SMM February 12 News: Data Review: As of Thursday, February 12, SMM's national mainstream copper inventories increased 5.3% WoW, with total inventory up 27,400 mt YoY. By region, Shanghai's copper cathode inventory saw significant buildup, as domestic supply continued to arrive and imported supply also concentrated at ports. Jiangsu inventory decreased slightly, driven by downstream enterprises' pre-holiday stockpiling and cargo pick-up. Guangdong inventory remained stable, with the market already entering holiday mode and only some domestic supply arriving. Looking ahead, supply side, the opening of the import arbitrage window is boosting arrivals of imported copper, while domestic supply arrivals are expected to decrease due to the approaching Chinese New Year. Demand side, with the Spring Festival holiday approaching, downstream enterprises are gradually entering a holiday pace, and end-use demand is weakening. Considering both supply and demand, copper market next week is expected to show normal supply and weaker consumption, with weekly inventories entering a buildup phase.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: LME copper opened at $13,025/mt overnight, initially dipped to $12,975/mt, then fluctuated upward and touched a high of $13,228/mt near the close, finally settling at $13,185/mt, up 0.96%, with trading volume reaching 15,200 lots and open interest at 327,000 lots, an increase of 2,466 lots from the previous session, overall showing a pattern of bulls increasing positions. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2603 opened at 101,740 yuan/mt overnight, touched a low of 101,280 yuan/mt at the beginning, then the center of copper prices gradually shifted upward and tested 102,500 yuan/mt, finally settling at 102,450 yuan/mt, up 0.93%, with trading volume reaching 41,800 lots and open interest at 165,000 lots, a decrease of 4,251 lots from the previous session, overall showing a pattern of bears reducing positions.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2603 contract opened at 89,660 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, copper prices tested the lower end at 89,030 yuan/mt. After the daytime session opened, prices rose to test the higher end at 91,020 yuan/mt, then fluctuated rangebound, and finally closed at 90,500 yuan/mt, up 0.19%. Open interest stood at 5,260 lots, down 315 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume was 6,126 lots, down 3,416 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, the US dollar index retreated from highs, while persistent geopolitical risks such as the US-Iran negotiation deadlock and escalating military standoff provided support for copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply remained loose as imported material continued to arrive. Demand side, demand was weak due to holidays at some downstream enterprises. In terms of inventory, as of Monday, February 9, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions across China increased 0.27% WoW. SHFE copper 2603 contract closed at 101,840 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2603 contract price of 90,500 yuan/mt, its after-tax price is 102,265 yuan/mt. The price spread between SHFE copper 2603 and BC copper was -425, remaining inverted and narrowing from the previous day.

SMM February 9 news: As of Monday, February 9, SMM's national mainstream copper inventories increased 0.27% WoW, but showed a destocking trend compared to last Thursday. Regional performances diverged, with only Shanghai avoiding inventory buildup, while all other mainstream regions experienced accumulation. Specifically, Shanghai's performance was particularly unusual, as destocking occurred even as the Chinese New Year holiday approached. The main reasons were last week's significant copper price correction boosting consumption, coupled with reduced arrivals of domestic supplies. Jiangsu's inventory rose due to increased arrivals of domestic copper. Guangdong also saw inventory buildup, primarily because more local enterprises began holidays, end-use consumption weakened, and warehouse arrivals increased simultaneously. Looking ahead, supply side, imported copper arrivals are expected to increase, while domestic copper arrivals remain stable, leading to ample overall market supply. Demand side, end-use demand is gradually weakening as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches. According to surveys, the weekly operating rate for copper cathode rod is projected to fall to 55.4% this week, down 13.67 percentage points WoW. Considering both supply and demand, the current market shows a "supply increment, marginally weakening consumption" supply-demand pattern, and social inventory is expected to accumulate this week.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: LME copper opened at $12,965/mt overnight, hitting an early high of $13,000/mt before its price center declined and touched a low of $12,783/mt, then maintained a "W" pattern, ultimately closing at $12,855/mt, down 1.42%. Trading volume reached 30,000 lots, an increase of 3,970 lots from the previous session; open interest stood at 324,000 lots, a decrease of 8,112 lots from the previous session, reflecting an overall reduction in long positions. The most-traded SHFE copper 2603 contract opened at 100,430 yuan/mt overnight, touching an early low of 98,550 yuan/mt before its center fluctuated upward to a high of 101,400 yuan/mt, ultimately closing at 101,130 yuan/mt, down 1.34%. Trading volume reached 105,000 lots, a decrease of 181,000 lots from the previous session; open interest stood at 179,000 lots, a decrease of 3,493 lots from the previous session, reflecting an overall reduction in long positions.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2603 contract opened at 92,010 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward initially to a high of 92,870 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward throughout the session. After the daytime session opened, it fluctuated downward again to a low of 89,210 yuan/mt, then fluctuated considerably before finally closing at 89,560 yuan/mt, down 3.75%. Open interest reached 5,803 lots, an increase of 179 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 8,929 lots, indicating an increase in bearish positions. From a macro perspective, on the macro front, US January ADP employment figures fell short of expectations, the labour market slowdown continued, and the US dollar index strengthened, putting downward pressure on copper prices. Meanwhile, LME copper inventories climbed to their highest level since March, and continued inventory accumulation further pressured copper prices. On the supply side, domestic copper supply arrivals increased, leading to relatively loose overall market supply. Demand side, affected by the approaching holiday, stockpiling sentiment among downstream enterprises gradually cooled, and end-use consumption remained weak. The SHFE copper 2603 contract closed at 100,980 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2603 contract price of 89,560 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is 101,202 yuan/mt, resulting in a price spread of -156 between the SHFE copper 2603 contract and BC copper. The spread remained inverted and continued to widen.