According to the latest data disclosed by the General Administration of Customs, China’s imported copper cathode market, while maintaining the 2025 baseline, is facing dual challenges: the continued rise in the share of EQ copper and whether global supply will continue to be diverted. China’s cumulative copper cathode imports in January-February 2026 totaled 356,900 mt, down 33.13% YoY.

Recent trends in Asian scrap copper markets are diverging: China’s Bare Bright copper import discount rate have climbed to 98%-98.5% due to tight tax-inclusive copper scrap supply, pushing Japanese quotes up by 1 percentage point to similar levels via strong market linkage. Conversely, South Korea remains stable at 97.5%-98% due to high domestic inventories level. According to feedback from local downstream enterprises, high domestic inventory levels mean current procurement discount rate are expected to remain unchanged through the second quarter,

According to data from China’s General Administration of Customs, China imported 316,000 tonnes of unwrought copper and copper products in February 2026. For the January–February period, cumulative imports of unwrought copper and copper products reached 700,000 tonnes, down 16.1% year-on-year, compared with 834,000 tonnes imported during the same period last year.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. Copper prices retreated today, while orders increased compared to the previous trading day, indicating that the current price level has become more attractive to end-user procurement, which may provide some support to spot premiums/discounts. In terms of market structure, SHFE copper imports turned from loss to profit, prompting importers to actively lock in the SHFE/LME price ratio. As a result, a significant amount of imported copper is expected to enter the domestic market ahead of the holiday. Meanwhile, the Contango spread between nearby contracts narrowed slightly, encouraging suppliers to increase spot sales, adding to short-term spot supply pressure. If copper prices fall further to lower levels, more sustained restocking demand may be triggered, at which point spot discounts could gradually stabilize.

After entering the SHFE copper 2507 contract period, spot suppliers will start quoting at premiums of 200-300 yuan/mt. However, sustained import pressure makes it difficult for suppliers to achieve high premiums. It is expected that spot premiums will be quoted high but sold low in the future, and market supply will remain relatively abundant.

[SMM Analysis] Having just experienced the contract rollover and delivery of the SHFE copper 2506 contract, aside from warrants matched for delivery, there are still tens of thousands of warrants that will be released in advance. Additionally, there have been concentrated arrivals of Russian copper supplies recently, so the overall market supply is not tight. After entering the SHFE copper 2507 contract, spot suppliers will start quoting prices at premiums of 200-300 yuan/mt. However, the continuous impact of imports makes it difficult for suppliers to achieve high premiums for their shipments. It is expected that spot premiums will be quoted high but will decline in the future market.