The most-traded BAI copper 2607 contract opened at 94,280 yuan/mt today, quickly peaking at 94,880 yuan/mt before swinging wildly. After the day session opened, copper prices’ center plunged straight down and then fluctuated downward, hitting an intraday low of 93,090 yuan/mt near the close, eventually settling at 93,380 yuan/mt, a drop of 0.61%. Open interest fell to 11,035 lots, down 152 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume came to 8,286 lots, signaling long liquidation. On the macro front, Broadcom’s AI guidance fell short of expectations, cooling trading sentiment in the AI sector and weighing on AI-linked copper prices. A wait-and-see sentiment intensified as the market awaited tonight’s non-farm payrolls data — the first such report since Warsh took office. The market focused on the release of tonight's non-farm payrolls data, the first such release since Warsh took office. On the fundamental side, supply tightness persisted for high-quality spot copper, with few low-priced circulating sources. Combined with steadily widening import losses, contracted inflows from overseas arrivals limited domestic supply growth. On the demand side, downstream just-in-time procurement willingness recovered as copper prices pulled back, and spot purchasing saw some pick-up. The most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract settled at 105,150 yuan/mt. Given that the most-traded BAI copper 2607 contract settled at 93,380 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 105,519 yuan/mt, resulting in a price spread of -369 between the SHFE copper 2607 contract and the BAI copper contract. The spread remained inverted and widened from the previous day.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2605 contract opened at 90,550 yuan/mt, touching a low of 90,460 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session before the center fluctuated upward. It touched a high of 91,580 yuan/mt near the close and ultimately settled at 91,460 yuan/mt, up 0.78%. Open interest stood at 6,834 lots, an increase of 178 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume was 3,856 lots, a decrease of 2,382 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, market optimism grew over the prospect of the Middle East conflict nearing an end, as Pakistan's mediation representatives arrived in Tehran, and the Trump administration also released signals that a US-Iran deal could be reached, improving expectations for passage through the key Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. Meanwhile, Trump urged Powell to step down as soon as possible, accelerated the confirmation process for Fed nominee Warsh, and stated that interest rates are expected to be cut after he takes office. Overall, expectations for a new round of US-Iran peace talks were in line with market consensus, and copper prices stabilized accordingly. Fundamentals side, supply side, imported copper arrivals maintained the previous pace, while domestic copper arrivals remained relatively low. Demand side, downstream enterprises mainly made just-in-time procurement, restocking on an as-needed basis. Inventory side, as of Thursday, April 16, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide fell 11.46% WoW from the previous Thursday, with total inventories up 49,400 mt YoY. Inventories continued destocking for the fifth consecutive week. The SHFE copper 2605 contract closed at 102,680 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2605 contract price of 91,460 yuan/mt, the after-tax price was 103,350 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2605 contract and BC copper was -670 yuan/mt, showing an inverted spread that widened from the previous day.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2605 contract opened at 88,200 yuan/mt, touched a high of 88,630 yuan/mt, and then copper prices' center kept declining. At the start of the daytime session, it touched a low of 87,410 yuan/mt, and after the afternoon session opened, the center rose, ultimately closing at 88,510 yuan/mt, up 1.37%. Open interest stood at 6,515 lots, down 33 lots from the previous trading day, and trading volume reached 3,879 lots, up 985 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, interception of oil revenues linked to Iran, and threatened to clear Iranian mines; Iran allowed non-military vessels to pass but rejected three major US demands including "equal sharing of strait interests." Diplomatic channels between the two sides have not yet been closed. The Middle East situation continued to evolve, and market reactions to geopolitical tensions turned mediocre. Fundamentals side, supply side, arrivals of domestic sources decreased somewhat, while imported sources maintained stable arrivals, and the supply landscape tightened somewhat. Demand side, downstream buyers still primarily made just-in-time procurement, and overall consumption slowed down slightly compared with the previous period. As of Monday, April 13, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions nationwide decreased 12.52% WoW from the previous Monday, marking five consecutive weeks of destocking, providing momentum for copper prices to rise. The SHFE copper 2605 contract closed at 99,610 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2605 contract price of 88,510 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 100,016 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2605 contract and BC copper was -406 yuan/mt, showing an inversion that widened from the previous day.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 91,030 yuan/mt, fluctuated downward at the start of the session to hit a low of 90,280 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward during the day with the price center rising to approach 92,530 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 92,280 yuan/mt, up 1.24%. Open interest reached 5,564 lots, an increase of 430 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 6,984 lots, showing an increase in positions by bulls. On the macro front, U.S.-Iran negotiations made positive progress, but differences remain between the two sides, and the market continues to monitor uncertainties regarding the negotiation process and tariff policies. Combined with support from the precious metals market, these factors provided a bullish influence on copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply continues to increase, with ample supplementary supply from imports; demand is currently in the post-Chinese New Year resumption cycle, as downstream enterprises gradually resume production and consumption slowly recovers. The SHFE copper 2604 contract settled at 103,920 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract price of 92,280 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is 104,276 yuan/mt, resulting in a price spread of -356 between the SHFE copper 2603 contract and BC copper. The inverted spread persisted but narrowed compared to the previous day.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2603 contract opened at 91,130 yuan/mt. It fluctuated downward at the start of the session. After reaching an intraday high of 91,350 yuan/mt, the center of copper prices gradually shifted lower, touching a low of 90,100 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward and finally closed at 90,850 yuan/mt, up 0.2%. Open interest fell to 789 lots, a decrease of 1,274 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 4,036 lots, indicating a reduction in bearish positions. On the macro front, reduced uncertainty in US trade policy improved market sentiment, benefiting copper prices; US military buildup ahead of a new round of talks with Iran and turmoil in Mexico supported strong performances in gold and silver, also providing a boost to copper prices. Fundamentally, supply side, domestic and imported copper arrived steadily, leading to ample supply; demand side, downstream enterprises gradually resumed operations after the Chinese New Year, with consumption slowly recovering. The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 102,260 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2603 contract price of 90,850 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is 102,660 yuan/mt, resulting in a price spread of -400 between the SHFE copper 2603 contract and BC copper. The spread remained inverted and continued to widen.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2603 contract opened at 90,300 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, the price center gradually moved down, testing a low of 89,810 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward. After the daytime session opened, it fluctuated upward again, reaching a high of 91,230 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 91,050 yuan/mt, up 1.04%. Open interest fell to 2,063 lots, down 543 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 3,676 lots, indicating bear position reduction. On the macro front, the US Supreme Court ruled that large-scale tariff hikes are illegal, easing market risk aversion sentiment and pushing the US dollar index lower, which is positive for copper prices. On the fundamentals side, imported copper continued to arrive, keeping supply loose; downstream demand gradually resumed after the holiday, with consumption slowly recovering. The SHFE copper 2603 contract closed at 102,460 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2603 contract price of 91,050 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is 102,886 yuan/mt, resulting in a price spread of -426 between the SHFE copper 2603 contract and BC copper. The spread remained inverted and widened significantly.