SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,604/mt, and amid wild swings at the beginning of the session, it dipped to a low of $13,590/mt. It then continued to swing wildly, rising to a high of $13,645/mt near the end of the session, and eventually closed at $13,644.5/mt, up 0.86%. Trading volume reached 15,600 lots, and open interest stood at 244,000 lots, down 1,039 lots from the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in bearish positions. Overnight the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 104,490 yuan/mt, and initially dipped to a low of 104,240 yuan/mt. It then drifted higher to touch a high of 104,680 yuan/mt, afterwards moving sideways, and finally settled at 104,480 yuan/mt, up 0.69%. Trading volume reached 33,800 lots, and open interest stood at 192,000 lots, up 1,706 lots from the previous trading day, indicating an increase in bullish positions.

SMM July 21 – Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,604/mt, swung wildly at the start and touched a low of $13,590/mt, then continued wild swings and near the close climbed to $13,645/mt, finally settling at $13,644.5/mt, up 0.86%. Trading volume reached 15,600 lots, and open interest stood at 244,000 lots, down 1,039 lots from the previous trading day, indicating short position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 104,490 yuan/mt, dipped to 104,240 yuan/mt shortly after opening, then drifted higher to touch a high of 104,680 yuan/mt, and later moved sideways. It eventually closed at 104,480 yuan/mt, up 0.69%. Trading volume reached 33,800 lots, and open interest stood at 192,000 lots, up 1,706 lots from the previous trading day, indicating long position addition. On the macro front, Iran said mediators proposed a 10-day US-Iran ceasefire to resume implementation of the memorandum of understanding, and it has received the proposal and indicated it may negotiate with the US based on national interests. The Houthis announced a maritime ban against Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia said it is taking military action to ensure shipping safety in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. US media reported that Trump is focused on making Iran "pay a price," but negotiations between the two countries continue. On the fundamentals side, supply side, available spot resources in China remained acutely tight, social inventory stayed at a low for the year, arrivals from cross-regional transfers were limited, and the tight spot situation is unlikely to ease in the short term. Demand side, the industry was in the traditional consumption off-season, downstream enterprises made sporadic need-to-basis purchases, and overall consumption was weak. Inventory side, as of Monday July 20, SMM copper inventories in major Chinese regions fell by 32,700 mt WoW to 107,300 mt. Continued destocking provided bottom support for copper prices. Overall, the tight supply and destocking trend continued, and copper prices are expected to drift higher today.

SMM, July 20: Data Summary: As of Monday, July 20, SMM copper inventories in major Chinese regions fell 32,700 mt WoW to 107,300 mt. Total inventories dropped 11,300 mt compared to 118,600 mt in the same period last year, with destocking observed across all regions. Specifically, Shanghai saw sustained destocking as domestic smelter maintenance has not fully concluded, dragging down domestic copper cathode arrivals, combined with fewer imported cargoes. Jiangsu was stable, with no significant inventory changes. In Guangdong, both supply and demand were sluggish; some spot cargoes flowed to east China markets, driving regional inventories lower in tandem. Market outlook: Supply side, arrivals of both imported and domestic copper cathode are unlikely to improve in the near term, keeping overall circulating supply tight; demand side, downstream performance remains weak during the off-season, limited to just-in-time procurement. Surveys indicate the copper cathode rod operating rate is expected to fall to 63.21% this week, down 1.89 percentage points WoW. Under the overall supply-demand pattern, with tight spot supply in China and insufficient downstream purchasing power, national copper cathode social inventory is expected to extend its destocking trend next week, though the pace of decline is likely to narrow.

SMM Analysis: Since late June, copper premiums cif China have been climbing. Spot premiums for registered copper arriving at China's ports from late July to August have recently breached triple digits, continuously setting new yearly highs...

SMM, July 17 – Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,615/mt, rose to touch a high of $13,630/mt in early trading, then drifted lower to $13,533/mt, and finally settled at $13,543.5/mt, down 0.28%. Trading volume was 12,000 lots, open interest reached 242,000 lots, down 2,906 lots from the previous trading day, indicating long liquidation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 104,200 yuan/mt, edged up to 104,550 yuan/mt in early trading, then drifted lower to touch a low of 104,100 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 104,230 yuan/mt, down 0.2%. Trading volume reached 13,000 lots, open interest reached 132,000 lots, down 1,191 lots from the previous trading day, indicating long liquidation. On the macro front, the US-Iran conflict continued to escalate. Iran claimed that the Strait of Hormuz would not be reopened due to US pressure, and the Revolutionary Guard warned that if the US makes a strategic mistake, regional energy exports could be disrupted. Reports said Iran had secretly ordered the Houthis to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the US strikes Iran’s power facilities. Meanwhile, the US military carried out airstrikes on airports and transport hubs inside Iran. The White House said Iran is still willing to talk, but there was no sign of a softening in Iran’s position. Overall, although Middle East tensions remain high, expectations of US economic resilience dominated short-term sentiment, and copper prices edged lower. On the fundamentals front, supply remained tight, with both imports and domestic output providing insufficient replenishment. Demand-side consumption was weak, and downstream users only made essential restocking purchases during the off-season. As of Thursday, July 16, SMM data showed that copper inventories in major Chinese markets fell by 41,600 mt WoW to 123,400 mt. Total inventories were 19,900 mt lower than the 143,300 mt recorded in the same period last year. Overall, copper prices are expected to drift slightly lower today.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,615/mt, initially rose to hit a high of $13,630/mt, then drifted lower to $13,533/mt, and finally closed at $13,543.5/mt, down 0.28%. Trading volume was 12,000 lots, open interest stood at 242,000 lots, down 2,906 lots from the previous trading day, indicating long liquidation. Overnight the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 104,200 yuan/mt, initially edged up to 104,550 yuan/mt, then drifted lower to touch a low of 104,100 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 104,230 yuan/mt, down 0.2%. Trading volume was 13,000 lots, open interest stood at 132,000 lots, down 1,191 lots from the previous trading day, indicating long liquidation.