance of current copper prices, maintaining a procurement strategy focused on immediate needs, resulting in selling sentiment slightly outpacing purchasing sentiment. Based on SMM's communications with enterprises: Upstream Producer 1: Recent consumption is relatively good, with daily sales around 2,000 tons. Upstream Producer 2: Currently produced electrolytic copper is primarily for export. Domestic inventories are low, so there's no rush to sell. Unwilling to sell when discounts are excessive. Trader 1: Quotations in the Changzhou market are higher than in Shanghai, mainly because locally available circulating cargoes are mostly warrants. Under the current spread structure, holders have high flexibility in selling – they can choose to sell or hold. Trader 2: The market is not short of supply; there are still a large number of warrants in warehouses awaiting digestion. However, due to the delivery mechanism, the incentive to sell depends on the premium level. Only when the premium exceeds the cost of capital will there be a strong willingness to liquidate. Downstream User 1: Recent orders are relatively robust. When copper prices fell on March 9, we already replenished inventories at the low point. Current raw material inventory can sustain operations until March 15. There are no immediate plans for further procurement; subsequent needs will primarily be met through long-term contract drawdowns. Downstream User 2: The recent spot premium has been quite firm, mainly due to the spread between months. Without such a high monthly spread, the premium would definitely not reach this level. In summary, this round of recovery in spot premiums is driven by multiple factors: First, the approach of delivery and the widening monthly spread strengthened holders' willingness to support prices. With delivery approaching, the Contango spread between months remains around 300 yuan/ton. Holders are underpinning prices, reluctant to sell, and strongly inclined to deliver stocks into warrants. Second, the inventory structure further amplified the tightness of available circulating supply. Taking Jiangsu as an example, out of 118,000 tons of social inventory, 94,000 tons were futures warrants. This portion is locked in delivery warehouses, making it difficult to form effective supply in the short term, leading to a phase of relative tightness in spot market circulating cargoes. According to SMM, some downstream companies in Jiangsu struggled to source materials in the market and opted to procure using the SMM Flat Copper Price average as a benchmark with minor adjustments. Third, the comprehensive resumption of work by downstream enterprises released procurement demand. After the Lantern Festival, downstream processing enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai entered a full resumption phase. Surveys indicate that companies in the battery materials sector maintain high operating rates. Copper foil processors reported that downstream battery manufacturers sustain high operating rates, with March production schedules already showing characteristics of the peak season. Copper tube companies, supported by peak season stocking from the air conditioning industry, have operating rates exceeding pre-holiday levels. Although the recovery pace in the wire & cable and copper rod sectors is relatively slow, overall procurement demand has significantly improved compared to the first week after the holiday. Fourth, the decline in copper prices activated downstream restocking intentions. Recently, Shanghai copper futures prices retreated somewhat, stimulating downstream enterprises to purchase at dips. Previously suppressed by high copper prices, downstream players mostly maintained a cautious just-in-time procurement strategy, resulting in generally low raw material inventory levels. After the price pullback, some companies took the opportunity to replenish stocks, boosting spot transaction activity.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: LME copper opened at $13,299/mt overnight. After opening, the price center fluctuated downward, hitting a low of $13,244/mt, then rose to a high of $13,350/mt by the end of the session, finally closing at $13,349.5/mt, up 1.17%. Trading volume reached 19,000 lots, down 6,860 lots from the previous session; open interest stood at 321,000 lots, up 4,315 lots from the previous session, mainly driven by an increase in long positions. The most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 102,880 yuan/mt overnight, hitting a high of 103,250 yuan/mt early in the session, then the price center moved downward and hit a bottom at 102,520 yuan/mt, finally closing at 103,040 yuan/mt, up 0.58%. Trading volume reached 45,000 lots, down 65,000 lots from the previous session; open interest stood at 177,000 lots, up 3,546 lots from the previous session, mainly driven by an increase in long positions.

In July 2025, JCC Group's first wholly-owned overseas factory, the Jiangxi Copper (Zambia) Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. wire and cable project, officially commenced full-scale production at the Jiangxi Industrial Park in Zambia. The first phase of the project involved an investment of $11 million, focusing on the production of high-quality low-voltage wire and cable and oxygen-free copper rod, with a core production capacity of 40,000 kilometers of wire and cable and 10,000 mt of oxygen-free copper rod annually. Among them, the specifications of wire and cable products range from 0.3mm² to 630mm², including power cables, power supply cords, building wires, PV wires, industrial control cables, etc.; the specifications of copper semis products cover 0.15mm to 8.0mm, including bare copper wires, bare copper strands, copper rods, etc.

