SMM Analysis | June 30 marks a critical milestone in the U.S. Section 232 copper investigation. Will refined copper tariffs proceed as expected? Whether the outcome is a broad tariff, targeted measures, or a delay and exemption, the decision could reshape the COMEX–LME arbitrage, U.S. physical premiums, global copper trade flows, and regional supply dynamics.

In May, China's copper cathode imports rebounded to 282,300 mt, up 4.38% MoM and up 10.20% YoY. The continuous rebound in imports in May effectively alleviated the tight supply of some spot copper in China. However, from a longer-term perspective, cumulative imports from January to May stood at 1.1443 million mt, still down 15.69% YoY, reflecting a structural adjustment in the overall import flows of long-term contracts and spot cargo this year compared to previous years.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Stainless Steel Futures Extend Pullback, Spot Market Confidence Weakens SMM, June 10. SS futures are trending lower and probing downside. Dragged further by the overall weakness in nonferrous metals futures, SS futures extended their pullback. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,410 yuan/mt. In the spot market, affected by the successive declines in SS futures, the support level that the market had originally pinned hopes on at 14,500 yuan/mt was broken, after which market confidence weakened significantly. Traders’ willingness to sell and destock increased notably, low-priced cargoes frequently emerged in the market, buying interest was clearly insufficient, and overall transactions remained mediocre during the day. The most-traded SS futures contract declined and pulled back. At 10:15 am, SS2607 was reported at 14,395 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 575-1,225 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled raw-edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi fell 50 yuan/mt and in Foshan fell 25 yuan/mt; the price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was unchanged; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, the quotation in Wuxi fell 100 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. Stainless steel futures and spot experienced heightened volatility. The futures were first boosted then weighed down by macro news from outside China, and the off-season characteristics fully emerged. The industry holds vague expectations for the future market, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Transactions showed sporadic recoveries lacking sustainability, and selling pressure on traders mounted...

【SMM Steel】US President Trump signed a proclamation on June 1 further adjusting Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper imports, effective June 8 through Dec 31, 2027. Key changes include expanding the temporary 15% tariff to cover mobile industrial equipment (bulldozers, forklifts) while lowering rates on agricultural equipment from 25% to 15%. Two new derivative products—steel racks and aluminum lithographic plates—were added at 25% duty. The threshold for qualifying as "entirely" made from US-origin metals was lowered from 95% to 85%, allowing foreign companies to access a 10% rate on capital equipment meeting the requirement.

In April 2026, China's copper cathode import and export market exhibited a clear pattern of "rising imports and falling exports.

[Wire and Cable Imports] According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China's wire and cable imports in April 2026 were 12,000 mt, up 2.56% MoM and down 0.22% YoY. Cumulative wire and cable imports in 2026 were 43,000 mt, down 4.03% YoY on a cumulative basis. Among them, copper wire and cable imports were 3,900 mt, up 22.81% MoM and up 21.11% YoY. Cumulative copper wire and cable imports in 2026 were 12,000 mt, up 8.97% YoY on a cumulative basis. (Copper wire and cable HS codes: 85444921, 85444929, 85446012, 85446013, 85446014, 85446019, 85446090)