Glencore produced 397,000 metric tons of copper in the first half of 2026, marking a 15% increase from 343,900 tons in H1 2025. The growth was primarily driven by higher mining volumes and improved ore grades at its African operations alongside stronger grades at the Antamina mine in Peru. Following the strong operational start, Glencore maintained its full-year copper production guidance at 810,000 to 870,000 tons. The company noted that H2 performance will be bolstered by higher recovery rates and improved mining output at the Collahuasi operation in Chile. Meanwhile, Glencore’s marketing unit delivered exceptional results, generating approximately $3.3 billion in adjusted core earnings (EBIT) in H1 alone. This puts the trading division on track to approach or exceed the top end of its full-year guidance range of $2.3 billion to $3.5 billion. In contrast, cobalt production dropped 46% year-over-year to 10,200 tons due to ongoing export quotas in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Glencore strategically prioritized copper processing, holding back cobalt volumes until export restrictions ease. Full H1 financial results are scheduled for release on August 5.

[SMM Copper Cathode Rod Flash] In the medium and long term, as overseas infrastructure and new energy projects continue to be rolled out, exports of copper cathode rod and wire enjoy demand support, and total exports are expected to remain high. However, the concentrated release of earlier orders and intensified competition among peers, which have squeezed profits, mean that H2 export growth is likely to pull back. Risks such as new copper processing capacity built outside China and fluctuations in the foreign trade environment still cannot be ignored.

From January to June 2026, China's total export volume of copper wire rod reached 166,600 mt, up 97.50% YoY, a figure that already surpassed the full-year level of 2024 and nearly doubled the export volume in the same period of 2025. Demand from new energy and power grid infrastructure outside China was released in a concentrated manner, and the export destination structure underwent significant adjustments. Saudi Arabia jumped to the top export destination with a YoY growth rate of 755.70%, while the Philippines became the only market among the top ten to register negative growth. Total: A New Level Achieved in Two Years, Export Volume Reaches a New Magnitude From January to June 2024, China's exports of copper wire rod were approximately 60,400 mt, rising to 84,400 mt in the same period of 2025, up 39.57% YoY. In the same period of 2026, they further jumped to 166,600 mt, up 97.50% YoY. In just two years, the export scale crossed from the 60,000 mt level to the 160,000 mt level. Behind this growth is the continuous expansion of copper consumption driven by global power grid renovations and new energy deployment, alongside the accelerating pace of China's copper cathode rod capacity export. Country Flow: Saudi Arabia Becomes the Largest Source of Growth, ASEAN Carries Nearly 60% of Net Growth In absolute terms, the top five export destinations in H1 2026 were Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines, in that order. Saudi Arabia alone contributed roughly one-third of the growth, becoming the largest marginal factor for exports during the period. Currently, Saudi Arabia's downstream industry chains such as cables, electrical equipment, and new energy supporting sectors are rapidly expanding. As the global capacity transfer of "China copper rod, overseas wire and cable" continues to accelerate, large-scale infrastructure and new energy projects outside China are implemented in a concentrated manner, effectively boosting local wire and cable consumption; coupled with the continued release of power grid upgrade demand in various countries, China's copper processing enterprises are actively exploring markets outside China, and these multiple forces together drove a sharp increase in exports in H1. At the same time, demand from multiple emerging markets surged simultaneously. Indonesia's exports skyrocketed 536.74% YoY, India's rose 35.71% YoY, and Singapore's increased 71.32% YoY; Australia's soared 860.63% YoY, and coupled with a 107.28% YoY increase in exports to other countries, China's copper cathode rod export diversification continued to advance, reducing reliance on any single region. The primary driver behind this high export growth was the accelerated capacity transfer of "China's copper rod + overseas wire and cable," concentrated demand from large projects boosting local wire and cable consumption, alongside faster power infrastructure construction in various countries, and domestic processing enterprises actively expanding overseas channels—collectively driving the sharp export increase in H1. Trade Mode: Processing Structure Iterative Shift, Share of Processing Trade with Supplied Materials Edges Up By trade mode, the export structure of copper cathode wire rod saw notable adjustments in H1 2026. During this period, the share of processing trade with imported materials in exports pulled back to 57.76%, while that of processing trade with supplied materials rose to 32.93%. Compared with the same period of 2025, the industry’s exports were highly reliant on the processing trade with imported materials model, when its share was as high as 70% and processing trade with supplied materials was only 14%. The structural shift resulted from changes in export order patterns, coupled with flexible adjustments by domestic enterprises in their order-taking structure to actively meet the differentiated procurement needs of overseas clients, driving diversification in export trade modes. This iterative transformation of the trade landscape also forced export enterprises to rethink their operational approaches, adopting differentiated arrangements in raw material procurement, capital turnover, and customs declaration and settlement, etc., for different trade modes to ensure risk control. Looking ahead, the steady implementation of medium and long-term infrastructure and new energy projects outside China is providing sustained solid support for copper cathode rod exports, while China's copper processing enterprises continue to expand their export deployment, giving the industry's export fundamentals strong resilience. However, affected by the front-loading of orders in H1 and the sharp rise in the export base, coupled with the increasing number of companies entering the export arena, overseas market competition has intensified, putting further pressure on industry export profit margins to narrow; overall export growth in H2 is expected to moderate. In addition, potential risks still need attention: new overseas copper processing capacity gradually coming on stream is diverting import demand, and international trade uncertainties will continue to disrupt the pace of overseas purchasing orders. In summary, China's total copper cathode rod exports in H2 are expected to stay high, with the export market's center of gravity continuing to tilt toward the Middle East, while the divergent demand pattern in Southeast Asia persists.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $13,638.5/mt, consolidated at lows initially before its center moved higher, then touched a high of $13,681.5/mt. Afterwards, the copper price center fluctuated lower, dipping to $13,605.5/mt near the session’s end, and finally settled at $13,611.5/mt, up 0.34%. Trading volume was 12,600 lots, open interest was 248,000 lots, an increase of 728 lots from the previous trading day, driven by bullish position-building. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 104,600 yuan/mt, dipped to 104,540 yuan/mt right at the start, then its center rose to touch a high of 104,310 yuan/mt, before moving lower to finally settle at 104,630 yuan/mt, down 0.1%. Trading volume was 25,000 lots, open interest was 207,000 lots, a decrease of 3,481 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bullish position reduction.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, the current tight supply of available spot cargoes remains unchanged. After low-priced sources were quickly absorbed intraday, suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm re-emerged, with the premium rebounding to around 300 yuan/mt, indicating strong support from below. According to SMM, after a slight correction in SHFE copper prices, end-use demand emerged, and orders for some copper processing enterprises increased, with end-users mostly placing orders around 104,500 yuan/mt. In terms of supply, some LME cancelled warrants have already been shipped to China and are expected to arrive gradually around next week; the actual supply remains to be observed. Overall, with low inventory, support from the backwardation structure, and downstream dip-buying, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE 2608 contract are expected to maintain a premium next week, though the overall center may edge down slightly. Attention should be paid to the actual impact of import arrival pace on spot circulation.

[SMM Analysis: Copper Prices Remain Elevated, but Why Has Overseas Copper Scrap Supply Yet to Increase Significantly?] Despite elevated copper prices, overseas copper scrap supply remains tight. Earlier inventories were largely released from Q4 2025 to Q2 2026, while new scrap generation is slow. High funding costs, stronger local absorption and US-Iran-related shipping delays have further limited tradable supply, supporting payabilities.