As a crucial strategic cluster for China's wire and cable industry, North China has cultivated a 100-billion-level industry chain ecosystem by leveraging its robust industrial foundation and policy dividends. However, compared to mature industrial belts like the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, it still faces challenges such as insufficient coordination and room for improving innovation efficiency. Against this backdrop, SMM (Shanghai Metals Market) will host the 2025 SMM (First) North China Wire and Cable IndustryZ3/> in Ningjin, Hebei on August 8, 2025 , under the theme of " Gathering Strength in North China · Chaining the Future ". The event will convene enterprises across the entire industry chain including wire and cable, magnet wire, copper/aluminum conductors, and material equipment to jointly explore new development pathwaysZ10/>The conference focuses on three strategic directions: " Industry Chain Synergy · Mutual Benefits in the North ", " Smart Chain Integration · Green Energy Transformation ", and " Strategic Chain Collaboration · Global Competition-Cooperation " , aiming to promote resource integration, technological upgrading, and ecological co-construction for North China's wire and cable sector. Leveraging over a decade of industry expertise, SMM will establish a high-end communication platform to help enterprises seize market opportunities, enhance industry chain resilience, and inject new momentum into the high-quality development of North China's and even the nation's wire and cable industry. SMM, together with Tianjin Xinhong Recycling Resources Co., Ltd. & Jiangxi Baoqi New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. & Jiangxi Xindehai New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. , sincerely invites industry peers to gather in Ningjin, Hebei, and jointly embark on a new chapter for the industry! Click Registration Form to register immediately. We look forward to meeting you at the conference. Tianjin Xinhong Recycling Resources Co., Ltd. , located in Ziya Circular Economy Industrial Park, Jinghai District, Tianjin, specializes in recycling of renewable resources, non-ferrous metal rolling processing, and metal products manufacturing. The company operates a 50,000-mt/year continuous casting and rolling production line for electrical copper rods. Since its establishment, it has adhered to innovation-driven development, introduced advanced domestic and overseas production equipment and technologies following the principles of innovation, efficiency, quality, and safety. Guided by the philosophy of "Quality First, Service First", the company focuses on product excellence and customer collaboration to jointly create high-quality products. Jiangxi Baoqi New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. , situated at No. 286, Shenzhen Avenue, Jinggangshan Economic and Technological Development Zone, Ji'an City, Jiangxi Province, specializes in secondary copper recycling, non-ferrous metal rolling, and metal products manufacturing. Its main products include 8mm low-oxygen copper rods and 8mm-25mm upward-drawn oxygen-free copper rods. The company has a complete and scientific quality management system certification. Established in April 2022, the company has a registered capital of 50 million yuan and occupies an area of over 40 mu. It currently operates four production lines for oxygen-free rods using up-casting furnaces and one production line for low-oxygen rods using continuous casting and rolling. The annual production capacity includes 32,000 mt of up-cast oxygen-free copper rods and 50,000 mt of 8mm low-oxygen copper rods. Our company boasts advanced production equipment and mature production technology, offering top-notch pre-sales quality and after-sales service. Since its establishment, the company has adhered to innovation-driven development, introducing advanced production equipment and processes from domestic and overseas markets in line with the requirements of innovation, efficiency, quality, and safety. Upholding the principles of quality first and service first, the company focuses on products as its core and customers as its bridge, striving to collaborate with you to create high-quality and high-standard products. Guided by the quality policy of "integrity-based, customer-first, united and pragmatic, quality and innovative," the company's eternal business philosophy is "copper products, golden reputation," with the eternal pursuit of a "win-win" outcome with customers. We sincerely hope to collaborate with you for mutual development and a brighter future. Jiangxi Xindehai New Material Technology Co., Ltd. , located in the Industrial Park, Jintan Town, Jishui County, Ji'an City, Jiangxi Province, was established in July 2024 with a registered capital of 50 million yuan and occupies an area of over 70 mu. The up-cast oxygen-free copper rod production line was commissioned and put into operation in October 2024, with an annual production capacity of 40,000 mt of up-cast oxygen-free copper rods. The company is currently preparing to construct production lines for copper-based projects such as continuous casting and rolling low-oxygen copper rods and anode plates, as well as aluminum-based product production lines for aluminum ingots, aluminum billets, and deoxidized aluminum. These projects are expected to be put into production successively in 2025. Upon full commissioning, the company will achieve an annual production capacity of 150,000 mt of copper-based products and 50,000 mt of aluminum-based products. Guided by the quality policy of "integrity-based, customer-first, united and pragmatic, quality and innovative," the company's eternal business philosophy is "copper products, golden reputation," with the eternal pursuit of a "win-win" outcome with customers. We sincerely hope to collaborate with you for mutual development and a brighter future. ◆ Contact Information ◆ Tianjin Xinhong Renewable Resources Co., Ltd. Sales Department: Liu Runliang, 177 2012 3999 Procurement Department: Cai Rujian, 138 2041 6617 Jiangxi Baoqi New Material Technology Co., Ltd. Cui Deliang, 177 7781 3383 Zeng Xiaoqiang, 137 6712 8719 Jiangxi Xindehai New Material Technology Co., Ltd. Liu Runliang, 177 2012 3999 Click here to participate immediately 2025 SMM (Inaugural) North China Cable Industry Conference SMM Conference Contact Person Li Haiyang 135 2411 0203 lihaiyang@smm.cn

[SMM Analysis: Rebounding Copper Prices Boost Downstream Restocking Sentiment, but Losses Widen for Secondary Copper Rod Enterprises, Dampening Production Willingness] According to SMM survey data, the operating rate of secondary copper rod was 29.03% this week, down 3.05 percentage points WoW and 18.42 percentage points YoY. Meanwhile, the average price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,328 yuan/mt this week, widening by 243 yuan/mt MoM. In addition, the average discount of secondary copper rod in Jiangxi against copper futures was 734 yuan/mt, widening by 306 yuan/mt MoM...