According to the SMM survey, in July 2026, the operating rate of mainstream domestic wire and cable enterprises reached 69.82%, down 2.4 percentage points MoM and 2.79 percentage points YoY. Pressured by both copper prices consolidating at highs and the downstream entering the traditional consumption off-season, new orders weakened, leading to a pullback in production loads.

Looking ahead to next week's operating rate for wire and cable enterprises, the industry remains in the traditional consumption off-season, and the renewed rise in copper prices further dampened downstream order signing willingness. Enterprises will continue to lower production loads. SMM expects that next week (July 31–August 6), the copper wire and cable operating rate will decline 1.5 percentage points WoW to 64.44%, and drop 1.5 percentage points YoY.

July copper cathode production was recorded at 1.1268 million mt, down 1.59% MoM.

July SMM Copper Cathode Production...

On July 31, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was reported at -$159.37/dmt, down $4.61/dmt from the previous -$154.76/dmt. In July, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (monthly) was -$148.28/dmt, down $26.84/dmt from June's -$121.44/dmt. The payable indicator for 20%-grade domestic ore was reported at 98.5%-99.5%, up 0.25% from the prior period. This week, the copper concentrates spot market saw more index-based deals, with some mines conducting tenders. In terms of spot deals, there were five index-deducted transactions this week, two of which used only the SMM index as a benchmark. A trader sold 10,000 mt of clean ore at the SMM index minus $20/dmt to a smelter for September shipment, QP: M+1/M+5; a trader sold 10,000 mt of Sierra Gorda at the index minus $23/dmt to a smelter for September shipment, QP: M+1/M+5; a trader sold 10,000 mt of South American clean ore at the SMM and FM index flat minus $20/dmt to a smelter for September shipment, QP: M+1/M+5. There were market rumors that a trader sold 20,000 mt of Q4 clean ore at the index minus $20 to a smelter, of which 10,000 mt of Carmen ore with silver at 20g was priced at 90%. Also, rumors that a trader sold 20,000-30,000 mt of Q4 cargoes at the index minus $25/dmt. In terms of mine tenders, the results of a large mine's tender were out, with market rumors that 20,000 mt of HVC was traded on the smelter side at -$220/dmt for September-October shipment, QP: M+0/M+4 (buyer's option); 20,000 mt of HVC was traded on the trader side at around -$275/dmt for September-October shipment, QP: M+0/M+4 (buyer's option); additionally, 10,000 mt of QB was traded on the trader side at prices ranging from -$275/dmt to -$280/dmt for October shipment, QP: M+0/M+4 (buyer's option). Furthermore, 10,000 mt of BISHA and around 2,000 mt of Black Mountain for September-October shipment were tendered, with the results currently unknown. Overall, this week's spot deals continued to be mainly in the index-minus format, with deductions remaining at deep levels; mine tender prices fell further. Smelters maintained restocking demand but remained relatively limited in accepting deeply negative-priced cargoes. On July 29, First Quantum Minerals said it was accelerating preparations to restart the Cobre Panama copper mine in Panama, having already begun processing stockpiled ore in advance and added around 1,000 jobs. The company stated that formal negotiations with the Panamanian government over the future arrangements of the mine are gradually approaching. In May this year, the company started the first of three grinding lines, processing approximately 2.1 million mt of stockpiled ore in Q2 and producing 3,216 mt of copper concentrates. Cobre Panama currently has about 38 million mt of stockpiled ore, expected to recover approximately 70,000 mt of copper, supporting about 12 months of production at the current processing pace. The company maintained its 2026 copper production guidance of 30,000 to 40,000 mt, all from stockpiled ore processing. Meanwhile, the number of mine employees increased from about 2,350 in early April to approximately 3,000 at end-June, to support equipment commissioning, maintenance, and operational preparations. Over half of the new hires came from communities near the mine site, with female employees accounting for about 17% of new recruits. Currently, the Panamanian government is studying various options for restarting the mine, including establishing a state-owned mining company to jointly operate the mine with First Quantum, or a model where First Quantum holds a 60% to 65% interest and the government holds the remainder. The company had previously suspended the $20 billion international arbitration against the Panamanian government, creating conditions for continued negotiations between the two parties. On July 29, Glencore released its H1 2026 production report, showing that its own-sourced copper production in H1 was 397,000 mt, up 15% YoY from 343,900 mt. The production growth was mainly driven by increased mined volumes and improved feed grades in African copper operations, along with higher grades at the Antamina copper mine in Peru, partially offset by the planned closure of the Mount Isa copper mine in Australia in July 2025. Glencore maintained its 2026 own-sourced copper production guidance of 810,000 to 870,000 mt, with approximately 53% of annual copper production expected to be released in H2. The company stated that ore recovery rates and mining performance at the Collahuasi copper mine are expected to improve in H2, supporting a QoQ increase in copper production. Furthermore, although Glencore completed the sale of the Kidd Mine on June 1, reducing annual copper production by about 11,000 mt, the company has not lowered its full-year guidance. On July 28, Rio Tinto announced its H1 2026 results, with underlying earnings reaching $6.85 billion, up 43% YoY, the highest level for the same period in nearly four years. Within this, the copper and aluminum businesses, driven by demand from electrification, artificial intelligence, and the energy transition, together contributed about 56% of profit, surpassing the iron ore business for the first time to become the company's primary earnings driver. By business, copper EBITDA surged 84% YoY to $5.7 billion; iron ore EBITDA was $6.8 billion, down 1% YoY. The company stated that copper production growth and improved production efficiency in H1 were key drivers of earnings growth, while also benefiting from higher copper prices. As of July 31, 2026, SMM 11-port copper concentrates inventory stood at 664,400 mt in physical content, up 2,900 mt in physical content from July 24. The increases mainly came from Jinzhou Port and Qingdao Port, up 30,000 mt and 10,000 mt WoW, respectively; the decreases mainly came from Nanjing Port and Qinzhou Port, down 10,000 mt and 19,000 mt WoW, respectively. Overall inventory was basically flat.

SMM July 31 Today at 11:30, the futures closing price was 105,660 yuan/mt, up 620 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average spot premium was 260 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt MoM from the previous trading day. Today, copper scrap prices rose 200 yuan/mt MoM. The sales sentiment index for copper scrap rose to 2.48, and the procurement sentiment index fell to 1.98. The price spread between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,523 yuan/mt, up 391 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,440 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices moved higher at the end of the week. Copper scrap suppliers sold into strength, but constrained by the Jiangsu region, the policy ceased to be implemented. Secondary copper rod enterprises suspended production to observe the situation, causing market demand for tax-exclusive copper scrap to decline further, while tax-inclusive supply continued to remain tight. In certain regions, for copper scrap with 13% VAT, the invoice tax rate has risen to 11-12%.