SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $11,816/mt. After dipping to $11,798/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,395/mt, then hovered at highs, and finally closed at $12,221/mt, up 3.27%. Trading volume reached 52,000 lots, and open interest stood at 292,000 lots, down 944 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,010 yuan/mt. After the opening, its center moved higher to a high of 95,900 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs. Near the close, it dipped to 94,530 yuan/mt and finally closed at 93,840 yuan/mt, up 2.12%. Trading volume reached 120,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 6,741 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions throughout the day.

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain in a tug-of-war. Copper prices declined somewhat during the day, and downstream enterprises showed stronger restocking sentiment, but considering the heavy concentrated purchases already made last week, actual incremental buying was relatively limited. Inventory side, according to SMM, combined social inventory in Shanghai and Jiangsu fell by about 41,600 mt, showing a sharp destocking trend. During the day, supplier quotations were steady at first and then declined, with suppliers actively selling as premiums rebounded, and the sell-off put pressure on spot prices. In addition, some suppliers had already quoted against the SHFE copper 2604 contract using cargoes with invoices dated next month during the day, indirectly reflecting moderate sales volume within the month and strong willingness to sell among suppliers. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between faster destocking and supplier sell-offs, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain at the current level tomorrow.

News on March 20, 2026: Today, the average warrant price rose by $1/mt from the previous trading day and closed at $48/mt (price range: $42-54/mt); the average B/L price rose by $1/mt from the previous trading day and closed at $47/mt (price range: $41-53/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) rose by $2/mt from the previous trading day and closed at $28/mt (price range: $21-35/mt), with quotations referring to cargoes arriving from late March to mid-April. During the day, spot transaction premiums continued to rise, and suppliers actively sought bonded warrants or B/L scheduled to arrive in the near term. It was heard that a small volume of ER copper B/L arriving in late March was offered at $50-60/mt, QP April; EQ B/L arriving in late March and early April was offered at $35, while EQ B/L arriving in mid-to-late April was offered at $35/mt and traded at $30/mt, with both April and May QPs available. General ER copper warrants for delivery within this week were offered at $50/mt, QP April.

Yesterday’s night session, copper prices opened lower with a gap, and some enterprises placed orders to restock at low levels. Intraday procurement demand increased somewhat, but given the concentrated replenishment on the previous day, actual incremental buying was limited. From the market structure perspective, the import arbitrage window widened slightly, and expectations for subsequent inflows of cargoes from outside China increased, which may put some pressure on the supply side. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between faster destocking and supplier sell-offs, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Copper prices opened lower with a gap in the night session yesterday, and some enterprises placed orders to restock at low levels. Intraday purchasing demand increased somewhat, but given that restocking had already been concentrated the previous day, the actual increase in new procurement was limited. According to data released by SHFE on March 19, SHFE copper warrants fell by 12,200 mt during the day, confirming that after copper prices pulled back, downstream enthusiasm for buying the dip picked up, and the center of spot premiums moved higher accordingly. From the market structure perspective, the import profit window widened slightly, and expectations for subsequent inflows of cargo from outside China strengthened, which may put some pressure on the supply side. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between faster destocking and supplier selling, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain at the current level tomorrow.

News dated March 18, 2026: Today, the average warrant price was unchanged from the previous trading day, closing at $47/mt (price range: $42-52/mt); the average B/L price was unchanged from the previous trading day, closing at $46/mt (price range: $41-51/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was unchanged from the previous trading day, closing at $25/mt (price range: $19-31/mt), with quotations referenced to cargoes arriving from late March to mid-April. Intraday, the SHFE/LME price ratio premium showed no significant fluctuations, and market transactions remained active. It was heard that a small volume of pyrometallurgy B/L arriving in late March was quoted at $50-60/mt, QP April; EQ B/L for late March and early April was offered at $35, and EQ B/L arriving in mid-to-late April was quoted at $35/mt, QP May. Ordinary ER copper warrants for delivery within this week were quoted at $50/mt, QP April.