Today, spot #1 copper cathode in North China against the front-month contract was quoted with average premiums ranging from 40 yuan/mt to 130 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 85 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 105,815 yuan/mt, up 465 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

This week, spot copper premiums in Shandong remained stable. As of Thursday, the average spot price was quoted at a premium of 90 yuan/mt. During the week, copper prices stayed high, downstream demand remained sluggish, and market transactions were dominated by long-term contracts with limited scattered spot trades. Looking ahead to next week, maintenance at smelters in the province will conclude and regional spot supply will recover. However, the end-use market remains in the off-season, and Shandong spot prices are expected to have some downside room.

[SMM Copper Cathode Rod Flash] This week, the operating rate of copper cathode rod was down 2.49 percentage points WoW. High copper prices, coupled with the traditional consumption off-season, led to weak downstream demand and insufficient growth in new orders. Enterprises' production continued to shrink, and the purchase willingness from end-users of wire and cable and enamelled wire was significantly suppressed.

The operating rate of China's major copper cathode rod enterprises this week (Jul 24 - Jul 30) was 60.07%, down 2.49 percentage points WoW, up 2.49 percentage points from expectations, and down 11.66 percentage points YoY. Copper prices fluctuated at highs, coupled with the industry entering the traditional consumption off-season, downstream demand was generally weak, end-user rigid demand was insufficient, new orders growth for copper cathode rod enterprises was limited, and production continued to shrink. Downstream wire and cable and enamelled wire industries were also under pressure. Off-season sentiment combined with high copper prices suppressed purchase willingness, orders continued to shrink, further weighing on the operating load of copper cathode rods. Inventory side, earlier market raw material purchasing sentiment was weak, enterprise raw material inventories remained low for a long period; this week, some enterprises conducted restocking to meet rigid demand, raw material inventory up 1.77 percentage points WoW; but downstream willingness to pick up goods showed no improvement, persistently weak demand led to finished product inventory up 1.59 percentage points WoW. Looking ahead to next week (Jul 31 - Aug 6), enterprises that underwent maintenance earlier will gradually resume production, but some other enterprises will start production cuts, overall operating rate movement is limited. SMM expects the operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises next week to fall 0.35 percentage points WoW to 59.72%.

The enamelled wire industry was in its traditional off-season, with weak support from end-user rigid demand. Along with sustained high copper prices, downstream fear of high prices persisted and enthusiasm for placing orders was insufficient, causing both operating rates and new orders to continue declining this week.

On the macro front , global markets this week were primarily driven by US-Iran tensions and the US Fed's policy meeting. Early in the week, both the US and Iran temporarily sent signals of de-escalation, easing market concerns about rising energy prices and inflationary pressure. A recovery in risk appetite pushed copper prices higher. The market then entered a wait-and-see phase ahead of the Fed meeting, where the Fed ultimately held rates steady. The statement was broadly neutral, and market expectations for further rate hikes within the year were somewhat dampened. However, Trump once again stated he would take action against Iran in response to attacks on US troops in the Middle East, causing geopolitical conflict risks to re-escalate and capping further upside for copper prices. As of 9:30 am Beijing time on July 30, 2026, LME copper hit a weekly low of $13,570/mt before rebounding to a high of $13,802/mt, a rebound of $232/mt, or roughly 1.71%. The most-traded SHFE copper contract hit a low of 104,356 yuan/mt before rebounding to 105,530 yuan/mt, up approximately 1.12%. On the fundamentals side , the tight supply situation for China's copper cathode eased somewhat. As of July 30, SMM copper inventories in major Chinese regions rose to 111,900 mt, up 2,700 mt WoW, with the previous continuous destocking trend shifting to accumulation. Additionally, the ongoing destocking and high level of cancelled warrants on the LME, along with tight spot supply outside China, provided significant support for LME copper's downside resilience. Supply side, domestic and imported cargo arrivals edged up recently, with imported copper from brands such as Peru large plate, ESOX, and Myanmar circulating in the market, supplementing the previously tight spot supply. Demand side remained under pressure from the traditional consumption off-season and high copper prices, with downstream mainly maintaining just-in-time procurement. While some restocking demand was released at lower prices following the pullback in copper, a gap persisted between end-user order prices and actual transaction prices, keeping the overall improvement in demand limited. Regarding secondary copper, the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap stayed high, but with sufficient raw material inventories at secondary copper rod enterprises and a slowdown in downstream cargo pick-up, overall purchasing willingness in the market remained subdued. Looking ahead to next week , macro attention will remain on the progress of the US-Iran conflict, as well as the impact of US employment and inflation data on Fed policy expectations. Should Middle East tensions escalate further, energy prices and inflation expectations could rebound, putting pressure on risk assets. Fundamentals wise, imported copper is expected to continue arriving, and domestic spot supply may increase further. Meanwhile, the consumption off-season has not yet ended, and downstream appetite for high-priced cargoes remains limited. However, domestic inventories are still low, and the backwardation structure will also limit the downside room for copper prices. Overall, LME copper is expected to trade in the $13,600–13,880/mt range next week, with the most-traded SHFE copper contract moving between 104,000–106,000 yuan/mt, likely consolidating on a subdued note.