Looking ahead to tomorrow, copper prices edged up slightly today. Although buying and selling sentiment rebounded, it remained weak overall. In the morning session, suppliers quoted from parity to a premium of 10 yuan/mt, but actual transactions were sluggish. In the second session, prices were continuously lowered to around a discount of 20 yuan/mt before deals could be concluded, reflecting downstream users' limited acceptance of current copper prices and reluctance to chase higher prices. The inter-month Contango spread widened slightly but stayed in the range of around 100 yuan/mt, with suppliers showing relatively strong willingness to hold prices firm. Close attention should be paid to warrant outflows tomorrow. If there is a concentrated release, it will put pressure on spot premiums; if outflows are limited, then, supported by the spread structure, there is limited room for the discount to widen further. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between weak demand and uncertainty over warrant outflows, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, today copper prices edged up. Buying and selling sentiment rebounded but remained relatively weak overall. Suppliers quoted from parity to a premium of 10 yuan/mt in early trading, but actual trading was sluggish. In the second session, quotes were continuously lowered to around a discount of 20 yuan/mt before deals could be concluded, reflecting limited acceptance of current copper prices by downstream buyers and insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. The Contango spread between monthly contracts widened slightly but remained around 100 yuan/mt, and suppliers showed relatively strong willingness to hold prices firm. Close attention should be paid to the outflow of warrants tomorrow. If released in concentration, it will weigh on spot premiums; if the outflow is limited, then supported by the spread structure, there is limited room for further decline in the discount. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between weak demand and uncertain warrant outflows, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

SMM June 17 news: Today, spot Guangdong #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 210 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 150 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 90 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,500 yuan/mt, up 565 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,410 yuan/mt, up 565 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory, after two consecutive increases, finally declined today, mainly due to reduced arrivals and increased shipments. As copper prices rebounded today and some downstream producers had production cuts during the Dragon Boat Festival, their pre-holiday restocking interest was not strong. Suppliers could only maintain yesterday's quotes to sell, but transactions were poor. Today, the purchasing sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong stood at 2.21, down 0.07 from the previous trading day, while the selling sentiment stood at 2.55, up 0.1 from the previous trading day (historical data can be accessed by logging into the database). Overall, pre-holiday restocking interest was not strong, spot trades were moderate, and no improvement is expected tomorrow.

Spot #1 copper cathode in North China was quoted at a discount of 200-140 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 170 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 105,155 yuan/mt, up 575 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,744/mt, dipped to $13,725/mt shortly after the opening, then its price center fluctuated upward to touch $13,822.5/mt, followed by wild swings and finally closed at $13,796.5/mt, up 0.61%. Trading volume reached 16,600 lots, open interest stood at 263,000 lots, a decrease of 3,509 lots from the previous trading day, manifested as bearish position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 105,490 yuan/mt, hitting a high of 105,700 yuan/mt right after the opening, then its price center fluctuated downward all the way, touching a low of 105,060 yuan/mt near the end of trading, and finally closed at 105,210 yuan/mt, down 0.14%. Trading volume reached 25,000 lots, open interest stood at 147,000 lots, a decrease of 1,715 lots from the previous trading day, manifested as bullish position reduction.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper prices are expected to rise intraday and remain at a relatively high level. Coupled with the futures contract rollover, trading activity is likely to be muted, reflecting that the current price level is significantly suppressing real demand. After the rollover, the market will officially price around the 2607 contract, and close attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants. However, open interest for the SHFE copper 2606 contract currently stands at approximately 5,500 lots, indicating limited delivery participation. The concentrated release of warrants is therefore expected to exert relatively limited additional pressure on spot discounts. Supported by delivery-related dynamics, Shanghai spot copper discounts did not see a sharp decline. But if copper prices remain at current highs and demand fails to improve effectively, spot premiums may come under downward pressure.