Over the week of July 20-23, the weekly average price range for Yangshan copper premium B/L transactions stood at $104-111/mt, QP August, averaging $108/mt; warrant transactions averaged $105-115/mt, QP August, averaging $110/mt; and EQ copper CIF B/L was at $69-78/mt, QP August, averaging $73/mt. As of July 23, the SHFE/LME copper price ratio for the SHFE 2608 contract after excluding exchange rate was 1.1334, with an import loss of around 635.6 yuan/mt, widening by about 261 yuan/mt from the same period last week. As of Thursday, the LME copper August date shifted to a backwardation structure, with a carry spread of -$4.14/mt between the August and September dates. Currently, mainstream offers for pyrometallurgy-registered copper B/L are around $110-120/mt, while CIF B/L EQ copper mainstream offers are around $75-90/mt. Yangshan copper premiums showed a retreat-after-rapid-rise trend this week. At the start of the week, the market continued to price in the shortage of available supply. As the COMEX-LME price spread widened again, the North American siphoning effect strengthened, COMEX-registered brands were scarce, China's social inventory fell to a low level, and LME nearby contracts shifted to backwardation, sellers' offers kept surging. However, due to persistently unfavorable price ratios, offers pulled back towards the end of the week. Overall, the market grappled with tight supply and sluggish demand, resulting in low physical trading activity amid weak supply-demand conditions. According to SMM, as of Thursday, July 23, China's bonded zone copper inventory fell by 1,700 mt WoW from July 16 to 37,200 mt. Specifically, Shanghai bonded inventory fell by 1,500 mt WoW to 33,300 mt, while Guangdong bonded inventory fell by 200 mt WoW to 3,900 mt. The bonded zone inventory shifted from destocking to inventory buildup, mainly because some suppliers were optimistic about future premiums and price ratios, showing low willingness to sell, which reduced bonded zone warehouse withdrawals. Looking ahead, with US tariffs still pending and the siphoning effect persisting, the market is still trading the tight supply narrative. However, it is worth noting that LME cancelled warrants have increased continuously recently, with the ratio rising above 60%, mainly from US and Asian warehouses. According to SMM, some supply is being shipped to China and will arrive in a first round of concentrated arrivals in late July. Attention should be paid to this supply replenishment, which, combined with persistently inverted price ratios and softening downstream demand, could push the premium center to pull back.

[SMM Copper Social Inventory Flash] As of July 16, 2026, SMM social inventory of copper cathode in mainstream regions across China decreased by 41,600 mt WoW from the previous Thursday (July 9), falling to 123,400 mt. By region, in Shanghai and Jiangsu, affected by persistently tight arrivals from imported and domestic sources, inventories saw significant destocking; in Guangdong, arrivals declined, end-use consumption showed mediocre performance, the supply-demand pattern was weak on both sides, and inventories edged down.

This week (July 6 – July 9), the weekly average price range for Yangshan copper premium B/L transactions was $73–$87/mt, QP August, with an average price of $80/mt; the weekly average price range for warrant transactions was $74–$85/mt, QP August, with an average price of $80/mt; and EQ copper CIF B/L was at $43–$54/mt, QP August, with an average price of $49/mt. As of July 9, the forex-adjusted SHFE/LME copper price ratio for the SHFE copper 2607 contract against LME copper was 1.1406, with an import profit near 200.22 yuan/mt, compared to a loss of 163.35 yuan/mt in the previous period, with the arbitrage window open. As of Thursday, the front-end contango structure of LME copper widened, with the carry spread between the July date and August date at −$42.98/mt. Currently, mainstream offers for high-quality ER copper warrants are around $90–$100/mt, and mainstream offers for B/L are around $90–$100/mt; CIF B/L EQ copper traded around $50–$60/mt. This week, Yangshan copper premiums showed a rapid uptrend. The logic remained: low port arrivals from July to August led to persistently tight supply, giving suppliers strong sentiment to hold back from selling and hold prices firm, significantly lifting market offers and transaction centers. On the SHFE/LME price ratio side, the import price ratio swung from a loss to a profit, and downstream restocking actions occurred due to a typhoon. However, the rapid rise in premiums has caused current divergence between upstream and downstream players. Overall, limited available cargo, tight supply, and an open arbitrage window were the core drivers of this round's premium rise. According to the SMM survey, as of Thursday this week (July 9), China's bonded zone copper inventory decreased by about 4,400 mt MoM from the previous period (July 2) to 35,300 mt. Inventory in the Shanghai bonded zone was down 3,900 mt MoM to 31,900 mt, and in the Guangdong bonded zone, it was down 500 mt MoM to 3,400 mt. Bonded zone inventory destocked for a third consecutive week, consistent with shrinking port arrivals and tightening available cargo; the destocking pace widened from last week (a 1,300 mt decline), mainly due to low restocking into the bonded zone. Looking ahead, the pattern of tight arrivals from July to August continues to materialize, and supply-side support for premiums is likely to persist. Coupled with a rising import price ratio and a far-end shift to a backwardation structure, this is expected to continue giving suppliers confidence to hold prices firm. However, attention should be paid to whether current downstream actual consumption demand can support the sustained rise in premiums.

[SMM Copper Social Inventory Flash] As of July 9, 2026, SMM copper cathode social inventory in major regions across China fell by 34,900 mt WoW from last Thursday (July 2), a decrease of 17.46%, marking the largest single-week destocking since end-March. By region, Shanghai and Jiangsu saw sharp destocking as arrivals of imported and domestic cargo remained low, while downstream enterprises picked up goods intensively ahead of the approaching Typhoon Bavi (super typhoon), the 9th typhoon of the year; spot premiums continued to strengthen. In Guangdong, inventory also pulled back, as shipments were disrupted by flooding on some roads in Guangxi and arrivals declined.

【SMM Copper Inventory Flash】National mainstream copper cathode inventories recorded 207,400 mt, up 1,400 mt WoW from last Thursday, with regional trends diverging. Shanghai and Jiangsu continued destocking, supported by a pullback in copper prices and recovering downstream demand; in Guangdong, weak end-use demand, combined with a notable increase in arrivals, led to a sharp inventory buildup.

【SMM Copper Inventory Alert】Copper cathode inventories in mainstream regions across China accumulated slightly MoM. In the Shanghai market, the pullback in copper prices boosted downstream purchasing, causing inventories to shift from an increase to a decrease; in Jiangsu, the pullback in copper prices drove a recovery in end-use demand, and inventories declined in tandem; in Guangdong, mid-year downstream consumption slowed down, and smelters increased shipments into warehouses, resulting in a continued inventory buildup in the region.