Spot #1 copper cathode prices in North China were quoted at an average discount of 60 yuan/mt against the front-month contract today, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 99,020 yuan/mt, down 1,240 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,724.5/mt. In early trading, it fluctuated upward to a high of $12,829.5/mt, after which the center of copper prices shifted straight downward to a low of $12,721/mt. It then fluctuated upward in a pullback and finally closed at $12,780/mt, down 1.07%. Trading volume reached 17,000 lots, and open interest stood at 293,000 lots, down 8,255 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to longs reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 99,120 yuan/mt. In early trading, it rose to 99,530 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward all the way to a low of 98,900 yuan/mt. Afterwards, the center of copper prices moved upward and finally closed at 99,140 yuan/mt, down 0.92%. Trading volume reached 27,700 lots, and open interest stood at 177,000 lots, down 1,993 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to longs reducing positions.

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Intraday trading in the spot market improved somewhat from yesterday. Suppliers still showed willingness to hold prices firm, but some suppliers’ sell-offs temporarily weighed on the market, causing spot premiums to decline somewhat in the second trading session. Coupled with the narrowing Contango price spread between nearby futures contracts, suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouses weakened somewhat, and spot premiums remained under pressure. Demand side, as copper prices fell, downstream enterprises may have had some restocking demand, but the current copper prices had limited actual appeal. Supply side, social inventory remained at a high level, but spot cargo available for actual circulation was relatively tight. Some warrants were already seen flowing out during the day, which may ease some pressure on spot supply. Meanwhile, the import window remained open, and expectations for subsequent inflows of cargo from outside China increased. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, Shanghai spot copper is expected to maintain the current discount structure overall tomorrow.

SMM Nickel News, March 18: Macro and Market News: (1) "Fed Chairman whisperer" Nick Timiraos said the US Fed may be more inclined to remain silent this week. But forecasts force them to sketch out a path. Two former Fed Chairmen told me they hoped to avoid forecasting interest rate cuts in the near term. Whether current officials will adopt the same stance has become the core focus of this meeting, with both hawks and doves potentially sticking to their positions by pointing to the same shock. (2) US President Trump again expressed his personal dissatisfaction with NATO at the White House on March 17 local time. Trump said whether the US should withdraw from NATO "is indeed something we should consider." Spot Market: On March 18, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 1,950 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,550 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the range for mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China was -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract continued to fluctuate downward during the session and closed the morning session at 135,110 yuan/mt, down 1.49. Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices and intensified inflation concerns. The market expects the US Fed may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, while the US dollar continued to strengthen, creating clear pressure on nickel prices. Although macro pressure remained significant, the industrial support logic has not changed. The market is still concerned that supply of nickel intermediate products tightens. Short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt range.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Briefing] Polysilicon: The quoted price for N-type recharging polysilicon was 42-49 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices continued to decline recently, mainly affected by wafer price cuts and market sentiment. At present, low-priced polysilicon has already fallen below the cost line of some manufacturers, and the willingness to hold quotes firm has strengthened somewhat. The upstream market was also still watching wafer price moves. Wafer: In the market, 18X wafer prices were 1.00-1.05 yuan/piece, 210RN wafer prices were 1.1-1.15 yuan/piece, and 210N wafer prices were 1.3-1.35 yuan/piece. Wafer prices remained stable. Current selling prices have already fallen below cash cost, so the likelihood of another sharp price cut was relatively small.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 88,450 yuan/mt. After the opening, it hovered at highs and then climbed to 88,940 yuan/mt, before its center moved all the way downward and fell to 87,730 yuan/mt near the close. It finally settled at 87,780 yuan/mt, down 0.37%. Open interest stood at 5,599 lots, down 113 lots from the previous trading day, and trading volume was 3,458 lots, down 1,917 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, Israel launched large-scale attacks in Tehran, Iran and Beirut, Lebanon, while a tanker anchored in the Gulf of Oman was hit by an unidentified projectile. Oil prices rose, intensifying market concerns over US inflation and weighing on copper prices. Fundamentally, arrivals of both imported and domestic cargoes remained stable, and overall supply was ample. Demand side, the slight increase in copper prices somewhat suppressed downstream purchase willingness, with buying maintained at just-in-time procurement levels. The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 99,340 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract price of 87,780 yuan/mt, its tax-inclusive price was 99,191 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was 149 yuan/mt, and the spread remained in a contango structure, narrowing from the previous day.